Bitcoin Forum
November 18, 2019, 11:00:05 AM *
News: Help collect the most notable posts made over the last 10 years.
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Poll
Question: When will we see a new ATH? (Credit to: Biodom)
2019 - 14 (8.4%)
Early 2020 - 38 (22.8%)
Late 2020 - 50 (29.9%)
Early 2021 - 15 (9%)
Late 2021 - 26 (15.6%)
2022 - 4 (2.4%)
2023 - 0 (0%)
2024 - 4 (2.4%)
After 2024 - 3 (1.8%)
Never - 13 (7.8%)
Total Voters: 167

Pages: « 1 ... 21172 21173 21174 21175 21176 21177 21178 21179 21180 21181 21182 21183 21184 21185 21186 21187 21188 21189 21190 21191 21192 21193 21194 21195 21196 21197 21198 21199 21200 21201 21202 21203 21204 21205 21206 21207 21208 21209 21210 21211 21212 21213 21214 21215 21216 21217 21218 21219 21220 21221 [21222] 21223 21224 21225 21226 21227 21228 21229 21230 21231 21232 21233 21234 21235 21236 21237 21238 21239 21240 21241 21242 21243 21244 21245 21246 21247 21248 21249 21250 21251 21252 21253 21254 21255 21256 21257 21258 21259 21260 21261 21262 21263 21264 21265 21266 21267 21268 21269 21270 21271 21272 ... 25438 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21433113 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (129 posts by 23 users deleted.)
ophyrim
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 938
Merit: 387


View Profile
September 18, 2018, 09:21:24 AM
Merited by HairyMaclairy (2), Wekkel (1), kurious (1)




CNBC Reverse Bitcoin Price Indicator - pump incoming?

You can also use this website to understand the dip and the top of the price

https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

1 means max. fear
100 means max. greed.

For ex. look at the 6th of February. the index point is 8. very close to max. fear (which is 1) and the BTC was at the dip. at the 7th of February the trend change.
21th of February. The index point is 74 close to max greed. the price is at the top. At the 22th of February the trend change.
1574074805
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1574074805

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1574074805
Reply with quote  #2

1574074805
Report to moderator
1574074805
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1574074805

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1574074805
Reply with quote  #2

1574074805
Report to moderator
The Bitcoin Forum is turning 10 years old! Join the community in sharing and exploring the notable posts made over the years.
1574074805
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1574074805

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1574074805
Reply with quote  #2

1574074805
Report to moderator
toknormal
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2072
Merit: 1159


View Profile
September 18, 2018, 09:32:03 AM
Last edit: September 18, 2018, 10:07:59 AM by toknormal
Merited by bones261 (4), BobLawblaw (4), dbshck (3), HairyMaclairy (2), Wekkel (1), Majormax (1), Torque (1), kurious (1), infofront (1), rolling (1), RejectedBanana (1)

I read on whalepool that shorts were ATH again.  Haven't bothered checking it for myself yet.  

How much can the tail wag the dog ?

It's interesting to watch the relationship between the bitcoin cash settled markets and the spot market. Many observers - mainly gold trader pundits - are assuming that the derivative markets will "control" the spot market in Bitcoin the way it does in gold. However, I think it should not be as simple as that, at least in theory.

The main reason this happens in gold is because the underlying asset's inability to "travel through wires" has forced almost comprehensive decoupling of the two fundamental aspects of the trade - ownership and posession. In gold, only ownership is traded which means almost the ENTIRE volume is accounted for by the paper market and there's very little "anchor" in the physical because nobody actually takes posession. (Why would they). Even people who say they hold "physical" gold don't really. They hold custodial contracts which are not much better than a futures contract.

The question is: how much can the bitcoin cash settled markets influence the spot market ? That is the question.

The margin-traded derivatives markets such as CME and CBOE can make money on the way up as well as the way down. They don't care which direction the price goes in. On the other hand, the spot market generally does since "hodlers" are always long. If we look at the last 6 months trading at the longer ranges we can see how margin trading has "milked the bubble in the spot market. It blew the bubble in the latter half of 2017, then burst it right when the cash-settled markets opened, then "milked it in a zig-zag pattern on the way down.



The limits of the margin traded rollercoaster

However look what's happening over time. The amplitude of the zig-zag is waning. There's less mileage in margin trading with every drop. Also, it's settling right at the level "Wall Street" had accumulated to at the opening of the futures markets late last year. As far as I can see, this means that recourse to the spot market is going to be required once again to repeat this process and indeed we can see accumulation going on if we "look through" the price trace to the underlying volume pattern which has been to the upside almost since last March.


OBV contrary indication when compared with price trace EMA

Returning to the comparison with precious metals and the question of how "anchored" the underlying asset is compared with its derivative trading, as far as I can tell, around 0.5% (90k BTC) of the bitcoin supply actually moves each day. To match this, around 1000 Tones of gold would have to be physically traded. i.e. not just ownership is exchanged but possession as well. That's $42 Billion of gold.

Given that around $200 Billion is not an unusual daily traded volume, I doubt the physical movements would be anywhere near the $42B.

That's why I don't think the Bitcoin cash settled markets have anywhere near the influence over the spot price that we think they have and certainly not the same influence that gold derivatives markets have over their underlying asset price.

Another way to look at it is simply how much the market devalues a monetary asset based on its sub-optimal monetary properties - one of which is mobility (physical liquidity). With precious metals, their inability to travel through wires has lead to a decoupling of the paper market from the physical in the sense that possession and ownership are traded independently of each other. That in turn has lead to a devaluation and sub-optimal performance of the asset in its traditional role - hedging against inflation of the fiat monetary base for example.

Liberating the "Underlying"

Crypto, on the other hand is liquid in electronic markets. A far higher portion of the coin supply is traded in the sense of possession remaining with ownership. This puts cash-settled markets at a disadvantage because they are "outside the loop"in a way that they aren't with gold.



How is this Possible ?

It basically comes down to the feature widely known as "public-private key cryptology". If we superimpose the model of bitcoin on gold, both public and private keys are co-incident. That means we need custodial services because gold hodlers cannot allow the metal to leave their posession and still retain control over it.

With public-private key cryptology, a cryptographic asset can be allowed to sit "out there" while retaining mobility, resistance to counterfeit and still be under the control of the owner. Public and private keys are decoupled. That is the huge advantage in value that Bitcoin has as a monetary asset over precious metals. It's also the property that gives it far greater resistance to the kind of manipulation from derivatives markets that we see in PM'S.
kirreev070
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 406
Merit: 272



View Profile
September 18, 2018, 10:06:25 AM

Majormax
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2198
Merit: 1079


View Profile WWW
September 18, 2018, 10:08:30 AM


Crypto, on the other hand is liquid in electronic markets. A far higher portion of the coin supply is traded in the sense of possession remaining with ownership. This puts cash-settled markets at a disadvantage because they are "outside the loop"in a way that they aren't with gold.



How is this Possible ?
It basically comes down to the feature widely known as "public-private key cryptology". If we superimpose the model of bitcoin on gold, both public and private keys are co-incident. That means we need custodial services because gold hodlers cannot allow the metal to leave their posession and still retain control over it.

With public-private key cryptology, a cryptographic asset can be allowed to sit "out there" while retaining mobility, resistance to counterfeit and be under the control of the owner. That is the huge advantage in value that Bitcoin has as a monetary asset over precious metals. It's also the property that gives it far greater resistance to the kind of manipulation from derivatives markets that we see in PM'S.


This is the key to the attractiveness of digital currency.  The downside is that an owner has to take responsibility for their own security.

With a custodial service, there is an insurance/assurance that the registered owner cannot have the asset stolen, without compensation from the custodian. Disenfranchisement can only come from the contract terms, or failure of the custodian.
micgoossens
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 868
Merit: 2864


O, 5-digits where art thou


View Profile
September 18, 2018, 10:26:51 AM
Last edit: September 18, 2018, 10:51:35 AM by micgoossens

Just so we all have our math clear, $100 down to $10 then back up to $100 is -90% followed by +900%. 



good view hairy.... good math  Wink
micgoossens
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 868
Merit: 2864


O, 5-digits where art thou


View Profile
September 18, 2018, 10:46:21 AM



just read this funny post .... a guy said time to buy the fucking dip!!

repeatedly saying this while contnuously smashing my head against the wall .......

haha i think many actualy telling and posting to BTFD's etc but really don't act themselves (just posting to get a good feeling or something)
 Grin .  some of the post are hilarious
withlove99
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 336
Merit: 29


View Profile
September 18, 2018, 11:05:08 AM



Scenario for a positive trend, early October. Specifically 03/10 - 05/10 set the peak $9000/1BTC

This scenario is feasible when BTC passes $7200 and has a stable btc around $5800 - $6000


What is the opinion of people?

This is a chart I have identify over a month ago, and now is in the middle of September. Current BTC price is above $6000
So this prediction could happen in October next?
Everyone please give your opinion?
Totscha
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1184
Merit: 605



View Profile
September 18, 2018, 11:17:13 AM

EOS is on the edge
placed right on the bottom trendline + H&S


micgoossens
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 868
Merit: 2864


O, 5-digits where art thou


View Profile
September 18, 2018, 11:23:23 AM
Merited by bones261 (2), LFC_Bitcoin (1), mindrust (1)

GOOD POINT



AND @ THE MEANTIME


xhomerx10
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2198
Merit: 2392


Aceeasi Marie cu alta palarie


View Profile
September 18, 2018, 11:25:07 AM



Scenario for a positive trend, early October. Specifically 03/10 - 05/10 set the peak $9000/1BTC

This scenario is feasible when BTC passes $7200 and has a stable btc around $5800 - $6000


What is the opinion of people?

This is a chart I have identify over a month ago, and now is in the middle of September. Current BTC price is above $6000
So this prediction could happen in October next?
Everyone please give your opinion?

 I don't know why they call it the bat/butterfly/crab; I only ever see bikini tops.


micgoossens
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 868
Merit: 2864


O, 5-digits where art thou


View Profile
September 18, 2018, 11:47:18 AM

12288 getting shorter and shorter

08/09/2018 xhomerx10 Sad
09/09/2018 vapourminer Sad
11/09/2018 Dakustaking76 Sad
20/09/2018 Digigami
22/09/2018 Agapios
26/09/2018 itod
30/09/2018 DeathAngel
12/10/2018 IntroVert
15/10/2018 explorer
18/10/2018 Searing
26/10/2018 kurious
09/11/2018 fabiorem
15/11/2018 bitserve
20/11/2018 Globb0
22/11/2018 Last of the V8s
01/12/2018 Alexander_Z
07/03/2019 CoinCube
15/04/2019 Spaceman_Spiff_Original
20/06/2019 bitebits
13/12/2019 nikauforest
10/04/2020 yefi
05/09/2020 samson   
23/06/2021 fortune143             

this list getting REKT as well pffff time to get some action  Roll Eyes

and another one bites the dust who's the favorite on this one ??        really don't know where i would think the winner stands in here maybe bitserve, globbo, V8 range.... don't let it be yefi or samson or fortune143 for the SMALL 12k price to hit  Roll Eyes what a boring time would that be

Torque
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1974
Merit: 1521



View Profile
September 18, 2018, 11:53:44 AM

With public-private key cryptology, a cryptographic asset can be allowed to sit "out there" while retaining mobility, resistance to counterfeit and still be under the control of the owner. Public and private keys are decoupled. That is the huge advantage in value that Bitcoin has as a monetary asset over precious metals. It's also the property that gives it far greater resistance to the kind of manipulation from derivatives markets that we see in PM'S.

Agreed, and I think this feature of Bitcoin is why it is both admired and loathed by Wall Street.

1. Admired for precisely the reason that you described, as some welcome such an asset to be non-gamable or game-resistant unlike the derivatives markets (e.g., fake futures contracts, wash trades with non-existent shares, phantom "shares", rehypothecation of shares, HFT, etc.)

2. Loathed for all the same reasons. The SEC can't control all of the crypto exchanges and their behavior. Wall Street cannot game the system like they have with equities and commodities. I believe that this is precisely the reason that the SEC is dragging their feet on approving Bitcoin ETFs. It has nothing to do with "protecting the public", and everything to do with protecting Wall Street from itself. Under the table Wall Street is expecting the SEC to bend the rules of Bitcoin to benefit them, but the rules are unbendable... and I think the SEC realizes this. So it's just easier for them to shoot down all ETF approvals, at least for now.
LFC_Bitcoin
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1890
Merit: 2255


One of the world's leading Bitcoin-powered casinos


View Profile
September 18, 2018, 11:58:54 AM

GOOD POINT



AND @ THE MEANTIME




Saw that film again the other day. The two strippers are nice Grin
toknormal
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2072
Merit: 1159


View Profile
September 18, 2018, 12:28:03 PM


BTC/USD reverse Bart Sibrel manoeuvre in progress.
Bitcoinaire
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 599
Merit: 371



View Profile
September 18, 2018, 12:33:22 PM

Thats a nice pop, more of the same price action. This feels like the accumulation zone, we'll see.
Hueristic
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2170
Merit: 1282


Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it


View Profile
September 18, 2018, 12:35:31 PM

With public-private key cryptology, a cryptographic asset can be allowed to sit "out there" while retaining mobility, resistance to counterfeit and still be under the control of the owner. Public and private keys are decoupled. That is the huge advantage in value that Bitcoin has as a monetary asset over precious metals. It's also the property that gives it far greater resistance to the kind of manipulation from derivatives markets that we see in PM'S.

Agreed, and I think this feature of Bitcoin is why it is both admired and loathed by Wall Street.

1. Admired for precisely the reason that you described, as some welcome such an asset to be non-gamable or game-resistant unlike the derivatives markets (e.g., fake futures contracts, wash trades with non-existent shares, phantom "shares", rehypothecation of shares, HFT, etc.)

2. Loathed for all the same reasons. The SEC can't control all of the crypto exchanges and their behavior. Wall Street cannot game the system like they have with equities and commodities. I believe that this is precisely the reason that the SEC is dragging their feet on approving Bitcoin ETFs. It has nothing to do with "protecting the public", and everything to do with protecting Wall Street from itself. Under the table Wall Street is expecting the SEC to bend the rules of Bitcoin to benefit them, but the rules are unbendable... and I think the SEC realizes this. So it's just easier for them to shoot down all ETF approvals, at least for now.

I don't doubt this for a second. But I also don't doubt they have managed to game the system somewhere (Tether comes to mind). It's obvious they have control of the media.


Deeyoh
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 258
Merit: 14


View Profile
September 18, 2018, 12:43:05 PM

Another 2 week grind up and 1 day dump to same level?   I know I'll get caught one of these days with my trade stash.  It's so easy now to just wait for price to grind up.. start selling then wait for the dump.    

Been doing this for awhile and damn I have 3 times the btc I started with in my trade stash.  This can't happen for to long I suppose.. if I'm accumulating then I know someone else is too on a much grander scale.  They have to be cleaning the hell up.
HairyMaclairy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1008
Merit: 1648


Degenerate bull hatter & Bitcoin monotheist


View Profile
September 18, 2018, 12:55:52 PM

Welp there’s your ATH shorts getting rekt.  This is shit is Groundhog Day.
micgoossens
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 868
Merit: 2864


O, 5-digits where art thou


View Profile
September 18, 2018, 01:02:28 PM

GOOD POINT



AND @ THE MEANTIME




Saw that film again the other day. The two strippers are nice Grin

for a good laugh i really love the amrican pie series , sometimes the school times where good  Grin

and i think this evening you and me probably gonna watch the same thing  Shocked  Grin what a good game will it be  Cheesy
Phil_S
Sr. Member
****
Online Online

Activity: 868
Merit: 332


We choose to go to the moon


View Profile
September 18, 2018, 01:11:22 PM

Going back to $6500 ?
Pages: « 1 ... 21172 21173 21174 21175 21176 21177 21178 21179 21180 21181 21182 21183 21184 21185 21186 21187 21188 21189 21190 21191 21192 21193 21194 21195 21196 21197 21198 21199 21200 21201 21202 21203 21204 21205 21206 21207 21208 21209 21210 21211 21212 21213 21214 21215 21216 21217 21218 21219 21220 21221 [21222] 21223 21224 21225 21226 21227 21228 21229 21230 21231 21232 21233 21234 21235 21236 21237 21238 21239 21240 21241 21242 21243 21244 21245 21246 21247 21248 21249 21250 21251 21252 21253 21254 21255 21256 21257 21258 21259 21260 21261 21262 21263 21264 21265 21266 21267 21268 21269 21270 21271 21272 ... 25438 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!