Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

This is bad.

Very bad.

EDIT: Remember how I said I need(want) to dump $1M USD more before December 31st 2018 ?

Yeah. LOL at that idea now.

Sheeeeeeeeit.

You are the reason why we cannot have nice things.     

[somac.]

well its still looking like a disaster out there. No solid bounce.

I'm wondering what were the reasons for the bottoming period in 2014/15. I always thought it might of been that the mining costs at the time made a floor at that price, but I never looked into it. Does anyone know if the mining price was around the 200 level in 2014/15?

Bitstamp getting hacked caused the $150 bottom in 2015. At that time it was the biggest exchange.

I don't mean the specific bottom, I mean the time when it was moving between 200-300, what kept it falling further? was it just no more sellers, the miners stopped selling, or more buyers coming into the market?

[El duderino_]

This is bad.

Very bad.

EDIT: Remember how I said I need(want) to dump $1M USD more before December 31st 2018 ?

Yeah. LOL at that idea now.

Sheeeeeeeeit.

You are the reason why we cannot have nice things.     

??

[realr0ach]

Bitstamp getting hacked caused the $150 bottom in 2015. At that time it was the biggest exchange.

The Bitstamp hack was mostly a non-event at the time IMO.  Although I'm hesitant to believe any of these exchange hack claims.  Wasn't that the one where they claimed they were "hacked" by some guy calling on the phone?  I mean...seriously...come on....

[eddie13]

I'm wondering what were the reasons for the bottoming period in 2014/15. I always thought it might of been that the mining costs at the time made a floor at that price, but I never looked into it. Does anyone know if the mining price was around the 200 level in 2014/15?

The bottom in October 2015 was actively fished for with bear raids.  It wasn't really much to do with cost of production seeing as how bitcoin cost of production is completely variable.  It was really pounded into the ground hard to try and find it.  Nothing like you saw then is occurring right now.  It was stable sideways, pounded into the floor, then instant rebound.  There's absolutely no springboard effect rebounds going on on this shit nowadays.

Too soon..

[Last of the V8s]

sure i saw a post about hairy models, but where is it?

[somac.]

I'm wondering what were the reasons for the bottoming period in 2014/15. I always thought it might of been that the mining costs at the time made a floor at that price, but I never looked into it. Does anyone know if the mining price was around the 200 level in 2014/15?

The bottom in October 2015 was actively fished for with bear raids.  It wasn't really much to do with cost of production seeing as how bitcoin cost of production is completely variable.  It was really pounded into the ground hard to try and find it.  Nothing like you saw then is occurring right now.  It was stable sideways, pounded into the floor, then instant rebound.  There's absolutely no springboard effect rebounds going on on this shit nowadays.

Too soon..

So you think it still has further to go before a similar market will develop?

[eddie13]

So you think it still has further to go before a similar market will develop?

I think it's too soon to tell if their will be a bounce like he said their wasn't.
I think it could hit as low as 3k and we will still be on our way to another moon shot to $100k.
I expect the pattern after $1200 to repeat itself, but likely with less dead time from this bottom to the next pump.
If it goes below $3k much I may feel the pattern of successive pumps may be over, maybe $2500.

[JayJuanGee]

Why the hell isn't XRP tanking like others?

Because, it is truly the next bitcoin.

[somac.]

So you think it still has further to go before a similar market will develop?

I think it's too soon to tell if their will be a bounce like he said their wasn't.
I think it could hit as low as 3k and we will still be on our way to another moon shot to $100k.
I expect the pattern after $1200 to repeat itself, but likely with less dead time from this bottom to the next pump.
If it goes below $3k much I may feel the pattern of successive pumps may be over, maybe $2500.

the pattern of successive pumps ending is my fear too. I figured it wouldn't due to the halvenings and the fact that the legacy financial system is so fucked up. Therefore, eventually there will be a consistent move into btc.

I hate doubting btc, I did the same thing in 2014/15 and I am starting to do it again now.

[yefi]

Let's get this shit done with some good old fashioned merit abuse.

Legendary merit drop!

Respect.

[Torque]

Hey quick, someone get Novogratz on the phone!

I think we need another (3rd?) bottom call, lol.  

[d_eddie]

I believe BCH was the main catalyst at least. But by no means the only factor.

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

My conclusion and prediction:

-
-
-
 Not a good sign.

I have no idea how this unwinds.  But that won't stop me from speculating.

A.
B.
I give A/B chances at 65/35 for fundamental reasons.  This is not 2014.  A lot of smart rich people have figured out exactly what bitcoin is this time around.

(Dear Lord... I feel like I turned into JJG)

Get the fuck out of here with this apparent pretense of being using some kind of self-defined wordy prose just to be able to claim any kind of pretense at being in the vicinity JJG-ness within 63.5-72.2%. Even using numbers and probability. Tsk.

[realr0ach]

Hey quick, someone get Novogratz on the phone!

I think we need another (3rd?) bottom call, lol.  

He was probably the main person dumping while tweeting it's the bottom.

[PoolMinor]

Why the hell isn't XRP tanking like others?

Because, it is truly the next bitcoin.

Because they created 100 Billion of them but only distributed 40 billion. Lots of centralization and not mine-able.

[somac.]

Why the hell isn't XRP tanking like others?

Because, it is truly the next bitcoin.

Because they created 100 Billion of them but only distributed 40 billion. Lots of centralization and not mine-able.

Every now and again I consider changing what is my most hated shitcoin. But ripple always maintains the title.

[JayJuanGee]

At least no one is saying to buy the dip... Not sure if that is good or bad though.

They are not?

You believe that we are in a falling knife situation?

There are probably several of us who participate in this thread who have engaged in plenty of attempts to catch the falling knife that don't seem to work very well in the short-run, but in the longer run, they have tended to pay off.

Even if we go down from here, as I type, we are still more than 18x up from our largely $250 price floating point from 2015.

Even if the value of the BTC portfolio of many of us is likely less than 18x up, we are still in  a not too bad place.

I am still buying the dip... but I am starting to feel a little bit like how I felt in September 2017... remember when the BTC price dropped below $3k, and such price drop seemed to have gone below $3k quite rapidly and beyond expectations.

Gosh, gosh, gosh.  $3k possible again, or would a drop below $5k cause a similar feeling as the drop in september 2017?

[JayJuanGee]

I am newbie but really love to be involved here for perspective of learning as I have too much information and understanding from here no other thread providing this with fun and enjoy  

Welcome!!!!


Do you have any BTC or plans to buy? 

Do you trade BTC or plan to merely HODL or SODL?

Do you love any of the alts (I mean shit coins)?

Provide us some context. 

Which parts of this thread is interesting: substantive discussions, the troll posts or something else?  hahahahhahaa

[marcus_of_augustus]

buying the dips is for noobs, short-termers and suckers ...

... round here we accumulate bottoms ...
 
and hats.

[goldkingcoiner]

At least no one is saying to buy the dip... Not sure if that is good or bad though.

They are not?

You believe that we are in a falling knife situation?

There are probably several of us who participate in this thread who have engaged in plenty of attempts to catch the falling knife that don't seem to work very well in the short-run, but in the longer run, they have tended to pay off.

Even if we go down from here, as I type, we are still more than 18x up from our largely $250 price floating point from 2015.

Even if the value of the BTC portfolio of many of us is likely less than 18x up, we are still in  a not too bad place.

I am still buying the dip... but I am starting to feel a little bit like how I felt in September 2017... remember when the BTC price dropped below $3k, and such price drop seemed to have gone below $3k quite rapidly and beyond expectations.

Gosh, gosh, gosh.  $3k possible again, or would a drop below $5k cause a similar feeling as the drop in september 2017?

The falling knife is usually caught quickly. We have been lingering at the bottom of the dip for too long. Too suspicious. Waiting for the CCI to get into the positive. Choppiness index and BB are my favorite reliable indicators for breakouts. And both are pointing south. Not good. Bull traps ahead.