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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26391248 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
d_eddie
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November 21, 2018, 12:32:25 AM

Chocolate would likely make me wary, quality or not.
Lasagne... uh. No red stuff, either, darling, thanks though.
I guess it's down to different strokes.

I would have to be there to see the chef make it and insert, plus her promise not to add any 'special sauce'.
No tunafish lasagne!
centralbanksequalsbombs
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November 21, 2018, 12:39:54 AM
Merited by Hueristic (1), fabiorem (1), nanobtc (1)

The biggest catalyst that'd make BTC price skyrocket higher is simply move all your BTC to your PERSONAL bitcoin wallet (move off of Coinbase, Binance, Bitfinex, Square, Robinhood, CBOE/CME futures).

Fractional reserve, BTC lending, rehypothication is a bitch and can perpetually create no floor for prices by establishment market manipulators.

Plus if history is any indication, one these avenues will blow up and wreck the "holders" of bitcoin that really wasn't there because they failed to take such advice.

Take it off the exchanges and see what happens.
d_eddie
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November 21, 2018, 12:40:58 AM

This stock market rout is all for show.

I predict all markets will rally hard in early 2019.

And Bitcoin along with it.
what are youre short-middle term BTC thoughts? Roll Eyes

A scary spike down before year end is not out of the question. Although they better get it done soon, as a relief rally next year in the markets will float all boats.
I hope you're right, Torque.
lightfoot
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November 21, 2018, 12:41:14 AM

So if you need something to lull you to sleep, I'd recommend this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9fWr9H6J1NQ

10 hours of a screaming sun from Rick and Morty.

Sweet dreams!

El duderino_
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November 21, 2018, 12:44:14 AM

^
Good thx going to sleep .......Grin

Good right into a small green stick

Mmm red already .... f*** still sleep time

Good night WO’s
fabiorem
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November 21, 2018, 12:44:26 AM

The biggest catalyst that'd make BTC price skyrocket higher is simply move all your BTC to your PERSONAL bitcoin wallet (move off of Coinbase, Binance, Bitfinex, Square, Robinhood, CBOE/CME futures).

Fractional reserve, BTC lending, rehypothication is a bitch and can perpetually create no floor for prices by establishment market manipulators.

Plus if history is any indication, one these avenues will blow up and wreck the "holders" of bitcoin that really wasn't there because they failed to take such advice.

Take it off the exchanges and see what happens.


Underrated post.

JayJuanGee
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November 21, 2018, 12:50:34 AM
Merited by FractalUniverse (1)




what if the real manipulation was not on USDT exchanges?

A Bullish Crab is close to forming on all the tether exchanges.  Makes me wonder a little bit, why do we trust the non tether exchanges, they can manipulate just as easy?  Maybe the tether exchanges are more close to an honest price.  

Or am i not understanding something?

My post will allow your earlier linked image to be seen (above )
(Edit - although Ludwig Von beat me to it.. hahahahaha).

Maybe you should explain a bit more about what you are getting at, exactly, because for several months there had been decent BTC price variance (premium) on USD tether based exchanges ranging between $50 and $250.   Currently that premium is in the $200 area, but a day or two ago it had gotten below $100 for a while.. so I still don't seem to understand your point, exactly?    

How much do we really care about "true" BTC price anyhow?   We have some folks taking advantage of arbitrage opportunities, and we have FUD thrown around about tether, and surely the introduction of "stable coins" is not going to really resolve any of this any time soon, is it?  

Surely, an additional factor is that a lot of folks tend to use Bitstamp as our price reference point for other reasons as well, including that bitstamp does not engaged in margin trading...

sorry for my english.  i am happy you chose the example of bitstamp.

I try to explain harmonic patterns appear on USDT exchanges much more regularly than on a place similar to bitstamp.additionally bitstamp is lower price than a bitcoin live sell exchance such as cex.io.  how can this be?  if harmonics are the purest form of Fibonacci numbers in trading then this suggests that tether trades fit a more natural organic pattern. 

bitstamp for my experice is a good example.  it is higher in bull times, and lower in bear times, suggesting the manipulation is there not with usdt.    When harmonic patterns show on tether echanges, especaily bitstamp will behave almost opersite to the expected result of fibbonacci harmonic patterns.  this is why the price flutuates between supposed usd and usdt, and additionally why bitstamp is lower than cex.io. 

I believe that bitstamp especally is price manipulating, either a alorthim program, the exchange or one or many traders.   you can also see the bitstam orderbook is not behaving normally.

It seems to me that you are attempting to find exact explanations for events that might not be exactly explanable.

There are a lot of exchanges, and larger whales are frequently going to attempt to play on exchanges that they believe are price leaders; however, since there are so many exchanges, sometimes one kind of exchange (whether USD or USD Tether connected) might end up leading momentum. 

Sometimes the lead and the manipulation works, and sometimes it does not.  Of course, there are people who attempt to study these kinds of phenomenon, but these types of phenomenon don't always tell you which way the BTC price is going to go with any certainty. 

Sometimes pumped exchanges will be out of wack for a while, and then after a few hours, or sometimes days or sometimes weeks, might come back in alignment.

Another factor that affects differences of prices on one exchange versus another has to do with how easy it might be to get fiat in or out of the exchange. 

Of course, there are conclusions that you can specifically make about the value of USD tether and whether the USD tether is sufficiently backed up or whether they have legal turmoils that could undermine their value, relative to actual USD or some USD stable coin.

In the end, the question becomes what are you attempting to conclude from your analysis of BTC price differences on exchanges?  Are you trying to predict the direction of the BTC price?  Are you trying to predict if BTC price has bottomed? 

In fact, you might look at a variety of exchanges and come to a kind of tentative conclusion about what you think is going on, but if you want to present the facts here (in this thread), then for sake of clarity (not to confuse anyone) it is better to refer to the bitstamp price dynamics and if you want to specify what kind of price action is going on some other exchange then either specify which exchange(s) you are referring to or compare the referred to exchange to what is going on on bitstamp in order to attempt to make your point clearly about what you are trying to prove or predict with the information that you are presenting.

Sometimes it can be difficult to make any kind of meaningful short term conclusions, especially when the BTC price is moving a lot, and of course, sometimes posters will look at a variety of exchanges and compare BTC price actions and trade volumes on the various exchanges in order to attempt to assess or predict, yet a tentative conclusion that you might make at one point in time, may change at another point in time, because the BTC price dynamics are surely fluid and affected by a lot of factors besides differences in exchanges, momentum, manipulation and even, sometimes, non-BTC trading pairs...

Yet, this thread attempts to focus more on the USD to BTC trading pair.

I still don't really understand what purpose it would achieve to conclude about "true" BTC price as you seemed to had been attempting to figure that out? 
QuestionAuthority
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November 21, 2018, 12:52:12 AM

The biggest catalyst that'd make BTC price skyrocket higher is simply move all your BTC to your PERSONAL bitcoin wallet (move off of Coinbase, Binance, Bitfinex, Square, Robinhood, CBOE/CME futures).

Fractional reserve, BTC lending, rehypothication is a bitch and can perpetually create no floor for prices by establishment market manipulators.

Plus if history is any indication, one these avenues will blow up and wreck the "holders" of bitcoin that really wasn't there because they failed to take such advice.

Take it off the exchanges and see what happens.


Underrated post.


Agreed!
El duderino_
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November 21, 2018, 12:53:19 AM

via Imgflip Meme Generator
JayJuanGee
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November 21, 2018, 12:54:26 AM

Did you guys hear about this one weird trick to make a small fortune in bitcoin?  Start with a large fortune in bitcoin.


That works in PMs too.   Wink
El duderino_
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November 21, 2018, 12:56:02 AM




what if the real manipulation was not on USDT exchanges?

A Bullish Crab is close to forming on all the tether exchanges.  Makes me wonder a little bit, why do we trust the non tether exchanges, they can manipulate just as easy?  Maybe the tether exchanges are more close to an honest price.  

Or am i not understanding something?

My post will allow your earlier linked image to be seen (above )
(Edit - although Ludwig Von beat me to it.. hahahahaha).

Maybe you should explain a bit more about what you are getting at, exactly, because for several months there had been decent BTC price variance (premium) on USD tether based exchanges ranging between $50 and $250.   Currently that premium is in the $200 area, but a day or two ago it had gotten below $100 for a while.. so I still don't seem to understand your point, exactly?    

How much do we really care about "true" BTC price anyhow?   We have some folks taking advantage of arbitrage opportunities, and we have FUD thrown around about tether, and surely the introduction of "stable coins" is not going to really resolve any of this any time soon, is it?  

Surely, an additional factor is that a lot of folks tend to use Bitstamp as our price reference point for other reasons as well, including that bitstamp does not engaged in margin trading...

sorry for my english.  i am happy you chose the example of bitstamp.

I try to explain harmonic patterns appear on USDT exchanges much more regularly than on a place similar to bitstamp.additionally bitstamp is lower price than a bitcoin live sell exchance such as cex.io.  how can this be?  if harmonics are the purest form of Fibonacci numbers in trading then this suggests that tether trades fit a more natural organic pattern. 

bitstamp for my experice is a good example.  it is higher in bull times, and lower in bear times, suggesting the manipulation is there not with usdt.    When harmonic patterns show on tether echanges, especaily bitstamp will behave almost opersite to the expected result of fibbonacci harmonic patterns.  this is why the price flutuates between supposed usd and usdt, and additionally why bitstamp is lower than cex.io. 

I believe that bitstamp especally is price manipulating, either a alorthim program, the exchange or one or many traders.   you can also see the bitstam orderbook is not behaving normally.
~
Mmmm Maybe its you that got a team of folks around yourself
Writing those short posts? Roll Eyes
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November 21, 2018, 01:00:53 AM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (1), El duderino_ (1), BobLawblaw (1)

JJG doesn’t write posts. He sits and yells into a text to speech microphone. No one would ever type that much without being forced (like in school).
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November 21, 2018, 01:03:41 AM
Last edit: November 21, 2018, 01:20:50 AM by JayJuanGee

[edited out]
Mmmm Maybe its you that got a team of folks around yourself
Writing those short posts? Roll Eyes

No need to become so defensive, micteamate(s), merely because I got you pegged.

There are plenty of forum members who actually believe your online persona storyline, so who gives a shit what I have tentatively concluded through already presented information?
centralbanksequalsbombs
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November 21, 2018, 01:04:35 AM

The biggest catalyst that'd make BTC price skyrocket higher is simply move all your BTC to your PERSONAL bitcoin wallet (move off of Coinbase, Binance, Bitfinex, Square, Robinhood, CBOE/CME futures).

Fractional reserve, BTC lending, rehypothication is a bitch and can perpetually create no floor for prices by establishment market manipulators.

Plus if history is any indication, one these avenues will blow up and wreck the "holders" of bitcoin that really wasn't there because they failed to take such advice.

Take it off the exchanges and see what happens.


Underrated post.


Agreed!

Thank you both.
centralbanksequalsbombs
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November 21, 2018, 01:05:42 AM

JJG doesn’t write posts. He sits and yells into a text to speech microphone. No one would ever type that much without being forced (like in school).

LOL
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#TheGoyimKnow


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November 21, 2018, 01:06:08 AM

The biggest catalyst that'd make BTC price skyrocket higher is simply move all your BTC to your PERSONAL bitcoin wallet (move off of Coinbase, Binance, Bitfinex, Square, Robinhood, CBOE/CME futures).

Fractional reserve, BTC lending, rehypothication is a bitch and can perpetually create no floor for prices by establishment market manipulators.

Plus if history is any indication, one these avenues will blow up and wreck the "holders" of bitcoin that really wasn't there because they failed to take such advice.

Take it off the exchanges and see what happens.


Underrated post.

Overrated post because he doesn't understand how bitcoin functions.  Bitcoin is like the "cloud computing" scam.  You see ads all the time hyping this bullshit term "the cloud".  Hello goyim, upload all of your information to the magical cloud!  In reality, there is no "cloud".  The "cloud" just means uploading your shit to a computer you don't own or control.  

Bitcoin is literally cloud banking.  There is no possible way to take possession of your shitcoins whether you have the private key or not.  The coins rest permanently in a virtual cloud with built-in middlemen and counterparty risk.  You have to bribe centralized miners with ransom fees and ask them permission if you ever want to attempt to do anything with one of the coins.  There is no way to remove the counterparties from your life.  It's a permissioned ledger with non-fungible tokens where you can be blacklisted at any time.

Why would anyone use "cloud banking" when you can be your own bank with physical silver or gold instead?  You are definitely NOT being your own bank with shitcoins. You're enlisting to have your life controlled by a bunch of 3rd parties you have no say over.

JayJuanGee
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November 21, 2018, 01:10:02 AM

JJG doesn’t write posts. He sits and yells into a text to speech microphone. No one would ever type that much without being forced (like in school).

I write every single one of my posts.

One thing, so far, is that i have not been accused of plagerism... hahahahahahaha.. because almost every little word that I type flows through my fingertips.... believe it or not?

Hey QA... since I got you on the line.. I seem to recall that I was pissed off at you for a certain amount of time around December 2015 because you were bragging in the thread and proclaiming to sell a decently large stash of your BTC for christmas shopping.. something like that.. so I recall that presentation from you as being an irritating set of interactions and circumstances because it seemed to be a kind of rubbing in, and even encouraging BTC sales at an inopportune time.  Like gloating.   Tongue Tongue

 Am I remembering correctly or was that a different year or perhaps a different forum member?  Could have been 2014 or even 2016.. but for some reason I seem to recall the situation as 2015.
centralbanksequalsbombs
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November 21, 2018, 01:16:47 AM

JJG doesn’t write posts. He sits and yells into a text to speech microphone. No one would ever type that much without being forced (like in school).

I write every single one of my posts.

One thing, so far, is that i have not been accused of plagerism... hahahahahahaha.. because almost every little word that I type flows through my fingertips.... believe it or not?

Hey QA... since I got you on the line.. I seem to recall that I was pissed off at you for a certain amount of time around December 2015 because you were bragging in the thread and proclaiming to sell a decently large stash of your BTC for christmas shopping.. something like that.. so I recall that presentation from you as being an irritating set of interactions and circumstances because it seemed to be a kind of rubbing in, and even encouraging BTC sales at an inopportune time.  Like gloating.   Tongue Tongue

 Am I remembering correctly or was that a different year or perhaps a different forum member?  Could have been 2014 or even 2016.. but for some reason I seem to recall the situation as 2015.

Woah!

So atleast it sounds like QA change his tune? I'm guessing?

This market is so painful btw.
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November 21, 2018, 01:21:02 AM

JJG doesn’t write posts. He sits and yells into a text to speech microphone. No one would ever type that much without being forced (like in school).
I used to, but I've changed my habits for the sake of readers. Now I just extrapolate if asked to and stay as brief as possible otherwise. Some 10 years ago long comments/posts were much more appreciated, but times have changed I guess.

Typing up such posts takes a minute or so when you type some ~150 words per minute by the way, so it doesn't really matter for the writer.
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November 21, 2018, 01:22:24 AM
Last edit: November 21, 2018, 01:33:52 AM by Biodom
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

For those not very familiar with mining costs, here is an excellent write up from an expert.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5063475.msg48085010#msg48085010

In US, typical (not in Cali) residential price is around 10c/kwh.

TL;DR

10c/kwh breakeven mining at $6414/btc
7c/kwh breakeven mining at $4489/btc
5c/kwh breakeven mining at $3207/btc...mostly industrial sites have this cost, unless you are living close to a hydro dam where some residents could have this and even lower.
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