Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Botnake]

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

Okay with 1 and 2 and not for #3.
These scenarios can possibly happen, this market is never easy to predict as it's full of surprises.
But my prediction is at least $6k this year because from that price, we dropped to the current price.

[JayJuanGee]

Mmmm like this Philippine timezone

To live the pump——-> sleep the dump

Nice weather Nice green-ish btc prices
And my GF on my side
Life can be sunny and good from time to time (and away of them damn burgers... )

Have you tried Jollibee yet? I can power down 3 cheesy yum burgers, no problem.

Chowking is also pretty dope. If you get the chance, try to have somebody make you some pork adobo somewhere. That's like their signature dish (of the nation).

I notice the biggest BTC price shifts tend to happen between 8 pm and 10 pm on Mondays (Philippines time zone), that's when the markets are just waking up for the week on the east coast (of the U.S.).

I thought that Philippines was becoming a bit more BTC friendly, and I recall one of the Philippines banks was going to be providing Bitcoin teller machines  (BTMs). 

Not that I am encouraging spending BTC, but sometimes it can be nice to have possible easy access to emergency funds through BTC, especially when traveling, right?  Do you see any BTC teller machines? around manila or other cities?

[JayJuanGee]

Haha we aren’t eating meat anymore for over 3 months or so..... my GF quitted and i followed

Oh man. Well don't forget to take some sort of vitamins and/or iron supplements! Lest you get weak and soft, make you want to dump your BTC as a side effect of vegetarianism...

Exactly...

hormones will get screwed up.  Won't want to have sex, and won't be able to produce babies either.  Might not notice in the short term, but could be problematic, and personally, I value both my libido... well mostly my libido.. it is a decent reason for living.

[JayJuanGee]

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

Okay with 1 and 2 and not for #3.
These scenarios can possibly happen, this market is never easy to predict as it's full of surprises.
But my prediction is at least $6k this year because from that price, we dropped to the current price.

It is not a prediction.  It is a description of various possible scenarios. 

Accordingly, those are conditions in which I am planning to convert my assessment of the current BTC market dynamics from current status of bear to bull.

[JayJuanGee]

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

1) February 2020

2) February 2020

3) February 2020 December 2019

Finally someone (hairybairy) seems to kind of understand my post.     

At least, there seems to be a kind of schelling point in the different scenarios. 

[HairyMaclairy]

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

1) February 2020

2) February 2020

3) February 2020 December 2019

Finally someone (hairybairy) seems to kind of understand my post.      

At least, there seems to be a kind of schelling point in the different scenarios.  

Schelling point is $3.  If you had said 3) BTC price does not break below $3,323 for at least one year, then it would have been much nicer

1) February 2020

2) February 2020

3) February 2020

[JayJuanGee]

Not that I am encouraging spending BTC, but sometimes it can be nice to have possible easy access to emergency funds through BTC, especially when traveling, right?  Do you see any BTC teller machines? around manila or other cities?

Yes, but they are specifically limited to Manila. Funny story: the first time I ever went to the Philippines I only brought US dollars, being naive enough to think they would generally accept them (they do not). My big plan was to cash out BTC for pesos, which I did in the BTC ATM in Manila. The transaction was taking so long, the security guard looked at me and said I should just go to a bank. But sure enough, after 30 minutes, out popped my pesos. Only months afterward did I learn about the moneychangers.

There is a $5 standard ATM withdrawal fee for foreign debit cards, a bit pricey.

What's interesting is all the 7-Elevens have these "cash in" machines where you can cash pesos in to BTC via Coins.ph (by far the most popular wallet in the country). Going the other way isn't so easy -- you have to use a remittance service like Cebuana or M Lhullier, though sometimes I can do a cardless cashout at a Security Bank ATM (that feature has a lot of downtime though). All can be done through Coins.ph -- you can also load your phone will minutes, text or data. It truly is a great service that uses BTC for what it was intended, which is why millions of Filipinos have a Coins.ph wallet.

You can actually save money by converting straight from BTC to pesos, skipping USD. Its cheaper than paying the ATM withdrawal fee. Sometimes I get paid in BTC from my job, so I cash out to myself, or my girlfriend, or her family, etc.

Unfortunately, most people associate bitcoin with "scam" here still. There's not a high level of financial literacy, and a lot of poverty, so people frequently get sucked into cloud mining / ponzi / bitcoin doubler schemes. Its pretty sad. Generally speaking, those in the know have a high regard for BTC and those who only hear about it through anecdotal evidence do not -- same as anywhere, really.

Thanks.  That is the most specific on the ground BTC report that I have seen so far about the philipines.  I am considering going there later in the year.. depending on a couple of other matters that I have to research too before I finalize.  I'm thinking that I will probably know more in about May-ish.... regarding timeline or possible competing locations.

[JayJuanGee]

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

1) February 2020

2) February 2020

3) February 2020 December 2019

Finally someone (hairybairy) seems to kind of understand my post.      

At least, there seems to be a kind of schelling point in the different scenarios.  

Schelling point is $3.  If you had said 3) BTC price does not break below $3,323 for at least one year, then it would have been much nicer

1) February 2020

2) February 2020

3) February 2020

O.k.  I am self-loathing to admit it.  I screwed up.

Therefore, since I don't like to feel badly about myself, I take back all of the good things that I had ever said about you (if they were to exist) (even if I will leave all posts - unedited), and I will also take back any good thoughts that I was considering having about you, too.

On the other hand, it is kind of nice to convert my attempt at a descriptive statement regarding conditions out of a bear market into a predictive statement and confirming that the bull market is beginning, soon^tm  (that is if we can describe 11 months from now, as soon ^tm?).

[JayJuanGee]

Regarding current BTC price:

[HairyMaclairy]

Thank you, you are very funny.  As in amusing.  Not odd.  Not odder than myself or anyone else here.  Which is a low bar but I enjoy our group of misfits.

[nutildah]

Thanks.  That is the most specific on the ground BTC report that I have seen so far about the philipines.  I am considering going there later in the year.. depending on a couple of other matters that I have to research too before I finalize.  I'm thinking that I will probably know more in about May-ish.... regarding timeline or possible competing locations.

Cool, let me know if you do, I can give you some suggestions.

Mic went (is going) to some really beachy / tropically locales, which are all quite nice. I'm more of a city person myself.

[Syke]

The arbitrage with Bitcoin to fiat is very risky. First, Bitfinex is nothing like the US exchanges (which are under the supervision of SEC) and is known with their "hacks" and "bank problems". This means your money can be stolen and you can't do anything about it. Second: if you buy at Bitstamp and transfer the Bitcoins to Bitfinex, you have to wait several hours during which time the price may dip.

Yeah, to do that effectively, you need to hold balances in both places so that you can execute instantly. Definitely risky.

[JayJuanGee]

Thanks.  That is the most specific on the ground BTC report that I have seen so far about the philipines.  I am considering going there later in the year.. depending on a couple of other matters that I have to research too before I finalize.  I'm thinking that I will probably know more in about May-ish.... regarding timeline or possible competing locations.

Cool, let me know if you do, I can give you some suggestions.

Mic went (is going) to some really beachy / tropically locales, which are all quite nice. I'm more of a city person myself.

 

Thanks.  Learning tricks and specialties of each locale can sometimes take a lot of practice, so likely it is good to attempt to learn from others, too.  Possibly avoid some mistakes along the way.

[El duderino_]

The six richest people in the world have a larger net worth separately than the entire market cap of Bitcoin.

The fact that a single person holds more value than Bitcoin, the future global payment currency, shows how early we are.

Accumulate Bitcoin. Every Satoshi matters. $BTC

https://twitter.com/cryptosbatman/status/1103657392217223168?s=21

[HairyMaclairy]

In theory the USDT/USDC spread should mirror the Bitfinex premium.  I can’t be bothered checking it.

[El duderino_]

20 years of price changes in the United States...

Notice how government subsidized industries are the most expensive? 😮

via Imgflip Meme Generator

https://twitter.com/goldtelegraph_/status/1103735429059231744?s=21

[realr0ach]

LastoftheV8TrilemmaShills is now filing FALSE REPORTS against me.  ...

I’m not gonna search for things..... but i just know V8 isn’t really someone thats a liar.....

Yeah, I was as surprised as anyone might be to learn that V8 is a whiny bitch in the shadows. And that's all I'm gonna need to say about that.

It's unbelievable how big of a piece of shit, female acting male Last of the V8s is.  I do not own any Bcash and do not care about Bcash, but he filed a report against you for simply owning Bcash, which is hilarious.  Then he files a report against me for stating an opinion that JayJuanGee is probably a more trustworthy shitcoiner than Bob because Bob was posting "hodl", "to the moon!" and "buy more!" spam while he was dumping $5 million worth of shitcoins on you people. Both of them post all the same bulltard spam, but at least JayJuanGee was not selling while spamming it.

[HairyMaclairy]

Every Satoshi matters.

Well I have definitely screwed up that one

[HairyMaclairy]

20 years of price changes in the United States...

Notice how government subsidized industries are the most expensive? 😮

College tuition in Belgium

Tuition fees at public universities and colleges in the French Community of Belgium are set by the regional government. For the academic year 2015/2016, tuition fees ranged from 374 to 836.96 EUR per year for EU students depending on their income and whether they are eligible for a grant/scholarship.

There are other reasons.  Don’t blame it on government subsidies

[realr0ach]

The USA is corrupt.  Don’t blame it on government subsidies

You need an IQ of zero to not be able to figure out that education in the US is stupidly expensive because the US govt is underwriting the loans.  It's supply and demand.  There's a finite amount of teachers and classrooms, so if you create loans that anyone can take without putting up any collateral, EVERYONE will take them and cause the price to skyrocket to artificially high prices and then probably implode the financial and education system with it.  

If it was real capitalism, you would have to apply to a private lender without the govt involved and nobody would get student loans without putting up collateral, and yes, less people would get loans, but the ones who did get them would only take a few years to pay them back instead of 20+ years.  People claim the system HAS to exist this way to give a chance of upward ability to black noggers from the ghetto, but that's all a scam.  The system exists this way solely to drive up prices and force people into bigger loans that end in life long debt slavery.