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I missed the name calling on both sides. Glad we agree on the boilerplate part. As far as labeling our probabilities of future outcomes as guesses, I stand by that.
Maybe now, we are meandering into the extent to which guesses are involved in this whole matter, or how to categorize what is a guess?
In the past few hours, I have been attempting to reflect a bit on what point you have been attempting to make with your seeming ongoing desire and persistence to label what is going on as a "bull market" or a "baby bull market," and your earlier "baby bull market" kind of gives away what you are attempting to achieve.
Largely you are trying to argue that you are pretty convinced that for whatever reason you believe that the bottom is in, and this price downtrend is reversed. You are trying to emphasize your point by labelling the matter as a baby bull market. Some of the rest of the matters that you are throwing in are not as central to those kinds of main points that you are trying to make with your labelling our current status as a "bull market" or "baby bull market." And, you are largely both attempting to be predictive with your implication that the "bottom is in", and you may end up being right, but you also seem to be attempting to provide a kind of spin doctor reality to the matter by suggesting that if we all begin to believe that the bottom is in then we will act in such a way that causes the description to fulfill the prescription.
I have called you a troll, and other similar names a few times, because I had been kind of questioning some of your exaggeration intentions; however, I may be developing a little more sympathy for your whole framing of the matter if I am correct about your intention to merely cause more bullish thinking that might assist to make what you want to be reality come true.
I don't have any problem with having bullish intentions, because as you likely pointed out several times, I am a bitcoin bull myself, and my investment practices and behaviors in bitcoin attempt to reflect my bitcoin bullish sentiments and beliefs. Nonetheless, I question how much utility comes from what seems to me to be exaggerations that are likely NOT going to change the market anyhow, and could actually result in a lot of blowback when your seeming exaggerations end up NOT even coming close to coming true.
So, for me, it may be more of a personal tone matter in which I believe in having low expectations in order that it is way more likely that my expectations are going to be reached and exceeded - because I have found that if I create or follow higher expectations or exaggeration, then there is a real high likelihood that its going to end in a lot of disappointment when those exaggerations and high expectations are not reached.
The scientific method is based on hypotheses which are educated guesses based on prior knowledge and observation.
You are getting into a different field here, and I doubt that we need to go down the "scientific method" road in order to understand what people do. We are not scientists, but we still are easily capable of assigning various probabilities to future events and outcomes. Some events and outcomes are highly probable and some are not, and each person is going to assign varying probabilities to various outcomes and the compounding of calculations which might involve pure guessing in some cases is likely going cause a whole hell of a lot of different views about the future, even if there is agreement on some aspects. For example, both of us might assign a real high probability that the sun is going to come up tomorrow even if we have differing views about the dynamics that cause that. Predicting human behavior and markets (that involve a lot of human behavior) are way more complicated, and we do not necessarily need scientific methods to attempt to employ various kinds of probability theory, even though sometimes people with scientific minds and thinking are going to have more specialized approaches, but there are a whole hell of a lot of really smart people and scientists who don't know what they fuck they are talking about in regards to bitcoin matters (even if they might have opinions about it).. hahahahahaha
Im not implying your guesses are random dart throws,
hahahahaha good.... however, just the fact that you bring that up seems to show that you are assigning way more randomness to opinions than they likely deserve, including the opinions of yours truly.
but the implication is we make our best guesses, based on prior knowledge and observation.
Fair enough about this point.
If you arent guessing, then you would be 100 percent certain.
There is no need to lump all aspects of knowledge into one category. Like I attempted to describe above, there are certain categories of information that are more certain than others and even more undisputed. Like we are going to agree about what is going to happen, so for example, if we talk about bitcoin's halvening, we can agree to a lot of aspects about it, and if we talk about how many BTCs are produced per 10 minutes and about how miners might increase or decrease their hashing power based on BTC price. However, the more factors that we attempt to account, the harder it comes to both assign probabilities to the behavior or what kind of an impact those factors are going to have on the BTC price and even the extent to which one factor or another matters or how other people might view the event, including how much weight to give to BTC price momentum versus news versus fundamentals versus public perceptions or regulations.
What I am trying to say is that we are going to weigh various factors differently, and even come to differing weighing of their impact on bitcoin and there will also be some guessing involved too. Some people have access to more information, and do not have to guess as much as others about certain aspects, but still it is quite likely that no one really knows while at the same time no one is completely guessing about everything either. By the way, some people seem to make some of their guesses/predictions based on a combination of numerology and conspiracy theories about bitcoin manipulation, and sometimes they might end up being correct, too.
Basically you might not prefer my word choice(no worries), but it is accurate based on widely accepted definitions.
There are word choices and there can also be questions about what factors are being considered and how much weight is given to factors and how much pure guessing might be going on.
As for answering your last questions. These are good questions and while I do enjoy sharing my hypothesis that the bottom is in and the bull market is upon us, I at this time am not willing to share all of the inner workings and procedures that led to this decision, so I will have to respectfully decline those questions.
That above is a real bullshit and seemingly disingenuous troll answer. I had made questions that are so easy peasy that almost any genuine poster should have been able to at least make some kind of stab at disclosing which BTC price points or what factors caused them to arrive at their conclusion about when the bull market or "baby bull market" in this case and your terms was triggered and/or entered into.
The fact that you don't even make any kind of reasonable attempt shows that you are either acting disingenuously (as a kind of troll), that you are a dumbass (I don't think that is the case, by the way) or that you are purely making shit up (guessing) just for the mere sake of it.
In other words, based on your already demonstration of writing and analyzing abilities (including your demonstration of your detailed trolling efforts aimed largely at roach and gembitz), it should be quite easy for you to write out something like this:
>>>>>>>>Between December 7 and December 15, I saw that the bears had put in a lot of effort to attempt to bring the BTC price down, and the best that they got on December 15 was $3,122. Subsequently, by December 21 and December 25, the BTC price rebounded to $4,100 and $4,200 respectively. At no later point have the bears been able to bring the BTC price down below $3,300.....blah blah blah<<<<<<
You should have easily been able to come up with some kind of plausible and seemingly genuine bullshit ideas to show that you are at least attempting to make an effort in the right direction, but instead you play the "trade secrets" phoney baloney card... Your handler told you to say something like that? hahahahahaha
Some of my knowledge and procedures I consider to be "proprietary" for lack of a better word. Im not selling anything to anyone, but it is the fruit of my labor from 16 years of investing and trading so I will keep the sauce recipe to myself.
Oh my!!!!! I have heard this kind of nonsense before when I troll attempts to avoid answering by playing both the expertise card and the trade secrets card.
Not believe-able. You gotta try harder.. or actually try less hard. Being genuine does not take a lot of effort, but when you are not genuine, your bullshit will tend to seep through, which likely shows that my time is being wasted attempting to explain some of these basic concepts to a disingenuous poster..
I will be serving that sauce though on Bear Meat to anyone who would like a sample
Not convincing... after reading your previous few sentences.
Bravo, that may have been your longest post ever. I am honored
You are on the money on most parts but as for the spin doctor part. Its an interesting conjecture on your part, but no Im not trying to influence the market. I cant imagine any situation where a few hundred posts over 5 years would ever have any influence whatsoever. Surprised you would even think I might bother attempting that but its still kinda interesting, I mean WO is the CEO of Bitcoin and all the banker bigwigs are probably reading this to learn about Bitcoin.
As for the last part. You wanted to know exactly why I believed the bottom was in. To give you an in depth and candid answer would require my fairly complicated trading/investing procedures that are very unorthodox and completely a product of my own sweat and creative energy over 16 years. Its not about which TA metric did I willy nilly pick out of a book and I dont want to tell you which one it is. If I had copied it from someone else Id have no problem sharing it. Im being completely truthful about this, and I cant imagine why this would be hard to believe.
I would think that many people have developed unique ways to analyze available info without resorting to being a drone like Tone Vays and counting to 9 over and over.
Its not so much its a trade secret and someone will steal it if I share all my methods, its more that I have no benefit to share them and dont feel like having to go through a tedious process of explaining things that would be time consuming for me to communicate effectively just so strangers on the web can critique them or whatever else they want to do. Answering your questions completely would be a major imposition on my time and privacy and doesnt benefit me in any way, so I politely declined.
If it was a simple run of the mill answer like you gave example to above, I would be happy to share that, but its not so I declined.
Pretty fair and reasonable and very believable if you can imagine that many people out there who are heavily involved in any activity such as trading, investing, making bbq sauce, cooking pies, running a business, etc. for over a decade might have come up with some unique insights, methods, and practices that they prefer not to put on display.
If you cant imagine those kind of people are out there in large numbers, then ok, no problem Im not offended if you dont believe me and think everyone is a drone reading books on bollinger bands and watching Tone Vays count to 9 on youtube
Good chat. Have a wonderful 84th day of the new Baby Bull Market. Stack Satoshis Saturday is upon us.
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