Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[StartupAnalyst]

Would like to think of such a cute pet as your friend? 

[Raja_MBZ]

A wild guess: today is the last day to get bitcoin below $3900.

Yes.  The odds of the truth of that assertion are in the less than 25% arena.

So far so good:

Maybe the odds of going below $3,900 again became slightly better than what they were on March 25, but they have not changed by a lot.. I would not even put them above 45% and that 45% is a bit charitable.  You may end up being correct, regarding your guess, but I am not sure what that would be saying, besides you having had gotten lucky in your guess.  Do you find that valuable in how you live your life?  I certainly try to minimize gambling and guessing in how I live my life, but surely once in a while it is fun.. but that is it.. merely fun rather than something to attach much if any significance.

What are the odds of going below $3900 (again) now, @JJG?

Are you trolling me, Raja?

Partially

I am certainly no soothsayer, but merely because something happens, like you predict does not suggest that you are anything but lucky when it happens, especially if it remains a kind of 50/50 event or even 70/30... or something like that. 

True!

I largely outlined my current thinking in my post two posts above this one, which describes some thinking that we are going up before we go down... so one seemingly decent scenario would be to go to the $6k arena first and then have a 30% plus correction, which would bring us to $4,340 (that is if we presume something like $6,200 x 70%), but then there could be a further spike down, or the BTC price might not make it to $6,200 before experiencing a 30% plus correction...  So in such a scenario, bringing BTC prices down to $4,340 could cause additional downwards spiking, and we have seen that many times in bitcoinlandia...   

And even a scenario of a $5,500 local top in this particular cycle and then a 30% plus correction would bring BTC prices below $3,900.... in the $3,850 arena... which are not unreasonable price wave scenarios...

We all know that anything (literally anything) can happen in bitcoinlandia - within an hour, we can either get a nice green $1k candle or a dark red $1k candle. We've seen it before and we should definitely be ready to see it again. However, the reason why I quote that wild guess, again & again after each pump, is to enjoy a new value of odds that is a little more closer to 100%, and I guess that it makes everybody around feel a bit better.

Imagine looking at these posts after a few years, when the probability of going below $3900 will actually be close to zero; it'd be pure pleasure.

Some nice progress has already been made in the last few days... From:

less than 25% arena

to:

maybe we are getting close to the 50/50 arena..

BTW, I don't think that we're close to that 50/50 arena yet. If I were you, I'd call it 50/50 once we break above ~$5700. But then again, it's all pure speculation... This thread is all about speculation anyways.

NO matter what we should be preparing for both up and down, if you don't want to end up being disappointed, even if your "never below $3,900 again" dart-throwing sorcery-wannabe pronouncement ends up coming true.   

Well, let's just hope that it does come true!

[JayJuanGee]

When page parity?

Dunno.

I'm shooting for post count parity some time in 2024.

Whoaza, jbreher... that is a pretty damned conservative timeline, but hey I don't have any problem(s) with either conservative thinking or preparing for conservative outcomes.

[ivomm]

https://www.chepicap.com/en/news/8591/what-traders-say-about-the-bitcoin-pump-5k-then-5-5k-.html

[JayJuanGee]

When page parity?

Dunno.

I'm shooting for post count parity some time in 2024.

Mmmm you have opened a Bcash thread somewhere on the forum, try catching 227$ somewhere 2024??

I'm calling Bitcoin post count parity some time in 2024. Whether that Bitcoin be BTC, BCH, or SV is an open question.

I think the next FOMO pile-in is going to make evident to the world the weaknesses of the Core-ian approach to scaling. The other forks (hewing more closely to Satoshi's inspired design) will be there to pick up the slack.

Incidentally, while BTC is up 14+% in the last 24 hours, BCH is up over 27% in the same time frame.

Yes, SV is lagging at 11+%. ::sigh::

Oh my fucking god.  You are either sick or delusional to still be having those kinds of illusions of grandeur in respect to those two shitty-ass bcash projects.    

I think the next FOMO pile-in is going to make evident to the world the weaknesses of the Core-ian approach to scaling. The other forks (hewing more closely to Satoshi's inspired design) will be there to pick up the slack.

What is the non Core-ian state of Layer 2 and instant payments ?

It's stupid-ass jbreher talk.   

[JayJuanGee]

I'm itching to release my mega collection of specially made-for-WO Choo-Choo, Carolina and related memes, but I won't do it just yet. I'm reserving it for when we re-enter 5-digit territory.  Coming soon. ^tm

HoDLing patiently and enjoying the wild ride...

FTFY   

[Last of the V8s]

https://twitter.com/BraveTheWorld/status/1113092339684249601
I like Bitcoin because you can't utilize it for socialism.
"just give everyone a btc"
"that means you'd have to take btc away from others"
"so what"
"morality aside...that would be very hard. impossible without severe violence"
"ok just make more"
"you can't make more"

[wachtwoord]

What line did you draw? The daily 200 SMA is at 4600 ...

Your probably looking at a simple moving average and what I was showing is a smoothed moving average..that is all. I apologize for any confusion.

How is that calculated that it deviates that much from normal simple moving average?

Why do you use it instead of simple moving average?

Edit:

I looked it up: https://www.tradeforextrading.com/index.php/movingaverage/sma-ema-lwma

The SMMA is not commonly used

So only the question remains why you prefer smma over sma?

[Retina]

If Bitcoin stable next some time so recovery others token and coin soon. Tottal bitcoin market is now 'Red' a few pumping soon.

[JayJuanGee]

Is this the calm after the storm now? I wouldn’t mind a period of 3-4 months in this range. Low volatility is good for bitcoin. Average Joe doesn’t want to buy when the price is up & down like a yoyo.

I’d be cool with low volatility until June/July or something before the next leg up to $ 6,000 or something.

Anybody agree?

You might want it, but bitcoin no don't work like dat.  Sorry to break the newses to you, oldtimer...    

 

Is this the calm after the storm now? I wouldn’t mind a period of 3-4 months in this range. Low volatility is good for bitcoin. Average Joe doesn’t want to buy when the price is up & down like a yoyo.

I’d be cool with low volatility until June/July or something before the next leg up to $ 6,000 or something.

Anybody agree?

I do.

It's too soon for FOMO. We need consolidation. That's only achieved with TIME.

Yeah, but it is not going to happen in a flat and/or gradual kind of way... like I mentioned.. bitcoin no b workin like dat.   

[HairyMaclairy]

I'd like to see a survey on the subject. I wonder how many people think the bullran has already started?

The bull season started on 19 January 2019.  It just takes awhile for the news to get out.

[HairyMaclairy]

When page parity?

Dunno.

I'm shooting for post count parity some time in 2024.

Whoaza, jbreher... that is a pretty damned conservative timeline, but hey I don't have any problem(s) with either conservative thinking or preparing for conservative outcomes.

I’m shooting for views parity in 2033.

[JayJuanGee]

I know which of those two assets I’d rather have

Fucking heavy to lug that shit around... especially if traveling.  My bones are hurting already, just thinking about it.

[Last of the V8s]

post count 466,581
view count 21,089,567
for the record

5x seems a little conservative...
oh wait will go up huh jjg? lol

[HairyMaclairy]

I know which of those two assets I’d rather have

Fucking heavy to lug that shit around... especially if traveling.  My bones are hurting already, just thinking about it.

That’s why you have a PA

[JayJuanGee]

Fuck your stupid-ass charts.  I am going to assert (without charts) that the next resistance is in the $6,200 to $6,500 arena (I know it is a broad range, but I can do what I like)... and I believe it will be difficult to get above that without a battle or at least some kind of meaningful correction.. but what the fuck do I know?   

At least he stopped posting bcash charts.

I don't have any problems with him as long as he doesn't promote bcash here.

He has the right to be bearish.

I win whether if it is bearish or bullish. I got bets on either side.

If it goes down below $3k tomorrow all I'm gonna see more future profits. Being a bear is part of the game too.

Fair enough.  Guilty as charged. 

I admit that you caught me exaggerating a bit, there in terms of attempting to negate  alevlaslo's assertions, there.

Nonetheless, I do still stick by my positive assertions to the extent that they are materially different from what  alevlaslo was saying.

[JayJuanGee]

I win whether if it is bearish or bullish. I got bets on either side.

If it goes down below $3k tomorrow all I'm gonna see more future profits. Being a bear is part of the game too.

this is called a hedge trade. a hedge trade is usefull to protect against losses.

but you have to cancel the hedge trade before you can make profit.  

That assertion only makes marginal sense, Gyrsur.

Surely, short term, the value of your total BTC/fiat holdings will drop substantially if the price drops by 50% or more, but that should not prevent you from having a strategy that largely accumulates BTC by buying on dips and HODLing rather than selling.

I understand that short-term, you can feel a lot of hurt when the value of your total BTC portfolio is down because of a sudden BTC price drop, but that should not inspire non-sophisticated (even sophisticated) folks to try to play around wiht the bitcoin fire in an attempt to play both ends, when historically, an accumulation and HODL strategy has been more than adequate to build a decent amount of overall wealth - and likely to continue into the foreseeable future.

[JayJuanGee]

I'd like to see a survey on the subject. I wonder how many people think the bullran has already started?

What is crypto?  We're in a bitcoin thread, here.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

Fucking LTC up $10 since I dumped for taxes.

HOPE YOU ARE HAPPY, IRS ! It's all going to you anyway.

Taxation is theft.

This happens every time I sell some coins. Coincidence?

[JayJuanGee]

pit pat piffy wing wong wang

O.k...   Fine.


Sometimes, it takes me time to feel that I am starting to "get it."