Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

Stamp leading the dumps this time?

I think that Huobi had larger-than-usual drops 1 minute ahead of Bitstamp at 12:30 UTC, and a couple of minutes ahead at 12:37.

[Luno]

But that still doesn't explain why the other exchanges are calm too. I think that their is a "gentlemen’s agreement" between exchanges not to take advantage on GOX

That is easier to explain: MtGOX is a roach motel -- what goes in presently cannot get out, and perhaps never will.  Except for naive investors who sell coins at other exchanges and sink their money into MtGOX, there is no communication between that market and all the others (which appear to be fairly well connected by arbitragers).

As others have pointed out, what the charts show for MtGox is trade of virtual "goxBTC" for virtual "goxUSD", that may be convertible one day to actual BTC and actual USD, at some unknown "exchange rate" between 1 and 0 (inclusive).

True, Gox is magical, I was not suggesting a conspiracy amongst exchanges, merely just a common incentive not to make everything worse for everybody.
I haven’t watched volume on multiple exchanges but there can't be much trade on the other floors if price action is so low?

The broader perspective might put us all in a roach motel, if banks choke bitcoin further. Too much mentioning of that in media the past 3 months Norway Canada Ukraine Denmark to mention a few.

Ideologically, it doesn't mean shit, Bitcoin is still beautiful, but this is a speculation thread, and it will have a severe impact on price .

[billyjoeallen]

But that still doesn't explain why the other exchanges are calm too. I think that their is a "gentlemen’s agreement" between exchanges not to take advantage on GOX

That is easier to explain: MtGOX is a roach motel -- what goes in presently cannot get out, and perhaps never will.  Except for naive investors who sell coins at other exchanges and sink their money into MtGOX, there is no communication between that market and all the others (which appear to be fairly well connected by arbitragers).

As others have pointed out, what the charts show for MtGox is trade of virtual "goxBTC" for virtual "goxUSD", that may be convertible one day to actual BTC and actual USD, at some unknown "exchange rate" between 1 and 0 (inclusive).

True, Gox is magical, I was not suggesting a conspiracy amongst exchanges, merely just a common incentive not to make everything worse for everybody.
I haven’t watched volume on multiple exchanges but there can't be much trade on the other floors if price action is so low?

The broader perspective might put us all in a roach motel, if banks choke bitcoin further. Too much mentioning of that in media the past 3 months Norway Canada Ukraine Denmark to mention a few.

Ideologically, it doesn't mean shit, Bitcoin is still beautiful, but this is a speculation thread, and it will have a severe impact on price .

Impossible. That would just drive the market to decentralized exchanges where we trade for cash. That would actually be better for Bitcoin in the long run, just like bittorrent is better for file sharing than Napster, although short term prices would take a big hit.

[Wekkel]

Finally, my purchase decisions are not affected by a few percent of inflation. I buy if I need or want something. Inflation is mostly an annoyance to me (saving is impossible in our current system).

You are contradicting yourself there. Because saving up in cash has been made impossible, as you say, you save less and buy more. The point is that people should save wealth in production, not in money.

Perhaps it seems that way but wealth can be stored in other means than cash. It does not neccessarily increase my consumption. Whether people 'save' in production should be a free choice to make, not a forced one.

[billyjoeallen]

Finally, my purchase decisions are not affected by a few percent of inflation. I buy if I need or want something. Inflation is mostly an annoyance to me (saving is impossible in our current system).

You are contradicting yourself there. Because saving up in cash has been made impossible, as you say, you save less and buy more. The point is that people should save wealth in production, not in money.

Perhaps it seems that way but wealth can be stored in other means than cash. It does not neccessarily increase my consumption. Whether people 'save' in production should be a free choice to make, not a forced one.

The capital structure of the entire economy is so out of whack after 30 years of artificially low interest rates, that investing in production at this point is folly in most cases. The true capitalist is flying blind at this point because the price signals are being intentionally distorted. Invest in production of what?

I invest in the production of cryptographic tokens that have the potential of restoring price signals and allowing capitalists to allocate resources where they are most needed.

[dreamspark]

Call me a fool but I couldn't resist buying some goxBTC at .5. Be greedy when others are fearful and all that...

[Erdogan]

About coming here to seek investment advice...

Where should you go? To Washington Post? To NY Times? The Economist? Forbes? Or maybe to the central banks in Russia or China? Or maybe to a big bank like JPMorgan?

I think not. Those sources are not useful, other than for us to see what our adversaries have discovered..

Is there a top secret, 1000 USD a month journal, with the real info is, that the common retail investors can't afford to access? No, doesn't exist.

If an interested financier is looking for info, he should come here, right to the adamstgbit's wall-thread on bitcointalk. Any experienced investor should be able to sift through the posts and separate the wheat from the chaff. If he is only looking for the current sentiment, like most finance advisors do, he should just swallow it all in raw form.

Well done adam, you are in the center of the universe now.

Yeah, it is a quiet day in bitcoinland.

[mah87]

About coming here to seek investment advice...

Where should you go? To Washington Post? To NY Times? The Economist? Forbes? Or maybe to the central banks in Russia or China? Or maybe to a big bank like JPMorgan?

I think not. Those sources are not useful, other than for us to see what our adversaries have discovered..

Is there a top secret, 1000 USD a month journal, with the real info is, that the common retail investors can't afford to access? No, doesn't exist.

If an interested financier is looking for info, he should come here, right to the adamstgbit's wall-thread on bitcointalk. Any experienced investor should be able to sift through the posts and separate the wheat from the chaff. If he is only looking for the current sentiment, like most finance advisors do, he should just swallow it all in raw form.

Well done adam, you are in the center of the universe now.

Yeah, it is a quiet day in bitcoinland.

Dumbest thing ever write

[JorgeStolfi]

I haven’t watched volume on multiple exchanges but there can't be much trade on the other floors if price action is so low?

MtGOX's volume was falling relative to other non-Chinese exchanges, and it had already lost its first place among them.  As you can see from the tables that I have been posting, after they locked their exit doors their trade volume paradoxically exploded, from ~15 kBTC/day to ˜100 kBTC on certain days.  Who knows how much of that is legitmate and how much is generated by the exchange itself.

[der_meister]

No much action; a good article meanwhile:

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/02/10/77-reasons-youre-awful-at-managing-money.aspx

[billyjoeallen]

Call me a fool but I couldn't resist buying some goxBTC at .5. Be greedy when others are fearful and all that...

It's not foolish at all, provided you can live with the probable loss. It's like betting a number on the roulette wheel that pays off 50 to 1.

[AmazonStuff]

I haven’t watched volume on multiple exchanges but there can't be much trade on the other floors if price action is so low?

MtGOX's volume was falling relative to other non-Chinese exchanges, and it had already lost its first place among them.  As you can see from the tables that I have been posting, after they locked their exit doors their trade volume paradoxically exploded, from ~15 kBTC/day to ˜100 kBTC on certain days.  Who knows how much of that is legitmate and how much is generated by the exchange itself.

In the next 48h beside volume, price will explode upward too. I don't think that whoever can will skip the opportunity to buy BTC at this exchange rate, so as bank wires slowly arrive to Gox we will see price go up until Thursday. After that I don't know what will happen, depends on Gox announcement.

[Richy_T]

Actually it is production that creates wealth and production is stimulated by consumption.
When world currency would be deflationary then consumption will slow because everyone will be motivated to hold onto their money, not to use it on consumption. That in turn means that production will slow down and that actually means less wealth to everyone.

Broken window fallacy. Don't just know it, understand it. Then you might understand why production and consumption are not worthy goals in and of themselves.

[Erdogan]

Finally, my purchase decisions are not affected by a few percent of inflation. I buy if I need or want something. Inflation is mostly an annoyance to me (saving is impossible in our current system).

You are contradicting yourself there. Because saving up in cash has been made impossible, as you say, you save less and buy more. The point is that people should save wealth in production, not in money.

Perhaps it seems that way but wealth can be stored in other means than cash. It does not neccessarily increase my consumption. Whether people 'save' in production should be a free choice to make, not a forced one.

The individual should store his wealth in the form most suitable for himself, which could be money that is not designed to loose value.

The society as a whole can not do that of course, because money is only exchange value based on reservation demand. But a society can also not save money in land, because the land is there, has always been there and will always be there. They don't make it anymore. If it increases in value generally, it is because it takes on exchange value and in effect becomes money.

The only way for the society to become rich, is to build up a massive production capacity through investment in capital goods. But building useless production capacity through companies yielding negative profit is counter productive, it consumes wealth. You need to build production capacity for valuable things, and you can only get that through voluntary trade and the hunger for profit. Any violent interference reduces the efficacy of the capital, and credit expansion and zero interest rate policy is the worst interference there is.

[dreamspark]

Call me a fool but I couldn't resist buying some goxBTC at .5. Be greedy when others are fearful and all that...

It's not foolish at all, provided you can live with the probable loss. It's like betting a number on the roulette wheel that pays off 50 to 1.

Yeah I can definately take the loss. I only spent 10btc which is a smallish percentage of my 'play stash'.

The way I see it I would have to make a long series of really good trades to double up in the same way and there would be much much more risk involved. While Gox running off with the money is a distinct possibility I think the risk of this happening is far lower than 50-50.

The numbers just make sense really.

[billyjoeallen]

Call me a fool but I couldn't resist buying some goxBTC at .5. Be greedy when others are fearful and all that...

It's not foolish at all, provided you can live with the probable loss. It's like betting a number on the roulette wheel that pays off 50 to 1.

Yeah I can definately take the loss. I only spent 10btc which is a smallish percentage of my 'play stash'.

The way I see it I would have to make a long series of really good trades to double up in the same way and there would be much much more risk involved. While Gox running off with the money is a distinct possibility I think the risk of this happening is far lower than 50-50.

The numbers just make sense really.

So we agree the risk/reward ratio is low enough. I think there is a greater than 50% chance you'll lose, but if you win, you'll more than double up. The problem is that this market moves so quickly that by the time you realize your profits, you may miss out on several other opportunities. Range trading to scoop up 2% per swing seems boring, but it's a guaranteed profit if you don't care if you're either fiat or BTC heavy when price moves to a new range.

[Luno]

I haven’t watched volume on multiple exchanges but there can't be much trade on the other floors if price action is so low?

MtGOX's volume was falling relative to other non-Chinese exchanges, and it had already lost its first place among them.  As you can see from the tables that I have been posting, after they locked their exit doors their trade volume paradoxically exploded, from ~15 kBTC/day to ˜100 kBTC on certain days.  Who knows how much of that is legitmate and how much is generated by the exchange itself.

In the next 48h beside volume, price will explode upward too. I don't think that whoever can will skip the opportunity to buy BTC at this exchange rate, so as bank wires slowly arrive to Gox we will see price go up until Thursday. After that I don't know what will happen, depends on Gox announcement.

Thanx for the update. Now got to find out if Max Kaiser still is running WOT over on RT

[dreamspark]

Call me a fool but I couldn't resist buying some goxBTC at .5. Be greedy when others are fearful and all that...

It's not foolish at all, provided you can live with the probable loss. It's like betting a number on the roulette wheel that pays off 50 to 1.

Yeah I can definately take the loss. I only spent 10btc which is a smallish percentage of my 'play stash'.

The way I see it I would have to make a long series of really good trades to double up in the same way and there would be much much more risk involved. While Gox running off with the money is a distinct possibility I think the risk of this happening is far lower than 50-50.

The numbers just make sense really.

So we agree the risk/reward ratio is low enough. I think there is a greater than 50% chance you'll lose, but if you win, you'll more than double up. The problem is that this market moves so quickly that by the time you realize your profits, you may miss out on several other opportunities. Range trading to scoop up 2% per swing seems boring, but it's a guaranteed profit if you don't care if you're either fiat or BTC heavy when price moves to a new range.

Yeah I see where your coming from. Range trading can bite you as well though if the market suddenly takes off and your left on the wrong side of a short- what would your range have been over the last week for instance? And what do you do when your trading for 2% profits and the market moves 10% the other way eating the last 5 trades you made? I dont see myself as missing other oppurtunities as I have enough fiat/btc to make any moves I may want to make in the mean time. As you can can probably tell I trade for btc profits rather than fiat. I personally put it about 30% Ill lose but only time will tell 

[billyjoeallen]

Call me a fool but I couldn't resist buying some goxBTC at .5. Be greedy when others are fearful and all that...

It's not foolish at all, provided you can live with the probable loss. It's like betting a number on the roulette wheel that pays off 50 to 1.

Yeah I can definately take the loss. I only spent 10btc which is a smallish percentage of my 'play stash'.

The way I see it I would have to make a long series of really good trades to double up in the same way and there would be much much more risk involved. While Gox running off with the money is a distinct possibility I think the risk of this happening is far lower than 50-50.

The numbers just make sense really.

So we agree the risk/reward ratio is low enough. I think there is a greater than 50% chance you'll lose, but if you win, you'll more than double up. The problem is that this market moves so quickly that by the time you realize your profits, you may miss out on several other opportunities. Range trading to scoop up 2% per swing seems boring, but it's a guaranteed profit if you don't care if you're either fiat or BTC heavy when price moves to a new range.

Yeah I see where your coming from. Range trading can bite you as well though if the market suddenly takes off and your left on the wrong side of a short- what would your range have been over the last week for instance? And what do you do when your trading for 2% profits and the market moves 10% the other way eating the last 5 trades you made? I dont see myself as missing other oppurtunities as I have enough fiat/btc to make any moves I may want to make in the mean time. As you can can probably tell I trade for btc profits rather than fiat. I personally put it about 30% Ill lose but only time will tell 

The current range:
I publicly called the Feb 9 $530 as the bottom. I sold a tiny bit on the bounce, bought it back at $550.
I sold at $678, so I missed a little bit of the bounce and now I'm waiting for lows again under $600. I don't really care if it goes higher, though. I have BTC set aside for trading higher ranges. Only going lower than $550 will necessitate me depositing fresh fiat.

[billyjoeallen]

http://www.coindesk.com/localbitcoins-manufacturing-low-cost-bitcoin-atm/

http://www.coindesk.com/first-us-bitcoin-atm-seattle-austin/

These machines will be more profitable than video poker during the next major rally.