Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Millionero]

I could have participated in the ETH ICO at 1 BTC = 2000 ETH. And I could have just HODL those all until today and I'd be as retired as anyone else.

But ... as it is, I'm still struggling to make ends meet.

I was there when Vitalis Butylene came to the Bitcoin Center in New York City in 2014 to flog his token.

I don't do sex any more because it's silly. I do remember getting pretty bored of it during the act at certain points and started thinking about railway timetables to pass the time.

If Bitcoin's iron grip on my mind was replicated in my wanking technique my poor johnson would look like one of these -

Wait, you mean my willy isn't supposed to look like that?  Oh man...

[kurious]

Guys, I've decided to give my alter ego, r0ach, a vacation. I'll be posting with this account for a while.

Well I guess I can unignore JJG now

Steady there: catching up on pages goes much slower if things get normal again and you don't have JJG and r0ach on ignore....

[gentlemand]

The future when you were in the past is always ... you can't predict these things with any accuracy. You could make a very good educated guess, but the saying is "hindsight is 20/20" ... or is that 2020 (next year?).

Everyone says we should have all bought corns back in 2013 or 2012 (or as early as you were introduced to bitcoin.)

I mean, I bought corn at maybe $25 and sold them at $50. I bought litecorns at $10 and sold them at $20. I could have participated in the ETH ICO at 1 BTC = 2000 ETH. And I could have just HODL those all until today and I'd be as retired as anyone else.

But ... as it is, I'm still struggling to make ends meet.

All depends on what that bloke's buy in was. If I'd sold in 2015 I would've been at a significant loss. If I'd bought at 10c I may well have gotten bored of having my life on hold and gone for it knowing perfectly well the price would be higher in future. It gets to a point where progressing rather than waiting is worth missing out on gains you don't really need.

Then again since he bought again he's clearly not done yet.

[kurious]

I could have participated in the ETH ICO at 1 BTC = 2000 ETH. And I could have just HODL those all until today and I'd be as retired as anyone else.

But ... as it is, I'm still struggling to make ends meet.

I was there when Vitalis Butylene came to the Bitcoin Center in New York City in 2014 to flog his token.

Is that a euphemism?   If not, it ought to be...

[Biodom]

In 2015 I sold 800 BTC to buy a house for my family.

In 2018 I sold my house and bought back 50 BTC.

People who thinks I'm crazy for selling my house please know that my only regret is to have sold my bitcoins.

Investment in Real Estate is now garbage comparing to #Bitcoin.

https://twitter.com/bitcoinization/status/1161310562866880513?s=21

Story for a Dumbass or a Legend?

I see he’s brave to admit his wrong being and buying back BTC there should be merit in that act, but F*** how dumb to sold all of his BTC for a house..... (I think all of his BTC, not sure but if he had left it should be more so he wouldn’t sell the house to buy again 50 ....)

That is fucking crazy to have sold that many BTC in 2015 - clearly 2015 was a BIG ASS dip in the market for pretty much the whole year....   Pretty much mid-$200s for the whole year (bouncing around some, of course).

Lack of delayed gratification.

If the short-sighted guy knew that he wanted a house, he could have sold some in 2014 in the $600 plus territory (maybe not all of them) or just waited the matter out until 2017.. or even taken out a mortgage... but whatever, its a form of short-sightedness in a decently strong kind of way.   The buy back of the house for only 50 BTC shows how god-damned difficult it would be to get anywhere close to 800 BTC ever again for a person with such a seemingly average budget.

Everyone says we should have all bought corns back in 2013 or 2012 (or as early as you were introduced to bitcoin.)

But ... as it is, I'm still struggling to make ends meet.

an interesting observation, actually.

maybe we can surmise that it is unlikely that one's financial situation can be significantly (and long term) improved by shrewd investments if only for a fact that we are all feeble humans who buy too late and/or sell too early.

The likelihood of a particular person making 1000X their investment within, say, five years and not losing it within the next five is probably close to zero.
It is very unlikely to happen.

Aiming at 10x within 10 years and not losing the bulk later is probably the most one can do.
Granted, OGs and anybody buying the bulk before $1000 got more, but the game is not over yet.

[Millionero]

I could have participated in the ETH ICO at 1 BTC = 2000 ETH. And I could have just HODL those all until today and I'd be as retired as anyone else.

But ... as it is, I'm still struggling to make ends meet.

I was there when Vitalis Butylene came to the Bitcoin Center in New York City in 2014 to flog his token.

Is that a euphemism?   If not, it ought to be...

My mama told me if I flogged my token it would end up looking like this


She was right.

[HairyMaclairy]

I could have participated in the ETH ICO at 1 BTC = 2000 ETH.

I could have as well, but I decided not to because I thought ETH was a scam with broken tech. Turned out I was right. But being right didn’t make me wealthy. 

[gentlemand]

I could have as well, but I decided not to because I thought ETH was a scam with broken tech. Turned out I was right. But being right didn’t make me wealthy.  

I recall masses and masses of accusations and warnings about it at the time. Dunno if that was people trying to scalp others or whether it was heartfelt. It's never moved me in the slightest but the numbers have certainly been impressive.

One of the most interesting alt launches was NXT largely because it was the first ICO type thing. Its wretched distribution looked largely to be because the developer gave up trying to get more on board because everyone thought it was a load of shit, or maybe it was the first ICO scam too. The 70 or so people who did cough up were rolling in it for a modest period of time until it vanished. I wonder how many made actual bank and how many hung on all the way down.

[HairyMaclairy]

Given extreme illiquidity of shitcoins, I would estimate you can only take out of the market at most 1/100th of their market cap before they collapse to zero.

Many shitcoins would be much less that.

So NXT with a market cap spike to $1.8 billion might have allowed whales to get out up to $18 million before it collapsed. So a small handful of insiders may have made bank.  But it’s not hundreds of people. 

[PoolMinor]

[gentlemand]

Given extreme illiquidity of shitcoins, I would estimate you can only take out of the market at most 1/100th of their market cap before they collapse to zero.

Many shitcoins would be much less that.

So NXT with a market cap spike to $1.8 billion might have allowed whales to get out up to $18 million before it collapsed. So a small handful of insiders may have made bank.  But it’s not hundreds of people. 

They did scrape up a seemingly never ending bunch of new coins that 'required' NXT ownership to claim them.

[1 currency now]

Appeared on the Google news feed.

"Visionary Bitcoin Creator Satoshi Nakamoto to Reveal Identity"

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/08/16/1903230/0/en/Visionary-Bitcoin-Creator-Satoshi-Nakamoto-to-Reveal-Identity.html

Someone claiming to be satoshin.

[HairyMaclairy]

Appeared on the Google news feed.

"Visionary Bitcoin Creator Satoshi Nakamoto to Reveal Identity"

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/08/16/1903230/0/en/Visionary-Bitcoin-Creator-Satoshi-Nakamoto-to-Reveal-Identity.html

Someone claiming to be satoshin.

Looking forward to CSW’s podcast and pleased he has partnered with digital marketing and PR agency Ivy McLemore & Associates for this important announcement.

That’s what Satoshi was missing the first time around. A good PR agency. Just look at the photo below.  These guys are cutting edge. 

[STT]

Investment in Real Estate is now garbage comparing to #Bitcoin.

Did he invest or was he just living in a house.    People over use the word investment when they arent participating in a business so why is it suddenly investment.   If he was a landlord operating margins from his costs to profit then fair enough, just timing an asset buy in any market is speculative.    Unless his job is a hedge fund, most of us have no ability to properly carry over or balance our losses against profits for taxes like that so its a dangerous game.
  I realise many qualify it as anything which turns a profit in the transaction but I dont rate betting on a price movement as investment.

The elephant in the room for all these ideas is money is cheap which adds that context to everything, in some cases bond yields are negative so betting prices is seen more then ever as investment activity.


Bitcoin looks positive I think until it fails to pass 50 DMA and disappoints.   I avoid weekends anyway but the reaction is going to give a better clue, its got a few higher lows.

[Dabs]

The best scenario is buy BTC when it was below $50. (Ideally, when it was below $1). So you have say a few thousand corns. Let's say 10k.
Then you participate in, let's say ETH, and part with half of your corns. so that's 10 million ETH.
Then you participate in a bunch of different ICOs with maybe even just 1 million ETH. And you do an average of 5x. Some go to zero. Some go 10x. Then bring it all back to ETH or BTC.
Then you HODL until ATH... maybe at 15k per BTC, 1k per ETH.

Then, it would take me a literal couple of years cashing out about $10k USD every other day, so I can spread all over the world in 10 different fiat currencies and still have more than half left over in BTC, because there are still so many things I can't buy with just BTC, and everything else has to be paid in fiat and I don't mind investing in some traditional index ETFs to let it sit for the next 10 years.

At one point in time, I had available to me about $20k USD from a bank, in the Philippines, in about 2014. I could have used it to buy all corn back then ... it was maybe $500? So about 40 corns. If that's all I HODL'd until now and even with interest, I could have sold maybe 4 corns, paid back the loan, and still have 36 corns; or invested half in the ETH ICO and gotten 40k ETH.


But none of us knew that. Still. What if ...

[pereira4]

In 2015 I sold 800 BTC to buy a house for my family.

In 2018 I sold my house and bought back 50 BTC.

People who thinks I'm crazy for selling my house please know that my only regret is to have sold my bitcoins.

Investment in Real Estate is now garbage comparing to #Bitcoin.

https://twitter.com/bitcoinization/status/1161310562866880513?s=21

Story for a Dumbass or a Legend?

I see he’s brave to admit his wrong being and buying back BTC there should be merit in that act, but F*** how dumb to sold all of his BTC for a house..... (I think all of his BTC, not sure but if he had left it should be more so he wouldn’t sell the house to buy again 50 ....)

That is fucking crazy to have sold that many BTC in 2015 - clearly 2015 was a BIG ASS dip in the market for pretty much the whole year....   Pretty much mid-$200s for the whole year (bouncing around some, of course).

Lack of delayed gratification.

If the short-sighted guy knew that he wanted a house, he could have sold some in 2014 in the $600 plus territory (maybe not all of them) or just waited the matter out until 2017.. or even taken out a mortgage... but whatever, its a form of short-sightedness in a decently strong kind of way.   The buy back of the house for only 50 BTC shows how god-damned difficult it would be to get anywhere close to 800 BTC ever again for a person with such a seemingly average budget.

The future when you were in the past is always ... you can't predict these things with any accuracy. You could make a very good educated guess, but the saying is "hindsight is 20/20" ... or is that 2020 (next year?).

Everyone says we should have all bought corns back in 2013 or 2012 (or as early as you were introduced to bitcoin.)

I mean, I bought corn at maybe $25 and sold them at $50. I bought litecorns at $10 and sold them at $20. I could have participated in the ETH ICO at 1 BTC = 2000 ETH. And I could have just HODL those all until today and I'd be as retired as anyone else.

But ... as it is, I'm still struggling to make ends meet.

When you are feeling down at past opportunities which were missed, you just have to look at this guy's tweet and just have a laugh at it all:




This is even worse than the pizza guy. Most people don't know who he his, this guy made a tweet which went viral with his face. It's still growing to this day:

https://twitter.com/gregschoen/status/70261648811761665

I would never be able to sleep at night ever again. The moral of the story is of course and as always: HODL, at any rate.

[jojo69]

This ends only one way. War.

I fear so.  Our chances of getting through it without serious radiological release seem grim indeed.

[HairyMaclairy]

This ends only one way. War.

I fear so.  Our chances of getting through it without serious radiological release seem grim indeed.

Rubbish.

The world is far more connected today than it was 15 years ago.

The iPhone means that people in Milwaukee are far more likely to be interlinked with people in Ulan Bator or Nairobi.

These interconnected trade flows mean that war is rapidly becoming unacceptable between state actors.  It would be bad for business.  Pyongyang is kept on a tight leash by Beijing.

Of course we are seeing increasing sophistication from non-State actors such as ISIS and white supremacists, but they don’t have access to WMDs as yet (and won’t if the world’s intelligence agencies have anything to do with it).

[infofront]

You seem to be describing Armageddon-like scenarios in which gold might prosper in such a way that is appreciating 10x or more from current value, ... unlikely scenarios, but we might chose to make 1% to 10% of our investment choices based on such scenarios, especially if we assign them a high probability (such as 10%, which seems a bit high to me, but might seem reasonable to some of the Armageddon nutjobs out there)

Q: Given an unending supply of inflationary medium, how long can a balloon keep expanding?

A: Exactly until the internal inflationary forces overcome structural integrity, causing balloon to burst.

- jbreher, proud monetary armageddonist nutjob since long before the turn of the millennia

Noted:  Jbreher admits to being one of the armagaeddon nutjobs.  Hopefully, you, jbreher, are not staking too much of actual value (more  than 10% - or even up to 20% in really seemingly stupid-ass crazy dedication)  on such an unlikely scenario.

I don't know when, but I'm 99% certain there will be a grand worldwide monetary reset within my lifetime. Perhaps as early as next week.

I might subscribe to this, but the question is what form it would take.
Imagine for a moment that ALL bonds in developed countries (or at least up to 30 year) are with negative yield (like in Germany right now).
What would it mean?
To me, it would almost certainly mean that you would be charged for deposits. In a big picture this would look like system malfunction.
El-Erian recently said that fin system is not set up to operate with negative yields. Think of insurance and pension funds, for example.
In this situation, who would have deposits larger than a month or two of expenses?
Reset where and how would reset affect those negative rates?

I don't think that the CBs/IMF/etal have WarRoomed the possibilities sufficiently in order to be ready when the offal hits the oscillator. Accordingly, they will likely react in panic. Which would indicate the reset could go in any direction.

That said...

r0ach certainly spews a lot of shit. However, I can agree with him on one point. I think the most likely reset (should it occur within the near or mid term) would be a return to gold as the ultimate basis of world monetary system. I suppose there might be an interim step of 'backed by SDR', but I don't expect that particular sleight of hand to last more than a decade itself.

I do see scenarios where Bitcoin (be it BTC, BSV, or BCH) becomes the reserve currency, but given current state and rate of current trends, less likely. At least in the short term.

As far as interest rates? Repudiated debt does not carry interest.

I don't see the rebasing of the monetary system happening any time soon. Governments never give up power willingly, and the power to print money is the single greatest power they hold.

[soxxx]

Whatsup Bears?!?