Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Arcas]

Sell Sell Sell!!!

[billyjoeallen]

annnnd the market didn't even notice.

[gizmoh]

Sell Sell Sell!!!

MK: Sorry, I am unable to connect you to your coins. This may be caused by Bitcoin being currently faulty. Please come back later.

[humanitee]

Sell Sell Sell!!!

MK: Sorry, I am unable to connect you to your coins. This maybe caused by Bitcoin being currently faulty. Please come back later.

MK: I am not a bitcoin dev... because bitcoin isn't written in php.

[fonzie]

Bitcoin church favorite cult leader Charles Manson  AndreasMAntonopoulosseems seems  to be kind of  indecisive:  

@NHLaundryKing @Bitcoin No, I don’t think that is the case. Mark and Gox have always shown good faith and honest dealing so far.

   08:41 - 14. Feb. 2014

As I said last week, Gox withdrawals scheduled to resume soon. Anyone who bought discounted Gox-BTC will make 100% ROI if this happens  ( please follow you leader,)

   09:12 - 17. Feb. 2014

 AndreasMAntonopoulos ‏@aantonop

@xtsimon @btcdrak @BTCFoundation @MagicalTux The protocol is not changing. Malleability is not going away. DoS didn’t stop. Gox sucks.

    09:59 - 18. Feb. 2014

@DocThrockmorton No, it’s not bitcoin’s issue. If it were, Gox wouldn’t be able to fix it without a protocol change. Gox is lying


10:28 - 18. Feb. 2014

they’re not insolvent or frauds. No evidence of that.


07:14 - 7. Feb. 2014

........................................
 

SUMMARY: EVERYTHING IS OKAY!!!!!!!!!!!

[raid_n]

<Tinfoil hat>
Gox is dealing with a trojan horse and containing it for now after Bitcoin threatened gold parity the domain of the TPTB.

JP Morgan orchestrated a confidence attack, (with over 100 patent revisions to a Bitcoin competitor filed with the USPTO.) JPM knows Bitcoin inside out. They also trade aggressively to manipulate markets.

They dumped 8000 coins to crash Btc-e to $100 and dumped on Gox while exploiting withdrawal vulnerabilities, funded and published anti Bitcoin articles and studies. And publicly denounced Bitcoin after quizzing Bitcoins lead developer over at the CFR of how patches and development is done in regards to implication of the protocol.

Gox is in damage control containing the contagion, mainly because at the time the attack was planed (after they published an advertisement at the financial G8 conference) they were No.1 by a long shot.
</tinfoil hat>

hmmmmmmm

I was hit by similar tin-foil hat theory this morning too.  What if Mark is actually being heroic, and none of us on the outside can see the complete picture?  What if he threw bitcoin under the bus [malleability] as cover to lock withdrawals to actually defend against some greater attack?

There must be a rational explanation for the low price and incessant dumping on Gox.  But none of the theories I've heard really make sense.

 

Maybe the dumping is done by exploiters of the TM vulnerability to cover their tracks
If you had an account that could be linked to exploiting with significant amounts of BTC you might try this to salvage some using other accounts
I would imagine the more trading happens the harder it gets to sieve through whats going on

[KFR]

You'd think they'd turn of the trading engine while they found out.  But that wouldn't be the first time I've given MK way too much credit.

[raid_n]

I've never used Gox but I'd speculate that they didn't just find out by accident.
Their accounting probably didn't add up which caused them to investigate.
The question is would Gox notice if this happened on a small scale?

So if you successfully executed the exploit with a small amount you'd sure as hell try to transfer those coins back in to further multiply them.
After this whole thing went down and Gox stopped anything from going out there could very well be exploiters with btc stuck on gox on an account that is or will get implicated.
Do you really think that they will get to keep these btc without any dispute?

It was just a thought that occurred to me. The reality can be totally different but at least I do think that it is a possibility.

[edit] at least it would explain why btc are being sold that low other than there being absolutely no confidence in gox. If you hadn't actually bought them you don't really care as much about their value

[JorgeStolfi]

The Chinese Slumber Method Prediction almost worked this time!!!

Checking the prediction for Huobi

Prediction posted: Tuesday 2014-02-18, 01:14 UTC
Prediction valid for: Tuesday 2014-02-18, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price:  3860 -- 3920 CNY (3890 plus or minus 30)
Huobi's actual price (L -- H): 3810 -- 3824 CNY (3817 plus or minus 7)
Error center-to-center: 73 CNY

The prediction is the rightmost blue rectangle in the chart below, just above the red/green price bars. 

The big dots on top of the price plot are the Slumber Points (prices at 19:00 UTC every day).  The True points (yellow) are those which had nearly zero trading volume at 19:00; the False ones (olive-brown) are those where Huobi's clients and/or their robots kept trading through the night.

The yellow line is the least-squares-fitted  trend line that was used to make the prediction.




Checking the prediction for Bitstamp

The Bitstamp predicition is the Huobi prediciton divided by 6.12

Bitstamp's predicted price: 625 -- 645 USD (635 plus or minus 10)
Bitstamp's actual price (L -- H):  617 -- 625 USD (621 plusor minus 4)
Error center-to-center: 14 USD

In the chart below, the dots are Huobi's Slumber Point prices divided by 6.12 (or 6.40  for feb 7--9)

[JorgeStolfi]

Here is the Chinese Slumber Method predicition for tomorrow:


Prediction valid for: Wednesday 2014-02-19, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price:  3725 -- 3825 CNY (3775 plus or minus 50)
Bitstamp's predicted price: 605 -- 625 USD (615 plus or minus 10)

The prediction for Huobi above was obtained by fitting a weighted least squares straight line to the last three True Slumber Points, namely the mean prices at February 15, 17, and 18, 19:00--19:59 UTC (rightmost three yellow dots in the chart below), and extrapolating that trend line for one more day.  The prices are ~3961, ~3905, and ~3817, respectively; which extrapolate to ~3775 CNY. 



The prediction for Bitstamp, as usual, is that for Huobi divided by the normal currency factor R = 6.12.

NOTE 1: Those predictions are conditional to Huobi's clients and their robots being all in bed by Feb/19 19:00 UTC.  Otherwise the Method offers no prediction.

[empowering]

oh look a Unicorn

(Despite the timing not aimed at you Jorge)

[Arcas]

Here's my situation. I spent $100 at $650 each a week ago. Not too big of a deal.

I'm thinking of spending another $250-300 tomorrow before the MtGox announcement.

If we hear good news, I could make some money.

If we hear bad news, I could lose A LOT of money.

Not sure if I want to take on that kind of risk, or wait until the market settles on the weekend.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[empowering]

Here's my situation. I spent $100 at $650 each a week ago. Not too big of a deal.

I'm thinking of spending another $250-300 tomorrow before the MtGox announcement.

If we hear good news, I could make some money.

If we hear bad news, I could lose A LOT of money.

Not sure if I want to take on that kind of risk, or wait until the market settles on the weekend.

What aboot blah blah blah news?

[Peter R]

I've never used Gox but I'd speculate that they didn't just find out by accident.
Their accounting probably didn't add up which caused them to investigate.
The question is would Gox notice if this happened on a small scale?

So if you successfully executed the exploit with a small amount you'd sure as hell try to transfer those coins back in to further multiply them.
After this whole thing went down and Gox stopped anything from going out there could very well be exploiters with btc stuck on gox on an account that is or will get implicated.
Do you really think that they will get to keep these btc without any dispute?

It was just a thought that occurred to me. The reality can be totally different but at least I do think that it is a possibility.

Let me see if I understand your theory:

- the group that was exploiting Gox's mishandling of the malleability issue got greedy and deposited a lot of bitcoins to go for a final "moon shot" fraudulent withdrawal,

- meanwhile, Gox realized that they had been robbed and locked down all accounts,

- the thieves became worried that Gox could link the stolen bitcoins to certain large accounts held at Gox,

- but Mark didn't have proof of what account it was yet, so the thieves were still able to trade,

- the thieves start the incessant dumping, selling indiscriminately to random people but also to certain accounts that they control.  This way, although they don't get to keep all the loot, they get to keep some of it.


I guess I'm skeptical of this theory because wouldn't Mark have shutdown trading if he could see that the dumping was coming from just a few accounts?  Isn't no trading better than someone selling stolen coins to obfuscate the money trial?

[CoinDox]

The Chinese Slumber Method Prediction almost worked this time!!!

Checking the prediction for Huobi

Prediction posted: Tuesday 2014-02-18, 01:14 UTC
Prediction valid for: Tuesday 2014-02-18, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price:  3860 -- 3920 CNY (3890 plus or minus 30)
Huobi's actual price (L -- H): 3810 -- 3824 CNY (3817 plus or minus 7)
Error center-to-center: 73 CNY

The prediction is the rightmost blue rectangle in the chart below, just above the red/green price bars. 

The big dots on top of the price plot are the Slumber Points (prices at 19:00 UTC every day).  The True points (yellow) are those which had nearly zero trading volume at 19:00; the False ones (olive-brown) are those where Huobi's clients and/or their robots kept trading through the night.

The yellow line is the least-squares-fitted  trend line that was used to make the prediction.




Checking the prediction for Bitstamp

The Bitstamp predicition is the Huobi prediciton divided by 6.12

Bitstamp's predicted price: 625 -- 645 USD (635 plus or minus 10)
Bitstamp's actual price (L -- H):  617 -- 625 USD (621 plusor minus 4)
Error center-to-center: 14 USD

In the chart below, the dots are Huobi's Slumber Point prices divided by 6.12 (or 6.40  for feb 7--9)

I appreciate your combined use of regression analysis and volume analysis

Houbi's artificially inflated trading activity is well known by now, and I am glad to see someone using a creative fit of analytical tools to play of off this information. By combining the points of a linear regression trend line with the understanding that the best time to measure the underlying direction of Houbi is at points of low-activity, you have really created a good understanding of the general trend of the asset in that exchange.

[KeyserSoze]

the ones in Canada seemingly abide by the required laws as far as I have read.

I just saw that apparently Canadian banks have taken a turn for the worse...
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1y7ln2/cointradernet_canadas_last_bitcoinfriendly_bank/

It doesn't sound like its as cut and dry as the article makes it sound. I haven't heard anything from cavirtex yet, and here's another version http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1y9dkq/rumour_bank_of_montreal_closing_bitcoinrelated/

good find!

[raid_n]

Let me see if I understand your theory:

- the group that was exploiting Gox's mishandling of the malleability issue got greedy and deposited a lot of bitcoins to go for a final "moon shot" fraudulent withdrawal,

- meanwhile, Gox realized that they had been robbed and locked down all accounts,

- the thieves became worried that Gox could link the stolen bitcoins to certain large accounts held at Gox,

- but Mark didn't have proof of what account it was yet, so the thieves were still able to trade,

- the thieves start the incessant dumping, selling indiscriminately to random people but also to certain accounts that they control.  This way, although they don't get to keep all the loot, they get to keep some of it.


I guess I'm skeptical of this theory because wouldn't Mark have shutdown trading if he could see that the dumping was coming from just a few accounts?  Isn't no trading better than a criminal selling stolen coins to obfuscate the money trial?

It is just one theory which did fit in well as a response to other more "extravagant" theories on the matter.
I think this is essentially the problem with Gox. Zip information about their status allows for wild speculation. Its the area 51 of bitcoin.

[edit] It would be interesting to know if Gox already has identified all successful exploits or if this is one giant cluster#$@# waiting to implode

[delaro]

What is happening on gox?

[HairyMaclairy]

Yes any particular reason for the dip to 248 on Gox?  Or just Gox being Gox.  It shook BSP a bit which is stupid.  BSP traders should know better.