Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Dabs]

Not everyone here loves Andreas Antonopoulos, but he likes Segregated Witness in his wallets. (except for the vanity one I guess, but there's an update for vanity generated segwit addresses too.)

Sent merits to everyone on this page.

[Biodom]

There's a lot of evidence that Segwit is the alteration. Read the docs, the white paper

The same evidence that CSW is satoshi?

WTF are you on about? How could evidence of personal identity have anything whatsoever to do with evidence of protocol change?

I'm not sure if you're trolling or trying to be serious.

Back at ya.

See any evidence of SegWit in the white paper? No?

Explicitly in front of your face. Willful dereliction of truthiness.

SegWit was indeed an alteration of the Bitcoin protocol. Undeniably. There is really no way to argue otherwise.

...and why that protocol could not be changed?

[Last of the V8s]

silly cunt that Lauda

[vroom]

is it just me or is it feeling pumpy?

[SuperTA]

It's time (again) for a Wall Observer Meta Post!
I made this post Monthly, so it will consider the merits sent during the month of August.
So I had to wait for the last merit dum, that included the last day of the month.

Merit analysis based on LoyceV merit file: http://loyce.club/Merit/merit.all.txt

Merit updated to August,31th, 2019 23:59:59 UTC

Total merits sent on WO:     28720
Monthly Merits sent on WO: 1127 (-)
Merited Users: 599 (+16)
                  
Nice update, I think montly cadence is more insightful, as less prone to weekly imbalances due to MS drought (mic, I do hear you).
Sadly, It a little bit delayed update, but I committ doing those as soon as sir LoyceV releases data dumps.


Still fixing glitches here and there, I am using this to getting better at data management (errors are mine).

Thank you for your statistics. I also made a monthly statistic for your local bitcointalk board. There are 625 posts published in August, or 20.16 posts per day.

[JayJuanGee]

You are here, so you are very lucky (as are we).

You just need to shift your mindset to a minimum of five years.

I am in that kind of mindset already but my strategy is to cashout 5% from the total profits for every quarter,seems like a weird strategy?

But until now I am doing good and also will invest more when have the money.

Actually, that sounds like an interesting strategy that might work for a large number of investors, except sometimes BTC moves so goddamned quickly that you have to figure out if timing things on the quarter would be wise. For example, would you cash out on the last day of the quarter or at some random point in the quarter in order to attempt to time the market?  We have had a few quarters recently in which the BTC price took off, right after the quarter ended, but also we had dumps right after the end of the quarter.  I tend to be a bit leery about formulating any of my strategies that would be timed exactly at the end of the quarter.


Another thing, are you both investing and cashing out, then sometimes wouldn't those two practices interfere with one another or even cancel each other out?

How often do you invest? Every paycheck?  Every week?  Every month?  Every quarter?

[Last of the V8s]

nice one Dabs

[Toxic2040]

Stunned silence was followed by..

[Dabs]

I think, in the spirit of DCA when cashing out, the prudent thing is to stick to a fixed schedule.

If it's every quarter, pick a date and use that all the time.
If it's every month, pick a date and use that all the time.
If it's a particular weekday of the month, use that all the time. Like every third Tuesday of the month. (Some people do not like to withdraw on a Monday, in this case Tuesday works fine.)

Don't try to time the market. The sage old advice is time in the market.

*edit* Out for the night, going to try to watch a movie even as I'm struggling ... Always keep a smile on your face no matter how much you don't have.

[Krubster]

Are you long or short? What % of capital? What are your take profit and stop loss levels?

I'm long.

If you count the btc/fiat/stocks ratio I'm 99% btc, and have been so since 2016. If you take properties/land into the equation I'm still 80% btc.

I'm debt-free. I have my own house and my own land.

I sell a small portion every month to cover my bills and everyday expenses. The rest stays in btc -- always.

I quit my corporate job in 2016. Because fuck them.

For me there is no take profit level. When the time comes, I won't need fiat.

don't need disclosed personal balance or etc sure you can share personal experience trade type or your memorials history maybe when start so inspired others people.

What's up Negotiation,

I'm not sure what you are asking about, but I will do my best.

I first heard of bitcoin in 2011. I liked the idea and the concept, but I found no easy way to invest so I kind of forgot about the whole thing.

The next year, 2012, bitcoin got a bit of attention in the mainstream media thanks to Silk Road. That raised my attention again and I started to investigate more about it.

At first I found a local market that sold bitcoin. I sent about 500 usd worth of money to this site and made a market buy. However, this site was so illiquid that my market buy moved the market 40%.

After this I started to investigate further about bitcoin and found out about MtGox, the by far biggest market at that time.

I sent a few thousand bucks to MtGox and bought bitcoins for it. At this point I was holding close to 500 btc.

Shortly after this bitcoin began its rapid rise from $10 to $266. I have mentioned this earlier in my posts, but during that bubble I sold 100 btc worth for some physical gold and silver. I dumped another 100 In the Silk Road crash. I also lost/sold a bunch more.

Without going into much details, I've made so many stupid trades.

The first bubble you experience is always the worst.

I have learn from my mistakes. After my first bubble I've been holding like a champ. I did lose a substantional amount in the MtGox debacle though. After that I also learned that - not your keys, not your bitcoins.

In short, hodl.

[Toxic2040]

I think, in the spirit of DCA when cashing out, the prudent thing is to stick to a fixed schedule.

If it's every quarter, pick a date and use that all the time.
If it's every month, pick a date and use that all the time.
If it's a particular weekday of the month, use that all the time. Like every third Tuesday of the month. (Some people do not like to withdraw on a Monday, in this case Tuesday works fine.)

Don't try to time the market. The sage old advice is time in the market.

*edit* Out for the night, going to try to watch a movie even as I'm struggling ... Always keep a smile on your face no matter how much you don't have.

+2 WOsMerit's

[Biodom]

Humor from reddit:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/d0seuh/gift_to_wife/

Will this mark the end of alt winter? Naaaah.

[Last of the V8s]

Hearing talk of putting mesh network antennas in phones next, as it's hardly against manufacturer's interests any more.
Which is nice.

[Last of the V8s]

https://medium.com/@nic__carter/a-most-peaceful-revolution-8b63b64c203e

And it is a rebellion, make no mistake. Cryptocurrency, despite the earnest protests of some of its lily-livered adherents, remains manifestly independent and ultimately hostile to the State. It cannot be regulated, captured, or rendered compliant.

[VB1001]

CMC BTC Dominance: 70.4%

10,555 keep it up BTCitcoin.

[Krubster]

Humor from reddit:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/d0seuh/gift_to_wife/

Will this mark the end of alt winter? Naaaah.

Reddit is blocked here in Indonesia. I know, VPN and all that. But I cant be bothered for a holiday. China lite?

[JayJuanGee]

Btc/Usd

For the short term i'm watching the yellow EMA line, which currently acts as a support on the 4h chart. The 4h candle closed above it. Currently the yellow line is around 10.270 Usd. If it stays above it will be bullish. If not we will find other support.

You sound undeniably correct.

BTC's price is going to go down until it stops going down, and if it does not stop going down where it should stop, then BTC's price is going to go down more.

I have learned a lot about bitcoin and about myself from such observations.      The chart helps to make that point, too.. Comes off as more professional.  

I don't know about you but i buy on the support bounce. So i bought some back. If it reaches my target between 10.800 and 11.000 i sold 3 times already there. Yes it goes up and down but i tell where is the support (buy) and where resistance (sell). If it goes bellow support it means sell. (well i trade only 20% of my holdings, i never sell all.) Trader has to be prepared for both ways.

...This time, around, I don't really care, and I am fine with just continuing to follow my system that only sells small amounts on the way up and also buys back on the way down in intervals that are reasonable for me, and the tweaking this time around is to spread the intervals even more than they had been the first time around, but otherwise I am largely keeping with my system because I like it..

So, yeah a week or two ago, in our run up to a bit above $11k, I made several sales on the way up, and bought back at various points between about $10k and $9,400, and in this last run up to nearly $11k, I had a few BTC sell orders trigger, so the more that triggered, the higher my buy back points are.  I have sell orders on different exchanges so some of them triggered and some of them did not, but so far in this particular most recent correction, from today, NONE of my BTC buy back orders have triggered yet, and most of them are set for a little bit below $10k.  

In my earlier days, I would have had both my BTC buy orders and my BTC sell orders more tightly structured; however, these days I am more happy with larger intervals and my goal and recent practice has been to increase and increase and increase the integers in which such orders are triggered.

Another way of conceptualizing my strategy towards my BTC holdings has been to attempt to create my BTC buy/sell orders in such a way that I am largely NOT too much attached to price direction.. neither psychologically nor financially.  

Of course, I profit more from upwards BTC price movements, but it is also in my thinking that inevitably in the longer term BTC's price is much more likely to go up than it is to go down, but in the meantime, I am profiting from volatility in such a way that it causes me to become less and less concerned about BTC's price going down.  

Also, I have a plan that is projected into the future of starting to liquidate 1% of the value of my BTC stash per quarter, so long as the BTC price is not below $5k, and I am thinking that I will start to employ that particular plan in a few years, and I think that there are real decent chances that the BTC price is not going to go below $5k in the coming years or to interfere with my tentative liquidation plan, and if BTC's price does go below $5k, then I will just plan to hold off on cashing out my 1% during any such quarters that the BTC price does go below $5k, if such periods of low BTC price performance were to come, once I start my liquidation plan.

The strategy of constantly selling and buying has one weakness: it produces LOTS of tax obligations during periods of fast btc growth.

Yes.   You are nearly 100% correct.  This is a problem in a lot of jurisdictions, and maybe part of the reason to work towards spacing out the increments more and more.  Hopefully some of these kinds of tax problems will become less burdensome in the future.... but until now, it is a burdensome problema.

Theoretically, if someone was selling extensively, then re-buying in 2017, then watching btc declining to 3k while having serious tax obligations resulting in a need to a selling of the additional chunk at a suboptimal (low) price.
Of course, this would not be the case when ample cash is available to pay the tax.
In other words, in high taxing environment, this strategy might backfire.

Those kinds of matters should be factored in, including making sure all of your tax obligations are covered with whatever strategy that you employ.  That is correct.

On the other hand, trying to sell at the top could be a difficult undertaking as well. The local top is currently projected (by various authors) to be anywhere between 30K and 400K. Tough choice.

There are NOT too many folks who recommend attempting to time the top in any kind of solid way, or even playing with large parts of your BTC value that would mean selling everything at the top.  Like I had mentioned several times earlier, in our past growth from $250-ish to $19,666, many less bullish folks had considered $1,000 to be the top, and more bullish folks had considered $3k to $5k to be the maximum top, but of course, the growth period went way the fuck beyond $3k to $5k - in the 3x to 5x arena, so yeah, people who cashed out BIG in that range might not have even been able or lucky enough to buy back at a price to even break even.. fuck!!!!!  I personally still think that incrementalism is way the fuck the best, and even with incrementalism, you are paying taxes only on your profits, and it certainly should ONLY be a fraction of your holdings, as compared with attempting to play it BIG and getting the matter wrong in a BIG way, too.

HM here favors 180K (don't know where the number came from, maybe just personal preference).

Yeah but Hairy also changes his number from time to time and also seems to both work within a range, and I even doubt that he is playing with 100% of his stash, even when he is making relatively BIG moves.  I don't know, maybe hairy can clarify a bit more in this regard.

My current feel is to allocate certain % for a sale, then sell once a personal preference is set in 1/10 fractions of the final number of btc sells. I intend to sell only up to 20% of my btc at the next ATH, knowing fully well that the rest would probably correct to 20% of the value. Why? Because I don't want to lose my position due to unforeseen price trajectory changes (like a double peak of 2013)..

To me, that seems like a totally reasonable plan, but I get criticized a whole hell of a lot for being way the fuck too conservative and also hanging onto too much of my stash during price swings, including buying back BTC too early.  Even though I don't completely agree with the various criticisms directed towards my approach, currently, I have pretty solid plans to spread out my intervals more and also NOT to buy back at such a small interval.  I think that both things are going to help me, but then again historically, I have largely been a BIG ASS HODLer, and I think that part of my reason for remaining such a BIG ASS HODLer happened been partly caused by the level of my personal profits only going into an about 20x area.. Perhaps a little bit more.  That still made me potentially rich, but then I did not really feel compelled to sell very much because my cashflow and all of that was already covered without even considering my BTC value.

 If things really go as bullish as we tentatively expect in this next time around, then my profits could get into the 100x to 200x arena, and based on decent amounts of capital.. not just high school or college level kids cashflow numbers, which might cause me to cash out a bit more, just for shits and giggles.. however, part of the problem is then attempting to figure out where I would like to put such extra cashing out value... There will be a bit of a dilemma for me, that it would be better for me to attempt to resolve ahead of time, rather than trying to figure out that channeling of funds issue during another exponential BTC price rise, if that were to come again.   

[fillippone]

TOP 100 WO MERIT SENDERS:

Code:

25.Dabs                    254

                        

I guess someone got this stats as a challenge to improve his rating: Dabs just entered a meriting spree!

[Krubster]

Dabs is on a merit spree!

[jbreher]

There's a lot of evidence that Segwit is the alteration. Read the docs, the white paper

The same evidence that CSW is satoshi?

WTF are you on about? How could evidence of personal identity have anything whatsoever to do with evidence of protocol change?

I'm not sure if you're trolling or trying to be serious.

Back at ya.

See any evidence of SegWit in the white paper? No?

Explicitly in front of your face. Willful dereliction of truthiness.

SegWit was indeed an alteration of the Bitcoin protocol. Undeniably. There is really no way to argue otherwise.

...and why that protocol could not be changed?

There's a lot of evidence that Segwit is the alteration. Read the docs, the white paper

There's a lot of evidence that Segwit is the alteration. Read the docs, the white paper

There's a lot of evidence that Segwit is the alteration. Read the docs, the white paper

There's a lot of evidence that Segwit is the alteration. Read the docs, the white paper

I did not say the protocol could not be changed. I am pointing out Krubster's rather daft implication that the Satoshi-CSW question has anything whatsoever to do with the fact that SegWit is the alteration.