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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21578387 times)
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jojo69
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September 07, 2019, 04:23:33 PM
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oh noes

mah trust

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El duderino_
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September 07, 2019, 04:26:34 PM
Merited by Dabs (5), fillippone (1)

Have given my last 2 to @fillippone and @Toxic2040

Have a good evening brothers.....
Mic has to run, f00d and b00z are calling me out of my seat Cheesy
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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September 07, 2019, 04:27:26 PM
Merited by Dabs (5)

I expect/hope 12K to be broken next week.

No.

11k is too hard to break.

We got too close and look what happened.
Ohh no again bought at the wrong time it seems.Hopefully there won't be too much dump from 10K region.

God no more four digit figures. Lips sealed


Surely we are getting within striking distance of 4 digits, but is this merely a fake out?     I would not proclaim to know, even though the BAKKT seems to be bullish in terms of what would seem to need to be extra demands on actual BTC supply - plus of course, another route for institutional money to more easily and justifiably get a bit of BTC stake.
Thank God the price seems to be stable at $10300 after that sudden dump.Where we are heading now?

Further price fall in this weekend or this is going to be bullish again?

We are stuck in a band between 9,300 and 11,300. It’s a bit irrelevant where it goes in that band it’ll bounce all over the place. What’s important is whether it breaks up or down.

80% chance we will eventually break upwards.
It feels so good to hear that 80% of chances to increase. Kiss

Anyway I am not selling anything in the near future but I am worried that whenever I invest on the bitcoin there is sudden dump immediately.

Am I the most unluckiest man in this world? Cry


You are here, so you are very lucky (as are we).

You just need to shift your mindset to a minimum of five years.

Yes.  Exactly.   Even if I don't really agree with assigning an 80% probability of an upside breakout, in the short term, in the end, it might not matter too much. 

If anyone is worried about whether the break out is going to be up or down or the assignment of probabilities should be 58% or 80% to the upside, then you have not spent enough time accumulating and dollar cost averaging which in any 5 year time frame has very decent chances to being up rather than down or flat... which seems to be one of the reasons that bitcoin remains one of the best investments currently in terms of both hedging and having a decent asymmetric bet (to the upside, of course).

The vast majority of us should realize that there are no guarantees, and also that we don't want to become over-reliant or over-invested in one direction, such as up, even though such upward direction continues to have very decent probabilities of happening... but even with "very decent probabilities of up," that still is far from a guarantee.
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September 07, 2019, 04:27:53 PM
Last edit: September 07, 2019, 04:45:11 PM by Biodom
Merited by Dabs (5)



Btc/Usd

For the short term i'm watching the yellow EMA line, which currently acts as a support on the 4h chart. The 4h candle closed above it. Currently the yellow line is around 10.270 Usd. If it stays above it will be bullish. If not we will find other support.


You sound undeniably correct.

BTC's price is going to go down until it stops going down, and if it does not stop going down where it should stop, then BTC's price is going to go down more.

I have learned a lot about bitcoin and about myself from such observations.    Wink  The chart helps to make that point, too.. Comes off as more professional.  Wink

I don't know about you but i buy on the support bounce. So i bought some back. If it reaches my target between 10.800 and 11.000 i sold 3 times already there. Yes it goes up and down but i tell where is the support (buy) and where resistance (sell). If it goes bellow support it means sell. (well i trade only 20% of my holdings, i never sell all.) Trader has to be prepared for both ways.

...This time, around, I don't really care, and I am fine with just continuing to follow my system that only sells small amounts on the way up and also buys back on the way down in intervals that are reasonable for me, and the tweaking this time around is to spread the intervals even more than they had been the first time around, but otherwise I am largely keeping with my system because I like it..

So, yeah a week or two ago, in our run up to a bit above $11k, I made several sales on the way up, and bought back at various points between about $10k and $9,400, and in this last run up to nearly $11k, I had a few BTC sell orders trigger, so the more that triggered, the higher my buy back points are.  I have sell orders on different exchanges so some of them triggered and some of them did not, but so far in this particular most recent correction, from today, NONE of my BTC buy back orders have triggered yet, and most of them are set for a little bit below $10k.  

In my earlier days, I would have had both my BTC buy orders and my BTC sell orders more tightly structured; however, these days I am more happy with larger intervals and my goal and recent practice has been to increase and increase and increase the integers in which such orders are triggered.

Another way of conceptualizing my strategy towards my BTC holdings has been to attempt to create my BTC buy/sell orders in such a way that I am largely NOT too much attached to price direction.. neither psychologically nor financially.  

Of course, I profit more from upwards BTC price movements, but it is also in my thinking that inevitably in the longer term BTC's price is much more likely to go up than it is to go down, but in the meantime, I am profiting from volatility in such a way that it causes me to become less and less concerned about BTC's price going down.  

Also, I have a plan that is projected into the future of starting to liquidate 1% of the value of my BTC stash per quarter, so long as the BTC price is not below $5k, and I am thinking that I will start to employ that particular plan in a few years, and I think that there are real decent chances that the BTC price is not going to go below $5k in the coming years or to interfere with my tentative liquidation plan, and if BTC's price does go below $5k, then I will just plan to hold off on cashing out my 1% during any such quarters that the BTC price does go below $5k, if such periods of low BTC price performance were to come, once I start my liquidation plan.

The strategy of constantly selling and buying has one weakness: it produces LOTS of tax obligations during periods of fast btc growth.
Theoretically, if someone was selling extensively, then re-buying in 2017, then watching btc declining to 3k while having serious tax obligations resulting in a need to a selling of the additional chunk at a suboptimal (low) price.
Of course, this would not be the case when ample cash is available to pay the tax.
In other words, in high taxing environment, this strategy might backfire.

On the other hand, trying to sell at the top could be a difficult undertaking as well. The local top is currently projected (by various authors) to be anywhere between 30K and 400K. Tough choice.
HM here favors 180K (don't know where the number came from, maybe just personal preference).
My current feel is to allocate certain % for a sale, then sell once a personal preference is set in 1/10 fractions of the final number of btc sells. I intend to sell only up to 20% of my btc at the next ATH, knowing fully well that the rest would probably correct to 20% of the value. Why? Because I don't want to lose my position due to unforeseen price trajectory changes (like a double peak of 2013)..
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September 07, 2019, 04:30:57 PM
Merited by Dabs (1)

saying that segwit is not bitcoin is the same like saying TCP is not IP. it's the same, but it's another layer. TCP can't exist without IP and segwit can't exist without bitcoin.

Not sure you realize what you are saying here. IP certainly does exist independent of any TCP layer. By (your egregiously flawed) analogy, bitcoin certainly does exists independent of any SegWit. Indeed, without recourse to any analogy, bitcoin doth exist independent of SegWit. Remember -- "soft" fork? "Not" mandatory?
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September 07, 2019, 04:34:32 PM
Merited by Dabs (5)

<snip>
There mate,
Here you got my last Merit.
Put that half sMerit at good use!
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September 07, 2019, 04:39:22 PM
Merited by Dabs (1)

There's a lot of evidence that Segwit is the alteration. Read the docs, the white paper
The same evidence that CSW is satoshi?

WTF are you on about? How could evidence of personal identity have anything whatsoever to do with evidence of protocol change?

Quote
I'm not sure if you're trolling or trying to be serious.

Back at ya.

See any evidence of SegWit in the white paper? No?

Explicitly in front of your face. Willful dereliction of truthiness.

SegWit was indeed an alteration of the Bitcoin protocol. Undeniably. There is really no way to argue otherwise.
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September 07, 2019, 04:43:31 PM
Merited by Dabs (5), Hueristic (1)

Do you see evidence of the computer in the printing press?

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September 07, 2019, 04:45:42 PM
Merited by Dabs (5)

oh noes

mah trust

 Roll Eyes



I am sure it is all going to be fine...

We have to work on this trust issue...just saying.
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September 07, 2019, 04:46:15 PM
Merited by SuperTA (1)

Not everyone here loves Andreas Antonopoulos, but he likes Segregated Witness in his wallets. (except for the vanity one I guess, but there's an update for vanity generated segwit addresses too.)

Sent merits to everyone on this page.
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September 07, 2019, 04:46:31 PM
Merited by Dabs (5)

There's a lot of evidence that Segwit is the alteration. Read the docs, the white paper
The same evidence that CSW is satoshi?

WTF are you on about? How could evidence of personal identity have anything whatsoever to do with evidence of protocol change?

Quote
I'm not sure if you're trolling or trying to be serious.

Back at ya.

See any evidence of SegWit in the white paper? No?

Explicitly in front of your face. Willful dereliction of truthiness.

SegWit was indeed an alteration of the Bitcoin protocol. Undeniably. There is really no way to argue otherwise.

...and why that protocol could not be changed?
Last of the V8s
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Be a bank


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September 07, 2019, 04:46:39 PM
Merited by Dabs (6)

silly cunt that Lauda
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September 07, 2019, 04:47:08 PM
Merited by Dabs (5)

is it just me or is it feeling pumpy?
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September 07, 2019, 04:49:23 PM
Last edit: September 07, 2019, 06:01:41 PM by SuperTA
Merited by Dabs (6)

It's time (again) for a Wall Observer Meta Post!
I made this post Monthly, so it will consider the merits sent during the month of August.
So I had to wait for the last merit dum, that included the last day of the month.

Merit analysis based on LoyceV merit file: http://loyce.club/Merit/merit.all.txt

Merit updated to August,31th, 2019 23:59:59 UTC

Total merits sent on WO:     28720
Monthly Merits sent on WO: 1127 (-)
Merited Users: 599 (+16)
                  
Nice update, I think montly cadence is more insightful, as less prone to weekly imbalances due to MS drought (mic, I do hear you).
Sadly, It a little bit delayed update, but I committ doing those as soon as sir LoyceV releases data dumps.


Still fixing glitches here and there, I am using this to getting better at data management (errors are mine).






Thank you for your statistics. I also made a monthly statistic for your local bitcointalk board. There are 625 posts published in August, or 20.16 posts per day.
JayJuanGee
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September 07, 2019, 04:49:53 PM
Merited by Dabs (5)


You are here, so you are very lucky (as are we).

You just need to shift your mindset to a minimum of five years.
I am in that kind of mindset already but my strategy is to cashout 5% from the total profits for every quarter,seems like a weird strategy?

But until now I am doing good and also will invest more when have the money.

Actually, that sounds like an interesting strategy that might work for a large number of investors, except sometimes BTC moves so goddamned quickly that you have to figure out if timing things on the quarter would be wise. For example, would you cash out on the last day of the quarter or at some random point in the quarter in order to attempt to time the market?  We have had a few quarters recently in which the BTC price took off, right after the quarter ended, but also we had dumps right after the end of the quarter.  I tend to be a bit leery about formulating any of my strategies that would be timed exactly at the end of the quarter.


Another thing, are you both investing and cashing out, then sometimes wouldn't those two practices interfere with one another or even cancel each other out?

How often do you invest? Every paycheck?  Every week?  Every month?  Every quarter?
Last of the V8s
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September 07, 2019, 04:52:53 PM
Merited by Dabs (5)

nice one Dabs Grin
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September 07, 2019, 04:53:42 PM
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Stunned silence was followed by..

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September 07, 2019, 04:54:36 PM
Merited by Biodom (5), Last of the V8s (1), makrospex (1), VB1001 (1), SuperTA (1)

I think, in the spirit of DCA when cashing out, the prudent thing is to stick to a fixed schedule.

If it's every quarter, pick a date and use that all the time.
If it's every month, pick a date and use that all the time.
If it's a particular weekday of the month, use that all the time. Like every third Tuesday of the month. (Some people do not like to withdraw on a Monday, in this case Tuesday works fine.)

Don't try to time the market. The sage old advice is time in the market.

*edit* Out for the night, going to try to watch a movie even as I'm struggling ... Always keep a smile on your face no matter how much you don't have. Smiley
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September 07, 2019, 05:03:56 PM
Merited by Dabs (3), JimboToronto (1), JayJuanGee (1)

Are you long or short? What % of capital? What are your take profit and stop loss levels?
I'm long.

If you count the btc/fiat/stocks ratio I'm 99% btc, and have been so since 2016. If you take properties/land into the equation I'm still 80% btc.

I'm debt-free. I have my own house and my own land.

I sell a small portion every month to cover my bills and everyday expenses. The rest stays in btc -- always.

I quit my corporate job in 2016. Because fuck them.

For me there is no take profit level. When the time comes, I won't need fiat.
don't need disclosed personal balance or etc sure you can share personal experience trade type or your memorials history maybe when start so inspired others people.
What's up Negotiation,

I'm not sure what you are asking about, but I will do my best.

I first heard of bitcoin in 2011. I liked the idea and the concept, but I found no easy way to invest so I kind of forgot about the whole thing.

The next year, 2012, bitcoin got a bit of attention in the mainstream media thanks to Silk Road. That raised my attention again and I started to investigate more about it.

At first I found a local market that sold bitcoin. I sent about 500 usd worth of money to this site and made a market buy. However, this site was so illiquid that my market buy moved the market 40%.

After this I started to investigate further about bitcoin and found out about MtGox, the by far biggest market at that time.

I sent a few thousand bucks to MtGox and bought bitcoins for it. At this point I was holding close to 500 btc.

Shortly after this bitcoin began its rapid rise from $10 to $266. I have mentioned this earlier in my posts, but during that bubble I sold 100 btc worth for some physical gold and silver. I dumped another 100 In the Silk Road crash. I also lost/sold a bunch more.

Without going into much details, I've made so many stupid trades.

The first bubble you experience is always the worst.

I have learn from my mistakes. After my first bubble I've been holding like a champ. I did lose a substantional amount in the MtGox debacle though. After that I also learned that - not your keys, not your bitcoins.

In short, hodl.
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September 07, 2019, 05:04:42 PM

I think, in the spirit of DCA when cashing out, the prudent thing is to stick to a fixed schedule.

If it's every quarter, pick a date and use that all the time.
If it's every month, pick a date and use that all the time.
If it's a particular weekday of the month, use that all the time. Like every third Tuesday of the month. (Some people do not like to withdraw on a Monday, in this case Tuesday works fine.)

Don't try to time the market. The sage old advice is time in the market.

*edit* Out for the night, going to try to watch a movie even as I'm struggling ... Always keep a smile on your face no matter how much you don't have. Smiley

+2 WOsMerit's
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