Btc/Usd
For the short term i'm watching the yellow EMA line, which currently acts as a support on the 4h chart. The 4h candle closed above it. Currently the yellow line is around 10.270 Usd. If it stays above it will be bullish. If not we will find other support.
You sound undeniably correct.
BTC's price is going to go down until it stops going down, and if it does not stop going down where it should stop, then BTC's price is going to go down more.
I have learned a lot about bitcoin and about myself from such observations.
The chart helps to make that point, too.. Comes off as more professional.
I don't know about you but i buy on the support bounce. So i bought some back. If it reaches my target between 10.800 and 11.000 i sold 3 times already there. Yes it goes up and down but i tell where is the support (buy) and where resistance (sell). If it goes bellow support it means sell. (well i trade only 20% of my holdings, i never sell all.) Trader has to be prepared for both ways.
I don't really classify myself as a trader, even though in about late 2015, I began to sell small amounts of BTC on the way up in order to help to prepare for any further price drops, if they were to occur, and to take advantage of seemingly inevitable BTC price volatility. Between late 2013 and late 2015, I had considered myself as ONLY a BTC accumulator, so during that whole time, I had a budget and various targets to buy BTC in a kind of aggressive way to reach my targets, which largely took me about a year to get to decent comfort levels in terms of reaching my targets, but I still continued to dollar cost average buy BTC in 2015 and if I ever spent any BTC during that period I would replace such sold BTC within a day or two.
I think that I had considered buying BTC when the price goes down and selling BTC when the price goes up to be a decently sound approach; however, I figured that I had needed to get to a high enough level of BTC accumulation before I felt comfortable enough structuring and starting any kind of selling plan... furthermore, BTC prices did not go up very much during that whole period of 2014 and 2015 while I was engaged in mostly accumulating, in order that I would feel comfortable at shaving off some profits if the price were to go up.. I also had not really structured what my sell plan would be because I thought that I needed to get my whole BTC portfolio into profits before I could start to sell any; however, I also tweaked my thinking regarding that and also came up with some selling plans.
In essence, I tweaked and theorized my plans for how to sell in mid-2015. I figured out what amounts that I was authorizing myself to sell and to increase such authorizations in the event that the BTC price went above my overall BTC costs, and then began to employ my plan and to tweak it ever since I started to employ it in late 2015. I largely consider the carrying out of my plan to NOT require too much thinking, so in essence, I was and have been like a glorified bot, who sells in the area of 1% for every 10% that the BTC price goes up and then uses those proceeds to buy back or to structure my buy backs. Sometimes, I will tweak my system a bit here and there because I will buy in intervals and incrementally that do not fall on any precise lines, but I consider that part of my goal has been to widen and widen my order intervals (both selling and buy back and the spread between the buy and sell in order to make it harder and harder to trigger my orders) in order to NOT have my orders triggered on smaller price movements and therefore I don't have to be setting my buy and sell orders as frequently. When I started the plan the orders were set pretty damned tight, so they were being triggered all of the damned time.
Actually in the price run up to $19,666, I had sold quite a bit of BTC all the way up, and I believe that my fiat to BTC ratio had not gotten much if at all above 12% fiat to 88% BTC, and also I recall that I was already buying back BTC in the supra $19k area.. I recall that on some exchanges my BTC sell orders had gotten to a bit above $20k, so the proceeds from those sales were used to buy back BTC in the supra $19k range.
Probably this time around, if we were to have a double top at $20k-ish, which would be highly unlikely in my thinking, I surely would not expect my BTC buy back intervals to be as tight as they were the first time around, yet I do not have the specific increments set or planned out too much beyond merely having some of the broader dynamics of my expected holdings to be outlined.
Furthermore, there is a similar dynamic in my theoretical outline of a plan all the way up, including if the BTC price goes past $100k. My spreads get BIGGER and BIGGER, but I still do not plan to sell much beyond 1% for every 10% price rise, if we end up going there. But, some of the devil of the details is to see the extent to which the theory will play out in practice, which was part of my learning from my experiences in the last price run up to $19,666... because in the last run up to $19,666, I purposefully changed what I thought was going to be my initial plan, which was I ended up selling less BTC than I had initially planned, and I did that on purpose. In essence, I ended up just sticking with my system of selling 1% for every 10% rise, and I considered that to generate plenty of cash, rather than selling larger amounts of my BTC which had been part of my earlier renditions of projections.
This time, around, I don't really care, and I am fine with just continuing to follow my system that only sells small amounts on the way up and also buys back on the way down in intervals that are reasonable for me, and the tweaking this time around is to spread the intervals even more than they had been the first time around, but otherwise I am largely keeping with my system because I like it..
So, yeah a week or two ago, in our run up to a bit above $11k, I made several sales on the way up, and bought back at various points between about $10k and $9,400, and in this last run up to nearly $11k, I had a few BTC sell orders trigger, so the more that triggered, the higher my buy back points are. I have sell orders on different exchanges so some of them triggered and some of them did not, but so far in this particular most recent correction, from today, NONE of my BTC buy back orders have triggered yet, and most of them are set for a little bit below $10k.
In my earlier days, I would have had both my BTC buy orders and my BTC sell orders more tightly structured; however, these days I am more happy with larger intervals and my goal and recent practice has been to increase and increase and increase the integers in which such orders are triggered.
Another way of conceptualizing my strategy towards my BTC holdings has been to attempt to create my BTC buy/sell orders in such a way that I am largely NOT too much attached to price direction.. neither psychologically nor financially.
Of course, I profit more from upwards BTC price movements, but it is also in my thinking that inevitably in the longer term BTC's price is much more likely to go up than it is to go down, but in the meantime, I am profiting from volatility in such a way that it causes me to become less and less concerned about BTC's price going down.
Also, I have a plan that is projected into the future of starting to liquidate 1% of the value of my BTC stash per quarter, so long as the BTC price is not below $5k, and I am thinking that I will start to employ that particular plan in a few years, and I think that there are real decent chances that the BTC price is not going to go below $5k in the coming years or to interfere with my tentative liquidation plan, and if BTC's price does go below $5k, then I will just plan to hold off on cashing out my 1% during any such quarters that the BTC price does go below $5k, if such periods of low BTC price performance were to come, once I start my liquidation plan.
I think I'll need a TLDR here JJG.
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