Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[magicmexican]

 <SarahCoinBit> Sorry but if it was that simple we would have done it by now. There are a number of factors that hinder how we communicate, especially senior management, but we are not hiding anything and your coins are safe.



Well thats a relief

[TERA]

I'm suprised there haven't been more of these types of walls all along. They used to be normal, and then disappeared in July. The mtgox orderbook used to have 200K COINS on it during bear markets. Bitstamp currently has only roughly 20K coins. If Bitstamp is becoming the major exchange and then rest of the exchanges are either dying off or being proven to have fake volume, then I should expect bitstamp to be at least somewhat more like mtgox used to be. For example 80K coins on the book might be appropriate.

coins are worth 10x what they used to be....

This statement (in and of itself) is not enough to tell me why there would be less coins on order books. The value of the coins does not change the amount of coins in circulation.  Look at this chart (green and yellow): In both corrections of 2012 and in the correction of 2013, there were the same amount of coins on the book, even though the value was increasing by 5x each time. It would probably be similar in 2011 if I could find that too.  Now look at 2014. Suddenly there is an order of magnitude less coins. I would attribute this to exchange diversification and gox dying (this started all the way back in June 2013). However, if Bitstamp is becoming the biggest and most well respected exchange then it should have more than 20K. Even with exchange diversification , Bitstamp should have at least 50K. In any case, the valuation of the coins is an irrelevant argument.

[electronistul]

Haha so fun to see all poor beging for a low btc.

I'd like to see the amount of fiat that's not on the order book popping on the exchange and buying the $&!7 out of them coins, when they finally announce "we have resumed the withdrawals with this and that daily limit"  That *should* be a fun green candle to watch unfold ... LIVE

[surfer43]

Haha so fun to see all poor beging for a low btc.

I'll quote this if it sinks. And I will   in your face  

  
Something like:

Haha so fun to see all poor beging for a low btc.

I'll quote this if it sinks. And I will   in your face  

  

lulz These BTC rich people...
Oh, now they're poor BTC people
They should have sold at $10  
See how awesome and all-knowing my hindsight bias is?  

[HairyMaclairy]

Tera:  hodlers

[T.Stuart]

<SarahCoinBit> Sorry but if it was that simple we would have done it by now. There are a number of factors that hinder how we communicate, especially senior management, but we are not hiding anything and your coins are safe.

Well thats a relief

Interesting. I would say it sounds honest in all respects (don't know how much SarahCoinBit is really aware of but...), giving what could be construed as confirmation that things are intentionally quiet to draw this situation out longer...

What was your question? "Why has no update been released today?" ?

Also, how to you log into this IRC? I suppose you have to be "auth to services" but I can't see where to sign up.

[oscurito23]

If Mtgox close tomorrow morning and closes only can claim FIAT, a Japanese lawyer will be necessary?

[jl2012]

I'm suprised there haven't been more of these types of walls all along. They used to be normal, and then disappeared in July. The mtgox orderbook used to have 200K COINS on it during bear markets. Bitstamp currently has only roughly 20K coins. If Bitstamp is becoming the major exchange and then rest of the exchanges are either dying off or being proven to have fake volume, then I should expect bitstamp to be at least somewhat more like mtgox used to be. For example 80K coins on the book might be appropriate.

It's simply because bitcoin worth a lot more now, so people are not taking the risk to put too many on an exchange. The value of the ask wall (in terms of USD) is not that low.

[Davyd05]

I'm suprised there haven't been more of these types of walls all along. They used to be normal, and then disappeared in July. The mtgox orderbook used to have 200K COINS on it during bear markets. Bitstamp currently has only roughly 20K coins. If Bitstamp is becoming the major exchange and then rest of the exchanges are either dying off or being proven to have fake volume, then I should expect bitstamp to be at least somewhat more like mtgox used to be. For example 80K coins on the book might be appropriate.

It's simply because bitcoin worth a lot more now, so people are not taking the risk to put too many on an exchange. The value of the ask wall (in terms of USD) is not that low.

Go re-read his post about why he thinks the valuation doesn't factor in to this question.

However I agree the hodlers have bought eveything lool

[TERA]

I'm suprised there haven't been more of these types of walls all along. They used to be normal, and then disappeared in July. The mtgox orderbook used to have 200K COINS on it during bear markets. Bitstamp currently has only roughly 20K coins. If Bitstamp is becoming the major exchange and then rest of the exchanges are either dying off or being proven to have fake volume, then I should expect bitstamp to be at least somewhat more like mtgox used to be. For example 80K coins on the book might be appropriate.

It's simply because bitcoin worth a lot more now, so people are not taking the risk to put too many on an exchange. The value of the ask wall (in terms of USD) is not that low.

USD is a bad way to measure things. For example, let's say that tomorrow bitcoin was worth $100,000,000 per bitcoin. To achieve a 1 million dollar wall, you would only need 0.01btc. Would 0.01btc still substantiate as a wall because of its USD value?

[endlessdark]

[surfer43]

I predict this means we are going
⇊

[Rampion]

I'm suprised there haven't been more of these types of walls all along. They used to be normal, and then disappeared in July. The mtgox orderbook used to have 200K COINS on it during bear markets. Bitstamp currently has only roughly 20K coins. If Bitstamp is becoming the major exchange and then rest of the exchanges are either dying off or being proven to have fake volume, then I should expect bitstamp to be at least somewhat more like mtgox used to be. For example 80K coins on the book might be appropriate.

coins are worth 10x what they used to be....

This statement (in and of itself) is not enough to tell me why there would be less coins on order books. The value of the coins does not change the amount of coins in circulation.  Look at this chart (green and yellow): In both corrections of 2012 and in the correction of 2013, there were the same amount of coins on the book, even though the value was increasing by 5x each time. It would probably be similar in 2011 if I could find that too.  Now look at 2014. Suddenly there is an order of magnitude less coins. I would attribute this to exchange diversification and gox dying (this started all the way back in June 2013). However, if Bitstamp is becoming the biggest and most well respected exchange then it should have more than 20K. Even with exchange diversification , Bitstamp should have at least 50K. In any case, the valuation of the coins is an irrelevant argument.

In early 2011  it was not uncommon to see a single 200k coins wall - in 2012 a 20k wall was so common that nothing below that amount was even considered a "wall".

Right now 1k coin is considered a "wall" - albeit a small one - and rightfully so, as the value of the coins has skyrocketed.

You also seem to forget tht in 2011, 2012 and 2013 MtGox was THE exchange - Gox handled 90% of the market. Now Gox is 30/40% of the market at best, therefore to have a more accurate figure of the total coins on sale and compare it to the past you should add Bitstamp's and Gox's order books.

[spooderman]

Another 1k mini-wall infront of the big wall just added.

[UnDerDoG81]

So I slept 8 hrs. What happened to that 10K sell order on stamp? Looks like the bottom was only ~560.

[Miz4r]

I'm suprised there haven't been more of these types of walls all along. They used to be normal, and then disappeared in July. The mtgox orderbook used to have 200K COINS on it during bear markets. Bitstamp currently has only roughly 20K coins. If Bitstamp is becoming the major exchange and then rest of the exchanges are either dying off or being proven to have fake volume, then I should expect bitstamp to be at least somewhat more like mtgox used to be. For example 80K coins on the book might be appropriate.

It's simply because bitcoin worth a lot more now, so people are not taking the risk to put too many on an exchange. The value of the ask wall (in terms of USD) is not that low.

USD is a bad way to measure things. For example, let's say that tomorrow bitcoin was worth $100,000,000 per bitcoin. To achieve a 1 million dollar wall, you would only need 0.01btc. Would 0.01btc still substantiate as a wall because of its USD value?

Think about what that poster said. How much money would people be comfortable with to have sitting on an exchange? This amount doesn't change much over time and is actually valued in USD. So I think it's obvious that the BTC walls become smaller as its value in USD grows.

[TERA]

Think about what that poster said. How much money would people be comfortable with to have sitting on an exchange? This amount doesn't change much over time and is actually valued in USD. So I think it's obvious that the BTC walls become smaller as its value in USD grows.

Maybe once we get better exchanges like something in forex or wall street, people will trust them with more money and the walls will increase.

[ErisDiscordia]

I'm suprised there haven't been more of these types of walls all along. They used to be normal, and then disappeared in July. The mtgox orderbook used to have 200K COINS on it during bear markets. Bitstamp currently has only roughly 20K coins. If Bitstamp is becoming the major exchange and then rest of the exchanges are either dying off or being proven to have fake volume, then I should expect bitstamp to be at least somewhat more like mtgox used to be. For example 80K coins on the book might be appropriate.

I think it is a collection of the following facts:

1. exchange diversificatoin. Probably the biggest one. Gox used to be 80%+ of the market. Now it's 20% tops and its own kind of game. Stamp has nowhere near that kind of market share.
2. hodlers. Crashes are often thought of as the "shaking off of weak hands". Therefore it follows that stronger hands remain and stronger hands bury their coins in cold wallets and don't trade on impulse. Lot of coins are just not for sale, or are tied up somewhere like it Second Market BIT or the WinklEFT.
3. coins being worth more. I do think this is a factor.
4. because of recent events people might be more reluctant to have a lot of coins in exchanges. If I were inclined to trade I know I'd be. it doesn't take that long to transfer coins into an exchange, after all so the opportunity cost of missing the action while waiting for coins to be credited to your trading account might be outweighed by the perceived risk of having coins in an exchange.

[Davyd05]

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1ysaz2/sarahcoinbit_from_mtgox_support_says_there_is_no/

I mean I don't know how much this will quell panic but it is but a glimmer of hope

[Rannasha]

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1ysaz2/sarahcoinbit_from_mtgox_support_says_there_is_no/

I mean I don't know how much this will quell panic but it is but a glimmer of hope

Meh, an IRC message from a support agent. Not sure how much weight that carries. If I were running a company that faced similar issues, I'd be screaming from the rooftops that all funds are safe, because in a situation like this, that is exactly what customers want to hear. Unless of course, funds are not safe...