Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[TERA]

350 Gox?  Too high - makes no sense....   

90 made no sense either. Lunatics just follow trends like crazy.

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[ShroomsKit]

May the price reach this page number at the top of the next bubble.

I hope not.  I don't want to wait that long.

You are funny, but I try to be realistic. The current bubble has to deflate, which may take a few months, then a new (slow at the beginning) bubble will start.

Tzupy, our millionaire, as always has it figured out completely. Amazing the amount of Bitcoin knowledge this guy has.

[JCviggen]

350 Gox?  Too high - makes no sense....   

I think 350 makes about sense actually. What are the odds of Gox pulling through and enabling withdrawals in the not-too-distant future? I don't think it's less than 50%

[podyx]

going down heavy now

[ShroomsKit]

350 Gox?  Too high - makes no sense....   

Nothing made sense the last few weeks. It's just a bunch of sheep following each other with no clue what they are doing.

[RicePicker]

You better bet if profits are going to be made, people are going to wire a ton of money into Mtgox and take advantage of bitcoinbuilders price difference to make a quick buck. I am pretty sure there were a few people that tired to milk the process slowly, but then began a race to make the most profit. Now that the difference between bitcoinbuilder and Mtgox/BSP price have almost equalize the question is what will happen next?

The risk of depositing money into GOX is significantly increased when the difference between bitcoinbuilder and Gox/BSP closes to less than 10%.

[biafore]

Gox bubble pop

[KaTXi]

I don't get why the rest of the markets (Non-Gox) go up if there is really a remote possibility of Gox enabling withdrawals, Can you imagine the amount of bots that are ready to transfer everything from Gox to BTC-e, Stamp, etc and close the arbitrage gap? The bigger the gap is the bigger the benefit (and the crash in the rest of the markets).
IMHO you should be in fiat on the rest of the markets and wait to buy when the arbitrage starts...

[aminorex]

the question is what will happen next?

and the answer is YES!

another question:  do i have the cojones to stay short for some real coins, or do i walk away with my scalping pocket change gain?

[KeyserSoze]

okay! last tickets to the moon!! only $630!!

Third class $305

 

I wonder if I can hop a free ride in the wheel well? It's all I can afford, and I would love to see the moon this time of year.
http://www.cnn.com/2014/02/15/us/dulles-body-found-airplane/

[F-bernanke]

I don't get why the rest of the markets (Non-Gox) go up if there is really a remote possibility of Gox enabling withdrawals, Can you imagine the amount of bots that are ready to transfer everything from Gox to BTC-e, Stamp, etc and close the arbitrage gap? The bigger the gap is the bigger the benefit (and the crash in the rest of the markets).
IMHO you should be in fiat on the rest of the markets and wait to buy when the arbitrage starts...

The second withdrawals work, theres no arbitrage opportunity anymore, gox premium will return (gox price $1000).

[aminorex]

The second withdrawals work, theres no arbitrage opportunity anymore, gox premium will return (gox price $1000).

unless the market has lost its confidence in gox solvency.  in which case the gox  price could make an ATH

[kurious]

You better bet if profits are going to be made, people are going to wire a ton of money into Mtgox and take advantage of bitcoinbuilders price difference to make a quick buck. I am pretty sure there were a few people that tired to milk the process slowly, but then began a race to make the most profit. Now that the difference between bitcoinbuilder and Mtgox/BSP price have almost equalize the question is what will happen next?

The risk of depositing money into GOX is significantly increased when the difference between bitcoinbuilder and Gox/BSP close to less than 10%.

Agreed - I am trying to see if Bitcoinbuilder follows Gox, or the other way around.

The prices seem tight to each other, so the valuation of Gox Bux IS the BB price - but if BB isn't as quick to respond (likely) will buyers get more cautious and bid lower...   BB could crash Gox bubble pretty fast.

I am curious as to how this plays out - it is indeed riskier as of course the risk that 'gox crashes out' is not getting the same risk premium so Gox is potentially overbought*.


*Edit: for those putting new fiat in to buy sell via BB

[TERA]

If gox does fix withdrawals, there will be two groups of people on gox after this:

1. Those who panic sold at the lower prices, lost everything, are jaded, and may never come back to bitcoin again.

2. The traders who suckered the money out of group#1, are sitting on a ton of coins at MASSIVE profits, and will take their profits on bitstamp where fiat withdrawals are more reputable.

[kurious]

If gox does fix withdrawals, there will be two groups of people on gox after this:

1. Those who panic sold at the lower prices, lost everything, are jaded, and may never come back to bitcoin again.

2. The traders who suckered the money out of group#1, are sitting on a ton of coins at MASSIVE profits, and will take their profits on bitstamp where fiat withdrawals are more reputable.

All very Darwinian...

[KaTXi]

The second withdrawals work, theres no arbitrage opportunity anymore, gox premium will return (gox price $1000).

The second Gox opens bitcoins will start flying outside, edges will be closed ASAP, people with bitcoins ready at other markets and fiat on Gox will sell on others and buy on Gox, virtually doubling (depending on the gap) the amount of BTC they have.
Whales don't care about fiat, they wouldn't be here (almost impossible to get huge amounts of bitcoins in fiat anywhere in a timely fashion): All they care if to have MORE bitcoins, and boy, with this arbitrage opportunity, they will get a LOT.

[KeyserSoze]

Neo & Bee have got their new website live in anticipation of tomorrows opening.

You should check it out.
http://www.neo-bee.com/index.php/en/

Whether you think having a BTC-bank is a good idea or not, you should agree this is going to be a new marker in path the to adoption.

From their FAQ, is this strictly true?
"Bitcoin is a free software project with no central authority, with no entry fees and no gain from anyone."

Miners by definition keep fees. Gavin gets a salary to develop Bitcoin.

[KaTXi]

2. The traders who suckered the money out of group#1, are sitting on a ton of coins at MASSIVE profits, and will take their profits on bitstamp where fiat withdrawals are more reputable.

THIS.

[N12]

If gox does fix withdrawals, there will be two groups of people on gox after this:

1. Those who panic sold at the lower prices, lost everything, are jaded, and may never come back to bitcoin again.

2. The traders who suckered the money out of group#1, are sitting on a ton of coins at MASSIVE profits, and will take their profits on bitstamp where fiat withdrawals are more reputable.

It's quite sad how easily manipulated people are in their emotions (one of which has been anger, btw) and give in to a narrative that is simply the greatest bullshit ever told: That an immovable mtgoxUSD has 4-5x the value of a semi-liquid mtgoxBTC, or phrased differently, that the mtgoxUSD/mtgoxBTC rate is at all reflective of a possible insolvency on the exchange's part.

One only needs to look at r/bitcoin, from there it is easy to figure out which cliff the masses are jumping off next. Herd mentality is hazardous for the wallet.

[aminorex]

From their FAQ, is this strictly true?
"Bitcoin is a free software project with no central authority, with no entry fees and no gain from anyone."

Miners by definition keep fees. Gavin gets a salary to develop Bitcoin.

But Bitcoin gets nothing.