Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[cbutters]

2012-08-16 Peak at 16.41
2012-10-26 Low before next runup at 9.50

71 Day Difference, 42% drop


2013-04-09 Peak at 259.34
2013-07-05 Low before next runup at 63.08

87 Days 75% Drop


2013-11-29 Peak at 1163
2013-02-20 Low before next runup at 530?

83 Days 54% drop?

I'd say that considering 530 the bottom before the next runup is well within reason... and if it isn't, its pretty darn close to the end of the bear market.
These numbers pulled using bitcoinwisdom, bitstamp Prices.
 

[1714727055]

1714727055

[1714727055]

1714727055

[Vycid]

2012-08-16 Peak at 16.41
2012-10-26 Low before next runup at 9.50

71 Day Difference, 42% drop


2013-04-09 Peak at 259.34
2013-07-05 Low before next runup at 63.08

87 Days 75% Drop


2013-11-29 Peak at 1163
2013-02-20 Low before next runup at 530?

83 Days 54% drop?

I'd say that considering 530 the bottom before the next runup is well within reason... and if it isn't, its pretty darn close to the end of the bear market.
These numbers pulled using bitcoinwisdom, bitstamp Prices.
 

This ignores the 2011 bubble ratio (~1:16), which would have us back down to low double digits.

I don't think the "bubble projection method" is necessarily informative anyway.

[empowering]

2012-08-16 Peak at 16.41
2012-10-26 Low before next runup at 9.50

71 Day Difference, 42% drop


2013-04-09 Peak at 259.34
2013-07-05 Low before next runup at 63.08

87 Days 75% Drop


2013-11-29 Peak at 1163
2013-02-20 Low before next runup at 530?

83 Days 54% drop?

I'd say that considering 530 the bottom before the next runup is well within reason... and if it isn't, its pretty darn close to the end of the bear market.
These numbers pulled using bitcoinwisdom, bitstamp Prices.
 

Yeah and so far there has been that 7/7.5 to 8 months gap inbetween the new ATHs or peaks (going back some time)
so if the pattern repeats then we might see next ath in mid june/july time- now that is what I call a slumbery pattern ; )

[JorgeStolfi]

Warning - Chinese Slumber Stuff following (next 2 posts)

[T.Stuart]

Warning - Chinese Slumber Stuff following (next 2 posts)

Oh... *yawn* 

 

[JorgeStolfi]

Checking the Chinese Slumber Method predictions for Feb/23

Prediction posted on: Saturday 2014-02-22, 22:05 UTC
Prediction valid for: Sunday 2014-02-23, 19:00--19:59 UTC

The prediction for today (Sunday Feb/23) was again way off the mark.  The rally that started on Feb/22, presumably triggered by the (false) rumor that MtGOX had started testing their new software, continued through Feb/23.

However, the actual price at the predicted time was close to the trendline of the Slumber Points between Feb/10 and Feb/19 inclusive.  It is as if the three previous Slumber Points (Feb/20--22) were all False, including Feb/21, in spite of its low volume.  That is, it is as if the four days Feb/20--23 had been one single "trading session" --- like Feb/11--12, Feb/13--14, and Feb/16--17 --- during which the price veered off the trend line, only to return to it at the end.

Lesson learned: never try to draw a trend line with only one data point.

Anyway, here are the numbers:

Huobi's predicted price: 3368 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3810 CNY
Error: 452 CNY

Bitstamp's predicted price: 550 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 623 USD
Error: 73 USD

The Huobi prediction in question is the rightmost blue rectangle on the chart below.  The light blue-gray rectangles are the previous predictions.  The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, the mean prices at 19:00 UTC every day.  The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction.


The following chart shows the Bitstamp prices and predictions. The orange and grey dots are Huobi's prices at 19:00 UTC every day, divided by R = 6.12.  The orange line is the trend used in the prediction, which is Huobi's trend divided by R.

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Monday Feb/24

Today Feb/23, Huobi's volume for 19:00 -- 19:59 UTC (3:00--3:59 AM China Standard Time) was only 364 BTC, which, by the criteria I have been using, makes it a True Slumber Point. 

That creates a trilemma for the next Huobi price prediction:

  (A) We consider the Slumber Points of Feb/21 and Feb/23 as the first two True points of a new (strongly ascending) trend line; or,
 
  (B) We disregard the Slumber Point of Feb/21, and, since Feb/23 was not too far from the old (moderately descending) trend line of Feb/10--19, we use that old trendline for the prediction; or
 
  (C) We disregard the Slumber Point of Feb/21, and consider Feb/18, Feb/19, and Feb/23 to be the first three True points of a new (almost constant) trend line, which is a continuation of the old one but with a smaller slope.
 
The last alternative seems more reasonable.  That new trend line has the equation p = 3871.10 - 2.57*d, where p is the price and d is the day number.   For Bitstamp, as usual, I will use Huobi's prediction divided by R = 6.12.

Therefore:

Prediction valid for: Monday 2014-02-24, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3809 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 622 USD.



NOTE: The plane has an infinite number of straight lines.   Sometimes we choose the wrong one.

[JorgeStolfi]

End of Chinese Slumber Stuff.  Stop skipping posts.

[T.Stuart]

End of Chinese Slumber Stuff.  Stop skipping posts.

 

[KeyserSoze]

End of Chinese Slumber Stuff.  Stop skipping posts.

Jorge, please tell all your friends especially in Latin America (Bitcoin's final frontier) to sell all they own and put it into Bitcoin. I just learned it's going to go up 1000X. Just between us, buddy. Shhh....
http://www.bit-sky.com/index.php/english/370-chinese-corrupted-officers-will-push-bitcoin-price-up-1000-times

[billyjoeallen]

This ignores the 2011 bubble ratio (~1:16), which would have us back down to low double digits.

I don't think the "bubble projection method" is necessarily informative anyway.

The 2011 bubble rose 32:1 and then crashed 16:1 and of course there was the first major Gox hack to complicate things and no other major exchanges for an alternative. It's not intended to prove $530 has to be the bottom, only that it reasonably could be. This is sound analysis.

[JorgeStolfi]

Jorge, please tell all your friends especially in Latin America (Bitcoin's final frontier) to sell all they own and put it into Bitcoin. I just learned it's going to go up 1000X. Just between us, buddy. Shhh....
http://www.bit-sky.com/index.php/english/370-chinese-corrupted-officers-will-push-bitcoin-price-up-1000-times

Geeze, thanks for the tip!

But you should have used a smaller font, the walls have eyes. 

[zyk]

End of Chinese Slumber Stuff.  Stop skipping posts.

Jorge, please tell all your friends especially in Latin America (Bitcoin's final frontier) to sell all they own and put it into Bitcoin. I just learned it's going to go up 1000X. Just between us, buddy. Shhh....
http://www.bit-sky.com/index.php/english/370-chinese-corrupted-officers-will-push-bitcoin-price-up-1000-times

No, when knowing about crypto Gox and the bitcoinfoundation.....they will choose Litecoin!

[empowering]

The sun is rising over the Land Of The Rising Sun - for what will be another fun week 



Good morning Vietnam Japan

[flynn]

Jorge, please tell all your friends especially in Latin America (Bitcoin's final frontier) to sell all they own and put it into Bitcoin. I just learned it's going to go up 1000X. Just between us, buddy. Shhh....
http://www.bit-sky.com/index.php/english/370-chinese-corrupted-officers-will-push-bitcoin-price-up-1000-times

Gee, they just forgot one small thing : Bitcoin's blockchain is public, and when you got them is public information. So the argument doesn't hold very well.

Ho well, too bad, here goes my x1000

[zyk]

odds of gox btc price being null in 4 days or less??

 

100 % but the idiot market will only realize this when the site went dark ! And if nobody hinders them they will let the cage - trading and

cashing out to the Bahamas go on for as long as there are bagholders to be found in BB.

[EuroTrash]

131 ask wall at 610. Was removed after being eaten for one third

[Yololintian]

What are the changes we'll get that gox update on monday?

[roslinpl]

(edit.. it is all a little bit death threaty huh)
 

 a little bit......

Special at Starbucks: ricin frappucino

xD it is not a Starbucks its Starfucks I remember one of the games has those in a game world .. perhaps Gta.


anyway. Bitcoin price is seems more like coca cola for me now ...

[hdbuck]

The sun is rising over the Land Of The Rising Sun - for what will be another fun week  



Good morning Vietnam Japan

 
-> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1F2RNOCyXe0