Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[F-bernanke]

In my opinion panic sellers deserve fleecing.

Sure, Panic sellers on Stamp deserve all the fleeching, but Gox panic sellers I can understand do a degree (lawyers telling them to get in fiat).

[windjc]

I didn't panic sell, but I sold in order to get more btc. I had set a buy at $100 but Gox canceled it, leaving my buy at $91.5. Gox hit $95 just before bouncing to $260. Now I am left with 1/3 of my coins. A lot of my orders get canceled on Gox for some reason. 

There is decent chance we see $100 again. All we need is another bad update from Gox. People are stupid.

[windjc]

In my opinion panic sellers deserve fleecing.

Sure, Panic sellers on Stamp deserve all the fleeching, but Gox panic sellers I can understand do a degree (lawyers telling them to get in fiat).

If that's true it's horrible advice. Stupid lawyers trying to make a buck. Horrible advice.

[oda.krell]

I don't get why the rest of the markets (Non-Gox) go up if there is really a remote possibility of Gox enabling withdrawals, Can you imagine the amount of bots that are ready to transfer everything from Gox to BTC-e, Stamp, etc and close the arbitrage gap? The bigger the gap is the bigger the benefit (and the crash in the rest of the markets).
IMHO you should be in fiat on the rest of the markets and wait to buy when the arbitrage starts...

It's probably a bit more complicated than that. It really runs down to the following questions:

1) if (and if so, to what extent), and when will gox allow btc withdrawals again

2) assuming withdrawals are reenabled, how will the price difference be settled

There's the, plausible, I admit, scenario that cheap coins flood the other markets, and selling pressure will drive price down on stamp and the others.

But there's another observation that shouldn't be ignored: gox and stamp prices (to pick out the 2 big Western exchanges) have always been highly correlated. There's a large gap between absolute prices, but the correlation still exists (although I suspect it is lower now than it was 1 year ago -- I should look at this again).

That said, here's the observation: in the last week or two, it was apparent that stamp was rather reluctant to follow gox in its tumble to zero. There is no "instrumental" reason I can think of (as in: some obvious way for automated trading profiting on stable prices on stamp vs. falling prices on gox), so large scale manipulation non-withstanding (which I am always rather sceptical about as an explanation), I consider another interpreation:

The crash on gox revealed buying pressure that lay dormant in the otherwise "overpriced" market. Similar to how the SR closure started the rally, because it revealed the pent up buying pressure by bringing price temporarily low enough for the sideline fiat to enter.

Note that I'm unconvinced the 2nd explanation is the right one. I'm just pointing out that I *can* see another way for the price difference to resolve, other than the other exchanges being brought down by cheap gox btc.

EDIT: stable, not rising prices on stamp

[crazy_rabbit]

In my opinion panic sellers deserve fleecing.

Sure, Panic sellers on Stamp deserve all the fleeching, but Gox panic sellers I can understand do a degree (lawyers telling them to get in fiat).

I agree. I didn't panic sell because I didn't see the point, however had I been smarter/riskier, I should have sold at 500 and rebought at 100. Hindsight, right?

There still remains a good chance the market will crash again- but how would I really know? I've played the market like this before and been burned, badly. So in the end, despite kicking myself about all the BTC I could have had but don't, I at least save myself from the even greater anguish of potentially thinking about all the BTC i DID have, but now I DONT. :-)

[F-bernanke]

In my opinion panic sellers deserve fleecing.

Sure, Panic sellers on Stamp deserve all the fleeching, but Gox panic sellers I can understand do a degree (lawyers telling them to get in fiat).

If that's true it's horrible advice. Stupid lawyers trying to make a buck. Horrible advice.

Yes, I agree, I would rather get in BTC, All or nothing right, if Gox goes belly up, you'll have to wait what, 2-5 years and probably take a 50%+ haircut on the fiat anyway if you see any fiat at all.

[TERA]

Dafuq? Did new information come in about gox?

[crazy_rabbit]

I don't get why the rest of the markets (Non-Gox) go up if there is really a remote possibility of Gox enabling withdrawals, Can you imagine the amount of bots that are ready to transfer everything from Gox to BTC-e, Stamp, etc and close the arbitrage gap? The bigger the gap is the bigger the benefit (and the crash in the rest of the markets).
IMHO you should be in fiat on the rest of the markets and wait to buy when the arbitrage starts...

It's probably a bit more complicated than that. It really runs down to the following questions:

1) if (and if so, to what extent), and when will gox allow btc withdrawals again

2) assuming withdrawals are reenabled, how will the price difference be settled

There's the, plausible, I admit, scenario that cheap coins flood the other markets, and selling pressure will drive price down on stamp and the others.

But there's another observation that shouldn't be ignored: gox and stamp prices (to pick out the 2 big Western exchanges) have always been highly correlated. There's a large gap between absolute prices, but the correlation still exists (although I suspect it is lower now than it was 1 year ago -- I should look at this again).

That said, here's the observation: in the last week or two, it was apparent that stamp was rather reluctant to follow gox in its tumble to zero. There is no "instrumental" reason I can think of (as in: some obvious way for automated trading profiting on stable prices on stamp vs. falling prices on gox), so large scale manipulation non-withstanding (which I am always rather sceptical about as an explanation), I consider another interpreation:

The crash on gox revealed buying pressure that lay dormant in the otherwise "overpriced" market. Similar to how the SR closure started the rally, because it revealed the pent up buying pressure by bringing price temporarily low enough for the sideline fiat to enter.

Note that I'm unconvinced the 2nd explanation is the right one. I'm just pointing out that I *can* see another way for the price difference to resolve, other than the other exchanges being brought down by cheap gox btc.

EDIT: stable, not rising prices on stamp

I think your interpretation about hidden buy pressure might actually be right- this past week or two of slow steady slide down on gox has been coupled with increasingly positive news from institutional investors in the media. One of the reasons that supported me not 'panic selling' was the real confidence I was feeling from the media. It's been by and large positive news. Even the crash at Gox has been looked at positively as the media and more important BTC institutions have been methodical about explaining the collapse of Gox and differentiating their problems from Bitcoin protocol problems.  In a normal market I think this would have probably contribueted to a rally- and maybe there really was a rally- a rally masked by a simultaneous falling of prices due to gox-fiasco. Indeed most important institutional entities talk about bitcoin more and more. Even ebay/paypal announced they were building some sort of multicurrency wallet thing. In a non-crises situation, that would have put us in the stratosphere.

Also, maybe the current round of BTC investors are simply more insulated from panic, having already been through so many crashes, and are simply becoming more thoughtful, longterm investors.

[aminorex]

Bear traps everywhere

absolutely time to cover

[podyx]

Dafuq? Did new information come in about gox?

nah, people just think "how dumb of me to buy into this rally" then put up for the same amount they bought for only to get burned by the, how windjc stated, inevitable rally

[RicePicker]

Dafuq? Did new information come in about gox?

Bitcoin Builder gap basically reached its minimum profitability amount. Now the gap has widen for everything to continue again.    

[KaTXi]

But there's another observation that shouldn't be ignored: gox and stamp prices (to pick out the 2 big Western exchanges) have always been highly correlated. There's a large gap between absolute prices, but the correlation still exists (although I suspect it is lower now than it was 1 year ago -- I should look at this again).

That said, here's the observation: in the last week or two, it was apparent that stamp was rather reluctant to follow gox in its tumble to zero. There is no "instrumental" reason I can think of (as in: some obvious way for automated trading profiting on stable prices on stamp vs. falling prices on gox), so large scale manipulation non-withstanding (which I am always rather sceptical about as an explanation), I consider another interpreation:

The crash on gox revealed buying pressure that lay dormant in the otherwise "overpriced" market. Similar to how the SR closure started the rally, because it revealed the pent up buying pressure by bringing price temporarily low enough for the sideline fiat to enter.

Note that I'm unconvinced the 2nd explanation is the right one. I'm just pointing out that I *can* see another way for the price difference to resolve, other than the other exchanges being brought down by cheap gox btc.

That may be for the long run, after the dust settles, but the next days after (if?) MtGox is alive again it will be a bloodbath out there, I can't see any other option:

- Huge gap waiting to be closed (it won't be only Gox going to 600+, a lot of people want to be out of there ASAP).
- People scared with 90%+ of their money on BTCGox (there are a LOT of people like this) going to a more 50% fiat 50% BTC
- Huge warning these days of things that can go wrong on BTC world, result: People cashing benefits on relieable markets
- Few new money entering BTC world with all this "noise".
- ...

I'm bullish on the long run. And with long I mean +2 years, but next weeks (Gox dies or Gox resumes withdrawals, it's the same) are going to be RED on other markets.

[T.Stuart]

If Gox re-opens withdrawals the biggest movement will be Gox up.

Still lots of dry powder on that exchange and doubtless more pouring in next week.

[TERA]

Goxxed again!

[aminorex]

5004!

[spooderman]

I'd like to speculate on how long it will be before we start seeing the 6000 pages in this thread.

My feeling is this ascending triangle has to break soon, and then we can get back to the basic log-linear model that we've been following so far. This implies we will see 6000 in roughly 3 weeks.

[virtualfaqs]

I'd like to speculate on how long it will be before we start seeing the 6000 pages in this thread.

My feeling is this ascending triangle has to break soon, and then we can get back to the basic log-linear model that we've been following so far. This implies we will see 6000 in roughly 3 weeks.

Until this Mtgox thing is resolved, I wouldn't make that assumption. You think we'll hit 6000 if Mtgox announces they're gone?

[spooderman]

I'd like to speculate on how long it will be before we start seeing the 6000 pages in this thread.

My feeling is this ascending triangle has to break soon, and then we can get back to the basic log-linear model that we've been following so far. This implies we will see 6000 in roughly 3 weeks.

Until this Mtgox thing is resolved, I wouldn't make that assumption. You think we'll hit 6000 if Mtgox announces they're gone?

[JorgeStolfi]

I'd like to speculate on how long it will be before we start seeing the 6000 pages in this thread.

My feeling is this ascending triangle has to break soon, and then we can get back to the basic log-linear model that we've been following so far. This implies we will see 6000 in roughly 3 weeks.

Until this Mtgox thing is resolved, I wouldn't make that assumption. You think we'll hit 6000 if Mtgox announces they're gone?

AFAIK it crashed once already, from ~5000 all the way down to 1, is that right?

(I came in late, the second bubble was already underway.)

[schizoid]

Gox dies -> people replace their lost coins on stamp -> stamp goes up
Gox lives -> no more cheap goxcoins to compete with -> stamp goes up