Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[VB1001]

China is already in the process of contention, if their data is correct and they do not lie to us.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/

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[JayJuanGee]

Today is the first day in like 2 years my nocoiner friend mentioned BTC and that he'd like to buy because he heard "it dropped 50%"   Bullish!  

Wow. Most people of that ilk think either 'it's ded' or 'it'll go lower' and then buy 5 minutes before the peak several years later.

Your man sounds like he was born to it.

When i picked up the kids at school today (which is closing down for at least two weeks now) i heard other parents talk about investing in bitcoin, because the price sunk $1000 (...) "No, it's even down $2000! ...", "Then i'm gonna buy for sure now!" ... (and so on). I didn't join the talk, but what i really heard from it was:

"Bitcoin is low, i'm gonna catch the falling knife"
"Bitcoin is even lower, i'm finally buy the blood and become a coiner"

So i guess that BTC will tank even lower after the rise from $4.x cools off.
Many people gonna loose their newly invested money to the whales, at least to some good percentage.
I'll wait for it. I can still buy on the way up until about $6.5k if i'm totally wrong.
My final word (opinion): Bitcoin will go lower before the slow rise to next ATH. When i look at all the pumps after 04/2019, i'd say the bottom could be somewhere between $3 and $3.5k.

You sound a bit too bearish, out of memory.  After a quickie 63% correction, it is likely better to be betting on up rather than down.. although I know that you are not shorting.. but you are hesitating to buy, and I suppose that is not really bad.. it is just seeming a bit overly pessimistic.

Good morning!

Yeah, i might sound too bearish because of the $3k - $3.5k range, but i will buy at higher prices too without much loss (or much less gain, if you want to see it that way).
I'm easy with holding out and waiting, in times of uncertainty i refuse to make moves, because this has brought negative results in the past, mostly.

Fair enough response OOm, but I still believe that some additional clarification should be warranted, here.

Your post had come off as a bit pessimistic to me because you seem to be asserting that we have gone into a more bearish posture, which I believe is NOT completely convincing, because I am having difficulties conceding that this particular market has gone back into bear mode, even though the correction had gotten pretty damned severe..  but we have to see, yet, if the price is going to recover, or if we are going to significantly fall out of line with our current dominant BTC price prediction models of 1) stock to flow, 2) four year fractal and 3) s-curve exponential growth based on networking/metcalfe effects.

So, yeah if we linger down in these sub $6k prices for any kind of significant time, then maybe we might need to start to worry a bit... perhaps?

Otherwise, any of us should be considering if we are still in BTC accumulation stage or if we are in maintenance or liquidation stage.

If any guy had been in accumulation stage that involves DCA and buying on dips, then I don't see any reason to stop in those behaviors, even if you might have to adjust because your cashflow only comes in so rapidly.. so it takes a while to generate more cash if you already used it for both your DCA purchase and your buying on dip purchase.

I am having doubts about whether I should need to go into more detail here, with examples and such because maybe I would be going into overkill mode, but each of us should figure out where we are at and anyone in accumulation mode that employs DCA and buying on dip should be continuing with such.. but of course, such practice might partly be suspended because of a need to wait for MOAR monies to come in  through whatever are the normal cashflow channels.

[JayJuanGee]

Yeah, i might sound too bearish because of the $3k - $3.5k range, but i will buy at higher prices too without much loss (or much less gain, if you want to see it that way).
I'm easy with holding out and waiting, in times of uncertainty i refuse to make moves, because this has brought negative results in the past, mostly.

I (shamed to admit it) capitulated at £3660 on Thursday night and liquidated 0.4 BTC for £1500. Sadly, I needed to make sure I had the money to pay a bill. I use BTC as my overall savings account with very little in my actual bank account other than general operating costs and some on exchanges to play with. It means I lost about 0.03 BTC / £150 in real terms. I had been buying bits and pieces during the crash  - then panicked and sold at a loss.

I am the master of capitulation. I did it at $280 and I’m sure I’ll do it again. This is a sign we can go up now!

Thanks for sharing, no shame really. I'm also similarly positioned using bitcoin as my 100% savings. The only difference is that I don't need the capital I've allocated for any reason in the short term (except in emergency). I have a somewhat reliable income stream I can reasonably live from.
If you'll entertain, its a great lesson really.  Is your investments in Bitcoin to help bitcoin evolve or for some other reason?
Other reasons get complicated very easily as I'm sure you are aware and as Bitcoin stands it's ground, it will claim the advantage over unaltruistic investments.

A most prudent means to attempt to maximize bitcoin investment and savings is NOT to put 100% into it... because then when you need value for $ expenses, then you are fucked... you have to sell at the wrong time.

So of course it remains prudent to figure out your cash flow in such a way that you are neither having to cash out bitcoin at a time that is NOT at your own choosing and you have enough cash to support your various $ expenses.

Sure, from time to time, there could be shortages, but there should also be diligent efforts made to avoid those kinds of mistakes, especially with such a volatile asset, such as our lil fiend known as king daddy.

[eddie13]

- Chinese official pushes the conspiracy theory that the U.S. Army is behind the coronavirus.

This could be the most important part of the news right now IMO..

How much TP will you buy when it becomes obvious that WWIII is imminent?

China blaming us for a biological attack? Them's fightin words..


I think it's something china stole out of a lab like in in Canada, and then leaked from their wuhan lab..


Are they accusing the USA of a biological attack?
What are they trying to say?
Pretty sure we would nuke a motherfucker that bio-attacked us (I would)... So where do we stand?

[HairyMaclairy]

China is already in the process of contention, if their data is correct and they do not lie to us.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/

Infections often come in 3 - 4 waves.  China may have beaten Wave 1. 

[JayJuanGee]

Cool! I just noticed my bid for XMR at 0.0065 got filled and that its 0.0074 now... nice!

Never heard of it.   

[VB1001]

Now everyone will stay at their homes in the hope that things get under control asap and maybe there won't be needed an extension of the full lockdown after this 15 days pass.

Hi bitserve, to do it well, apart from closing bars, restaurants, gyms, cinemas, restaurants, yesterday, when the alert plan was announced, and the president said that "everyone stays at home", it is useless.
If you force a part of the country to shut yourself up at home, but the president says:

That people can go to their jobs on Monday, the contagion will inevitably continue to increase, he is stupid.

Spain as always, making a fool of itself due to its political leaders.

I hope that we can overcome this crisis without reaching extreme situations.

[JayJuanGee]

glad you're OK tocic

hope you can stick around

+1 WOsMerit

 

Thanks for the update, but some things cannot be explained or predicted by TA.
TA always reacts to events and has almost zero predictive ability.

+1 WOsMerit

 

Just do not check the price of the coins.

Impossible.

+1WOsMerit

 

Look who comes back as a "stingy as ever" fuck.  



 


Gotta give you a +1WOsMerit for that...  toxic_moxic... 

[mindrust]

https://www.investoo.com/trade-bearish-bullish-pennants/



Don't forget to take your Vitamin C. *(and heart pills)

[Cryptotourist]

Infections often come in 3 - 4 waves.  China may have beaten Wave 1. 

With all due respect, bullshit.
What's gotten into you??

The real question is who benefits from all this, and why.

Why?
To me this is a big drill.
A big drill to check how their models work in reality, and how the general population responds to it.
Also they now know, that they can lock down the world or a nation, just with the "you're safer this way" narrative.

Who?
https://www.investing.com/indices/cs-pharmaceutical-industry

[Cryptotourist]

@mindrust, I fully expect you to buy back at your capitulation price or better.
If you get the chance.

Nice to see you back.

[JayJuanGee]

Overall, I like your plan.  

The only supplemental suggestions that I would make is that 1) you consider NOT getting so caught up on round numbers or solely a BTC long term strategy that involves only buying BTC on the dip and limiting your entry points and 2) you consider some flexibility on your 6-8 month shaving off of profits plan..  

In other words, I would suggest that create a plan to periodically invest in bitcoin, no matter what the price... (aka DCA) such as $100 per month.... or some other amount that you conclude to be both reasonable and an amount that you will not miss in the event that bitcoin were to go to shit...
 
Even $10 could be reasonable, though since you already have accumulated more than a whole bitcoin, I conjecture that you could reasonably afford much more than $10 per month for such DCA efforts (and not even miss it... the price of two fancy coffees).

Regarding your plan to shave off some profits at 6 months after the halvening, sure that might be a good plan.. but BTC price growth periods of the last couple of halvenings took well over a year to play out and arguably each of them took in the ballpark of 18months after the halvening to really show their stuff.. so you may be selling yourself quite short with such a short 6 month window, and really do you believe $2k is going to make you feel better?  sure, maybe it will, but maybe it would make you feel even moar better if that $2k ends up being in the $10k to $20k region in 5-10 years .. which seems to be a way better investment horizon for someone who is just getting in with a bit more than 1 BTC currently.

Thanks for those suggestions and ideas.
The time of 6 to 8 months was just a guess really. I won't take 2k out until btc is at 20k. I will get use this 2k for a couple of alt projects that I was told are promising. I wish to buy my own apartment or home, renting is ok for my age but I would prefer to get a cheap house or apartment to work on.
Several times when bitcoin crashes hard it then reverses and reaches new ATH. I appreciate that the virus is a bit of a black swan.
I follow some of the things my older brother mentioned. He is quite a success ( for our family)and does spend some effort in helping me with useful advice. He told me he was trading some of his bitcoins and the news cadge that silk road was busted. He incorrectly panicked and sold the majority of his holdings. I think it was for around 60 dollars each or something that seems unthinkable now.

He said that he kept waiting to get back in near his exit price, but the price went crazy.  Soon it was over 1000 USD. He said he was angry for panicking, and was angry at himself for willing and hoping for bitcoin to crash again each time the media talked about it going higher in value . He never got back in for 60.  Even now his mood can darken if the subject comes up. Since then told me never sell.  He has accumulated quite a few again by weaving in and out with no more than 10% at a time. He also does not spend on latest phone, car , and these things like before. Every spare dollar is invested in bitcoin, bullion or home improvement. I intended to do as you mention put all spare money each month and put some in bitcoin and other opportunities.
I am rather greedy with getting maximum gains
( now I Have something I really want like to own a house of my own) and impulsive which can lead me to gamble. I was even upset to have entered at just under 5k rather than 3.8k although I know it is still a superb entry that at one point I would have been very grateful for.
I will soon forget this when bitcoin is 20k.

Thanks Icygreen as well for the welcome. Now that I know I will be targeted with crossbow projectiles,  I will keep the retired police vest that should repel or prevent the penetrstion required to destroy vital organs.  

It sounds as if you are, at least, trying to learn from your experiences and even the mistakes of others, as well as identifying some problem areas that you have, which is maybe an inclination to gamble too much from time to time.

Many people take 20-30 or more years to establish a really decently-sized investment portfolio, and sometimes they do not even reach any kind of decently-sized investment portfolio because they make a lot of mistakes in terms of sometimes gambling too much or failing to capitalize sufficiently or even consuming way too much too soon.

If you are able to figure out a way to use bitcoin to your advantage and even to be able to cut down the time that it takes to build a decently sized investment portfolio, then that will give you a lot of options.

Sometimes you cannot really rush building capital, but once you achieve certain levels of capital, then it can become somewhat easier (at least having more options available) to get your capital to work for you, but it still takes time and continues to take effort NOT to relapse into taking too many chances and putting your capital at too much risk.. so capital preservation continues to be a solid and valid skill that people tend to learn when they are more successful with their investments. 

I look forward to your continued contributions or even letting us know how matters are going for you, and hopefully you will not need to break any OpSec in order to share... sometimes we can also talk in terms of strategies without giving away too much information regarding amounts or other information that might be too personal.

[Arriemoller]

Spain enters official nationwide lockdown.

So does France from midnight.

Looks like everyone is starting to take this shit seriously. Except maybe UK... I donno if it is because they are doing good or ignoring the problem.

As I understand it, UK and Sweden are taking a different approach.
The plan is to slowly reach herd immunity while protecting the risk groups until herd immunity is reached.
That's why Sweden hasn't closed any schools or anything else for that matter, everything runs as usual here, people aren't even using masks. The advise is to keep distance, stay at home, wash your hands often, and use hand sanitizers.
The press is having a field day and social media is full of outraged people, I would not be surprised if the government buckles under the pressure and changes strategy.

Edit: there is also a ban of more than 500 people gatherings.

[dragonvslinux]

@mindrust, I fully expect you to buy back at your capitulation price or better.
If you get the chance.

Nice to see you back.

Am also thinking the same thing... $4.2K, $4.5K and $4.8K (33% positions) would be a good spread to get yourself back in to (slightly less) than what you had before. If you don't want to try and "time to bottom" as it were, and simply get your position back if that's what you're hoping for. It's definitely what I'm considering if we close above $5.5K this week, not that you should follow my non-financial advise what-so-ever, I've been wrong enough this past month

I wish you the best either way, we've all been there. I panic sold in 2017 (when $6K went back down to $5K, before going to $20K), because I had previously got in at $5K before it went down to $3K so wanted to get out "break-even" and not risk having my money drop 40% again. In the end I had to get back in around $7.5K which sucked. Obviously this was completely different amidst the middle of a parabolic bull-run, and I think you'll be fine getting back in, but I feel your pain none the less.

At least now you will have stronger hands when you become a coiner again   Better to have panic sold at $4.5K, with the likelihood of having the opportunity to get back in, then to have held on til some lower level and panic sold then. I think everyone should panic sell once, in order to learn from the mistake. Better now than later.

[Arriemoller]

Silly Billy, you made me laugh   If this is case (I'm not really following UK politics, only that BJ is a clown, makes sense he devolves responsibility), then the fundamentals of being a island country won't save it from the reality of a worldwide pandemic, it would only slow it down at best. Probably the EU states are doing the right thing at the moment, even if I'm searching for rebellious parties that ignore the wishes of the state, I do get it. "Better to be safe than sorry", as Italy would probably. You can't take action when it's too late is the point.

The US is the place to worry about most.

I thought the issue was with Europe now? Maybe I'm wrong, maybe I believed what Trump says which is foolish.

It's all about preserving the effectiveness of the health system by drawing out the infection rate rather than drowning it mainly. But the concept of 'herd immunity' that they're all talking about might turn out to be total rubbish and we'll all melt.

Nothing was done in the earliest stages at all and now they've given up attempting to test and only testing hospital arrivals. A lot of people are calling it a gamble and it does sound like it. I will not be taking any chances.

I do think explicitly isolating oldies is very sensible and I don't get why that hasn't been done elsewhere but it should've been done sooner.

Anyway, anyone who has the option to take control of their own exposure should've been doing it the moment this all became a problem. No one should be waiting to be told.

As for America, look who's in charge. Look at the health system they'll need to shake up and unify. A lot of Americans won't seek treatment until it's too late because they've spent their whole lives avoiding doctors because of the expense or lack of sick pay even if they remove those barriers and it looks like they will.

And then we might end up with a two tier world where Asia went for containment and the West let everyone become zombies so Asia won't let anyone in until there's a vaccine. This will be written about for centuries to come.

Aand, then he just explained all that.
Still catching up, as you can see.

[mindrust]

Another honest thought...

As much as we all hate Tone Vays, I believe he was right about one thing.

Shitcoins.

They are a huge part of the problem and nobody can do nothing about it. (anybody can create a shitcoin and scam others before going to zero) Without all of them going to zero, I think bitcoin will have serious problems, price-wise against the USD.

Maybe they'll go away this time...

Take a look at CMC's homepage and tell me what you see. I only see shit. (other than #1) And people trade and hodl these shits with the hopes of them becoming the new bitcoin. And there are hundreds of thousands of them.

[JayJuanGee]

@mindrust, I fully expect you to buy back at your capitulation price or better.
If you get the chance.

Nice to see you back.

Am also thinking the same thing... $4.2K, $4.5K and $4.8K (33% positions) would be a good spread to get yourself back in to (slightly less) than what you had before. If you don't want to try and "time to bottom" as it were, and simply get your position back if that's what you're hoping for. It's definitely what I'm considering if we close above $5.5K this week, not that you should follow my non-financial advise what-so-ever, I've been wrong enough this past month

I wish you the best either way, we've all been there. I panic sold in 2017 (when $6K went back down to $5K, before going to $20K), because I had previously got in at $5K before it went down to $3K so wanted to get out "break-even" and not risk having my money drop 40% again. In the end I had to get back in around $7.5K which sucked. Obviously this was completely different amidst the middle of a parabolic bull-run, and I think you'll be fine getting back in, but I feel your pain none the less.

At least now you will have stronger hands when you become a coiner again   Better to have panic sold at $4.5K, with the likelihood of having the opportunity to get back in, then to have held on til some lower level and panic sold then. I think everyone should panic sell once, in order to learn from the mistake. Better now than later.

Gosh... I agree with a lot of what you are saying, yet I am not sure dragonvslinux.  

I agree that everyone has to make mistakes in order to solidly learn, but seems to me that no serious bitcoiners should be playing around with all or nothing tactics (especially when it comes to doing the opposite, which is selling after about a 60% correction), and any of us seriously recognizing the powerful fundamentals of bitcoin should be able to figure out ways to incrementally modify positions.  

Fuck, even selling 50% should be really sufficiently enough to recognize how powerful it is to play around like that, but people have a tendency to get greedy... (yeah, of course, they label it "scared," but it is really a kind of greed).

[Arriemoller]

or.....it's just another flu-like virus but the opportunity arose for governments and central banks to use it as a scape-goat to hide the popping of the financial markets bubble, hence blanket news coverage to the exclusion of all other reporting. People are already recovering and reporting that it wasn't too bad actually, they just felt a little bit off-colour for a few days. Sure, some very old and sick people might die, just as they always do.

How many absurd government-sponsored narratives and their 'coincidental' timings are people going to fall for? Never mind, just stay in doors, shut up and be fearful. While central banks pile on more debt to tax-payers through new forms of QE now being sold to us as market liquidity injections.

Or maybe this thing is actually hitting Asians harder than Europeans and that's why they are panicking more.
Don't forget that paper that concluded that Asians have more receptors for the virus in their lungs than Europeans.

[OutOfMemory]

What's it like under lockdown? Are there shortages of things in the shops when you go out to buy food?

Situation in Austria (not Australia) is similar, we are about 10 days behind with infection counts when compared with Italy. We should reach 1000 infections today, at the current pace. About 1000 testings per day are possible. 6k done so far. 1 dead.

You know all the work/life data from fillippone already, but there seems to be a secondary effect:

Many families are staying at home together, which brings them more closely together, in an emotional way. No father/mother is distracted from being close to their loved ones by working all day and spend their earned money on hobbies or "useless" goods. This might be enough for many to question their life priorities, maybe it will be enough to shift their consciousness from being a tiny, tiny cogwheel in the global clockwork of economy, to more important things in their relatively short life than chasing wealth before dying. The economy doesn't care if worker no. 2.122.391.231 dies and is of no more use, because worker no. 2.122.391.232 will happily take his place. And so on. I'm quite happy to see the start of a transformation in the people throug a shift of values. Crisis always seems to bring people together, helping families and neighborhoods to unite. They way it meant to be, probably, until monetarization and ever growing consumption distracted us all.

It may also lead to a new baby boom. First i was laughing about this thought, but think twice  
Many couples where working all day, going to the gym, going out, considering having a baby is too expensive...
Now they don't know what to do with their time, at home, in a nice warm bed...  

I was sleeping almost all day yesterday, medium fatigue, woke up with a cough, pain in joins and muscles and a sore throat. Raised temperature, but too low for fever. And tiiired. That's why i didnt post.
May have already cought the CoV at Judo training last week, maybe it's a coincidence. I don't care, it's very mild. Not even a runny nose. All our kids are also more or less sick a little, only the two youngest ones with a little more intensity in symptoms, coughing pretty much at night. Also pretty normal. My wife is allergic, you wouldn't be able to tell if she's sick, coughing and sneezing and tiredness already for three weeks now.
Nobody goes out, just the children playing in the woods, nobody else is near. We have food stocked for two weeks and enjoy the close family life, all is well.
This is fine. I'll go take another nap now.

[Wekkel]

Another honest thought...

[...]

Shitcoins.

They are a huge part of the problem [...]

What a load of bullocks. It's the same as saying that having 100s of programming languages is a problem.

No way.

Players will converge to one or a few large networks. The rest will die. It just takes time.

Or do you also have 144 types of connectors for 144 different phones/electrical gear at home?