Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[theymos]

Lots of economic havoc. Everything is down; it's like the opposite of the "everything bubble" which has been happening for the last several years. Stocks are down, which is expected, but GLD, Bitcoin, and even TLT (=long-term treasuries) are also down. Where is the money disappearing off to? Are institutional investors really selling everything and then putting the cash "under their mattresses"?

I was especially surprised by long-term treasury yields. People are saying that the high yields are because the US is about to spend trillions of dollars on the coronavirus response, but I always thought (based on past behavior) that the treasury markets didn't really care about US debt. It'd be interesting if yields went way up -- to several percent --, which would turn this recession into a full-blown debt crisis as well. I don't think the Fed would let it happen, though, and I suspect that their intervention would not be enough to cause hyperinflation or any other short-term disaster, either, this time.

The Fed was already propping up the economy, and now they've turned it up to 11. At some point this is going to cause so much mal-investment & disconnection between the real economy and the financial system that everything really just collapses. It could happen this time, though maybe not: the USD being the global reserve currency strengthens it a lot. I've previously predicted that the collapse would come in a few decades. Regardless, the Fed's actions here very much reinforce my skepticism of the fiat economy in general. I'd much rather own a lot of BTC than participate fully in the Fed's/US's crazy game of Monopoly.

I think that the recession is good for BTC medium-term. People are selling now because people are selling everything now. But 2008 was what motivated the creation of Bitcoin, and the same things are happening now. I could see ATHs this year.

[JayJuanGee]

Look who comes back as a "stingy as ever" fuck.  



 


Gotta give you a +1WOsMerit for that...  toxic_moxic...

I know I am not one to talk..but has your text to post count ratio dropped some in my absence?

+1 WOsMerit

There..you happy now biatch?   Love you long time Mr. J  

---

Thanks for inquiring regarding my post/text ratio, and your other seemingly thoughtfully chosen words of endearment.  I missed you too. #nohomo.

Regarding my post/text ratio, I quickly carried out a thorough overview, revealing that you have correctly identified a declining trend of such previously mentioned ratio that was approximately 7.2897621%, largely justifying that I need to UP my game....  HolyMoley!!

Without your keen eyeballs, I would not have even accounted that I had been slacking in your absence.. sucks to be me,  Fuck!  and, I am so delighted that you are returned, better than TP, to keep me on my toeshonest, yeah!!!!  Toxie for pres!!!!

[edited out]

I hope my limited, non-native english did not create more room for misunderstanding than i already created by said comparison.

I conjecture that you (Oom) and nullius will appreciate each other a wee bit MOAR better, once you get better acquainted...  hahahahaha #nohomo.

@Toxic this might save your few days.

2019
26 May https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg51226188#msg51226188
June 19 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg51523884#msg51523884
July 2 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg51677016#msg51677016
July 23 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg51919204#msg51919204
Sep 12 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg52435676#msg52435676
Oct 4 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg52649160#msg52649160
Nov 12 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg53055043#msg53055043

2020
Jan 30  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg53736954#msg53736954

Should be titled: "the best of JSRAW" - what MOAR could any frequently absent, yet still wannabe WO participant want?     #nohomo





Edit:  I scribbled "#nohomo" so many times in the above post, that I am starting to wonder if I may have "Corona virus fatigue issues?"

[Raja_MBZ]

IMO, COVID19 is probably deadlier than most people think. Let's compare the recovery/death percentage of the most-affected nations where actual democracy exists:

Top 5: China, Italy, Iran, Spain, and S. Korea.

Ignoring China, Iran, and S. Korea:

ITALY:

Total recoveries: 2749
Total deaths: 2158

Percentages:

Recovery: 56%
Death: 44%

SPAIN:

Total recoveries: 530
Total deaths: 342

Percentages:

Recovery: 60%
Death: 40%

USA:

Total recoveries: 106
Total deaths: 135

Percentages:

Recovery: 44%
Death: 56%

 

[HI-TEC99]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

Rumours we are set to go into forced isolation for 2 weeks starting on Friday. I’m going to pay all our bills tomorrow & then go & get a load of food, booze & some cocaine

Yeah right.

The only food left in my nearest supermarket was two cans of economy meatballs.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

IMO, COVID19 is probably deadlier than most people think. Let's compare the recovery/death percentage of the most-affected nations where actual democracy exists:

Top 5: China, Italy, Iran, Spain, and S. Korea.

Ignoring China, Iran, and S. Korea:

ITALY:

Total recoveries: 2749
Total deaths: 2158

Percentages:

Recovery: 56%
Death: 44%

SPAIN:

Total recoveries: 530
Total deaths: 342

Percentages:

Recovery: 60%
Death: 40%

USA:

Total recoveries: 106
Total deaths: 135

Percentages:

Recovery: 44%
Death: 56%

 

These are stats of the people who were actually diagnosed though which obviously involves going to hospital & getting tested. The people who are suffering & need to rush to hospital are the weak/already ill/elderly.

There will be thousands & thousands who have mild symptoms who don’t seek any testing or treatment & recover totally 100%. These people will not be included in those stats.

The stats above make it look much worse than the reality is.

[OutOfMemory]

These are stats of the people who were actually diagnosed though which obviously involves going to hospital & getting tested. The people who are suffering & need to rush to hospital are the weak/already ill/elderly.

There will be thousands & thousands who have mild symptoms who don’t seek any testing or treatment & recover totally 100%. These people will not be included in those stats.

The stats above make it look much worse than the reality is.

This, plus reaching "recovered" state takes more days from onset of symptoms (when they are usually tested shortly after) than "death" state. So "recovered" is behind a bit when compared to deaths at the same time. Still, two negative tests are required to count a case as recovered, so death rate may be even a bit less in the end.

[Raja_MBZ]

~snip~

These are stats of the people who were actually diagnosed though which obviously involves going to hospital & getting tested. The people who are suffering & need to rush to hospital are the weak/already ill/elderly.

There will be thousands & thousands who have mild symptoms who don’t seek any testing or treatment & recover totally 100%. These people will not be included in those stats.

The stats above make it look much worse than the reality is.

That's a good point. I guess there's a reason why WHO is insisting on testing more and more people all over the world. That's probably the only way to get more precise and accurate statistics.

[lightfoot]

Lots of economic havoc. Everything is down; it's like the opposite of the "everything bubble" which has been happening for the last several years. Stocks are down, which is expected, but GLD, Bitcoin, and even TLT (=long-term treasuries) are also down. Where is the money disappearing off to? Are institutional investors really selling everything and then putting the cash "under their mattresses"?

Yes, same thing that happened in 2008. Somewhere in this pile of knowledge we call a thread I talked about how in 2008 I was stunned that Gold had dropped below 600 an ounce WHILE everything was going bad. I could not believe it, but everyone wanted cash to buy MRE's and shit for the apocalypse.

Cash is dangerous because the US can print infinite amounts of it. That doesn't matter because people aren't thinking long term.

Once again I don't think there will be inflation because this "money" they are printing is just covering the hole of the "money" that was never there but was priced into every asset and transaction. It's replacing virtual virtual money with real virtual money.

I think that the recession is good for BTC medium-term. People are selling now because people are selling everything now. But 2008 was what motivated the creation of Bitcoin, and the same things are happening now. I could see ATHs this year.

Right. People need to make the monthly nut. We'll see what happens, but it is kind of fun to watch again.

And it will happen again in year 4 of a chucklehead Republican presidency. As it always does.

[lightfoot]

Regarding b): I can absolutely believe that you did not have any problems focusing your eyeballs on her hands, because in connection with your point a), you had failed/refused to write or otherwise indicate "#nohomo" .  

You have been uncovered, unambiguously; sucks to be you.    

Oh yeah! I can wear pink and look FABULOUS!!!!

Mmmmm (looks at self) nope. I have no fashion clue. Besides I have a wife and mistress both of whom have ample boobs. Maybe that's why I could ignore it for a few secs.

[fillippone]

These are stats of the people who were actually diagnosed though which obviously involves going to hospital & getting tested. The people who are suffering & need to rush to hospital are the weak/already ill/elderly.

There will be thousands & thousands who have mild symptoms who don’t seek any testing or treatment & recover totally 100%. These people will not be included in those stats.

The stats above make it look much worse than the reality is.

Well, the point it that those with mild symptoms or totally asymptomatic could still be contagious and spread the disease, eventually making things even worse in the future.
In Italy there are for sure a LOT of asymptomatic cases, and we are debating to test basically everyone or not.
In the meantime elderly people are dying at an unnatural rate in certain regions.

https://twitter.com/QuickTake/status/1239045482665525259?s=20

[JayJuanGee]

Regarding b): I can absolutely believe that you did not have any problems focusing your eyeballs on her hands, because in connection with your point a), you had failed/refused to write or otherwise indicate "#nohomo" . 

You have been uncovered, unambiguously; sucks to be you.    

Naah, I can wear pink and look FABULOUS!!!!

Mmmmm (looks at self) nope. I have no fashion clue. Besides I have a wife and mistress both of whom have ample boobs. Maybe that's why I could ignore it for a few secs.

Fair enough.

You have to suffer a bit more in RL so that you can appreciate what some of us mere mortals might be missing... #potentiallywanderingeyes... guys / gal.

[dragonvslinux]

Belgium corona lockdown is great, just went for one of my nicest ever 50km cycle rides. Traffic lights become irrelevant after 9pm it's liberating! Ironically, not many less people out on the streets this evening compared to previous evenings, much notably less cars... lots of people also having a walk for "exercise". Don't know what it's like in other cities... but not much has changed here apart from more restaurants are shut now. Night shops still open though, so enough people going out "shopping" it seems  

[Indymoney]

Belgium corona lockdown is great, just went for one of my nicest ever 50km cycle rides. Traffic lights become irrelevant after 9pm it's liberating! Ironically, not many less people out on the streets this evening compared to previous evenings, much notably less cars... lots of people also having a walk for "exercise". Don't know what it's like in other cities... but not much has changed here apart from more restaurants are shut now. Night shops still open though, so enough people going out "shopping" it seems  

This lockdown helping millions for exercise enviornment and walks as I was also checking many walking without cars and other stuff just checking whats happeing around.

[Biodom]

Lots of economic havoc. Everything is down; it's like the opposite of the "everything bubble" which has been happening for the last several years. Stocks are down, which is expected, but GLD, Bitcoin, and even TLT (=long-term treasuries) are also down. Where is the money disappearing off to? Are institutional investors really selling everything and then putting the cash "under their mattresses"?

Yes, same thing that happened in 2008. Somewhere in this pile of knowledge we call a thread I talked about how in 2008 I was stunned that Gold had dropped below 600 an ounce WHILE everything was going bad. I could not believe it, but everyone wanted cash to buy MRE's and shit for the apocalypse.

Cash is dangerous because the US can print infinite amounts of it. That doesn't matter because people aren't thinking long term.

Once again I don't think there will be inflation because this "money" they are printing is just covering the hole of the "money" that was never there but was priced into every asset and transaction. It's replacing virtual virtual money with real virtual money.

fits the underlying case of living in a virtual reality...or not.

[Wekkel]

I don’t think this will be the Big One but the damage seems to be to such degree that more must be done than deemed reasonable to keep this from going off the tracks. This time it’s not about saving banks and a few selected crony companies, but also about keeping main street up and running.

There are discussing a $1,000 helicopter drop to each American right now  

Throw in a few other emergency government plans and - on top of the Fed’s letter spaghetti facilities - we are talking about up to $3 trillion annual budget deficits the next few years. The world has no alternative yet but the fuse will be lit.

First, the flight to the USD but thereafter, possibly the decline of the USD.

Watch closely what they do, not what they say.

Edit: anyone selling Bitcoin now will regret that heavily.

[lightfoot]

Hm. I wonder how many people are *not* going to die in car crashes, pollution related deaths, and the like during this.

[OutOfMemory]

Edit: anyone selling Bitcoin now will regret that heavily.

I don't see selling now as much as a problem as selling later.
Economy will take a dive, so will the stock market, and the fed (and counterparts, all around the world) will print near endless amounts of money.
Means that sooner or later many people would sell bitcoin to compensate for income losses and devaluation. I think of early adopters (hoarders, not quite the same as hodlers), having the best investment returns, but also weak hands, or let's say people in conditions offending their living standards by recession.
While it's certainly a good strategy to hodl, i don't know if buying now is as good, mid to long -term wise.
I plan to buy bitcoin, preferably at the dips, but i will also save a fair amount of fiat to buy later, at even lower prices. That $3k capitulation/bottom last year may be a threshold worth holding on to. I mean from the top down, i don't think we'll be getting lower, speaking daily averages.

(edited some stuff to be less mistaken, hopefully  )

[fillippone]

Lots of economic havoc. Everything is down; it's like the opposite of the "everything bubble" which has been happening for the last several years. Stocks are down, which is expected, but GLD, Bitcoin, and even TLT (=long-term treasuries) are also down. Where is the money disappearing off to? Are institutional investors really selling everything and then putting the cash "under their mattresses"?

I was especially surprised by long-term treasury yields. People are saying that the high yields are because the US is about to spend trillions of dollars on the coronavirus response, but I always thought (based on past behavior) that the treasury markets didn't really care about US debt. It'd be interesting if yields went way up -- to several percent --, which would turn this recession into a full-blown debt crisis as well. I don't think the Fed would let it happen, though, and I suspect that their intervention would not be enough to cause hyperinflation or any other short-term disaster, either, this time.

The Fed was already propping up the economy, and now they've turned it up to 11. At some point this is going to cause so much mal-investment & disconnection between the real economy and the financial system that everything really just collapses. It could happen this time, though maybe not: the USD being the global reserve currency strengthens it a lot. I've previously predicted that the collapse would come in a few decades. Regardless, the Fed's actions here very much reinforce my skepticism of the fiat economy in general. I'd much rather own a lot of BTC than participate fully in the Fed's/US's crazy game of Monopoly.

I think that the recession is good for BTC medium-term. People are selling now because people are selling everything now. But 2008 was what motivated the creation of Bitcoin, and the same things are happening now. I could see ATHs this year.

Long end treasuries have fallen off together with stocks because of a series of reasons.

The fundamental one is the necessity of FUNDING.

Essentially, the plumbing in the liquidity system managed by the FED is broken.
No matter how much liquidity you inject into one END: liquidity will ever be poor on some end, even if the major player near the FED end up sucking almost all that liquidity.

So, nothing new: equity and yield move in the same direction, not on the healthy way (QE flattens the curve, thus inducing lower yield and favours higher stock valuation because of the reduced discount of future earning), but on the un-healthy way. When liquidity was abundant you ended up buying everything with positive yield, rising everything valuation (even bitcoin, some nocoiners said, or a duct taped banana).

But now liquidity is a scarce resource, so many actor in the market reverted to cash ("CASH IS KING" motto is cool again).
Cash, not even very much cash-like securities like short term US bills.

This was for a variety of reasons: I think I sorted them in an increasing relevance order

• Banks had to sit on increased cash reserves because of people stocking up for coronavirus related panic. Do you think I am exaggerating? Look here
• Asset Managers need to sell bond because of poor equity performances are a call for investors to exit from their investments.
• Pension funds and liability managers came out of years of low yields. They were deeply under capitalised versus the liabilities to be paid out in the future. So they took higher risks bets trough derivatives. Now these bets are turning negatives for them, hence forcing them to post collateral (cash) to counter parties to offset those losses. Getting this cash, of course, involves selling assets.
• Credit: those war-like times (we are at war, after all) require a stress on both civil rights (lockdowns) and economic rights (the possibility to participate in the workforce, wages etc.). Government are called to extreme expenditures (US in primis), with the possibility of greater expenditures and impact in the future (What if there is a NY lockdown?). Corporates have been using cash in the "wrong" way, instead of investing that cash in productive things, they used it to finance buybacks (someone said "airlines"?). AS a consequence of QE -induced low rates (Another distortion in the free market), they are also much more indebted than they were used to be in the past. So markets sold corporate (both equity and bonds) and credit spreads started widening everywhere (with bond selling off), from US  to Europe (guess why Italian bonds were amongst the  worst performer during the last weeks (Lagarde aside): because Italy record DEBT/GDP, who has dramatic effect on economy when the GDP denominator start shrinking.
  

Of course this is making things worse and worse, as everyone is running toward the exit in the system market become more illiquid and correlations brake down causing liquidity not flowing into the system as everyone is scared to be on the wrong side of the trade.

Of course gold didn't benefited by this credit crisis because was sold (in the form of certificates) by the BOJ, who was instead busy buying stocks as per their program.

Regarding Bitcoin, once again showed that honey badger doesn't give a fuck.
I hoped the Digital Gold rhetoric were true, but instead low correlation with other asset classes showed it is.. a rhetoric only, without any data to support Bitcoin is used as a store of value.
Still the vast majority of players in the BTC markets see it as an highly speculative asset, hence the selling, also fuelled by some technical fact probably caused by the halving driving up the difficulty.
Here my toughs about  this story.

Belgium corona lockdown is great, just went for one of my nicest ever 50km cycle rides. Traffic lights become irrelevant after 9pm it's liberating! Ironically, not many less people out on the streets this evening compared to previous evenings, much notably less cars... lots of people also having a walk for "exercise". Don't know what it's like in other cities... but not much has changed here apart from more restaurants are shut now. Night shops still open though, so enough people going out "shopping" it seems  

Take care mate when riding in lockdowns.
(touch wood now)
In case of an accident they would take you to an hospital, the exact place where you DO NOT want to be during a pandemia.
Additionally, during a lockdown firstly nobody can assist you on the road, secondly the rescue team might be busy doing other stuff, so you might be lacking the proper support in a timely manner.

[rolling]

Anybody has an explanation of btc flatlining?
It's weird, but i take it in lieu of declining.

just a guess but it came in my mind today:

cash is king in these times and therefore a lot of speculation on the price of BTC is missing. what we see at the moment is maybe nearly the real value of BTC without the whole amount of speculation which is responsible for all the noise in other times. look how stable BTC can be without speculation. impressive!

No way this is even close to the real value of btc!

The price is stable because we have market makers involved in the system. They make their money by keeping the price stable. We had a massive dump the other day and then the market makers stepped in and are keeping the price stable at it's current level. If we have a massive pump, the market makers will stabilize the price at whatever it ends up at.

The price only moves up or down when the action is too much for the market makers to control.

[Biodom]

Anybody has an explanation of btc flatlining?
It's weird, but i take it in lieu of declining.

just a guess but it came in my mind today:

cash is king in these times and therefore a lot of speculation on the price of BTC is missing. what we see at the moment is maybe nearly the real value of BTC without the whole amount of speculation which is responsible for all the noise in other times. look how stable BTC can be without speculation. impressive!

No way this is even close to the real value of btc!

The price is stable because we have market makers involved in the system. They make their money by keeping the price stable. We had a massive dump the other day and then the market makers stepped in and are keeping the price stable at it's current level. If we have a massive pump, the market makers will stabilize the price at whatever it ends up at.

The price only moves up or down when the action is too much for the market makers to control.

That's a really strange explanation.
If market makers were buying (from sellers) on the way down, THEN they have to entice a pump (during which they can sell the inventory and stay neutral), otherwise they would be loaded with btc that they (market makers) don't need on a permanent basis.