Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I’ll be more strict on checking the exact first trade at $9,000 this time.


THE PRICE SCREENSHOT MUST BE FROM STAMP’S TRADEVIEW (as fillippone advised last time) SO I CAN VERIFY IT PROPERLY (eliminates photoshop cheating)

Little reminder

Cannot remember if 9,000 is valid or not.
[/quote]

Yeah, we will go with $9,000 being valid

[JayJuanGee]

Cuomo ordered random antibody testing a while ago.

And now the results are in.

21.2% or 1.68 million of NYC residents have had the virus.

That is really interesting data. So we should assume about 250k deaths from this thing.

Not sure how you extrapolated. It's not 21% in the country, just NY city.
Another way to extrapolate: NY-9.8mil, 21% infected, 10K death related to this disease. Assuming linear projection of infection/death at 80% infected-40K projected death in NY.
NY/USA=approx 1/33, hence 33X40=1.32mil in US alone by the time herd immunity (at 80%) is established, unless vaccine or effective medicine (not fake one's) comes.

I suppose that at some point we are going to have more generalizable numbers, but it seems way too damned soon to extrapolate much of anything from that...

For example, if we are testing for the presence of infection, then there would be questions about how long they have been infected, which might help determinations about how likely are they going to get sick down the road and then death rates.  Of course, death rates have a lot to do with both age and overall health - such as the presence of heart disease, respiratory disease, diabetes and overweightness (perhaps overall fitness).

Another part of testing would be antibodies testing versus just testing if members of the populace are infected, and then extrapolating from that about how likely they are to get reinfected.. of course with the passage of time short term and longer term.. such as 1-5 years down the road.  Some things are just difficult to know without the passage of time, yet there are always going to be things that can be done based on what information is known and also to adapt from new information as it comes in (based on science), as well as NOT fearing testing or even making sure to focus on vulnerable populations whether nursing homes or prisoners (yeah, no one likes to have any sympathy regarding prisoners, yet there is both a government obligation towards anyone that is institutionalized, such as a prisoner, and also it would seem problematic to just leave prisoners to their own devices (in a kind of petri dish) and then have that population become somewhere close to 100% infected - and thereby using them as guinea pigs to test herd immunity theories).

Edited for clarity

[Biodom]

Cuomo ordered random antibody testing a while ago.

And now the results are in.

21.2% or 1.68 million of NYC residents have had the virus.

That is really interesting data. So we should assume about 250k deaths from this thing.

Not sure how you extrapolated. It's not 21% in the country, just NY city.
Another way to extrapolate: NY-9.8mil, 21% infected, 10K death related to this disease. Assuming linear projection of infection/death at 80% infected-40K projected death in NY.
NY/USA=approx 1/33, hence 33X40=1.32mil in US alone by the time herd immunity (at 80%) is established, unless vaccine or effective medicine (not fake one's) comes.

I suppose that at some point we are going to have more generalizable numbers, but it seems way too damned soon to extrapolate much of anything from that...

For example, if we are testing for the presence of infection, then there would be questions about how long they have been infected, which might help determinations about how likely are they going to get sick down the road and then death rates.  Of course, death rates have a lot to do with both age and overall health - such as the presence of heart disease, respiratory disease, diabetes and weight (perhaps overall fitness).

Another part of testing would be antibodies testing versus just testing if members of the populace are infected, and then extrapolating from that about how likely they are to get reinfected.. of course with the passage of time short term and longer term.. such as 1-5 years down the road.  Some things are just difficult to know without the passage of time, yet there are always going to be things that can be done based on what information is known and also to adapt from new information, as well as NOT fearing testing or even focusing on vulnerable populations whether nursing homes or prisoners (no one likes to have any sympathy regarding prisoners, yet there is both a government obligation towards anyone that is institutionalized and also would seem problematic to just leave them to their devices and then have them become 100% infected - and thereby testing the herd immunity theories).

Well, it is their projection (21%) from 1300 antibody-tested grocery store shoppers (in NY and NY state) IF test results are accurate.
Re percentages of co-morbidities, I don't think that it would differ much (more or less than 30-50%) between NY, LA, SF, Chicago, Houston, DallasFW.

[Raja_MBZ]

[Biodom]

Does TWTR "work" as a stock? Not really. It works as a service, maybe even works great, but as a stock i say that it was ho-hum so far (down from 7 years ago).
Nobody, except VCs, made any significant long term money on TWTR.

[jojo69]

debart time

[Toxic2040]

debart time

[Toxic2040]

the evening wall report

I hope every Observer is doing well and hanging in there during these troubled times. My thoughts and prayers are with each and everyone of you. Stay strong and take care of your loved ones. That is all.

-----

Bitcoin has broken above a key resistance area today, surging upwards to $7.75kish. Posting a new higher high not seen since the March 12th pandemic downturn. Persistent buys and strong volume catapulted the price upwards in early morning trading.
Below are some charts with some annotations delineating what is catching my eye.   #dyor

4h


D


D overview

#stronkhands

[Ibian]

Cuomo ordered random antibody testing a while ago.

And now the results are in.

21.2% or 1.68 million of NYC residents have had the virus.

It's time to get back to work. There is no reliable way to avoid getting this bug and it is not dangerous enough to lock down the entire flippin world. More people are going to die if we don't get the economy running again than the virus ever could.

[Searing]

Cuomo ordered random antibody testing a while ago.

And now the results are in.

21.2% or 1.68 million of NYC residents have had the virus.

It's time to get back to work. There is no reliable way to avoid getting this bug and it is not dangerous enough to lock down the entire flippin world. More people are going to die if we don't get the economy running again than the virus ever could.

In Minnesota in the USA the lockdown is working in the sense it is keeping people all from getting sick 'at the same time' and NOT overflowing the Hospitals...

Hopefully, some better treatments will come out of this as well. So you will never have a complete lockdown...but I think 'bars' and 'crowds' are out for the near future.

Working the plan here seems to be doing its thing correctly in my sate. So parts of the world it is gonna be like a 'brush-fire' though IMHO.

Also, within this state the 'economy' is limping along, I have a brother who is a car dealer and he is 'still' hitting 60-75% sales and making up some with repairs...and

has a big dealership.

So again, main thing is NOT to have happen which pretty much has happened since the times of ancient Rome, where the 2nd wave of the infection is 4x more than the

initial 1st waves out of I think it is in the past 4 waves total? It is basically math. I'll take the economic hit to have a hospital bed available if I'm one of the 5 out of 100 who has complications

from this and damn the economy.

Again, differences may much more 'dire' in countries and states that are NOT may be sticking to the social distancing plan as well as Minnesota..but seems we are doing better than most days

with this social distancing and the adjustments.... But then again, things may all go to sh*t here in Minnesota with nice weather and other factors and people getting complacent

anyway...how it rolls here.

[jojo69]

fuck the dammed economy

it was pretty much a piece of shit anyway

[Elwar]

I think at this point people just want to see what happens if you lock people up for months on end. A masochistic form of entertainment. I'm sure there's some psychological definition for it.

People slow down for car accidents.

This is like people saying we need more laws making cars go faster...just so they can watch the carnage.

[bitebits]

another fact

I never make losing [bitcoin] trades

Me neither.

Now everybody new likely wants to know the WO Scam Secret how to do so. It is easy but also very hard, many are or will be tempted to deviate from The Strategy. Will refrain mentioning any names but painful lessons can be learnt reading this entire thread since Adam started it a little over seven years ago. It will only take you about 100 days to read according some statistics I keep track of.

In case you have a little bit less time than I do, it can fortunately be summarized: Buy and Hodl.

[Biodom]

@Searing, I am glad that Minnesota is doing so well.
I assume that around here (Texas) the auto sales are much lower since nonessential businesses are closed and you can't do real shopping anywhere apart from grocery stores.
I am working remotely (hate the darn thing), so no driving, same for two other adults in my household.
Called my auto insurance (they already said they they would be reimbursing me 20% for two months) and pretty much declared that we only drive one car (infrequently) out of three. A very nice lady asked "So, you are not driving to work?" After the affirmative answer she said that she would indicate recreational driving for all vehicles, reducing the cost another 14% or so for the remaining 4 mo.

Bottom line: Just ask. They seem to be ready to cooperate to a degree. With low accidents due to little driving, they still have a fat margin, I would think.

Still employed peeps might be accumulating the extra dough because of too few spending opportunities-could be an underlying cause of stock market and btc recently found buoyancy or even some giddiness.

[JayJuanGee]

debart time

What a pessimist!

Can we at least have a few days of bouncing around in the $7,444.44 to $7,777.77 range?

Is that too much to ask? (by the way, I am not begging, just asking simple straight-forward, and seemingly reasonable, questions)

[JayJuanGee]

another fact

I never make losing [bitcoin] trades

Me neither.

Now everybody new likely wants to know the WO Scam Secret how to do so. It is easy but also very hard, many are or will be tempted to deviate from The Strategy. Will refrain mentioning any names but painful lessons can be learnt reading this entire thread since Adam started it a little over seven years ago. It will only take you about 100 days to read according some statistics I keep track of.

In case you have a little bit less time than I do, it can fortunately be summarized: Buy and Hodl.

I question either the feasibility or the prudence of reading this whole thread, and even if such reading could be accomplished with any kind of substantive retention of information in 100 days.. That is 266 pages per day if the page number did not continue to increase, and probably closer to 276 pages per day, if you wanted to attempt to account for average increases in pages per day (let's say averaging around 10-ish new pages per day, while attempting to account for rises in activity during expected exponential rise periods and post deletions, too).

On the other hand, it could be a good project for any newbie with a lot of time on his/her hands to read around 100-150 pages per day, and then either summarize such content or provide a "best of" or take away message from those readings on about a daily basis.... Such a person would end up increasing the post count of this thread, likely become quite popular in these here parts and also cause other members to go back and read old posts. Such a project would likely take at least 9 months (long enough for a baby) to complete.

By the way, I joined this thread at about page number 5,000, and I did not go back and read very many posts that came prior to my joining the thread, except probably the OP and then a few of those earlier posts here and there, as such earlier posts were pointed out in some kind of then current discussion context.  Also, even when just trying to keep up with reading regular posts, sometimes it remains nearly impossible to read very many of the posts, especially if looking at any of the references or links.  If any of us falls behind, we likely realize that it can be quite difficult to just get through the reading of 50-100 pages per day and getting any kind of understanding from those pages and the once-in-a-while rambling walls of text.

I suppose some benefits (or maybe even disadvantages) of reading some of the old post would be that some of the old links will either NOT work or will not contain the same information and some of the images are no longer available (so some context of the posts would be lost because of that, too).

Probably, I agree that your summary of Buy and Hodl. bitebits might be at least the moral of the story in a kind of TLDR appreciation of the contents of this thread.

[jojo69]

you guys get your disinfectant injections yet?

I think Imma swallow a light bulb while I'm at it.

[JayJuanGee]

@Searing, I am glad that Minnesota is doing so well.
..............

...........
Still employed peeps might be accumulating the extra dough because of too few spending opportunities-could be an underlying cause of stock market and btc recently found buoyancy or even some giddiness.

Even though I tend to agree with you, Biodom, that for once, Searing may have painted too rosey of a picture, especially relative to his tendency to post doom and gloom regarding poor lil ole bitcoin.

Anywhoooo.... I would like to suggest (again) that BTC and stock market is not correlated, even if they might be correlated in the short term.  

In other words, I would like to harp on the idea that there continues to be a lot of fuzzy logic for anyone trying to lump these matters of equities and BTC together.  

Maybe such lumpenings are similar to those who engage in errors when they attempt to lump bitcoin into some kind of amorphous concept that they label "crypto currencies?"  Such lumpenings end up contributing to unnecessary confusion and faulty attributions which will likely add to coming to bad speculations regarding likely future outcomes.  

[bitebits]

https://blog.bitmex.com/inflation-is-coming/

BitMEX Research 17 Mar 2020

Abstract: We evaluate the impact of Coronavirus on the economy and financial markets. The response to the virus will mark a significant economic regime change, from monetary policy to central bank funded fiscal expansion. Eventually, there will be one clear winner under this new regime: inflation. Economic circumstances could look like the 1970s, with volatile inflationary expectations. This regime change and inflation will be something financial markets find difficult to tolerate. In this environment, Bitcoin could be given its biggest opportunity, in its short lifetime.

[VB1001]

https://data.bloomberglp.com/professional/sites/10/Bloomberg-Crypto-Outlook-April-2020.pdf

We are ready, this is coming guys. 🚀,🚀🚀🚀,🚀🚀🚀

edit:

Previously posted by fillippone

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg54278606#msg54278606