Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

By the way, cafetools, if you cash out decent portions of your BTC along the way up to $20k or even $50k, if you get over anxious about cashing out too much too soon, then you may well run out of corns at various higher valuations.

You can avoid that problem by observing a Shannon rebalancing strategy.  Rational investing, or speculating, is about sizing your bets.  Kelly criterion illustrates the principle.
Then again, if corn hits $200k next year, I'm going to violate my own advice and sell most of my stack.

What you are saying sounds good in theory, because, yeah if the BTC price moves way too much, too fast, then in those circumstances many of us might get nervous about the sustainability of BTC prices.. .  but, personally, I would get really nervous about putting too much of my actual corn on any exchange to cash out in BIGLY increments.. especially all of it and fuck even 50% would be a potential problem to either have so much cash on exchanges or even dealing with banks or whatever to get it converted over, in the event that I want to make sure that I have possession of the value instead of it getting locked up for months or even longer.

You might need to explain it a bit more specifically about some of these concepts.. but I believe that I get what you are asserting, in theory.  Especially explain what the fuck is Shannon rebalancing strategy or Kelly criterion... at least your interpretation, links and maybe how they might apply to bitcoin... bitcoin is a kind of special beast, if you had not noticed.

By the way, in 2015-ish, when BTC prices were around $250, I had created a decently elaborate plan that involved quite a few specifics of a pretty heavy cashing out of BTC as the price went up, and so I kind of followed a plan for a while, including until BTC prices got to around $2k or $3k, but I found that I was winding up with way too fucking much fiat, so I felt that I needed to tweak my plan in order to lessen the amount of BTC that I was selling./.... because really my more elaborate plan of cashing out of bitcoin was on a longer time horizon.. .such as way further into the future... maybe even like mid 2020s-ish, but the point was that the cashing out plan was not supposed to be taking place in 2017... so I tweaked in order that I would not sell so much.

I might be experiencing some similar dilemmas, this time around (presuming that the BTC price goes shooting up), so I do feel that I am a bit more prepared for larger cashing out of BTC at various strategic locations, I still am NOT really feeling as if I want to cash out BIG proportions of BTC - even if I might end up losing based on some subsequent BTC price corrections that might come after BTC prices go to $200k in less than a year (if that were to happen).

So, maybe, since you brought up those ideas, Millionero, you may want to flesh them out a bit.  You do not necessarily give away your specific BTC holdings, but maybe describe in terms of percentages or timeline and how various BTC price performance scenarios (talking in terms of price movement in terms of quantity and time) might cause you to employ different cashing out behaviors.

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[JayJuanGee]

I just literally merited both of you...

jbreher and I go way back... (or at least it seems like it)

It's like jbreher and I are good ole buddies who love to hate each other.  And, I am not even sure which one of us loves the hating moar better....

At some point, perhaps, jbreher will snap out of his bcash delusions that seems to be fogging his thinking in a lot of other regards, too, and that might help him out.. perhaps?  Perhaps?   There have been times that I thought that I was giving up on jbreher, but he does seem like he might have a few redeeming values, if you don't allow him to deviate at all into BIG BLOCKER nonsensical gobble-dee-gook.

In other words, jbreher might even have to take some "starting over" lessons from someone like mindrust..** I know that jbreher has a lot of respect and sympathy for members like jonoiv, but someone like mindrust could likely serve as a kind of better example that has different issues from jbreher but could kind of complement jbreher in various ways... so in that regard, it seems that jbreher might be able to get something out of a kind of "starting over" approach to bitcoin, as long as he can try to stay focused on bitcoin and don't get too caught up into believing scammers like Craig wright and some of the other nonsense that comes out of some of those camps and ends up getting repeated by the bear... .   

Or maybe the military would be better.  I know that jbreher is likely too old for the military, but getting some back to basics training and not allowing him to deviate into BIG BLOCKlandia could be helpful.

So, in essence, going back to bitcoin basics could potentially be helpful for jbreher..  perhaps?  Perhaps?


**don't get me wrong.. I am not saying that mindrust is really fixed in any kind of meaningful and helpful way, because in recent times, he seems to be devolving into more shitcoins too, but at least, I liked the idea of starting over, which could be helpful four our love-dovey picnic table snacker.

[Wekkel]

Some positive notes on Bitcoin's potential:
https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/time-to-learn-about-money?gmrefcode=gata

[El duderino_]

Hmmm to reach 10K again while waking up ... early morning though satisfied

The many messages of different friends always fun to see

[OutOfMemory]

After successfully combating murphys law in numerous manifestations, i finally managed to transfer my windoze installation to new hardware, while watching BTC go up to break $10k tonight.

#hodl

EDIT: Acronis, if you read this, i'll never buy your drive imaging software ever again, because it just sucks. Macrium Reflect FTW!

[VB1001]

Overcoming the 9,500 figure will cost work, the next step is to break 10,500, if we get there, the bears are defeated.

I did not expect to see this today, it has gone faster than I thought.



(Hi 10,074)  Now 9,892

This weekend will be interesting, FOMODL, thx, jojo69  

The bulls have to push more, at 10,500 the bears will be exhausted and the stampede will be epic.

#StrongHats

[spooderman]

I cannot believe that this thread is still going.

And Jimbo is still doing his morning greetings 

And JJG is still carrying on with his nonsense.

Ah, good to see you all again. Shame Adam isn't around anymore.

[El duderino_]

I cannot believe that this thread is still going.

And Jimbo is still doing his morning greetings 

And JJG is still carrying on with his nonsense.

Ah, good to see you all again. Shame Adam isn't around anymore.

Strange you can’t believe it....

This is the thread of threads on the forum...

It would be strange if it wasn’t going anymore

[spooderman]

While it's logical, it still shocks me.

Shroomskit still around? Or did he get sectioned yet?

[El duderino_]

While it's logical, it still shocks me.

Shroomskit still around? Or did he get sectioned yet?

Not around that I know...

Still the thread is fully correlated to BTC that’s why it’s still around 

[bitebits]

I was thinking an indicator of how immature the bitcoin (trading) industry still is, are the fees. Maker/Taker fees north of 0.5% are common across the exchanges. Compare that to the stock market, fees are close to zero.

There is little competition yet, but the business models of the current exchanges will be terminated once the big boys get in. Can’t see that taking a long time anymore (in a free market), there simply is too much money to be made.

[HairyMaclairy]

5 figures pleases me

Purse.io still being open pleases me.

Just put in an order my wife has been preparing for the past month. Though the low price gave me an excuse to tell her she couldn't shop.

As much as I like the idea behind Purse... I can't support it now with slimy old Ver being involved. Any money lining his pockets is money used to try to twist narratives against BTC in my book

Not sure we should be concerned who invests or operates purse but ya, Roger has been a doink in the past and if he can create more incentive to use Bitcoin through purse, all the power to him.  I won't stop using purse because Roger has a stake, in fact I'd like to support him and perhaps this could be a redeeming and very constructive opportunity for such a guy.

Haha

No

Roger has had lots of chances, all of which he has squandered

[heslo]

5 figures pleases me

Purse.io still being open pleases me.

Just put in an order my wife has been preparing for the past month. Though the low price gave me an excuse to tell her she couldn't shop.

As much as I like the idea behind Purse... I can't support it now with slimy old Ver being involved. Any money lining his pockets is money used to try to twist narratives against BTC in my book

Not sure we should be concerned who invests or operates purse but ya, Roger has been a doink in the past and if he can create more incentive to use Bitcoin through purse, all the power to him.  I won't stop using purse because Roger has a stake, in fact I'd like to support him and perhaps this could be a redeeming and very constructive opportunity for such a guy.

Haha

No

Roger has had lots of chances, all of which he has squandered

Pretty much; he's shown time and time again all he gives a shit about is himself

[nutildah]

Every day he continues referring to Bitcoin as "Bitcoin Core" on his website is an opportunity to redeem himself squandered.

[Wekkel]

Shame Adam isn't around anymore.

I didn't post the "$10k guaranteed" Penguin meme this time. Adam, we miss you 

[Wekkel]

[...] Can’t see that taking a long time anymore (in a free market), there simply is too much money to be made.

You are essentially describing the path to greater adoption. Bitcoin won't become big because of an increasing use, but because of more and more value being captured in this asset class.

[bitebits]

Interesting way of looking at Bitcoin:


https://twitter.com/francispouliot_/status/1258378508860088321

Bitcoin era #3:
- 100% uptime
- major updates 0.13 -> 0.19
- crushed Chinese mining pool cartel
- crushed "vc-backed" hostile takeover
- segwit, coinjoin, lightning and Liquid
- full node hardware/software kits
- institutional $
- 100x hashrate
- 15x price
- 100x daily tx value

[Globb0]

Nice. Things are going better.

Remember though: It's not that bitcoin is worth more. It's that fiat is worth less.

Am relatively confident I didn't pay 3x more for my shopping than I did a couple of months ago. I'll check again.

He accidentally put a space in worthless

[bitebits]

Some positive notes on Bitcoin's potential:
https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/time-to-learn-about-money

FTFT:

[...] “the reasons for using cryptocurrencies as an escape from failing fiat will disappear when if gold becomes money again [...]”

[kurious]

Everyones shitting on the idea that we will bart down.. that just gives me more confidence that im right

Why? Because many experienced Bitcoiners think you're full of it?

Experienced bitcoiner =/= experienced trader

Note that your (in)equation obeys the reflexive principle.

The trail of the dead in Bitcoindom is populated with many conventional traders that think their previous success in other markets uniquely qualifies them to apply the same principles to Bitcoin.

Why does everyone keep assuming Im a trader who traded traditionals in the past? Ive been trading crypto for a while now and a Bart is a purely crypto formation, ive been trading those for a while now too, sure, I admit this time my trade did'nt work out that well, but no trader is 100% accurate, as long I am correct atleast some times I will continue to make money.

'Everyone' is now just assuming you're not worth taking much notice of.   You've popped up all full of yourself, proved you're an idiot in a very short time span and probably joined a fair few people's ignore list.

Now if you want to be read at all, stop digging, learn a little humility and you may over time earn some stripes. 

Speculation is ok, but maybe don't make bold assertions about Bitcoin's price movement? It tends to bite those who do in the ass.