Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Toxic2040]

the evening wall report

Challenging a known s/r zone and the psychological $10k barrier has bitcoin in the thick of things with just days left until the highly anticipated and increasingly talked about halving occurs.

bulldog watch and laugh as cat hang upside down from branch
4h



Now I can hardly tell you what the price will be tomorrow, let alone a couple months from now. What I can tell you is this..I like how bitcoin has behaved over the last couple of months. Several trying weeks by any ones standard and in all honestly the possibility of more to come. During that time when all markets faltered with panic, bitcoin showed measured strength and a rational recovery. That recovery has continued to simmer and is now boiling at a full bull roar by most measures.

Now are we are the top and are we going to crash? I dont know...nobody knows..not really.

What I can observe is the fact that bitcoin has traded in this range for the last 3 years as well as this year. 2017,2018 and 2019 all saw trading in the 5 digit range for a time.
That was prior to the stark post-pandemic world we see today..prior to the Fed's doubling down on a monetary policy of unlimited printing. Prior to corrupt nation states defaulting on currencies across global markets.
I could go on but dont feel like I need to.

All I can tell you is today, I am much more comfortable with bitcoin trading at(or near or above)5 figures, than I was any of those other years.

Not sure what it means or if its helpful but there you go.   #dyor
D

#stronghands

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[DaRude]

This is Faketoshi's wife who has an MBA and the claimed owner of W&K Info Defense Research LLC

12:35:25 16 THE DEPONENT: Well, he intimated that he had lost
12:35:31 17 a lot of bitcoin when that Japanese company - when that
12:35:34 18 guy in Japan, I think the - the bitcoin - I don't know if
12:35:41 19 it was a bank or what sort of outfit it was, but he,
12:35:47 20 I guess, absconded with all the money, and Craig had kept
12:35:51 21 some of his - had - well, "some of it", I think he kept
12:35:55 22 all of his bitcoin there, and --
12:35:58 23 BY MR ROCHE:
12:35:59 24 Q. And what's - and this is Mt. Gox? Is that what
12:36:03 25 you're referring to?
12:36:03 1 A. It might be. That name sounds familiar.
12:36:07 2 Q. And what's your basis for your understanding
12:36:10 3 that he kept a lot of his bitcoin there?
12:36:12 4 A. Because he said he lost a fair - lost a fair
12:36:14 5 bit of money.

https://www.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.flsd.521536/gov.uscourts.flsd.521536.488.17.pdf

Faketoshi had about BTC50 on Gox. Yep, definitely sounds like a creator of BTC who owns BTC1MM

[Dakustaking76]

https://twitter.com/btcblockbot/status/1258928726475243520?s=21



I do not
Hope 🤬🤬🤬

[Biodom]

yes, Novo said the same today.
Apparenly, Paul Tudor Jones is one of the three rarefied "macro"guys (plus Soros and Druckenmiller, I guess).
I am not sure that it is true, there are many more macro traders, but PTJ has a 10bil fund.

[LUCKMCFLY]

It is interesting to see this parabolic model ...

Bitcoin Poised for a Parabolic Push to $20,000 as Elusive Buy Signal Emerges

This indicator surfaced in the months prior to the massive parabolic uptrend seen in late-2017, and again just prior to the rally seen by BTC in summer of 2019.

This indicator’s emergence coincides closely with Bitcoin’s decisive break above a descending trendline that was formed in the time following its rally to highs of $13,800 in late-June of 2019.

Source: https://www.newsbtc.com/2020/05/08/bitcoin-poised-for-a-parabolic-push-to-20000-as-elusive-buy-signal-emerges/

[Hueristic]

Hey, Someone want to PM me a good proxy for US to use binance.

[Biodom]

hey, JJG, you make me blush...i know that you do what you do, but i don't really deserve it (....so much meriiiits).

...if joe007 is here, then I don't know who it is, but I have some ideas, which are probably wrong.

the funny thing is..with all this anonymity you never know who is the whale and who is the minnow, unless they both spell it out, which most people here don't.

[Arriemoller]

Scary times ahead.

Nah. The middle classes are crap and uptight. I should know as I used to be one.

We will move back into a world that we were built to understand. We will till the fields in the day time. In the evening the laird comes round and fucks your wife. And you if he's been drinking.

You are scaring me, we have a local lord here and I have no wife.

The house of Thott at Skabersjö estate actually. https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tott

[jojo69]

[JayJuanGee]

hey, JJG, you make me blush...i know that you do what you do, but i don't really deserve it (....so much meriiiits).

...if joe007 is here, then I don't know who it is, but I have some ideas, which are probably wrong.

the funny thing is..with all this anonymity you never know who is the whale and who is the minnow, unless they both spell it out, which most people here don't.

I appreciate the speculation regarding whether someone might be a whale or NOT, and surely sometimes some of the members here will volunteer some of their personal details, so there is that.

Probably, it is a lot better to attempt to let the ideas speak for themselves, anyhow, and surely there have been a lot of members here who have developed reputations in accordance with whether they are sharing information and if we believe that their representations are genuine.

I have personally witnessed real world statuses get wielded around here in abusive ways, so I really don't consider that purported real world status to be an indicator that is helpful in figuring out whether some member might have credibility or is attempting to conduct himself/herself genuinely, even though we can witness, sometimes, that some members here do have a quite a bit of real world experience and they don't necessarily try to lord it over any other members.

Let's say, for example, joe007 is here and willing to share some of his BTC trading details (techniques and such), and it ends up that in this last round of trading, he ended up losing around $20 million, but he was still ahead in his trading by $40million, and sure some of that BIG dick waving could be helpful to other members, but I doubt that he is going to be sharing many of the actual details of his techniques, and sometimes people like that are making money by purposefully obfuscating their trading techniques because they might have other things going on, beyond just the straight trade, and I have some doubts about how useful the techniques of a possible whale might be to other members (especially more normie type of people) in a thread like this.

By the way, my own personal style of dealing with my BTC portfolio has been somewhat open, yet my approach does not even attempt to aim at making a lot of money on trading BTC... I do not find that valuable as an end goal for myself... but that might be merely a personal situation, but my more simple aims involve principle preservation attempts, so even if joe007 were to want to tout some of his purported techniques here (to the extent that he was being genuine and not trying to manipulate others), I would likely be a bit hostile to some of the techniques, unless he could make them make sense for regular people.  Techniques of whales might NOT really apply to techniques that normies should be trying to employ.
 
I do understand that it can become a bit more difficult to argue against some techniques that end up being successful, even if I would NOT have employed such techniques myself or even considered the techniques to be prudent to my own style and BTC portfolio management goals.

Are you, Biodom, thinking that any of the possible real world performance matters, such as someone like Joe007, might even involved heavy leveraged shorting or putting capital at risk would be helpful to normies in a thread like this?  There might be some other manipulation going on behind the scene too, with some whale traders who are able to be really successful, so I tend to not be too excited about seeing that happen on a live basis, even though sometimes someone with that kind of experience might be able to disclose some of that behind the scenes information and tactics to normies in a thread like this but I doubt that they would and I doubt that they would even share it in a way or in a thread like this that is actually more broadly helpful for others to advantage from such shared knowledge.

By the way, many of us have come to realize that sometimes people (maybe even moreso in cryptolandia) get real rich and are successful in trading, because they are good at manipulating other people, and cryptoland has developed a rich field of targets in this regard... Consider Richard Heart... I hate to bring up a shitcoin pumper, but Heart has been getting a lot of press (attention) recently, and he designed a shitcoin (called Hex) in such a way that causes him to get rich (more rich), no matter what happens, but merely because he is rich (or recently became rich), does not mean that he is actually is someone to learn from or that he is providing helpful information to regular people.  

[Cryptotourist]

Sorry you had to go Joe007 ! That 6800$ Bitcoin short was painful but I'm sure your still in the money...
Enjoy the ride playa  
https://cointelegraph.com/news/new-bull-market-signal-bitcoin-bearwhale-vanishes-as-btc-hits-10k

Hahahahaha

That's what you get when you try to play too BIG with kingdaddy... especially betting against it.

Good riddance... another bear reckt.. I am sure there will be quite a few more of them coming into the space, believing that they are smarter than everyone else, using traditional tools including ones that might be engaging in fractional reserves, just like there were a lot of the betting against bitcoin bears reckt in 2016 and 2017 - they had fewer tools back then, but doesn't mean that they are not going to get reckt when they try to tame the beast with their fancy new purported "bitcoin-taming" tools and bet the wrong way... the potential players are likely BIGGER... so they have to play with BIGGER amounts when they are "taming the beast" and getting reckt moar bigger.

I don't think the bear whale was rekt...after all he/she made 60 mil and only lost 20 mil.
Anyway... joey is among us imho on wall observer and has the liquidity!
Cheers homies 😎

Oh my!!!!!!!

Joey is among us.  Hopefully, s/he is not providing us with bad info.

Watching the two of you interact, well, priceless.


Once upon a time, there was a horny BTC whale called Joe(y)!?
To play his game, he needed many players. The art of war at it's finest.

[Biodom]

I don't think that a typical person can make much on a consistent basis (over decades) while frequently trading.
You can have a great couple of years, then terrible few years if you trade a significant % of your portfolio often.
For myself, I learned it the hard way, so don't even try frequent trading.

Right now, I mostly think about the opposite idea: what is the best divestment strategy.
There is a relatively new movement: "Leave with zero". It is an intriguing concept.
It could be as challenging intellectually to divest yourself properly while living an interesting life as during the accumulation of assets.
Everything has to be done like a ballet of divesting movements, which could be direct donations to people you love, to charities, causes, projected spending on medical bills, etc.
Your assets value might resemble a curve gently bending toward zero, but never touching it.
A difficult feat to pull off properly, too many ifs and buts, like the current calamity.

[HairyMaclairy]

Or you could just build intergenerational wealth

[Krubster]

...if joe007 is here, then I don't know who it is, but I have some ideas, which are probably wrong.

the funny thing is..with all this anonymity you never know who is the whale and who is the minnow, unless they both spell it out, which most people here don't.

Joe007 ragequit Twitter about the same time as roach stopped posting here.

[Biodom]

Or you could just build intergenerational wealth

...mentioned loved one's...but not interested in any dynasties, which turn to crap after a couple gen.

[Millionero]

We're currently  on our 8th green weekly candle. The last time was April-June 2019 and before that was September-November 2015, after we double bottomed off $200.

Bitcoincharts.com shows the April 6 weekly candle green on Kraken, but red by just a few dollars on Bitstamp.

[Toxic2040]

re: wall report

It has come to the attention of the High Command that there could be some talk in the general rank and file about not fully disclosing the extent of the current war effort and more importantly not clearly stating objectives. After war gaming countless scenarios the High Command has concluded that victory is a near certainty and that it is just a matter of which time frame our efforts for phase 2 operations can conclude.

That having been decided..High Command has de-classified this battle plan to be disseminated to all wall personnel immediately. Do your part, follow color coding and practice safe social distancing during an emergency.

 That is all.

[Syke]

Nice setup, but you need to cool the coil.

[bitebits]

Investor Letter, Paul Tudor Jones, May 2020
https://www.scribd.com/document/460382154/May-2020-BVI-Letter-Macro-Outlook

We have set initial maximum exposure for purchasing Bitcoin futures to a low single digit % of Tudor BVI’s net assets.

https://twitter.com/krugermacro/status/1258780503416733696

Back of the envelope analysis of Tudor's bitcoin position.

. News of $2T US fiscal package: Mar/21 (Kudlow)
. Fed announces unlimited QE: Mar/23

=> Assume Tudor started buying a few days later: Mar/25

That's exactly when CME open interest started to spike.

[VB1001]

After the 2020 Halving, Bitcoin will have a lower inflation rate than gold.

https://twitter.com/danheld/status/1258743627280506885