jbreher
Legendary
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Activity: 3038
Merit: 1660
lose: unfind ... loose: untight
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May 10, 2020, 03:17:53 AM |
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You can keep your liberties.
Much as I would like to thank you for your magnanimous offer, I'm afraid that my fellow 'merkins -- many of them at least -- would rather cower under a benevolent boot than take responsibility for their own well-being. And accordingly are making an irresistible force determined to throw away their liberties - with mine thrown right out in the process. As for myself, I'm perfectly capable of limiting my exposure to disease vectors on my own volition.
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lightfoot
Legendary
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Activity: 3164
Merit: 2258
I fix broken miners. And make holes in teeth :-)
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May 10, 2020, 03:22:05 AM |
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You can keep your liberties.
Much as I would like to thank you for your magnanimous offer, I'm afraid that my fellow 'merkins -- many of them at least -- would rather cower under a benevolent boot than take responsibility for their own well-being. And accordingly are making an irresistible force determined to throw away their liberties - with mine thrown right out in the process. As for myself, I'm perfectly capable of limiting my exposure to disease vectors on my own volition. We'll see. At the moment our loving leader is beginning to realize the limits of his control of reality.... More to the point: Requiring the wearing of masks is like requiring the wearing of pants. Sorry, otherwise you smear your shit everywhere you sit, thus society requires pants. You exhale virus particles and infect others so society requires masks.
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jbreher
Legendary
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Activity: 3038
Merit: 1660
lose: unfind ... loose: untight
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May 10, 2020, 03:22:12 AM |
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it's annoying. I'm not a bot !
Protip: You would not want to be. Speaking from experience? #justfunninya
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lightfoot
Legendary
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Activity: 3164
Merit: 2258
I fix broken miners. And make holes in teeth :-)
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May 10, 2020, 03:26:50 AM |
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I live in a nation that can conceptualize and produce this: Nothing to really fear in the long term.
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aesma
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May 10, 2020, 03:28:55 AM |
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Surrender to the virus and you also surrender your economy.
OTOH, surrender your liberties and you also surrender to tyranny. Incidentally, I don't doubt your rather rational conclusions about the effect of what you term 'opening early', as far as epidemiology goes. I just don't agree that the government of a free society has a legitimate authority to order the populace to stay in their cages. As far as the effect upon Bitcoin, I'm not seeing such a causative factor. At the risk of hubris, Australia is on the edge of eliminating the virus. We have 10% of the population of the USA and 97 deaths total. Our death rate is roughly one-thousandth yours. The only difference is that our leaders (despite their other faults) listened to the medical advice. Within 2 months we should, fingers crossed, have a completely open and fully functional economy with no virus behind our sealed borders. Many other European countries will also be in the same position. Meanwhile the US will lurch from crisis to crisis over the next six months, with hundreds of thousands and possibly millions dead. You can keep your liberties. On Bitcoin, I suggest it is only a 50% chance that it will trigger another significant crash. It is really hard to tie the real economy to Bitcoin, and question the extent we should try I wish your country well, but I don't believe in miracles. All what you did is to postpone, UNLESS there is a functional vaccine soon. There are lots of theoretical studies about this postponement phenomenon. Then, maybe, you will get lucky with an early vaccine. It is otherwise not possible to keep below 7k infections in a 30 mil population size country. It opens up, infections would go up. I understand the partial way-stay open when you can, close when you can't. It is messy, but around here people already started to ignore orders. Mask coverage dipped lately to 20% from 60% on the residential street, although we are still under "orders" to keep them on when outside. The problem is that the places with the most infected persons are still far away from herd immunity, so there is no real advantage gained by having suffered big losses already. And as time passes, even if we don't have a vaccine, we still are better prepared, there are now promising drug combinations, doctors know better how to judge if ventilation is needed, etc. We also know who is most at risk so these people know what to do if they want to survive.
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bitserve
Legendary
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Activity: 1834
Merit: 1477
Self made HODLER ✓
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May 10, 2020, 03:32:16 AM Last edit: May 10, 2020, 03:44:35 AM by bitserve |
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You can keep your liberties.
Much as I would like to thank you for your magnanimous offer, I'm afraid that my fellow 'merkins -- many of them at least -- would rather cower under a benevolent boot than take responsibility for their own well-being. And accordingly are making an irresistible force determined to throw away their liberties - with mine thrown right out in the process. As for myself, I'm perfectly capable of limiting my exposure to disease vectors on my own volition. But... Unless you do own a fully staffed hospital for yourself... if the uncontrolled idiots go collapse the health system what would happen if you (or any of your family members) do need it for other critical illness and you can't get the much needed medical care because they are overwhelmed? As much as total individual freedom is encomiable such thing doesn't really exist as the actions of other people do impact and restrict yours. A balance (and it is of course arguable what the right one is) is required. I am perfectly fine and even support some rules like requiring EVERYONE to wear masks in public places and avoiding physical contact, etc... not so much with some of the movement restrictions but.....
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Biodom
Legendary
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Activity: 3920
Merit: 4434
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May 10, 2020, 03:40:04 AM |
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One day, I would figure out how to spot the upcoming fast 1-2K move. It is probably easier to spot a downward rather than an upward move, though. If "Rehoboam" can do it, why can't I, lol.
Obviously, much less calculation capability, but a bit of life experience should help. I had a few good short term scores and a few near misses, so I feel that it might happen. Not sure what is the best venue in such case. Don't want the leverage, maybe LedgerX (options), was too lazy to get an account so far. Deribit is not available in US.
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aesma
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May 10, 2020, 03:42:22 AM |
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Again a red candle, some recovery...it's 5am I'm never going to sleep. it's annoying. I'm not a bot !
Protip: You would not want to be. Some dumb software no, some cyborg I don't know. Or I like the idea in Altered Carbon, with the cortical stack that can be transferred to another body, and backed up.
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JSRAW
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Activity: 2324
Merit: 1548
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May 10, 2020, 03:43:11 AM |
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~snip~ So, yeah, even if some of us might have gotten into BTC as later bloomers (let's say late 2017 or even 2018, which I think might be your story, JSRAW), we have at least had some time to establish some BTC base.
Aug 2017 Are you trying to label yourself as a mid rather than a late 2017? Such self labelling would be arguable, but might be a stretch depending upon whether your "self-proclaimed" entrance in August was early or late. You seems tired bhai, may be you should call it a day. Was trying to give exact timeline (China fud), that's it...
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bhadz
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May 10, 2020, 03:46:37 AM |
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Bitmex liquidated?
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Tash
Sr. Member
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Activity: 1190
Merit: 305
Pro financial, medical liberty
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May 10, 2020, 03:48:28 AM Last edit: May 10, 2020, 04:00:47 AM by Tash |
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The health of a health system is easy established when everone is fighting the same disease at the same time. Take care of yourself depenting on others is fatal. Lots of other counties with no lookdown or Covid sickness at all. (mainly island nations) San Marino, no deaths in last 2 weeks (since 26 April), or the messenger died. USA, ⅓ of total deaths in New York alone and 45% of all US deaths in New York + New Jersey Fauci, CDC Director, and FDA Director now Covid sick.
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somac.
Legendary
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Activity: 2106
Merit: 1238
Never selling
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May 10, 2020, 03:55:19 AM |
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Registration date = December 15, 2013.
In other words, you have had 6.5 years to accumulate some corns.
I bought my first bitcoin in early 2013 and I'm still buying now, so I like to get in at a good price too. This buying is not accumulating for investment purposes though, it is savings. I am saving my money in Bitcoin, I used to save in fiat, but stopped doing that years ago. And in 20 years time, if I'm still working and the Bitcoin price is over a million, I will still be saving some of my pay in Bitcoin. Why, because I am "saving". It's really that simple.
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JayJuanGee
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Activity: 3878
Merit: 11087
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
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May 10, 2020, 04:01:39 AM |
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~snip~ So, yeah, even if some of us might have gotten into BTC as later bloomers (let's say late 2017 or even 2018, which I think might be your story, JSRAW), we have at least had some time to establish some BTC base.
Aug 2017 Are you trying to label yourself as a mid rather than a late 2017? Such self labelling would be arguable, but might be a stretch depending upon whether your "self-proclaimed" entrance in August was early or late. You seems tired bhai, may be you should call it a day. Was trying to give exact timeline (China fud), that's it... Probably, I should stop trying to be funny, unless I put an emoji..? By the way, I am NOT saying that you are wrong about some possible important China FUD in August 2017; however, I recall the BIG happenings in August 2017 was the forkening baloney... And, I also recall that sometime in late 2016, a lot of china peeps got locked out of being able to participate in easy access to bitcoin exchanges because China had shut down fiat on ramps and off ramps.. and largely they ended up being locked out for the whole 2017 bull run.. that china bans bitcoin FUD seemed to have backfired pretty badly on regular chinamen in 2017.. surely not all chinamen, but some of them got screwed into having to find other means to interact with transacting in trying to buy/sell bitcoins.
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jojo69
Legendary
Online
Activity: 3332
Merit: 4613
diamond-handed zealot
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May 10, 2020, 04:07:20 AM |
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At the moment our loving leader is beginning to realize the limits of his control of reality....
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Arriemoller
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Activity: 2282
Merit: 1767
Cлaвa Укpaїнi!
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May 10, 2020, 04:15:23 AM |
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I am going to post something quite unpopular. It will make some people mad at me. This is not certain, but I would say it is a 50/50 probability right now. I sincerely hope I am wrong, but I am worry that I am not.
The US has dun goofed its coronavirus response. The US locked down too slow, and now it is reopening up too fast. With the exception of New York, case rates are still rising in every state. Nebraska, which reopened on Monday, reported a 57% case rate rise in the past 7 days. In saying this I acknowledge that testing levels are so low it is hard to work out what is really happening except we know there are superclusters at the meatworks which are not closing because they have been deemed essential.
We have extremely bad economic data. On some readings, the data is worse than the Great Depression. This puts the political leadership at both State and Federal level under enormous pressure to reopen. So I can understand why they are doing it, particularly given there is not the appetite for the social welfare schemes which have been rolled out in other countries to support workers staying in their jobs.
But know this. By half-arsing the lockdown and pulling out too early, and then triggering a crushing second wave in late summer / early fall, the economy will get refucked. The number one mistake is thinking that fighting the virus and supporting the economy are mutually opposed aims. They aren't. Crush the virus and you can have a thriving economy back. Surrender to the virus and you also surrender your economy. Because when your hospitals overflow and your doctors are all dying and there are bodies in the street, there will not be a functioning economy. Reopening now, before adequate testing and tracing is available, and while case loads are still rising, is an act of surrender.
The consequences are not going to flow immediately. Things are going to feel just fine through the next couple of months of summer. It will be warm out. People will say that the warm weather killed the virus. Everyone will be outdoors, drinking beer and having a nice time. Food and bev will start to do a roaring trade again. People will think we are winning. There will be cluster outbreaks which will be blamed on poor management by the Governors. Some regional hospitals will be overwhelmed, but they will be a long way away.
But come late summer or early fall, shit is going to start to become visibly bad. We know the second wave of the Spanish Flu killed far more than the first wave. 195,000 Americans died of the Spanish Flu in the month of October 1918. There are 328 million people in the US. The Lancet estimates the Case Fatality Rate of coronavirus at 1.38%. Australia's actual Case Fatality Rate is 1.33%, which is one of the lowest CFRs in the world, reflecting a world class health care which is not under stress and massive testing, increasing the size of the denominator. If half of the US population catches coronavirus, and the CFR is optimistically 1.33%, then that is 4.3 million deaths across America. If the hospitals collapse, the death toll has the potential to get much higher.
I think the reality is we will not get there, and there will be a series of smaller state level, or town level lockdowns. This rolling wave of small lockdowns will fuck the economy good and will spark open conflict between the White House and State / local government.
What does this mean for Bitcoin? I believe that Bitcoin is still predominantly driven by US retail demand. I also believe that there is at least a 50/50 chance that the US economy will be fucked good between now and November. The confounding factor is that the halvening will reduce supply by 50%. Normally I would regard this as a sure thing, but it needs to be balanced against a possibly very sick US economy. Further complicating matters, just about every other developed country in the world has managed to figure out how to beat the virus and will be back on the path to recovery behind locked borders. People in those countries will be able to buy Bitcoin.
My conclusion is that we should not expect an ATH this year, and there is a 50% chance that we will not see the AYH again of $10,501 set in February 2020. Volatility will likely stay very high, which means the opportunity to profit from extreme swings and also opportunity to be liquidated if you are using anything other than very low leverage (less than 1x leverage). So be defensive and don't hold open long positions past the halvening.
Good luck and stay safe.
A. Sweden disagrees B. The actual fatality rate among infected is somewhere between 0,36 and 0,2 according to the latest studies in Europe. Not this again... Most of these fatalities stay one or two weeks in a hospital, take up quite some resources like ventilators and have to be quarantined in ICUs. Do you grasp the gravitiy of this? You are an idiot. We are doing this right now, right here. We have doubled our number of ICU beds in less than a month, and we are not using them all, not even close. Is that so hard for you to grasp? Or do you just like to be locked up buy your government? you are Austrian after all, you guys love hard disciplin, so history shows us. Just compare the infection charts of Austria and see who's doing it wrong, in respect to the fact we were a main european covid hub in february. It's even not over yet, and Hairy already pointed out that numbers aren't to be easily compared because of different base variables (number of testings). At least i'm clever enough for an idiot to understand this EDIT: The rest of your "argument" is just nonsense based on prejudice. You don't seem to understand that we don't want a low infection rate, we want a slow infection rate. We accept the virus as part of our reality, we don't lock anybody up, all businesses are open as usual, distancing is practiced, but it is a recommendation, not a law, no cop will arrest you if you hug anyone. And I really, really, prefer it this way.
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bkbirge
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May 10, 2020, 04:16:55 AM |
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The health of a health system is easy established when everone is fighting the same disease at the same time. Take care of yourself depenting on others is fatal. Lots of other counties with no lookdown or Covid sickness at all. (mainly island nations) San Marino, no deaths in last 2 weeks (since 26 April), or the messenger died. USA, ⅓ of total deaths in New York alone and 45% of all US deaths in New York + New Jersey Fauci, CDC Director, and FDA Director now Covid sick. I'd guess that world average number of 36 deaths per million is garbage. There's no way that reporting is consistent or honest among all those varying governments. Little difference than throwing up a bunch of random numbers.
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Toxic2040
Legendary
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Activity: 1806
Merit: 4170
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May 10, 2020, 04:23:39 AM |
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1h 4h
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jojo69
Legendary
Online
Activity: 3332
Merit: 4613
diamond-handed zealot
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actually, none of us know fuck all
each faction has their own set of "data" that supports what they already want to believe
we live in this postmodern dumpster fire where everyone gets to have their own "truth" ... until they can't
only time will tell
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FIFA worldcup
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May 10, 2020, 05:19:36 AM |
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Welp im glad i didnt listen to u all and kept my shorts open, im outta here now
What ? What did you did ...Did you kept your Shorts Open
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JSRAW
Legendary
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Activity: 2324
Merit: 1548
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Welp im glad i didnt listen to u all and kept my shorts open, im outta here now
Good for you Sway. I suggest stay and keep posting. Thick skin + humility is key.. Just saying.
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