Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

......There are theoretically 3 main types of predictions.

1st - Bitcoin keeps the exponential 2x increase by a year.
2nd - Bitcoin loses the exponential increase, but enters a quadratic increase.
3rd - Bitcoin loses the quadratic increase and enters linear increase.

I don't give much chances for longer decrease and staying at the current levels for say 10 years (<0.1%). In the worst case 3, we have two example years - 2017 and 2019, which we may consider from linear point of view. 2017 added nearly 19K to the initial price 700. 2019 added 10k to the initial price 3K. So, in the worst bullish linear scenario 3, we will have an average increase by 10K-20K each year. Therefore, in 10 year we will have prices >100K. Hence 300K doesn't look so impossible to me. And if the super duper hyper epic exponential growth ~30x from 2017 is repeated, then even in one year we may reach 300K starting from 10K.

A note to myself: Please try not to cheat by selling much in the $30K area, while you may sell above $300K a few months/years later.

I recognize that your three calculation scenarios do attempt to categorize how bitcoin's growth might happen, even while your further discussion also seems to meld the three categories into a kind of "anything can happen" but most likely UPpity.    

By the way, I cannot really disagree with any of what you are saying, ivomm.

In any event, there are some thoughts that every halvening will consistently cause a 10x increase in BTC price per halvening period in the event that demand stays the same (but I believe that the more nuanced BTC price predictions do at least presume a bit of a linear increase in demand for BTC in order to achieve 10x per 4 year period, otherwise why would BTC achieve anything more than 2x per 4 years if the demand actually were to stay exactly the same for each 4-year period?).

Of course, these have to be kind of ballparking BTC price projections, since if we look at 10x per cycle surely would result in something less than a 2x price per year increase..  Because 2x per year does end up having exponential effects when extrapolated out 4 years resulting in: 0=1x; 1=2x; 2=4x; 3=8x; 4=16x.. .so yeah, 16x in 4 years does end up being more than 10x per 4 years.. and gosh I have my doubts about whether 16x would be sustainable, every 4 years... even presuming some kind of linear (rather than exponential increase in demand), and yeah metcalfe principles likely account for a lot of these exponential like theorizing that have been around in BTC-landia for years.  Hory sheet!!!  

We also can appreciate that at some point, there is going to need to be some kind of flattening of the UPward trajectory of BTC's prices, but without really knowing if demand stays the same, or if demand rises in a kind of linear way or how much demand might change with the changes of happenings in and around the space, and without exactly knowing how demand might change (even if we know what supply is going to do**) we get into crazy-ass and difficult-to-plot trajectories - which surely, even though stock-to-flow does seem to account for a kind of straight-line increase in demand, it also seems to continue where we might continue to go into the next couple of halvenings, which should be more than enough to get us well beyond $300k, crazy as that might seem.. but still, who knows, for sure?

**By the way, there are so many bitcoin naysayers who seem to under appreciate the power of actually knowing part of the supply/demand formula, which is the supply portion.  It is almost as if we (bitcoin HODLers) are cheating by knowing the supply ahead of time, but bitcoin naysayers still want to continue to act as if in Bitcoinlandia there are way too many unknowns, when we, bitcoin HODLers, are given half of the formula in advance (as if the bitcoin naysayers did not get the memo... or understand what the memo says...  poor fucks!!!!   ).

Edit:  I fixed 32x to 16x.. Seems to me that 16x is a more accurate assessment of doubling each year extrapolated out to 4 years (not 32x in my original calculation)..

[Last of the V8s]

Still, it's Thursday tomorrow, thanks Gott  

[JayJuanGee]

Even though life is good in these JJG-landia parts, I have not quite gotten to the level of abundance to either treat guests or have confidence to dish out cash/food advances.

Mmmm.... I know which meal I would prefer....

Don't be a hater, lightfoot.

Does an AI have knockers like that?
#justsaying

judging by your hat avatar (if you squint with poor lighting and enough drugs), well, yes maybe it would.

just sayin

That's a low blow, vapourminer.    below the belt, dare I say?

Still, it's Thursday tomorrow, thanks Gott  

Haters everywhere.....

[Last of the V8s]

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/08/24/1598288383000/From-bitcoin-to-QAnon--bits-to-qbits/
archived https://archive.vn/WWuaE

Izzy Kaminy has outdone herself

Both stem from the conspiratorial realm. Bitcoin is focused on the idea that the financial system is a corrupt intermediary whose true agenda is to control of the money supply, and further its own empowerment. QAnon is predicated on the conspiracy that the government, and all other notable institutions, have been infiltrated by untrustworthy elements whose true agenda is their own empowerment at the cost of the people’s.
Both are centred on myth-making and encourage belief systems that keep their communities ever waiting for a promised “Storm” or a “Mooning” event.
Both are remarkably resilient to disappointment of their predictions failing. In bitcoin’s case there’s the ongoing failed prediction that the cryptocurrency will displace the dollar, while in QAnon’s case there’s the unrealised prophecies of mass arrests, or JFK Jr resurrecting in July. In both cases the community takes the failures on the chin, rises to the challenge and doubles down.

[Arriemoller]

btw...where is judgement cat sitting on the kitchen table?   meow?

you mean my boss, the avatar cat?

he passed on. seeing him on the forum was bumming me out so he now lives on in my memories. although xhomerx work is so good i printed it out and have it hanging on the wall along with my other feline companions ive had the honor of being companions of over the years.

thank you again xhomerx, your work will forever be displayed in a place of honor.

not having an avatar matches the empty spot in my heart so it seems appropriate to leave it this way for now.

I'm so sorry for your loss, it's always hard to loose a loved pet.
Great idea with the "wall of pets" I think I will do the same.
No merits to give unfortunately, but this post deserve one.

[Biodom]

Tangential to bitcoin, but I just looked at the long term charts of some prominent tech stocks; AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, ADBE, NFLX, FB
They are ALL exponential and in some cases (AAPL, MSFT, ADBE) significantly deviating from the very long term stock patterns.
I don't know what to make of it, but at a minimum such exponential moves are unsustainable, obviously.

When the break would come, nobody knows, but it will come, unless all this means that stocks are already pricing in high real inflation (that is pending) while bonds don't, suggesting a market that is simply crazy. Not going more into stonks, looked just for fun.

Not sure why btc is not supra-exponential yet.

[sirazimuth]

avatar cat?

he passed on.
[...]
not having an avatar matches the empty spot in my heart so it seems appropriate to leave it this way for now.

@Vapourminer Sorry for you loss

Sorry for your loss, vapourminer.

[...] I'm really sorry to hear your cat has passed on.  At the same time it's nice to know he's got a special place in your heart and on your wall.

thanks guys. that means a lot to me.

My condolences vp. I dread the day when I lose my catty puss friends.


(that's a yawn-smile...not a hiss, lol)

She needs a damn good ... shower. All that sand gets everywhere. Ev-ery-where.

What...you mean between her toes... amirite?....

[Last of the V8s]

https://bitcoindevlist.com/

This website lists people working on Bitcoin and related projects. The goal is to increase the visibility of contributors to the space that are accepting donations. If you are currently working on a bitcoin related open source project, submit a PR to get yourself added.

Being listed on this site should not be considered an endorsement. The order individuals are shown is randomized every visit.

huh interesting, some I confess I didn't know of or what they're up to, maybe worth sending some sats?

[sirazimuth]

Congrats to both JSRAW and d_eddie. Well deserved and welcome to the club.
Toxic on deck.

Lesson 1 on how to become a bitcointalk legendary...

-Hang out in the wob thread.
-don't spam,
-don't commit shitcoinery....
-and don't be a dick.

(I know... I can be a dick, but I was grandfathered in...)

[JayJuanGee]

Sideways 11xxx seems like a brand new thing.

In the past we only visited that range during up-and-down rollercoaster rides.

Now we have time to observe the scenery...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ecE91ZBusI

According to the top 100 days in bitcoin (weighted traded volume), we have spent a decent amount of time in the $11ks, relatively speaking - 52 days, and that is NOT even including the days that have disappeared off of the chart below $11,284.

Edit:  I just went back to BTC's top 100 days list, and I counted that there were an additional 12 days between $11k and $11,284 that fell off of that list (since August 14), so as of yesterday, that would be that BTC has spent 64 days in the $11ks in its life (additional days within the $11ks: evidence, here).

I would also like to proclaim that I am having some difficulties figuring out if we are more inclined towards short-term up or short-term down.

Of course, my most recent BTC orders to fill had been the buy orders, but when BTC prices are bouncing around $11,500, then we are nearly smack-dab in the middle of my $900 spread between questioning whether the next order to fill is going to be a buy order or a sell order?  Which one?  Am I giving too much away in regards to where my orders are?  

Just saying being around smack dab in the middle of the spread causes a certain amount of cushion either way.. like a feeling that nothing (in regards to the buy/sell orders) is going to be happening, soon.....

I am somewhat o.k. with NOT having very much happen to my orders (price comes to orders, the passive part), and of course, if the BTC price goes higher then the spreads go higher, but sometimes when BTC prices do not seem to be moving very much, then sometimes even I might contribute towards having more "action" by narrowing the spread amounts a wee bit (which might no longer be passive, depending on spin of the situation).  

[Torque]

Tangential to bitcoin, but I just looked at the long term charts of some prominent tech stocks; AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, ADBE, NFLX, FB
They are ALL exponential and in some cases (AAPL, MSFT, ADBE) significantly deviating from the very long term stock patterns.
I don't know what to make of it, but at a minimum such exponential moves are unsustainable, obviously.

When the break would come, nobody knows, but it will come, unless all this means that stocks are already pricing in high real inflation (that is pending) while bonds don't, suggesting a market that is simply crazy. Not going more into stonks, looked just for fun.

Yeah, they are all pricing in real asset price inflation, which by some estimates is between 6-10%/yearly. So they have to print money and pump stonks to outrun it, otherwise they are actually deflating (i.e., losing wealth). Just look at a stonk chart of Venezuela for where it's going. Just like a hockey stick, straight up. It's a melt-up. The problem comes when there are no more buyers, i.e., corporations vis a vis central banks have bought up 99.99% of their own stocks. Who will they then sell to? That's when the final straw will break. When will that happen? Nobody knows, but probably when main street inflation becomes unbearable (things cost too much for Average Joe to even live any more).

Not sure why btc is not supra-exponential yet.

I feel like it's because Bitcoin still has a public image problem, no thanks to the negative MSM that seeks to slam it constantly. But hopefully one day it can overcome it.

[bitebits]

More bitcoins have been lost in the past 10 years than will be found in the next 100 years.

https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1298563747003486209

[Globb0]

Haters everywhere.....

[aesma]

More bitcoins have been lost in the past 10 years than will be found in the next 100 years.

https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1298563747003486209

I'm discussing about this/related on my local board. Here is the thing : can we expect the BTC protocol to evolve at one point to make private keys more secure ? Like making their size bigger (4096 bits instead of 256) so that instead of making a collision almost impossible, it would become totally impossible ? To fend off advances in computing.

If such advances become possible, then "lost coins" might be recoverable at some point, by people with access to supercomputers/clouds.

Would there be/should there be a grace period to transfer coins from current adresses to bigger addresses, after which older addresses would become invalid, making lost coins lost forever ?

[El duderino_]

Actually......

Its been a long time that some WO regulars have been on the WO

I'm a bit curious of the thoughts of one of theme, he claimed that around this period a lot of WO's wouldn't be active anymore due of longer time down, I always have respected he's opinion as I do respect all the opinions of everyone who are speaking solid and fair thought...
Longer down would always be possible just as faster UP would be as well.

But Majormax I think, please share your opinion how you think at this moment

Cause it played out a bit different as how you where thinking...

[El duderino_]

Congrats to both JSRAW and d_eddie. Well deserved and welcome to the club.
Toxic on deck.

Lesson 1 on how to become a bitcointalk legendary...

-Hang out in the wob thread.
-don't spam,
-don't commit shitcoinery....
-and don't be a dick.

(I know... I can be a dick, but I was grandfathered in...)

Or

-Indeed hang out at the WALL and be humble
-maybe spam? (isn't that what I did?)
-Indeed no shitcoinery, or do it off the books WALL... 
-mmm we can't all be dickless I think or is the WALL full of pussy ??
-don't obvious fish for merit.   (Damn guilty again, did I fished or not before) 
-Don't be a roach, though he's merited a lot as well 

[Syke]

I'm discussing about this/related on my local board. Here is the thing : can we expect the BTC protocol to evolve at one point to make private keys more secure ? Like making their size bigger (4096 bits instead of 256) so that instead of making a collision almost impossible, it would become totally impossible ? To fend off advances in computing.

256 is totally impossible.

[Dabs]

Congrats to both JSRAW and d_eddie. Well deserved and welcome to the club.
Toxic on deck.

Lesson 1 on how to become a bitcointalk legendary...

-Hang out in the wob thread.
-don't spam,
-don't commit shitcoinery....
-and don't be a dick.

(I know... I can be a dick, but I was grandfathered in...)

Or

-Indeed hang out at the WALL and be humble
-maybe spam? (isn't that what I did?)
-Indeed no shitcoinery, or do it off the books WALL... 
-mmm we can't all be dickless I think or is the WALL full of pussy ??
-don't obvious fish for merit.   (Damn guilty again, did I fished or not before) 
-Don't be a roach, though he's merited a lot as well 

add:

- don't be a roach
- don't be a big blocker
- lose some coins
- make some coins

oh wait, already said, ...

can we expect the BTC protocol to evolve at one point to make private keys more secure ? Like making their size bigger (4096 bits instead of 256) so that instead of making a collision almost impossible, it would become totally impossible ? To fend off advances in computing.

Protocol won't change without a hard fork, and you know hard forks are quite, hard. To deal with. We'll end up with Bitcoin Small Key and Bitcoin Big Key, or something stupid.

[aesma]

We're talking very long term here. It could be 50 years from now ! I expect to still be here (alive I mean). I agree that the maths look impossible today, but when deep diving into even just a regular CPU/GPU of today, not a quantum one, it seems impossible too, yet it works. Billions upon billions of transistors in a single chip !

[fillippone]

Just in case you want to follow Jerome Powell sending USD full brr and full inflation:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eig-NOwTpbo


ENDED NOW.
First reaction. They are crazy.

They are focusing on unemployment. Letting inflation running high to "help" lower wages labourfoce to find a job. This is nonsense, they get slaughtered by inflation in the meantime.

EURUSD, XAU and BTC all going the same direction.