Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ErisDiscordia]

aaaaand it's back at 666

[FullLife]

BTC's obsession with 666 is a little disturbing at this point .

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Dinosaur prediction for Friday Mar/07

Prediction valid for: Friday 2014-03-07, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3899 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 637 USD.

Huobi

The red and green strokes are actual Huobi hourly prices.  The current prediction is the rightmost magenta rectangle.  The blue rectangle is the last prediction (see below), and the light blue-gray rectangles are the previous ones.  The orange and grey dots are the Slumber Points, the mean Huobi prices at 19:00 UTC every day.  Each point is a Glyptodon if the hourly volume V_h for 19:00--19:59 UTC is less than 0.005 times the daily volume 00:00--23:59 UTC; and is an Albertosaurus otherwise. The grey lines are trends fitted a posteriori to the Glyptodon Points. The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction.

The Huobi prediction results from fitting a shifted decaying exponential p(d) = A+B*Q**(d-04), where d is the day of the month, to the last three Glyptodon Points --- namely 4040, 3956, and 3917 CNY on Mar/04--06.  The fitted coefficients are A = 3833.26, B = 156.74, and Q is 0.464.

Bitstamp

The red and green strokes are actual Bitstamp hourly prices.  The dots, dinosaurs, lines, and rectangles are Huobi's Slumber Points, dinosaurs, trends, and predictions, scaled by the currency conversion factor R (6.40 for Feb/07--09, 6.12 for all other times).

Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Wednesday 2014-03-05, 22:56 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Wednesday 2014-03-06, 19:00--19:59 UTC

Huobi's predicted price: 3872 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3917 CNY
Error: 45 CNY (~7 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 633 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 657 USD
Error: 24 USD

NOTE: D major

[coins101]

[porcupine87]

orderbooks at Bitstamp filling up. 7000coins to 700 and 600 each. That's a toughy to beat. Maybe we will hover around 650$ for  a longer time...

[UnDerDoG81]

very lame at the moment

[derpinheimer]

orderbooks at Bitstamp filling up. 7000coins to 700 and 600 each. That's a toughy to beat. Maybe we will hover around 650$ for  a longer time...

Unfortunately the only side filling up is the ask end. Bids have fallen below 16m and asks are above 20k now.

[fotosonics]

orderbooks at Bitstamp filling up. 7000coins to 700 and 600 each. That's a toughy to beat. Maybe we will hover around 650$ for  a longer time...

Unfortunately the only side filling up is the ask end. Bids have fallen below 16m and asks are above 20k now.

Monday. Wait until Monday.

[zyk]

orderbooks at Bitstamp filling up. 7000coins to 700 and 600 each. That's a toughy to beat. Maybe we will hover around 650$ for  a longer time...

Unfortunately the only side filling up is the ask end. Bids have fallen below 16m and asks are above 20k now.

Monday. Wait until Monday.

does that mean the market will become efficient after three days of suckering in more wothless dollars before taking the hindmost?? OMG

[adamstgBit]

today was a low volume day

~10,230 coins were traded for ~6,800,000$

price ranged from 675 - 650


i'm pretty sure depth on both sides is meaningless

[porcupine87]

orderbooks at Bitstamp filling up. 7000coins to 700 and 600 each. That's a toughy to beat. Maybe we will hover around 650$ for  a longer time...

Unfortunately the only side filling up is the ask end. Bids have fallen below 16m and asks are above 20k now.

Who cares about the number of all bids or asks? Important are the coins to an realistic level. So maybe +-200$. And what does a sell order at 780$ mean? It just means, that a person would sell for this price if it jumps that high in the time he sleeps. If the price slowly rises, he might no sell at all...

But what does matter are the orders near the price.
btw: The orderbook of Bitstamp.net says there are 7450btc including 700$, Bitcoinwidsom only says 4470?

[derpinheimer]

today was a low volume day

~10,230 coins were traded for ~6,800,000$

price ranged from 675 - 650


i'm pretty sure depth on both sides is meaningless

How can depth be meaningless? The ask end filled, the bid side didnt.

orderbooks at Bitstamp filling up. 7000coins to 700 and 600 each. That's a toughy to beat. Maybe we will hover around 650$ for  a longer time...

Unfortunately the only side filling up is the ask end. Bids have fallen below 16m and asks are above 20k now.

Who cares about the number of all bids or asks? Important are the coins to an realistic level. So maybe +-200$. And what does a sell order at 780$ mean? It just means, that a person would sell for this price if it jumps that high in the time he sleeps. If the price slowly rises, he might no sell at all...

But what does matter are the orders near the price.
btw: The orderbook of Bitstamp.net says there are 7450btc including 700$, Bitcoinwidsom only says 4470?

700 got 8k in asks. Over 24 hours.

Also, bitcoinwisdom is absolute garbage and I wish people would stop using it.

[aminorex]

A Glyptodon is not a dinosaur, and  I fear someone is trying to foist off armadillos on the unsuspecting speculators, who are depending on dinosaurs for their inspiration.  A plot to subvert our animal spirits? Beware, speculators, lest banker proxies inflate the sound crypto sauropod market with dilutive fiat mammals!

[virtualfaqs]

Chinese Slumber Dinosaur prediction for Friday Mar/07

So are we in a Velociraptor or Glyptodon market?

[virtualfaqs]

A Glyptodon is not a dinosaur, and  I fear someone is trying to foist off armadillos on the unsuspecting speculators, who are depending on dinosaurs for their inspiration.  A plot to subvert our animal spirits? Beware, speculators, lest banker proxies inflate the sound crypto sauropod market with dilutive fiat mammals!

Wait.... did you actually know what that was cuz I had to look it up. haha
Should have used this guy!
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2011/02/110203-biggest-bear-largest-giant-short-faced-animals-science/

[dreamspark]

Also, bitcoinwisdom is absolute garbage and I wish people would stop using it.

I too have noticed that bitcoinwisdom reports very incorrect order sums. What site would you recommend to get a correct view of the books?

[adamstgBit]

today was a low volume day

~10,230 coins were traded for ~6,800,000$

price ranged from 675 - 650


i'm pretty sure depth on both sides is meaningless

How can depth be meaningless? The ask end filled, the bid side didnt.

when a low volume low movement day's volume is roughly equal to the total bids or asks, looking at total bid or ask depth is meaningless.

[porcupine87]

today was a low volume day

~10,230 coins were traded for ~6,800,000$

price ranged from 675 - 650


i'm pretty sure depth on both sides is meaningless

How can depth be meaningless? The ask end filled, the bid side didnt.

You mean people are expecting it to break out? So they placing more orders? I would say the depth is more meaningful, when the price of the order is realistictly reachable in a couple of hours.

But this now 7300btc to 700$ might hard to beat, but maybe some of them get pulled...

[adamstgBit]

today was a low volume day

~10,230 coins were traded for ~6,800,000$

price ranged from 675 - 650


i'm pretty sure depth on both sides is meaningless

How can depth be meaningless? The ask end filled, the bid side didnt.

You mean people are expecting it to break out? So they placing more orders? I would say the depth is more meaningful, when the price of the order is realistictly reachable in a couple of hours.

But this now 7300btc to 700$ might hard to beat, but maybe some of them get pulled...

whats going to make it break is when suddenly the mini walls on the front lines won't be replaced when filled

coming soon...

T-4 hours with 78% probability

[UnDerDoG81]

But this now 7300btc to 700$ might hard to beat, but maybe some of them get pulled...

How will this look when we are at $3000-$4000 per BTC? Impossible for me...