Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Richy_T]

Chartbuddy disappears on March 3.

Three days later Satoshi is resurrected.

Coincidence - or did I just blow your mind?

Oops. Forgot to switch him back on. Power was restored Wednesday night. Not going to happen before Sunday now as I need physical access.

[Rampion]

Excellent summary of what is wrong with the article. I guess the fact that Newsweek went "all in" and made it a cover story had everybody lose their head for a moment, and ignore the obvious objections.

There's only circumstantial evidence that Dorian is "Satoshi", and in fact, there are other candidates for which there exists much more such circumstantial evidence.

Actually I don't believe the article myself, it reads as if the reporter twisted the words and facts to fit her theory.

Someone posted earlier a paragraph that Newsweek deleted from that article, which explained how the reporter had found Dorian by combing through all the "Satoshi Nakamoto"s living in the US. Now, if you collect a hundred random people from some database, there is a good chance that you will find one who has a computer or electronics background (even if it is not cryptography).  That person quite likely will have worked for some technology company (where else?) that did classified wor for the government (is there any company in the US that didn't?)  Heck, even *I* worked for two such companies (Xerox and Digital Equipment).

Then you only have to pick a phrase or two from relatives and acquaintances that suggests he is the guy, and omit the cartloads of evidence that suggest that he isn't...

Well, I guess that a shitstorm is going on at Newsweek right now. Goodman just disappeared from tweeter when evidence in form of Dorian's posts written in incredibly bad english started to pile up. She did a VERY bad job and had this coming, as she has been exchanging emails with Dorian before speaking to him briefly - but obviously she couldn't use that emails as "evidence" in her piece because probably were written in that kind of english that SN would have NEVER used. Instead, she used ambiguos quotes from his family members to justify a similarity in writing styles that simply does not exist.

What an epic way to fuck up the relaunch of the printed edition of a magazine that once upon a time was believed to be an example of quality journalism. Really epic fuck up - and I'm enjoying it in a sort of twisted way.

And all in all this has been a tremedous publicity for Bitcoin. The SN myth is growing

[BitChick]

By the way, if you find it hard to believe that a man in the situation of Dorian Nakamoto could invent bitcoin and not cash out a single coin: check Grigori Perelman, who settled the Poincaré Conjecture and then turned down the Fields Medal and a 1,000,000 US$ prize:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grigori_Perelman
http://brettforrest.com/articles/shattered-genius/

I too think it is him.

I do not think it is him at all. The journalist "work" is extremely bad and based on pure speculation, it really looks like this is a prank pulled on her by Dorian's brother.

The internet is full of posts by Dorian (Amazon; guns forums; train models forums; Toyota forum; etc.) and his writing style is EXTREMELY different (and bad) compared to SN's. The journalist was SO BAD and so eager to publish this story that she didn't even take the time to make a real comparison between the writing of both characters - she just wrote on his piece that Dorian's wife said that her husband mixes both American and UK english, which is beyond ridiculous as a "proof", especially if there is SO much material on the internet to make a REAL comparison. It's obvious that Dorian writes a very bad english, and this is very easily verifiable: his posts all over the internet.

All in all there's some circumstancial evidence, but not a single hint of firm evidence. In fact, the strongest evidence is that the guy's birth name is Satoshi Nakamoto -  but Dorian is a physicist and an engineer, not a cryptographer; add to that his bad english (which, again, is easily proved by using a little google-skills) and the unbelievable characteristics of this story (a guy who never spoke to his family about his project and went to greath lengths to be anonymous "tacitly admits" his involvment to a journalist and uses his real name to publish the foundational paper).

I bet Dorian is not SN. It just doesn't add up. If his birth name was not "Satoshi Nakamoto", everybody would have been laughing at this whole story. It's much more likely SN is Nick Szabo - the evidence is still circumstancial but orders of magnitude stronger in his case. For Christ sake, Nick Szabo was the "inventor" of the "smart contract" concept, his work revolves around the concept of eliminating trust on third parties using decentralized ledgers and he created "bit gold" (which is pure and simply the precursor of Bitcoin), working on it for decades until he stopped publishing papers on electronic cash around 2005 (his last post on bit gold was written on his blog on 2008, just little before the Bitcoin paper was published - what a coincidence). Plus, Szabo's and Satoshi's writing styles are very similar, they use the very same terms and concepts and their work revolves around the very same point. It really looks like Szabo found the "solution to the problem" and created bitcoin, and that's why he never published again about electronic cash/trustless sytems - which were the center of his work for more than a decade. He never wrote about bitcoin and ignores all the comments about bitcoin on his blog, which seems incredibly shady given the fact that he is clearly the inspirator of such a system…  All that might be circumstancial, but the links (in form of PAPERS and WORKS, not speculation by family members and retarded journalists) are SO strong they cannot be ignored.

IMO all this Dorian story is a ludicrous joke that leverages on just three things: A) Dorian's name; B) the fact Dorian worked on classified projects; C) the fact Dorian is a libertarian and quite "paranoid" when it comes to Government - which is simply what you would expect from anyone who has worked for the Government - he just knows first hand that Govs spy and apply violence on people.

The Newsweek journalists should be ashamed.

this really make sense, also I really was curious about the identity of Satoshi, but I didn't pay this mystery allot of attention until now, I believed 90% of that article, after 24 hours and all the evidence it dropped to 40% but your post really putted me off Dorian.

but again, it is the first time when I really badly want to know about the identity of Satoshi, I know I wont achieve anything with that, but I will have peace with my mind, it wouldn't be strange if the whole article thing is set up or just an attempt to make the real Satoshi reveal him self in a try to save Dorian's life...

Just read some of Nick Szabo's writings in his blog.  One thing I can see is that he is brilliant in many different areas.  His paper on Bit Gold is truly fascinating. http://unenumerated.blogspot.com/2005/12/bit-gold.html  

I think it would be in all of our best interest to just let "Satoshi" remain anonymous though.  If for whatever reason he values his anonymity more than the "bit gold" he created, we need to give him that at least out of respect.  Of course I am curious who this person is.  It is human nature to be that way, but I think the entire Dorian Nakamoto media frenzy should further cement the real Satoshi's desire to stay out of the limelight.  It just isn't worth a free sushi lunch.

[oda.krell]

Excellent summary of what is wrong with the article. I guess the fact that Newsweek went "all in" and made it a cover story had everybody lose their head for a moment, and ignore the obvious objections.

There's only circumstantial evidence that Dorian is "Satoshi", and in fact, there are other candidates for which there exists much more such circumstantial evidence.

Actually I don't believe the article myself, it reads as if the reporter twisted the words and facts to fit her theory.

Someone posted earlier a paragraph that Newsweek deleted from that article, which explained how the reporter had found Dorian by combing through all the "Satoshi Nakamoto"s living in the US. Now, if you collect a hundred random people from some database, there is a good chance that you will find one who has a computer or electronics background (even if it is not cryptography).  That person quite likely will have worked for some technology company (where else?) that did classified wor for the government (is there any company in the US that didn't?)  Heck, even *I* worked for two such companies (Xerox and Digital Equipment).

Then you only have to pick a phrase or two from relatives and acquaintances that suggests he is the guy, and omit the cartloads of evidence that suggest that he isn't...

I disagree. There is /some/ evidence that Dorian = SN, it's just not enough to call it a scoop. A case that is made, by the way, in an excellent fashion by Felix Salmon of Reuters in here. He's a rather educated Bitcoin critic, by the, you might like him. Has a bet going on with Ben Horowitz about where btc will be 5 years from now. Anyway, I suggest that anyone who read the article in Newsweek reads Felix' one as well. forgive his slight abuse of Bayesian probability, he just needed to throw that around so he could make a point about rejecting a prior ;)

[oda.krell]

Guys, we need to leave Dorian alone so he can get back to CCing his MFing trains.

Seriously. I don't understand the fascination. The dude clearly wants to be left alone.

So what?

Look, I understand the Newsweek article is pretty shite, but just because some/many of us are kind of big into privacy doesn't mean that nosing around in business that isn't ours isn't a deeply human desire.

And I'm completely serious: on a rational level, I agree with you. But the undeniable monkey brain part of me *is* wondering who is SN, and wants to see him interviewed and photographed.

So I can't act all surprised that the media tries to do just that, if I can see that desire to have him revealed inside myself.

[hdbuck]

Guys, we need to leave Dorian alone so he can get back to CCing his MFing trains.

Seriously. I don't understand the fascination. The dude clearly wants to be left alone.

[micalith]

Guys, we need to leave Dorian alone so he can get back to CCing his MFing trains.

Seriously. I don't understand the fascination. The dude clearly wants to be left alone.

 

[JayJuanGee]

I don't understand the meaning of 143 million days destroyed... ...?  What could that mean...?   I mean 500 thousand years destroyed... but none of us are going to live that long.. and so what's the significance?

the way you have been throwing your weight around in here lately I expected better

I have little weight to throw around.   

[dreamspark]

Big bid wall just removed from $620.

[kkaspar]

It will probably go to 600, then bounce back to 620 because many think that this was "just to test 600", and then back to 600 and below because no one still wants to buy. Slow downfalls caused by denial are the most boring kind..

[JayJuanGee]

it is a tough thread to keep up with, you got an avatar, you get a pass

How do I get an avatar?

[machasm]

Just read some of Nick Szabo's writings in his blog.  One thing I can see is that he is brilliant in many different areas.  His paper on Bit Gold is truly fascinating. http://unenumerated.blogspot.com/2005/12/bit-gold.html 

I think it would be in all of our best interest to just let "Satoshi" remain anonymous though.  If for whatever reason he values his anonymity more than the "bit gold" he created, we need to give him that at least out of respect.  Of course I am curious who this person is.  It is human nature to be that way, but I think the entire Dorian Nakamoto media frenzy should further cement the real Satoshi's desire to stay out of the limelight.  It just isn't worth a free sushi lunch.

Fascinating article. Seems he was thinking of Bitcoin around the time it was invented! Could this be SN??? :-)

[Loozik]

By the way, if you find it hard to believe that a man in the situation of Dorian Nakamoto could invent bitcoin and not cash out a single coin: check Grigori Perelman, who settled the Poincaré Conjecture and then turned down the Fields Medal and a 1,000,000 US$ prize:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grigori_Perelman
http://brettforrest.com/articles/shattered-genius/

I too think it is him.

I do not think it is him at all.

By ''him'' I meant Perelman. I have been having this thought Satoshi is Perelman for a few months after I watched a documentary on Perelman.

[Walsoraj]

Satoshi = John Titor.

[kkaspar]

By the way, if you find it hard to believe that a man in the situation of Dorian Nakamoto could invent bitcoin and not cash out a single coin: check Grigori Perelman, who settled the Poincaré Conjecture and then turned down the Fields Medal and a 1,000,000 US$ prize:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grigori_Perelman
http://brettforrest.com/articles/shattered-genius/

I too think it is him.

I do not think it is him at all.

By ''him'' I meant Perelman. I have been having this thought Satoshi is Perelman for a few months after I watched a documentary on Perelman.

Doubt that Perelman would create bitcoin with a system, where half of the coins come in 5 years and other half in about 120. This was not created in keeping fair balance in mind, but to have a strong starting momentum and rapid initial growth. Perelman has been more idealistic then that.

[AlexGR]

Satoshi = John Titor.

You are close, in a way. Satoshi is, "somewhat" of a time traveler, bringing the future protocols of humanity's modus operandi to this day and age.

[elasticband]

Satoshi was hal finney.

[JayJuanGee]

As I wrote that it is absurd that we were going up, everybody was bashing on me and was writing "to the moon" 

Now we go down and these morons are silent.

Thanks to your "to tha moon" BS I also get in panic and bought @685 with every money I had (50K). And now I´m fucked.

Surely we are all making estimates about what to do based on our information and knowledge.. .and sometimes based on what others say. 

In my thinking it is pretty unlikely that you are fucked at that $685 buy-in price, unless you sell and lock in your losses  then you would be fucked.  My average buy in price is around that same amount and I am NOT worried (but I only have invested about half that amount, so far, and my investments are diversified.... into other things as well.... so I am prepared to lose all, if things were to go too sour). 

Anyhow, I am buying more BTC if the price goes into the $500s, which may be soon... but I only buy in small increments.. maybe 1 BTC at a time, or less.  if the price goes lower, I will buy more.. but I also have a buy budget... only a certain amount at a time. 

I'm NOT selling or considering selling based on the news that I have NOW in front of me (unless I know for sure the price is going further down by like 10% from my sell, then I may attempt to increase my holdings buy buying back in at the lower price).  At this time, I expect that if I were to sell, then the price would reverse and start to go back up. 

Also, I expect within a week or so, we should be back into the upper 600s... and within a couple of weeks.. maybe stretching out into the 1 month time frame we should be between 750 and 850 area....

Of course, I could be wrong... and that wouldn't be the first time... .. so we each need to go with our gut and our risk profile and our current diversification of investments to make our decisions.

[BitChick]

Satoshi was hal finney.

Nick Szabo mentions Hal Finney in his "Bit Gold" blog written in 2008

Hal Finney has implemented a variant of bit gold called RPOW (Reusable Proofs of Work

Source: http://unenumerated.blogspot.com/2005/12/bit-gold.html

[jojo69]

it is a tough thread to keep up with, you got an avatar, you get a pass

How do I get an avatar?

you had to have one uploaded before the hack