Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[oda.krell]

You're right about the rate of change being lower.

Y'all are so habituated to logarithmic modelling that you can't even see an increase in the rate of change.  You can only see a decline in the rate of growth.

Ah, that's probably my more fundamental mistake.  I said "expansion" which to you implies a rate of growth, and not unreasonably so.

Yeah, you'll have to take that one on yourself. Makes more sense most of time to speak about rate of growth then rate of change in Bitcoinia, almost always when looking at larger time spans, so most of us wear log goggles .

That said, I agree with your point in principle, like I wrote above: the addresses graph looks nothing like that of 2011.

[JayJuanGee]

to which I say: WHERE THE HELL IS MY CHOICE TO LIVE WITHOUT A GOVERNMENT?

I am very curious what no government means to you, and why you'd want to live in a place without one. I mean, it's one thing to want less government intrusion, but are we talking less/no taxes, or are we talking no police department, no public schooling, no fire department. Where do you draw the line?

Oh yeah and about the eternal "what about the roads/fire department/schools/etc." - let's build them. Now that we have Blockchain technology and an increasingly stable currency on top of it we can build all sorts of things on a voluntary and decentralized basis at least for the reason that we don't want to be dependent on the government providing these services. Wouldn't that be a neat thing? Grow the institutions to replace the current system from the ground up. Let's plant some seeds.

Yeah, let's build them! Let's take your knowledge of building roads, my knowledge of building roads, and combined, I'm willing to bet that we'll have a total of zero knowledge of how to build roads. Since we can't do it, someone will have to. But that someone is going to want to be paid for their investment/hard work, so you'll probably have to pay tolls every few miles. Oh, wait, some people can't afford those tolls. Those people better stay home or get ready to walk it, because they're fucked.

The same logic can be applied to pretty much everything else. It's a good society...for those who can afford it. But hey, at least we don't need those poor deadbeats mooching off our roads and having police protection and shit. That's reserved for the people who deserve it. That's for the people with wealth.

Dreams and reality rarely intersect.

Well put, Octaft. 

I was going to make some similar point about pie in the sky about some of the simplistic points that some posters are making when they believe that "public" services are going to be voluntarily picked up by private entities in the event of NO government.  And, our example need NOT only be roads, but that is a good one just to illustrate a point on one topic.

Accordingly, in order to evolve in that direction of potentially less government (whether we can ever make it to NO government would be another story), we would need to plan, rather than willy-nilly elimination.

[N12]

You're right about the rate of change being lower.

Y'all are so habituated to logarithmic modelling that you can't even see an increase in the rate of change.  You can only see a decline in the rate of growth.

Ah, that's probably my more fundamental mistake.  I said "expansion" which to you implies a rate of growth, and not unreasonably so.

Okay, now I get what you mean. Sorry about that misunderstanding, I was looking at the growth rate of 2011 vs. 2013/2014. I actually think it's good evidence against a 2011 bear market case that there is no decrease of unique addresses even 3-4 months after the top. Thanks for pointing it out to me, I didn't look at that before.

[freebit13]

Well put, Octaft.  

I was going to make some similar point about pie in the sky about some of the simplistic points that some posters are making when they believe that "public" services are going to be voluntarily picked up by private entities in the event of NO government.  And, our example need NOT only be roads, but that is a good one just to illustrate a point on one topic.

Accordingly, in order to evolve in that direction of potentially less government (whether we can ever make it to NO government would be another story), we would need to plan, rather than willy-nilly elimination.

Ok, then let's not be simplistic and just stick to roads... what other 'public' services can you think of that nobody would voluntarily pick up for money?

Oh and to clear up another misconception, 'voluntary interactions' doesn't mean 'for free', it means you decide to do it voluntarily, out of your own free will.

P.S. oh yeah and how are these 'poor' workers getting to work on the bus at the moment, is it free where you live?

[freebit13]

Or corporations choke job offerings for a while, until people are outbidding each other to work for bottom dollar. How certain can you be that will not happen?

Not if corporations are run and managed using blockchain technology (I know it's not been invented yet)... those evil bastards will go out of business real quick 

It HAS been invented.  The bitcoin network itself is a distributed autonomous corporation.

Too true, my bad, sorry. I forgot we are all stock hodlers in Bitcoin

[octaft]

Yeah, let's build them! Let's take your knowledge of building roads, my knowledge of building roads, and combined, I'm willing to bet that we'll have a total of zero knowledge of how to build roads. Since we can't do it, someone will have to. But that someone is going to want to be paid for their investment/hard work, so you'll probably have to pay tolls every few miles. Oh, wait, some people can't afford those tolls. Those people better stay home or get ready to walk it, because they're fucked.

The same logic can be applied to pretty much everything else. It's a good society...for those who can afford it. But hey, at least we don't need those poor deadbeats mooching off our roads and having police protection and shit. That's reserved for the people who deserve it. That's for the people with wealth.

Dreams and reality rarely intersect.

The above would be perfect. I would love for all roads to be build by private organizations and them charging toll. If you don't want to or cannot pay you have no business using the road. Of course this is only one of the government solutions.

I would love to live in a government-less society. We will get there the long way around by slowly eroding the governments away until there is nothing left.

Yeah, fuck those assholes who like, need to drive to work and feed their kids and shit. They don't deserve jobs if their job doesn't pay them enough to pay tolls.

[aminorex]

Yeah, let's build them! Let's take your knowledge of building roads, my knowledge of building roads, and combined, I'm willing to bet that we'll have a total of zero knowledge of how to build roads. Since we can't do it, someone will have to. But that someone is going to want to be paid for their investment/hard work, so you'll probably have to pay tolls every few miles. Oh, wait, some people can't afford those tolls. Those people better stay home or get ready to walk it, because they're fucked.

The same logic can be applied to pretty much everything else. It's a good society...for those who can afford it. But hey, at least we don't need those poor deadbeats mooching off our roads and having police protection and shit. That's reserved for the people who deserve it. That's for the people with wealth.

Dreams and reality rarely intersect.

The above would be perfect. I would love for all roads to be build by private organizations and them charging toll. If you don't want to or cannot pay you have no business using the road. Of course this is only one of the government solutions.

I would love to live in a government-less society. We will get there the long way around by slowly eroding the governments away until there is nothing left.

Governments often sponsor toll roads.  It's not like toll roads vs. freeways are an example of government vs. private infrastructure development.  And it's not like people are paying less because they do it through taxes.   And I'm not even sure anyone is saying that they specifically want to stop having highway departments, although I suppose there might be someone.  In a totally free market, people would make toll roads when the deemed it competitively profitable.  They would compete with other routes, and with other modes of transportation, such as rail.  Things would be priced on supply and demand, which would be more efficient than taxation and patronage.  But getting land for roads would be hard without eminent domain.  I don't see highway departments going away, even if all highways are privately operated.  And when an operator goes bankrupt, the state will be there to manage the bankruptcy.  Unless you have private arbitration for bankruptcies.  All these things will inevitably work out no matter how they are organized, because people want to travel.  If you can provide a way for poor people to travel, you will get their business, and their money.  This is true regardless of the role of the state.  If Eisenhower never built the national defense highway system, we might have cross-country bullet trains today.  Who can say?  Market opportunities were lost, certainly.  Others were created.  Poor people still can't travel unless they can get a ride.  On toll roads, they would probably pool, use a bus, something efficient.  Freeways create a lot of social damage too.

[freebit13]

Yeah, fuck those assholes who like, need to drive to work and feed their kids and shit. They don't deserve jobs if their job doesn't pay them enough to pay tolls.

The money saved on taxes, car license and registration, fuel tax etc. would 'probably' cover double the toll expenses...

Again, how do these people get to work at the moment... is it free? It costs a lot to own a car, the poor people you are talking about sound like they don't even have 2 dollars to rub together and can hardly be compared with people who own cars and have jobs.

[JayJuanGee]

When do you expect this supposed governmental collapse?  In the lifetime of anyone reading this thread?  within 70 years?  I probably only have 30-40 more years left in me, at best, if I'm lucky.  

YOU are talking pie in the sky, if you think that you have a vision and a prediction about the downfall of government that is more sound and more realistic than anyone else's b/c your prediction is based on some kind of mathematics (that certainly cannot fail to prove correct, yeah right).

It's collapsing now. It may seem slow, but from a historical perspective, it's much faster than the decline of Rome. The standard of living in the U.S. peaked in the last half of the 20th century and is now declining. Europe is much the same.

U.S. government debt is now greater than 100% of GDP. We are literally living on borrowed time. Government entitlement programs are an actuarial time bomb. The collapse can be dampened (and prolonged and exacerbated) by money printing, but that's just an accounting trick. We are slowly becoming a third world nation.

YOU are NOT saying anything NEW here.  We know that there are a lot of problems with the american government and its printing of money to give to the rich.

This governmental system could implode in the coming weeks or it could take 10-50 years.  I would wager, that it is pretty likely that a large majority of the current governmental disfunction is going to hobble along for a good 20-30 years.... However, NO one really knows the future, exactly...   And some unexpected events could totally change the trajectory

[octaft]

Yeah, fuck those assholes who like, need to drive to work and feed their kids and shit. They don't deserve jobs if their job doesn't pay them enough to pay tolls.

The money saved on taxes, car license and registration, fuel tax etc. would 'probably' cover double the toll expenses...

Again, how do these people get to work at the moment... is it free? It costs a lot to own a car, the poor people you are talking about sound like they don't even have 2 dollars to rub together and can hardly be compared with people who own cars and have jobs.

Unskilled labor does not pay very well, and it would get much worse without a minimum wage. What you would be talking about are the homeless, but even people with jobs often struggle, and working for $4 an hour, tax free as it may be, will not help very much.

[aminorex]

Yeah, fuck those assholes who like, need to drive to work and feed their kids and shit. They don't deserve jobs if their job doesn't pay them enough to pay tolls.

I think you're fighting against a cartoon strawman.  In reality, people organize to get things done, to improve their communities.  They organize to build roads.  If the market isn't supplying a need, they start enterprises, because that's an opportunity.  The state doesn't change that picture fundamentally.  

[zyk]

Yeah, fuck those assholes who like, need to drive to work and feed their kids and shit. They don't deserve jobs if their job doesn't pay them enough to pay tolls.

The money saved on taxes, car license and registration, fuel tax etc. would 'probably' cover double the toll expenses...

Again, how do these people get to work at the moment... is it free? It costs a lot to own a car, the poor people you are talking about sound like they don't even have 2 dollars to rub together and can hardly be compared with people who own cars and have jobs.

we need to tell them that they can get rich and have a carefree life just by shorting the hell out of craptofuck - currencies

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Well put, Octaft.  

I was going to make some similar point about pie in the sky about some of the simplistic points that some posters are making when they believe that "public" services are going to be voluntarily picked up by private entities in the event of NO government.  And, our example need NOT only be roads, but that is a good one just to illustrate a point on one topic.

Accordingly, in order to evolve in that direction of potentially less government (whether we can ever make it to NO government would be another story), we would need to plan, rather than willy-nilly elimination.

Ok, then let's not be simplistic and just stick to roads... what other 'public' services can you think of that nobody would voluntarily pick up for money?

Oh and to clear up another misconception, 'voluntary interactions' doesn't mean 'for free', it means you decide to do it voluntarily, out of your own free will.

P.S. oh yeah and how are these 'poor' workers getting to work on the bus at the moment, is it free where you live?

Certainly, there are going to be varying degrees to which services will be provided depending upon how necessary the contributors believe the services to be.  There are public benefits in many services that are regulated, as well.

We could name almost anything.

Water, gas, electricity, airwaves, hospitals, schools, security, policing, military, busses, trains, planes, labor, financial...


It is a quagmire.. and each service has its own various argument and priorities.  I still DO NOT see the point in getting into a big discussion of each of these... b/c even posters are getting into arguments about whether bitcoin is the solution to all of this mess.. ... and in my view bitcoin is NOT going to solve these kinds of matters in the near-term - however, it is likely that bitcoin could contribute towards various solutions, since many of us on this thread (especially those who are long-term bull-ish on bitcoin) realize that bitcoin is likely to transform many aspects of societal interactions.

I seem to recall that this whole conversation about the role of government came from the statement that theft and taxes is the same... .. and NOW the conversation has devolved into a full blown discussion of the role of government and whether services would be provided voluntarily, in the event that there were NO government.

[freebit13]

Yeah, fuck those assholes who like, need to drive to work and feed their kids and shit. They don't deserve jobs if their job doesn't pay them enough to pay tolls.

The money saved on taxes, car license and registration, fuel tax etc. would 'probably' cover double the toll expenses...

Again, how do these people get to work at the moment... is it free? It costs a lot to own a car, the poor people you are talking about sound like they don't even have 2 dollars to rub together and can hardly be compared with people who own cars and have jobs.

Unskilled labor does not pay very well, and it would get much worse without a minimum wage. What you would be talking about are the homeless, but even people with jobs often struggle, and working for $4 an hour, tax free as it may be, will not help very much.

Some clarity on the merits of minimum wage, just one click away: http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-02-18/raising-the-minimum-wage-is-still-a-bad-idea

[octaft]

Yeah, fuck those assholes who like, need to drive to work and feed their kids and shit. They don't deserve jobs if their job doesn't pay them enough to pay tolls.

The money saved on taxes, car license and registration, fuel tax etc. would 'probably' cover double the toll expenses...

Again, how do these people get to work at the moment... is it free? It costs a lot to own a car, the poor people you are talking about sound like they don't even have 2 dollars to rub together and can hardly be compared with people who own cars and have jobs.

Unskilled labor does not pay very well, and it would get much worse without a minimum wage. What you would be talking about are the homeless, but even people with jobs often struggle, and working for $4 an hour, tax free as it may be, will not help very much.

Some clarity on the merits of minimum wage, just one click away: http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-02-18/raising-the-minimum-wage-is-still-a-bad-idea

I know the arguments, I disagree. You won't. Moving on.

[Richy_T]

The above would be perfect. I would love for all roads to be build by private organizations and them charging toll. If you don't want to or cannot pay you have no business using the road. Of course this is only one of the government solutions.

I would love to live in a government-less society. We will get there the long way around by slowly eroding the governments away until there is nothing left.

Who says roads are the best way anyway? Tremendous waste of resources.

[billyjoeallen]

The above would be perfect. I would love for all roads to be build by private organizations and them charging toll. If you don't want to or cannot pay you have no business using the road. Of course this is only one of the government solutions.

I would love to live in a government-less society. We will get there the long way around by slowly eroding the governments away until there is nothing left.

Who says roads are the best way anyway? Tremendous waste of resources.

Excellent point. There seems to be a mental block by the central planners. The whole point of a decentralized society is that there is no central plan. If we could predict exactly how a stateless society could run, then central planning could work, and we know it doesn't. These people would rather have the certainty of a shitty system than the uncertainty of freedom. Where we're going, we may not need roads.

[billyjoeallen]

If you claim the a monopoly government is necessary to prevent the predation of the disadvantaged by the powerful, then I ask, howz that workin out for you so far?

[threecats]

5000 wall is back on bfx

make that 1111