Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Elwar]

I definitely agree it will in time have an effect on the precious metals market..

I have never seen a gold coin in person, thinking of maybe getting one gold maple leaf (canadian), but the premium is crazy (like 8% with shipping).
Is it heavy and shiny, lol? If I get one, it would be just for the sake of curiosity.

I tried to buy a silver coin on Amazon via Purse. It had a 20% premium so I asked for a 20% discount. Nobody bit.

[cAPSLOCK]

-snip all the blahblah-

This

Thank you sir.  I added some little pictures to give it some flair. Ha.

The idea for this tome-let was prompted by the Elon tweet about "bigger faster, cheaper".  Whatever he said...

It hit me that not only am I learning deeper nuance of why this thing is important, and why there are aspects of it that we CANNOT sacrifice to things like "faster, cheaper, bigger", but there are currently, and always will be people who do not understand why the ingredients required to keep Bitcoin decentralized will ALWAYS be under attack.  Both because it's almost always the first thought for optimization when you do NOT understand how it works, as well as it's also the most powerful way to subvert the system once you DO.

So, we have to keep singing this song 'till the whole world knows it.

[Biodom]

from drudge...gov wants to crack open your wallets. "Privacy... up yours".
Noice /s

https://www.nextgov.com/emerging-tech/2021/05/irs-wants-tools-cracking-crypto-wallets/174246/

[decodx]

Stating the obvious:
"Why don’t we just scrap the whole mining idea and just let Elon sign the blocks? Sounds pretty green to me."
https://twitter.com/_benkaufman/status/1396935233396744192

[JayJuanGee]

TLDR; Bitcoin is for holding and measuring your wealth in (like @Capslock had eloquently explained). Therefore, fiat and, possibly, alts are for spending. Why I even included alts..because they oscillate and sometimes go up 100X in a few mo, so if you are nimble enough, you can play and get 'play money' as a result.

TLDR... stop being so god damned ridiculously dogmatic about what peeps should or should not do with their BTC.  Peeps can do whatever the fuck they want, especially if they have already met their personal goals and they are able to continue to meet, maintain or even exceed their personal goals in a variety of ways that are of their own choosing, including if they want to sell some portion (even all) of their BTC.

Of course, I already gave a pretty damned specific and even realistic hypothetical example (not necessarily based on any particular known person), of a person has a goal of achieving $1 million  by 2021, but then realizes that he actually would be better served with $2million by that same date, but then when he also realizes that his BTC has become worth $12 million.  Accordingly, he should not feel any inhibitions in shaving off some BTC because he has $10million excess of his own personal financial wealth accumulation goals.

Sure, maybe this particular peep could be well served by increasing his personal financial goals, or maybe he can consider that he should have started shaving off profits way before having had reached $12 million... whatever he decides to do, then he has choice and discretion in planning or replanning that or even concluding that he has achieved way in excess of his own personal financial wealth accumulation goals. 

Further, what happens if his wealth accumulation goal is $2 million, and then he just let's his $12million continue to accumulate value and he does not shave off any BTC when his BTC stash has already reached $12million, and then BTC does another 8x from $40k per coin to $320k per coin, then all of a sudden he has $96million and his personal financial accumulation goal has not come off of $2 million? 

Of course it is not a bad problem to have, and it is not even unrealistic that this kind of a "problem" could end up happening to some one because I already explained a pretty damned possible circumstances in reaching such a $12million accumulation status at today's prices.. and many of us realize that it is not unrealistic for BTC to go through another 8x price appreciation from here.

Surely, I can think of all kinds of circumstances that guys are still struggling to get to fuck you status, even if they have been in BTC accumulation for a decent amount of time, but there are surely circumstances in which guys could well end up accumulating way more wealth than they are able to spend and it makes a lot of sense for them to shave some off... and maybe their "problem" just keeps getting worse at a certain point, especially if they do not shave off, and not everyone wants to accumulate wealth beyond their goals.. maybe they can tolerate another 3x or 5x or even 10x to have a bit more cushion, but at some point, if they are 48x beyond the top of what they thought that they needed, they have to start to become way more creative (and possibly beyond their own competency) in trying to spend their money in ways that are suitable to their own personality traits and preferences.

[ edited out]

I definitely agree it will in time have an effect on the precious metals market but I don't think it's holding it back get but I'm just going off a gut feeling I've done literally zero research.

With a quick Google it looks like the market cap on gold and silver is 13 trillion combined, Bitcoin is almost a trillion right?

You are going to be grasping at straws if you merely take a snapshot of where these assets are at currently.

In 2015, bitcoin was struggling to stay above a $5 billion market cap.  In other words bitcoin has between 160x and 240x more value than it had in 2015 (depending on which location you are locking in).

You think that bitcoin is going to stagnate? You think that bitcoin cannot do another 20x?

Sure not everyone can appreciate the amount of value that bitcoin has gained, and they conclude that bitcoin is going to be topping out soon, when I believe that it has largely already beaten gold and silver and other various PMs... Sure it could take some time for some of the measurements to feel more comfortable, but bitcoin can already do way more than those PMs in terms of sovereignty over value so long as a person has connections on both ends, he can move value anywhere in the world, and of course, more and more peeps are willing to accept bitcoin and even if they are moving a small amount of value, such as a few million dollars in value, they may well even be able to do that without anyone even really noticing... try doing that with gold/silver pms, and those private planes even get searched sometimes.

Kinda really shows how much fucking stupid paper money floating around there is when it's all just faith in the government  

Surely hardly any of this is tangible for a lot of normies, and even in the bitcoin learning space some of us are still trying to figure this stuff out.. including getting exposed to information and knowledge that we thought that we would never have any interest.. but then holding bitcoin sometimes will cause exposure to a variety of macro economic concepts that help to establish at least part of the the bitcoin investment thesis.

Btw yeah we're still buds, I actually really like most people on here, R0ach and gembitz and those crpyptnaut fucks where's the exception.

I will try NOT to cry.. even though sometimes I even get mad, angry and frustrated at "good buds" in these here parts.. and I am sure that the feeling is mutual.. because I have been told so, several times.

[El duderino_]

 Les baisses brutales du prix du #Bitcoin sont fréquentes et cela n'a rien d'anormal... c'est au contraire très sain ! 

 L'appréciation du prix à long terme ne fait aucun doute !

Article publié ce matin dans
@le_Parisien

https://twitter.com/StackinSat_FR/status/1395748860748783621?s=20

https://twitter.com/StackinSat_FR/status/1394237871037554690?s=20

Suddenly I speak French

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[El duderino_]

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/bitcoin-death-of-the-us-dollar

[El duderino_]

Haven't really made my mind about it but for now I am planning to dump %15-20 of my stash for every $10k increment starting from $50k and make the final blow at $100k.

I think that you are: 1) valuing your wealth too much in dollars, 2) attempting to time the BTC price movement too much, which is a) failing to account for the possibility of BTC prices going above $100k and b) not going to be able to profit if BTC prices go above $100k.  Furthermore, if you establish a more sound plan, you will both be able to support the bitcoin infrastructure more and possibly even personally profit more, too. 

O.k.  I do not mean this as any kind of hostile message.  Instead, I intend to be a friendly collaborator to outline a possible better approach and way of thinking about cashing out during such uncertain BTC price dynamic times.

Accordingly, I suggest that you tweak your plan a little bit in order that you are not engaging in as much all or nothing kind of thinking and you strive to always keep some stash in bitcoin.  Of course, do whatever the fuck you like, it is your life... hahahhahahaha  This is not financial advice...hahahahahaha... even though it is.   

Anyhow, instead of calculating dumping 15% to 20% of your stash from the amount of your original stash amount, calculate 15% to 25% from your stash balance as it evolves.  This is not going to cause a whole lot of difference in the amount that you cash out, but it will allow you to meaningfully stay in bitcoin in a variety of circumstances and thus to sufficiently hedge yourself.   Of course, you can tweak the numbers that I have outlined.

In other words, if you sell between 15% to 25% (which  I am going to readjust to 20% for calculation purposes) from the readjusted balance of your stash, you will never run out of bitcoin. 

Also, you are using $10k price increments which has the problem of 1) round numbers and 2) the problem of an amount that is set in terms of dollars which causes a lowering of the percentage each time you execute, so instead of calculating exact dollar increments, maybe you should start out selling BTC at around $47.5k (just in case BTC prices never (or take a long time) end up breaking above $50k), and then use something like 20% increments.  I got this 20% based on your $10k/$50k which is more or less 20% (of course, you can make the percentage lower or higher after you play around with it).

So I am giving a ballpark in which your sell ladder would look something like this:

Sell Price    BTC balance    BTCSell Amt  Pfolio$Value soldValue   soldTotal $47,478.00   7.00000000      0.00000000   $332,346.00   $0.00           $0.00 $47,478.00   7.00000000      1.40000000   $332,346.00   $66,469.20   $66,469.20 $56,973.60   5.60000000      1.12000000   $319,052.16   $63,810.43   $130,279.63 $68,368.32   4.48000000      0.89600000   $306,290.07   $61,258.01   $191,537.65 $82,041.98   3.58400000      0.71680000   $294,038.47   $58,807.69   $250,345.34 $98,450.38   2.86720000      0.57344000   $282,276.93   $56,455.39   $306,800.73 $118,140.46   2.29376000      0.45875200   $270,985.85   $54,197.17   $360,997.90 $141,768.55   1.83500800      0.36700160   $260,146.42   $52,029.28   $413,027.18 $170,122.26   1.46800640      0.29360128   $249,740.56   $49,948.11   $462,975.29 $204,146.71   1.17440512      0.23488102   $239,750.94   $47,950.19   $510,925.48 $244,976.05   0.93952410      0.18790482   $230,160.90   $46,032.18   $556,957.66 $293,971.26   0.75161928      0.15032386   $220,954.47   $44,190.89   $601,148.56 $352,765.51   0.60129542      0.12025908   $212,116.29   $42,423.26   $643,571.81 $423,318.62   0.48103634      0.09620727   $203,631.64   $40,726.33   $684,298.14 $507,982.34   0.38482907      0.07696581   $195,486.37   $39,097.27   $723,395.42 $609,578.81   0.30786326      0.06157265   $187,666.92   $37,533.38   $760,928.80

As you can see from the chart, you would start out at some number, such as $47,478 and you would have a certain number of BTC that for this example I hypothesize to be 7BTC.   You would sell in 20% price increments 20% of the value of your then holdings.  In this hypothetical the dollar value of your BTC holdings goes down, but it does not go down to zero.  The BTC that you hold go down, too, but of course they are worth more at each upwards price interval.  You will see that over time, that you have an accumulated cashing out value that far exceeds your earlier HOLDing value, especially once the BTC price gets to $100k (assuming it does) but even moreso, if the BTC price were to get to 1/2 a $million... which surely might not happen, but surely it should not hurt too much to prepare for such possibility and even other possibilities that are far beyond our expectations (which we know sometimes happens in bitcoinlandia).

Of course, if you were to create a chart like this with the formulas already contained therein, then you can play around with the increments and the amounts in order to figure out more acceptable ways to achieve all of your goals (of course, provided that BTC's price cooperates).  In my thinking, it might be good to cash out an amount that also allows your BTC $ value to continue to go up no matter what, even if it is just a percentage or two of price appreciation.

Also I'll buy back every piece I dumped if the price goes $10k lower from where I sell the coins.

For example;

Sold %20 @ $50k. Now there are 2  possibilities.

 A) the price goes down for $10k to $40k and I buy back and increase the btc amount,
 B) It goes higher and reaches $60k. Then I'll domp et again another %16-17.

If A) happens in the first round  > back to hodling
If B) happens > again another 2 possibilities A) and B) but this time it's happening @ $60k.

Will probably play that game to maximize the profits till it reaches $100k. Not really decided on anything just thinking. I may completely ignore the "buy back" part too.

Your buy back part sounds reasonable; however, since you seem a little nervous about buying back, based on your last sentence, then maybe you should consider setting your buy back numbers to be quite extremely low, and if the BTC price never goes to such extremely low amounts, then you do not care, you just end up spending the fiat.  And, of course, if the price ends up going to your buy back numbers, then you are happy about that, too because you got a decent bargain in your buy back amount without even having to inject new fiat into your system.

Sorry for quoting, just love mindrust's plan in selling & buying back and how to do it etc ... though he had respect for JJG's way and even merited him LoL 

Just some history posts 

[El duderino_]

HODLsleep.

[UnDerDoG81]

I definitely agree it will in time have an effect on the precious metals market..

I have never seen a gold coin in person, thinking of maybe getting one gold maple leaf (canadian), but the premium is crazy (like 8% with shipping).
Is it heavy and shiny, lol? If I get one, it would be just for the sake of curiosity.

I tried to buy a silver coin on Amazon via Purse. It had a 20% premium so I asked for a 20% discount. Nobody bit.

A Story how I got into Bitcoin. I had some savings on my bank account and did not needed that money. I did not wanna let it sit there so the bank can make money out of it while I get nothing. Went to the bank and asked if I can buy gold with that money. They told me they do not sell physical gold but can sell me gold on paper. I said fuck it what I wanna do with gold on paper, I wanna hold it in my hand. A month later I read about Bitcoin on an search engine optimization forum and went all in. Best decision I ever made. Yes, Bitcoin is not physical as well. But I did not like the idea of just buying a paper from the bank since I never liked banks. I know might sound silly. Of course I went into Bitcoin to make a quick buck and here we are 8 years later lol.

[cAPSLOCK]

On printers.
My brother will be using them as well and he is deep down the bonsai rabbit hole, he wants to print bonsai pots for his little trees and he is worried that the print size is too small.

Any tips?

What size does he envision?  I would think I could make a fairly humongous pot for a bonsai with my average sized Prusa.  I do not know much about bonsais but the ones I have seen would fit in pots that fit the "25 x 21 x 21 cm" print area.

I must be doing the math wrong, but a round pot that was 20cm tall and 20cm across would easily hold ~ 5 liters of dirt with room to spare?

(3.14x10^2)x20 = 6280ml

Maybe I am off... but no matter it would be a average size flower pot in my opinion.

[thewaterloggers]

Price looks good at $38,470. Above the 200 Day at $40,395 should be plain sailing. Above the 0.618 at $41,580 would be the confirmation.
Fear and greed is registering 10, the lowest level since March 30th 2020. Same old story: Buy fear sell greed.

[AlcoHoDL]

On printers.
My brother will be using them as well and he is deep down the bonsai rabbit hole, he wants to print bonsai pots for his little trees and he is worried that the print size is too small.

Any tips?

What size does he envision?  I would think I could make a fairly humongous pot for a bonsai with my average sized Prusa.  I do not know much about bonsais but the ones I have seen would fit in pots that fit the "25 x 21 x 21 cm" print area.

I must be doing the math wrong, but a round pot that was 20cm tall and 20cm across would easily hold ~ 5 liters of dirt with room to spare?

(3.14x10^2)x20 = 6280ml

Maybe I am off... but no matter it would be a average size flower pot in my opinion.

I would think that any normal 3D printer should be able to do bonsai.

At least that's my idea of bonsais (being really small). Actually, I just looked it up and indeed there are some very big bonsais out there. I guess Arrie's brother means these...

[cAPSLOCK]

Another leg down is setting up right now. The bitcoin price won't be able to sustain itself above $35k for 10 consecutive days.

Every damn time, best reverse indicator ever. You should charge for this shit, bruh.

Observing $39,556.

Let this man dissapear they don’t give this man a chance to speak about bitcoin
He ruines all

Actually he may simply be looking to sell his battery wall with a few panels to run your mining gear cleanly.

He may have scared away the morons and soft hands.  Lets see if he offers a 'clean' power pack for a home miner.

Or fuck em as honey badger does not care.

You know...

That is something.  What if Elon decided to commoditize the Bitcoin Miner.  Make a miner rig that was entirely solar powered.

Or somehow integrated mining into his house systems... i do not even know if this makes sense.  But instead of selling excess energy back to the grid just use it to mine Bitcoin?  Or something... hmm.  I wonder if he has gotten to this train of thought yet.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Nobel Prize-winning economist calls Bitcoin a ‘cult’

"There always seems to be a new crop of believers. Maybe just think of it as a cult that can survive indefinitely," Krugman said.

https://www.zmescience.com/science/news-science/nobel-prize-winning-economist-calls-bitcoin-a-cult/

... for a muppet sometimes he gets close to the mark, sounds a lot like the fiat-dollar central banking cult tbh  

... what could be closer to a "cult" than the "Full Faith and Credit" of institutions that create money out of thin air at inconceivable rates? Always with a new crop of believers getting indoctrinated in the schools ...

... at least by wheeling out this relic for some wheezing FUD shows that the central banking fiat cult is worried and taking bitcoin seriously

[lightfoot]

I definitely agree it will in time have an effect on the precious metals market..

I have never seen a gold coin in person, thinking of maybe getting one gold maple leaf (canadian), but the premium is crazy (like 8% with shipping).
Is it heavy and shiny, lol? If I get one, it would be just for the sake of curiosity.

Honest: If you want one PM me and we can trade one for whatever bitcoin is plus shipping. They're kinda cute to be honest and feel neat when you put them against your cheek (it's the way to check if a watch is real gold: Brass won't warm up quickly but gold will) but as a store of value they suck.

[cAPSLOCK]

I definitely agree it will in time have an effect on the precious metals market..

I have never seen a gold coin in person, thinking of maybe getting one gold maple leaf (canadian), but the premium is crazy (like 8% with shipping).
Is it heavy and shiny, lol? If I get one, it would be just for the sake of curiosity.

There is something magical about them.  Might be programmed into us somehow... they are beautiful and feel good in the hand.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Another leg down is setting up right now. The bitcoin price won't be able to sustain itself above $35k for 10 consecutive days.

Every damn time, best reverse indicator ever. You should charge for this shit, bruh.

Observing $39,556.

... fuck Musk, who exactly did he speak with? All the NA miners? Can any of them verify these conversations?

... he's just full of shit and blow most of the time. In fact why doesn't he run for President? fucktard.

... he's gonna get spat out the back of Bitcoin faster than Mike Hearn, Roger Verr, Jihan Wu and anyone else who tries to coordinate centralised decision making regards mining, I guarantee it.

[sirazimuth]

Oh so Elon spoke with "North American miners"... well, he certainly didn't speak with me so right there I already know he's full of shit.

Well.... at least he didn't tweet a levitating bitcoin Buda Ball pic, so there is that....