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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26371518 times)
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December 29, 2021, 10:15:15 AM


Bitcoin basically because all other includes shitcoin in the market Wink

Guys, let's all take a moment of reflection for Bill Gates. He's had a really rough year...

Yeah, inflation is gonna eat his billions. Should've bought bitcoins when he had a chance.
Yes life for him is very hard and he speaks on that situation also like it would take us some more years to re-establish our businesses and on the contrary part he has gained enough this year also  Grin

But hyperinflation seems to be very close that it could take billion dollars in the rabbit hole easily and what common people are waiting for don't know.

There could be surprise elements to us also like he might come forward in public and say actually bitcoin was good investment for all of us and then i also invested some billions into it few years back like Tim Cook and then common people would be fool not to invest in it.
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December 29, 2021, 11:01:28 AM


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December 29, 2021, 11:07:03 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Yeah it's a good point.
I don't think any of that mask shit makes any difference when you are in a cinema for hours anyway.

We’re 2 years in now & it still spreads like wild fire. It’s clear masks do very little by now.
People will be on their 4th jabs soon but we still have restrictions. I’ve been done with this bull shit for a long time now.

Some face-diaper not gona do anything for something coming out of  level 4 biohazard lab.
 

Fun fact: similar posts by pro-vaccine, pro-mask peeps cause huge butthurt and ooh don't hurt my feelings please post in Bawb's thread...  Grin  All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others.  Grin
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Haha this is hilarious! Should've been vodka in a plastic cup  Grin

P.S. And what in the world is appletini?  Grin
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December 29, 2021, 12:16:08 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

..........
 please post in Bawb's thread...  

Well no that is a Apartheid thread.


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December 29, 2021, 12:22:55 PM


We’re 2 years in now & it still spreads like wild fire. It’s clear masks do very little by now.
People will be on their 4th jabs soon but we still have restrictions. I’ve been done with this bull shit for a long time now.

Do I have to roll out a post about babies not wearing diapers and shitting all over a nursery? Because I could....

Let's keep the CoVID shit-posts in other threads and off the WO please.

(edit: Bob's thread is apparently for hat-only, I am sure there are other threads on this forum where the merits can be debated properly)
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December 29, 2021, 12:52:33 PM
Last edit: December 29, 2021, 01:08:22 PM by dragonvslinux
Merited by JayJuanGee (3), fillippone (3), vapourminer (1)

[edited out]

 Otherwise, $100K-150K for no blow-off top, simply reaching the logarithmic growth upper band and reversing.

I don't really have any major problem with this kind of scenario ending up playing out because it is still very profitable for me, personally.

For most hodlers I imagine. Better than losing 50%+ of fiat value at least  Wink

One of my problems with the considering of such scenario to be reasonable remains that it just does not seem to reflect bitcoin's history very well, and it does not even seem to fit very well into a kind of "smoothing of tops" kind of depiction of bitcoin as a maturing asset class... and maybe that ends up being part of the rub (the crux of it) that I have with these kinds of smoothing top depictions of bitcoin in that there seems to be some kind of built presumption that bitcoin is sufficiently maturing as an asset class in order to really meaningfully be considered in that kind of a way.. which I really have some difficulties accepting that as a very likely scenario

Personally I find it fits perfectly into the smoothing of tops adoption/maturation theory, based on Bitcoin's price history. That of declining highs based on % gain, increased volume, declining volatility, increased adoption, etc. I just stick to the current growth curve, no need to over-complicate things imo with any theoretical supply shock models or otherwise.

Therefore for Q1 high would be around $150K, Q2 $175K or Q3 $200K. I'm never a fan of the "this year will be different theory", when for the past 10 years Bitcoin has formed and remained within a pretty clear-cut logarithmic adoption curve, until there's any evidence to suggest breaking a decade long trend. Depending on how you look at it, from peak to peak the growth declined considerably from ~35,000% to around 1,500%, so the % rise declined enoromously by 95%. So for example another decline of even just 50% would only be a rise of around 750%, which would put a top around the $175K mark.

For sure we could see a wick above or below this curve, like in March 2020 when price went 50% below the lower band, but it would take a black-swan event for that to happen imo, as opposed to the usual up-trend that occurs. So I do see the argument and possibility for reaching some $250K level or higher, but it wouldn't be typical of Bitcoin's price movements based on it's entire history.



Otherwise the target of $1 million sometime after Q3 2026 I find pretty realistic, as well the completion of adoption by 2030 at a $5 million BTC (where the upper and lower bands of the adoption curve cross over, and therefore the model becomes invalidated by default). With a $100 trillion market cap, it'd also be hard to argue that a $5 million Bitcoin price wouldn't make most fiat currencies redundant by then. 9 years from now also seems like a realistic time-frame personally, given how far Bitcoin has come in the past 10 years. This growth is also very similar to S2F, just with a little less pseudo-science Tongue



(even though I understand and appreciate that any kind of scenario could end up playing out, even a kind of $100k to $150k whimpy top scenario as does seem to be amongst your favorites, even if you are reluctant to admit it... hahahahahahaha     Tongue  Tongue Tongue Tongue).

It's not that it's my favourite scenario, but simply the most likely now there has been a clear enough trend of lows and highs established over 3 peaks and 3 lows. It's true I wouldn't be a fan of Bitcoin abandoning an adoption curve and forming a speculative marco-bubble (that so far hasn't happened fortunately), which only pops and leads to eventually returning to the adoption curve, taking maybe a decade or so to consolidate, even if entirely possible. As leaving this adoption curve to the upside would certainly open the doors to leaving it to the downside too.... meaning 10 years of adoption down the drain.

I realise the adoption curve might seem "whimpy" to you, because ultimately is typified by continuing to produce declining % gains, but personally I think a 750% rise from peak to peak is more than satisfactory, as well as a 20x within around 5 years, or even 100x within 10 years. I also think sustainable adoption will win the race faster than a speculative bubble that would likely take many years to recover from, not just the usual mini-boom and mini-bust that are nothing more than Bitcoin's bull markets and bear markets on smaller scales. The Tortoise and the Hare comes to mind here, that of slow and steady wins the race.
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December 29, 2021, 01:01:27 PM


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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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December 29, 2021, 01:06:41 PM

Example: You are married, have 200K income and 200K long term cap gains.
Your "regular" combined income is taxed at 32%, but your longterm cap gains are taxed at 15%.
See the table in here:
https://erwealth.com/podcastblog/will-capital-gains-push-me-into-a-higher-tax-bracket
Quote
Capital gains will not cause your ordinary income to be taxed at a higher rate..
So, again, long-term capital gains are taxed at different rates and separately from your ordinary income.

Unless i completely misunderstand their "slang" it appears that you could be taxed differently for reg income and for cap gains.


Correct. So your 80k 0% CG tax applies to 80k if you don't work a day all year, but for every day you work that 0% is replaced by the income tax rate. So the best option is to be a complete louse, live off your LTCG and pay zero taxes on the first 80k. Which by the way is equal to a 100k "salary" because of all the taxes that cum out.

After that it's taxed at 15% up to a couple of hundred G (half million or so). That may seem a lot, but remember there is no Social Security "tax" nor is there any Medicare or employment taxes. So it's lower than you think. This is why it's good to be rich.

However you can't contribute to an IRA or 401k with CG money, you need to have income. Which leads to my real fun question:

If on Jan 1 you redirect 100% of your salary to a 401k, then quit once you hit $19500 (the 401k limits), do you still get the whole 80k CG at 0% rate because the 401k was a "top line" (before AGI) deduction or is it based on total income?

Is health insurance paid for by CG profits deductible? Since Health insurance is another top line deduction can you work an extra few weeks for that money and still get the 80k 0% CG tax rate?

Inquiring minds want to know. :-)

i just figure im fucked no matter what. so meh.
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December 29, 2021, 01:16:49 PM

i just figure im fucked no matter what. so meh.

Oh of course: No one gets out of this game alive :-) But as a thought experiment I'm finding it to be fun to figure out how you can have maximum in-your-pocket funds while paying a minimum in taxes legally and completely by all the rules.

Maybe this is how rich people think....
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December 29, 2021, 01:22:29 PM

Come on corn

Keep up the x-mass spirit
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December 29, 2021, 01:45:17 PM

Come on corn

Keep up the x-mass spirit



And watch this gif
https://c.tenor.com/ojhtqKXuthMAAAAC/santa-saylor.gif
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December 29, 2021, 01:52:03 PM
Merited by BobLawblaw (2)

..........
 please post in Bawb's thread...  

Well no that is a Apartheid thread.




I am pretty sure, you are as welcome as other men without hats (as long as you master the safety dance) as Bob stated some time ago:



<snip>

 If a non-hatter contributes something substantive and interesting to the thread, brave enough to post here, and survive my scrutiny, I'll give them a pass.

 Passive WO-posters get an implied, automagic free pass, as "we are familiar with them".

<snip>

So you're probably not gonna fail on the non-hatter but on the substantive part.
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December 29, 2021, 02:01:22 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1), JayJuanGee (1), sirazimuth (1)

"Don't Look Up" - look it up on Netflix, best movie since Idiocracy IMO. Made well enough so that anyone can think "nah, I'm not that stupid, this is about all those other people". Bitcoin gets honorable mention too.

https://www.netflix.com/title/81252357
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December 29, 2021, 02:21:22 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Luckily, I'm not addicted to crypto at all.

I might have a mild dependence on bitcoin, though...

Bro, what is life without bitcoin….

Wait... there IS LIFE without Bitcoin? Or life AFTER Bitcoin like in mindrust's case?  Grin

Life is definitely worse without bitcoin.

But is it 25% worse without 25% bitcoin?  Grin
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December 29, 2021, 02:31:07 PM

Quote

they’re slowly learning that much of this is unnecessary because Bitcoin was designed in such a way that wallets can be frozen, and funds can be moved by court order. In other words, code is not law, law is law.

To imagine how this might work in the future, let’s imagine that Ulbricht’s Silk Road was still active today. If authorities could prove that wallets x, y, and z belonged to Silk Road, say by using blockchain analytics tools combined with traditional investigation techniques, they could secure court orders from judges that issue the orders to miners/nodes and have them simply freeze the funds. Later, a court could order the miners/nodes to move the funds from the Silk Road wallets to the wallets of the receiving agency.


Hahahaha, good luck with that. Secure court orders to miners in Iceland, or inner Mongolia. Sure.

Quote
Only if it was that simple.

Yes code is not the law but “open source” code is the law.

IOW, indeed.


Quote

Maybe part of the comedy is the article's use of the expression:  "simply freeze the funds" which hardly any government or court is going to be that dumb to even try it, are they?  It would be the kind of thing that would inspire scoff law and show the government's impotence in that direction.. so many of us would likely speculate that no government nor court would even want to play that kind of an "order the freeze" card.

Luckily, I'm not addicted to crypto at all.

I might have a mild dependence on bitcoin, though...

Good point.

Until I saw your post, I was kind of wondering what that "crypto" thingie-ma-jiggie was and if it were to be somehow related to bitcoin.

Luckily, I'm not addicted to crypto at all.

I might have a mild dependence on bitcoin, though...

Bro, what is life without bitcoin….

Wait... there IS LIFE without Bitcoin? Or life AFTER Bitcoin like in mindrust's case?  Grin

Life is definitely worse without bitcoin.

It seems that a lot of us would be a pretty pathetic kind of a place without bitcoin.. Maybe we would end up turning into various kinds of political activists? or detached?  or in the woods like Ted Kaczynski?  I suppose that there could be ways to still feel that there is something that can be done about any investment that we make to be in a kind of peril.  Maybe we would hedge with real estate or gold, but surely the gold bugs are not doing good these days.  Would gold do better if bitcoin did not exist? Perhaps?

Another reason to feel lucky that we are not in a position in which we would have to choose some of those various inferior investments.

[edited out]

I can buy $50 a day pretty easy peasy by simply selling the alt coin I simply do not like or  mention. I mine a lot of it I am over invested in gpus. It is why I have been buying $50 a day since we dropped i from the 60k level I think it was on Nov 23.

I sold 17-18k at 61-67k and then went about buying it back using the unnamed shit coin sales.

Of course, we have discussed the idea of make up contributions that exist for retirement plans in the USA for anyone who is 50 years or older, so in the USA, retirement plans may well only allow for the contribution of around $20k per year, but if you are 50 years old or older, then you can add an additional $6,500 to your amount.

So maybe you are considering something similar, philip?  A kind of making up of the stacking of sats.

For sure there could be ways to make $50 per day or $350 per week to be sustainable, yet it is surely a bit more than most normies would be willing to contribute.. but surely, if you are able to sustain an extra $350 per week, then maybe you would want to just keep it as a current practice until you are either at fuck you status or getting close to fuck you status (whatever you determine that fuck you status to be, whether it is $2 million, $3.75 million as you had mentioned before, or some other amount that you believe might be suitable to your specifics).  

Of course, one of the reasons that some of us might seem to get either greedy or anxious in our own stacking of sats is because frequently there can be feelings of security to either arrive to fuck you status early or to end up exceeding it; however, I am also an advocate of NOT letting the perfect be the enemy of the good because if you are able to manage and evaluate your BTC holdings in a way that accounts for volatility, then you should end up in a position that you had ended up pulling the fuck you lever too early.

I know that my charts might not always be sufficiently flexible, but let's say that in your case you had more or less started $350 extra invested in BTC per week and we can presume a starting point of around $50k and an average BTC price appreciation of about 12% per year, so we can see from the below chart that you would end up at around 1.2 BTC extra after four years of sticking with such an ongoing BTC accumulation plan, and nearly 2 BTC if you were able to continue for 8 years.  Of course, I understand that you do not have 8 years, but you just want to put yourself in a better position in a relatively soon time of maybe even less than 5 years, if that were possible.  Of course, I recognize and appreciate that I am projecting out some pretty whimpy BTC appreciation values, but in any case there is going to be some difficulties in having some kind of fair estimation that ends up being accurate, even though we can get some ballpark ideas, and also we can even create our own charts and tweak the assumptions contained therein.


Start $                StartDate                 % gain /time          Time                         Price/BTC                #BTC
$0                        11/23/21                     6.00%                    182.6                   $50,000.00               0.00000000

DCA-$350/Wk                                                                            
   

Date                           $Value                        DCA-Add                    TotInvstd                Profits                 Price/BTC             #BTC
   5/24/22                    $9,646                           $9,646                       $9,100                   6.00%               $53,000                 0.18200000
   11/23/22                    $19,871                           $9,646                       $18,200            9.18%               $56,180                 0.35369811
   5/24/23                    $30,709                           $9,646                       $27,300            12.49%               $59,551                 0.51567747
   11/23/23                    $42,198                           $9,646                       $36,400            15.93%               $63,124                 0.66848817
   5/24/24                    $54,375                           $9,646                       $45,500            19.51%               $66,911                 0.81264922
   11/22/24                    $67,284                           $9,646                       $54,600            23.23%               $70,926                 0.94865021
   5/24/25                    $80,967                           $9,646                       $63,700            27.11%               $75,182                 1.07695303
   11/22/25                    $95,471                           $9,646                       $72,800            31.14%               $79,692                 1.19799342
   5/24/26                    $110,845                           $9,646                       $81,900            35.34%               $84,474                 1.31218247
   11/23/26                    $127,142                           $9,646                       $91,000            39.72%               $89,542                 1.41990799
   
5/24/27                    $144,416                           $9,646                       $100,100            44.27%               $94,915                 1.52153584


   11/23/27                    $162,727                           $9,646                       $109,200            49.02%               $100,610                 1.61741117
   5/23/28                    $182,137                           $9,646                       $118,300            53.96%               $106,646                 1.70785960
   11/22/28                    $202,711                           $9,646                       $127,400            59.11%               $113,045                 1.79318830
   5/24/29                    $224,520                           $9,646                       $136,500            64.48%               $119,828                 1.87368707
   11/22/29                    $247,637                           $9,646                       $145,600            70.08%               $127,018                 1.94962932


yeah if I sell my share of  the business in 27

that extra 1.52 btc
along with the coin I earn and hodl
and the coin I get from selling the business
and the GOV pensions
and the wifes 401k

would mean f you status at the 'young' age of 70  Grin
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December 29, 2021, 02:42:14 PM
Merited by LoyceV (4), tertius993 (2), vapourminer (1), philipma1957 (1), JayJuanGee (1), suchmoon (1)

So there is a ton of hand wringing out there on the various talk holes.

We were all wrong about out predictions!!!   OMG!



All of this angst is driven by the fact that We are talking about predictions tied to an arbitrary date.  This always irritates me a little.  The human tendency to group things into calendar years.

I DO think that Bitcoin might be following one sort of prediction that I have frequently cited (not my fav, but that is entirely driven bny what is in my bags).  The idea of diminishing returns over time...  dragonvslinux  mentions it just a few posts up.  The idea that as the asset matures the returns will diminish.  Also DavetheWave's position.  And that theory will have won him a substantial bet with PlanB in a few days.

I personally STILL think we have at least a minor "S Curve" event in our future.  There just has to be a moment when the masses begin to realize that Bitcoin is not going away and people start piling in.  It's like the see-saw tipping point.  a 'gradually, then suddenly' event.

And if I have EVER suggested this would happen before the end of a calendar year I want to be BAT SLAPPED.

I even think the time will eventually come where the "Bitcoin 4 year cycle" falls away.  I have wondered if we would see it this cycle, begin to change.  And I think the jury i s still out on that one.  And there are several ways that could begin to happen... including a big double (or triple?)  set of peaks during THIS cycle, or perhaps a bull run INTO the next halving.

I just think tying things to year end is silly.  Well, except for the fact that people DO THAT which makes it a self fulfilling prophecy.  As well as various fiscal year motivators, like selling or buying before the end of a tax year.  

Anyway.  I remain bullish.  And I think there is a significant chance we have not seen the end of Bitcoin's rise.  After all it does not care one whit what year it is.  It only cares that the next block is a ridiculously small random number.
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