@jjg..at least $20-200k band is realistic in comparison with all your non-predictions.
I will take that as a somewhat compliment, even if you did not mean it as such.
But.. here are some specifics that I already mentioned before, so don't really need to repeat, but you are 'asking' for it.
I was not really asking for it, but sure.. o.k... go ahead if you must
(not that I can really stop you.)1. S2f is dead like a door knob.
Oh gawd.
![Roll Eyes](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/rolleyes.gif)
Sounds more like a wish than an actual statement that has facts/logic behind it.
2. Cycles are mostly dead, but not completely yet.
Mostly dead?
I presume that you are referring to the four-year fractal.
3. 200Wk average low is real, unless it is violated, hence the lowest value of $20K (for now).
I agree that the 200-week moving average is a good bottom indicator, but it should not be met unless we were in a bear market or maybe a short-term liquidity event like March 2020.. sure the 200-week moving average is approaching $19k, and yeah within a month or so, it will likely be around $20k-ish..
Ok. Admittedly, we had a run up from $10k to $65k between September 2020 and April 2021, and then we had a 56% correction down to $28,600 in May/June/July.. and subsequent to that another run up to $69k that ended up peaking on November 9.. so slightly higher than the earlier $65k.. and then a so far 39% correction down to $41,967 on December 3, so yeah, we have not yet gotten out of that 39% correction - even though we are currently about 12% above that December 3 correction low point.
I think that it is too soon to be presuming that we are going into a bear market, but hey, you do you. You had already suggested that we would be going sub $20k during our earlier May/June/July correction, so maybe this time you are going to be correct? I doubt it, but hey you can hope, right you beartwat low-coiner whiner.
#nohomo 4. At 200K miners would be excessively profitable, which historically indicated the top, hence the max value until the new gen of miners is out.
That's a fair point, but I don't think that miner profitability, even excessiveness levels of profits leads bitcoin price... but surely the miners are happy with Bitcoin's price, even currently, and surely we continue to have a lot of new entrants into BTC mining which have decent chances of continuing to push up hash rate and thus difficulty levels... two weeks at a time of course (what geniusness, no?)
5. We can stay at ~42-45K for a year instead of popping up and down.
We could, but seems like a very long shot. I would not be betting on such nonsense, especially since bitcoin no doesn't work like that.. At least the last time I checked.
6. We are in the new cycle, which is likely to be very long and quite possibly a "super cycle" (driven mostly by adoption, not halvings): 2021-2025(6).
Yes good luck with spinning your own wishful thinking SOMA
(tm-thanks d_eddie) BTC price dynamic models.
You might get lucky with your spinnening attempts, but probably not.
7. The prior cycle (which you think is still ongoing) actually terminated in April of 2021 (Nov was just a 'secondary' peak caused by reaction to abrupt "chinese' plunge).
Fair enough if you believe that the cycle ended in November, but that extra little nonsense about ending in April is really truly out of your ass, including your chinese plunge explanatory assertion. I am not going to buy that for even 30 seconds.
But yeah.. have fun with your short, or your waiting for lower prices, or your historical short-sighted practice of failing and refusing to prepare for UP. Let's see how the next 1-9 months play out.. ... I think that we are going to see other than sideways or downity in the next 1-9 months, and I am not even sure if you disagree - even though you are saying otherwise at the moment.. but like usual, you are likely going to have to be changing your tune in the wee near future.. just like you had to do sometime soon after $10k in September 2020 and just like you had to do sometime soon after $30k in August 2021... but one thing is fairly certain that if you keep spouting out your ongoing nonsense DOWNity scenarios, sooner or later you are going to be correct, and sooner or later, you are going to be able to tell all of us that "I told you so."
![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif)
For sure, we should know not to be taking uie poo-ie too seriously with your ongoing nabobs of nagging negativism and glass-half-full nonsense... and so hopefully not to many peeps get reckt by actually believing that you are actually saying something meaningful and important that they should follow.