@jjg...at least cite right..and stop making up stuff.
"price prediction models are broken" != "bitcoin is broken"
I don't know what you are talking about here.
I said whatever I was going to say, and I stand by whatever points I made in the context that I made them, if I actually made any points.
...it simply means that there ain't a formula that can predict the price at certain time in the future,
You seem to be saying what I have been saying, and acting as if you are contradicting me. In other words, I doubt that I have ever proclaimed any BTC price prediction models put bitcoin on any kind of schedule, however, I have frequently asserted that the best currently valid BTC price prediction models in existence are a combination of stock to flow, 4-year fractal and exponential s-curve adoption based on network effects and Metcalfe principles... So what I am saying that any attempt to place probabilities on BTC price ranges into the future or talk about BTC price dynamics should be attempting to account for these models and concepts.
Probably
my most recent assignments of probabilities (that was last updated on December 16 - and likely has not changed too much since then) for the top of this cycle in terms of how far the BTC price might go and when it might end are also my attempts to include those concepts in my assessment where the BTC price might be going in the next 1-9 months, and surely I also attempt to account for outlier possibilities (of about 4.5%) that cause the peak for this cycle to go beyond 9 months, which are also contained in there.
but, personally, I think that we would be in a $30K-$65K situation for the next 12 mo.
Does not seem too likely. In other words, I will believe it when I see it. Probably there is less than a 30% chance for your scenario to play out, in the event that you were thinking about some kind of a bet that you might like to make.
I do largely agree with you that we are not likely to go below $30k ever again, so maybe the odds of going below $30k might be below 8%-ish.
How? we can stay flat at 42-50K or continue down until 30-31K, then rebound back to 60-62K and continue oscillating.
Bitcoin does not tend to do flat, especially if it has not yet had a parabolic top yet for this cycle, and it seems quite unlikely that our 6.5x price appreciation from September 2020 to April 2021 constituted our blow off top, especially since we had already had two corrections from that of 56% and 39% (and of course, the second correction had our lovey dovey BTC price surpassing the prior ATH of $64,895 and going up to $69k), so I really doubt that we are in a very good posture to stay within your stated range for the next 12 months, and I would assign somewhere around less than 30% odds to that kind of a scenario actually playing out. Is there a bet in there, or not?
$20K-200K range covers pretty much ALL possibilities, but the tighter range above (30-65K) also looks right to me.
I have not really fleshed out various down scenarios in my December 16 outline of my ideas about where we might go because I consider that we are quite likely still in a bull market.
Although you can see in my two charts that my scenarios below $62k do add up to around 45%, so maybe we are in higher agreement than I would like to admit, though I do consider that if we were to get above $62k, then it is pretty likely that we would just pass up to $92k.. .It is not easy to place odds on these kinds of matters, I admit.
Furthermore, you will see that 50% of my predictions are $92k and below and the other 50% above $92k, but within the supra $220k categories, I had placed about 29% towards the top of this cycle to include numbers higher than $220k.. so yeah for sure, I do not consider your range of $20k to $200k to contain all of the scenarios, even though it is vaguely outlined in terms of what timeline you might be talking about.
By the way, so far, I don't really see any need to tweak
my December 16 numbers because I cannot appreciate anything very meaningful to have happened in bitcoin since December 16; however, if I were to currently tweak my numbers, then i would likely flesh out my thoughts on what I perceive as our current range of $42k to $62k, which likely has become more solidified in my thinking since December 16th.
Another intention that I have regarding my own thread.. is to attempt to preserve my earlier predictions after I update those charts.... so I am thinking that at the time that I update the numbers containing those current December 16 predictions, I would create another post that preserves what my predictions had been on December 16, but the new predictions would end up going into my reserved 4 / opening post 4.
For sure, I will concede that none of my attempts to assign probabilities to me views on BTC price moves are even close to scientific, but I am attempting to capture where I am at, to develop that along the way and then to adjust to show where I am going. At some point, if I start to believe that either a bear market or a flat trajectory becomes more likely then I will attempt to flesh out my assignment of probabilities to those categories.. at this point, I don't really have any problem keeping my down scenarios as somewhat vague.. which from the December 16 chart, it looks like I had then assigned down below $45k to be about 33.5% odds.. so surely the assignment of odds will partly depend upon how the question is asked/framed, and there can be a variety of ways of asking/framing questions depending on if any facts might have changed along the way, so for example if we were to break below $45k or $42k, then maybe I would consider some need to flesh out some of my down scenarios a bit more, but until then, I do still consider UP to be quite a bit more likely, even if sideways is not completely ignored, even in the scenarios that I outlined on December 16, which are not too far different from my current thinking (two weeks later).
One thing is 99% sure-there will be NO blow off tops (above 200K) in the next 1-9mo.
Wanna bet something?
Ok... this does seem like a decent area in which we differ in our assignment of probabilities, I seem to place quite a bit higher than 1% odds on the price going above $200k in the next 9 months (let's say the end of the 3rd quarter). So yeah, we might have room for a bet. We would have to work something out or figure out some parameters... I do like that you are so adamant about the odds being less than 1%, and there should be ways that I would be able to really blow you out of the water with those kinds of bullshit and unlikely to be even realistic assertions... I am still not really sure how we could frame this that each of us would feel comfortable accepting and showing how full of shit you likely are.
How about those 0.31 btc of yours?
Don't be such a dweeb. Did I already assert that I have more than 0.63 BTC, so why would I want to put nearly half of it into a bet. Are you fucking crazy? There is no need to have high stakes in order to make our points... and I have not really thought too deeply about an actual number that might be sufficiently appropriate to make the point, without being disingenuous. I believe that you threw out such a high number of 0.31 BTC because you are not really wanting to bet, but proclaiming that you want to bet... you dweebtwat.
I am glad that you are thinking about the possibility of a bet, though.. it does make this more interesting of a proposition, and maybe I could even start to treat you more seriously in terms of standing behind your assignment of probabilities if we could actually come some kind of agreement how to frame the bet and the quantity of BTC to bet... probably better to think in terms of satoshis regarding this.. just a matter of how many satoshis would be sufficiently enough to make the point and to treat the matter somewhat seriously...
We would likely need some mutually agreeable escrow.. so another thing that I am thinking is where the fuck is
@Dabs when you need him? He has not logged on for a few weeks, since December 7. hahahaha.. sure there might be another forum member who we might be able to agree upon to serve as escrow who is willing to perform such services for low or no fees.. in the event that we would be able to figure out the more substantive terms of such a bet.. and if we are really at a great enough difference to justify a bet.
Anyhow, even though we do have your assertion of less than 1% odds that BTC prices would go over $200k by the end of the third quarter of 2022, and my odds are not really that much greater.. maybe there would be a way that I am saying greater than 20% odds.. but I am not really sure of what odds I am placing when framed exactly like that, but there does seem to be a pretty decently sized gap that we should be able to exploit if we can frame it right... By the way, I am not sure about my exact numbers because on December 16, I had both asserted the top going over $220k would be as high as 29%, but I also asserted that there were 4.5% odds that such peak would happen after the 3rd quarter of 2022.. so I am not even sure about how to assign my own odds.. would I multiple 95.5% * 29%, so that would get me something like 27.6% odds that the peak would happen .. but I had used $220k in my framing and you are using $200k.. I am still not sure how to frame this, because it is not like I am giving really high odds to such a supra $200k thing happening by the end of the 3rd quarter 2022 anyhow, even though my odds seem to be way higher than 1%.
Another possible angle is that you are giving pretty high odds to BTC prices staying within a range of $30k to $65k for the next 12 months, so we do not really disagree too much about the bottom of the range, but there might be some kind of way to work out some kind of bet in terms of the top of the range, especially since I seem to be assigning higher than 50% to supra $62k - and sure $62k and $65k is not really that much different, but I do consider $65k to be within the newly revised noman's land which from my perspective starts around $62k... so for me, getting above $62k there should not be too much of any resistance all the way up to $92k.. but anyhow, in order to keep me asserting greater than 50% odds that we break above $62k, I may likely be able to say something close to the same if we were to want to use $65k as our price break out reference point... so surely we are more likely to have action if we establish a bet that involves $62k or $65k rather than $200k or even $220k.. but there could be a way of why not both? Are we getting anywhere, or not? Do we need creativity help? This might be where crowd sourcing could end up coming in handy.. if guys could figure out something that is sufficiently controversial between us and we can work out the terms.. because I do believe that you are being a bit too rigid in your outlining of what you believe is going to happen in terms of bitcoin performance in the coming 9 to 12 months, which does provide for potential bet opportunities.
Poll
