Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[gallianooo]

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[DaRude]

.....
....even a stopped clock can be correct from time to time - a couple times a day to be more precise.

Indeed....
However, there is no way for one to determine when it is correct, unless one has a working clock next to it, in which case, surely the stopped clock is not only useless, but also irrelevant....Perhaps?

I recall an old saying that went something like: You never take two clocks with you when you travel, you either take one or three.

[OutOfMemory]

Bitcoin obituary in 3... 2... 1...
Happy dip-hunting, brothers 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@therationalroot
The HODL Model: #Bitcoin 's illiquid supply is outpacing supply issuance.
As illiquid supply rises, so do the market impacts of bitcoin's digital scarcity.

Short 🧵👇

https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1500875223201042439?s=21


@therationalroot
The "HODL model hypothesis" is that bitcoin has crossed a historic inflection point where the asset's illiquid supply is outpacing the rate of new supply issuance. Future halvings with lower supply issuance will only exacerbate this divergence.

https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1500875232986353666?s=21


@therationalroot
Illiquid supply as a percentage of circulating supply will grow in a parabolic fashion as #Bitcoin 's digital scarcity drives investor behavior towards store of value as the dominant use case. As a result, illiquid supply will approach 80% of circulating supply by 2036.

https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1500875238220828672?s=21


@therationalroot
Liquid and highly-liquid supply will tighten as illiquid supply grows, leaving less bitcoin available on the market to acquire or trade.
New waves of demand that enter the market to acquire this declining available supply will then lead to exponential price increases.
https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1500875240494166017?s=21



@therationalroot
The HODL model predicts a conservative estimate of #Bitcoin 's available supply following the growth curve we saw above. Since illiquid supply share nears a low at the inflection point, a logical consequence would be for bitcoin's price to follow an inverse S-curve.
https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1500875242369011715?s=21


@therationalroot
The 'HODL Price Model' leverages the HODL Model's inflection & end point to create an an asymmetric s-curve following the projections of illiquid supply.

https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1500875247024701441?s=21


@therationalroot
Unlike a log-curve with a continuous decreasing slope, the HODL price model has an increasing slope from the inflection point onwards.
https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1500875249662849025?s=21


@therationalroot
With tighter liquid and highly-liquid supply, we see high increases in price at the beginning of bitcoin’s lifetime and then moderate price increases near the third halving’s inflection point. As available supply tightens again, we should expect higher price increases to follow.
https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1500875251399331845?s=21







Interesting analysis, bit of bullishness & HOPIUM for us. We’re going to need to be very patient, the price will explode some time after the next halvening. North of $300,000 in 2025 at some point imo. Prepare yourselves for a bear market until 2024 though, buy with all you have near & under $30,000. Bottom will be within 12 months, something like $25,000.


NFA
DYOR

[modrobert]

Bitcoin obituary in 3... 2... 1...
Happy dip-hunting, brothers 

It's too late for that...0...1...2...bounce

[xhomerx10]

Don't they have connections to China/Kazakhstan, as long as blocks can get through China/Kazakhstan BTC should be fine. It only takes one synced node to share the blocks with the rest.

Dipsh!t..You forgot Mongolia, Finland, North Korea, Georgia, Letonia, Estonia, Azerbaijan, Norway and Ukraine.

Where exactly is Letonia on the map?

 OPsec alert:
 Letonia occupies the same spacetime as Latvia but in Romania or Spanish... maybe Turkish.

edit: Greek

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[suchmoon]

I have specifically highlighted this part of your answer and removed the rest.  The remaining part of your message is the reason I will abstain from expressing my opinion about your reply.  I will only have two things to comment.  The way I see it is, the difference between what Putin has done and what Ukraine and their supportive countries have done is that one of them does things directly with immediately felt effects while the other seems to do the same things in a more silent, indirect, suppressive manner that makes them look innocent and like a savior to the rest of the world.

I'm not aware of Ukrainian government (even silently or whatever) invading Russia, bombing their civilians, arresting their own citizens for protesting, banning all independent media, etc, so no, that's not where the main differences are.

It is literally Russia being condemned for everything they do but when the United States or any European country does it, it is cheered and supported.  Is this really Whataboutism?

It is. Two wrongs don't make a right. If you can't make a coherent argument why some typically bad thing (like a military invasion) is actually good without resorting to "but others do it too", then said thing is probably not good.

Hyperbole doesn't help either. Russia literally condemned for everything it does? No. Not Russia, Putin, and not for everything, just the bad things he does (like a military invasion), although being a totalitarian dickhead he tends to do a lot of bad things.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

I think we may see a short term dip to the low 30Ks or even lower in the worst case scenario.

This week I think will be key with oil and gas prices going mental the central banks will have to react and I think most likely indicate that interest rate hikes are completely off the table.
Inflation is going to run rampant regardless of interest rate hikes anyway.

Whether governments will indicate that net zero green policies are out of the window for now I'm not sure, but probably not.

Personally I don't see how EVs will be viable if gas prices continue to go crazy (gas is used for much of electricity generation in Europe). Running them will cost as much as filling up with petrol soon and they cost far more to buy, so what is the point?

Once things settle down (and I think they probably will) towards the end of the year we could see major lift in the economies and a new ATH for BTC.

But for the moment I think it will be doom and gloom.

Down before up.... 

ok...

 

By the way, from my own personal perspective, outside from the sadness that your post brings me, I do have some trepidation that my earlier assertion that getting above $46k for a day might be insufficient for asserting that our $32,951 bottom from January 23rd  is "in"....   In that regard, based on so many dire uncertain macro-circumstances in the world, maybe the threshold needs to be moved up to staying above $50k for a day or more in order to assert that our $32,951 bottom is in...

In other words, I surely am not anywhere close to presuming that our $32,951 bottom is not in because that from my SOMA considerations we had never even gotten above $46k and furthermore the more difficult threshold of actually staying above that $46k price for at least a day..... so yeah in spite of various macro-uncertainties, we have largely been range bound between $32,951 and $45,850 for the past month and a half... and actually a month and a half does not even sound like a long time in the whole scheme of things, but surely it feels like a lifetime in terms of how many uncertainties many of us have been expressing through these here threads (and maybe I will even include yours truly within that).

Bitcoin is now the only global payment system that won’t discriminate against anyone, regardless of their race, nationality, religion, politics, or actions.

This is going to become incredibly important in the coming decades.”

Apompliano

I gave you my last merit as an encouragement.
And I'll add a small piece of advice: if it's a tweet, paste a link too 

Another piece of advice @OP: don't post the same quote all over the boards. It might get you banned from SWIFT this forum.

hahahaha

You are correct friends1980... our newbie buddy, LastWeek, does look like a bit of a shit poster.

Let's see what might stick, no?

 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

I am glad to see more members here feeling the same way I do.  For one moment, I had the feeling I was the only one.

It sucks that we are now living in a world in which your opinion is only listened to by others if it begins with the negation of you thinking different than what the mainstream media says.  My critical thinking about the war always has to begin with 'I am NOT supporting Putin nor am I supporting Ukraine'.  Whenever I do not do this, my opinion is immediately discarded.

And yes, all the darn fun watching charts is now gone.  There is some kind of guilt in the atmosphere whenever an asset you are watching goes a specific direction.  You just know this is not about Bitcoin getting us rich anymore, it is not about its success.  Now it is about the average human slowly going broke, about us possibly getting into the next World War and about the economy getting brutally screwed all around the world.

I hope I sent out merits to all of you who offered a feedback and have not missed anyone.  Feels good when you know others are on the same page with you.  Otherwise it felt like I was the one going nuts.

-
Regards,
PrivacyG

OMG... .tell me that it is not true.

Tell me that bitcoin still matters.

Tell me that talking about bitcoin, thinking about bitcoin and participating in this thread (and forum) still matters.


I hope so.


Am I the one filled with hopium now?


 

I think we may see a short term dip to the low 30Ks or even lower in the worst case scenario.
......[edited out]
But for the moment I think it will be doom and gloom.

This would make the mid term prediction of $32k bottom and subsequent bull market resume true.
At the other hand, it would form a double bottom, which is also bullish, afair. But i stopped believing in patterns too much anyway.
1BTC = 1BTC

hhahahaha OOM...

I am glad that you worked all of that out in your head.. that yeah, down before up is possible, but it surely is not a condition precedent.. and who even knows if it has odds that are much higher than 50/50 even though some people seem to be presuming such down before up scenarios to actually have pretty high odds at this time...

Go figure!

Monday morning charts

dyor

Bitcoin is up two and half points this morning, rebounding from overnight low of $37,592.73 and is currently trading near $39.4k

Toxicmoxic.. thinking of the devil (referring to my own thoughts.. hahahahaha)...

I have been considering your lil theory about bitcoin getting drug down with shitcoins.. and it is not exactly a way off theory.. but it does seem that sometimes there is a kind of dynamic in which the shitcoins continue to bleed.. but bitcoin stops bleeding as much.. and a kind of osmosis (or would we refer to it as group think?) starts to occur.. so in that regard, it seems that the memo starts to get out that it may be better to put value into king daddy rather than continuing to hope that these various frothy-assed shitcoins are going to recover.. blah blah blah..   In other words, let get off of these melting icecubes and get into something a wee bit more solid.. which would be king daddy... ... so in some sense, there can be some truth to the dynamic that both are going down together.. until they are not.. and I am not even going to presume anything in terms of sustainability or any kind of solid prediction when and how such froth purgening is going to play out.

[DaRude]

Are we so brainwashed we support local censorship but condemn Russians for doing the same?  Are we so brainwashed we call Putin's acts inhumane but we support hatred against average Russians who have nothing to do with this?  I have no idea.  One thing is sure, we are being lied one way or another.  Orwell was right.  We are currently living in his world without a doubt.  If someone has a contradictory argument, please come up and write it down.  I am really too confused by what is going on to understand what is good and bad anymore.

You've fallen into the trap of false equivalence.

Putin's regime attacked an independent country, lied about "military exercises" / no intention to attack Ukraine / "special operation" / not targeting civilians; threatened with nuclear weapons; persecutes, beats up, arrests people for merely saying "no to war", and that's just off the top of my head for the last couple of weeks.

Ukrainian government possibly lied about their losses in the war.

Same thing?

Surely some kremlintroll will be around soon to tell me that some Ukrainian lied about something else too. Also the US invaded countries. Et cetera. Whataboutism is a favorite tool of Soviet propaganda, very easy to use and quite effective on a mass scale.

Then there is this whole "average Russians" thing. I don't know who's telling you to hate them but you shouldn't. Average Russians are victims of the regime too.

I struggle with the whataboutism, sure, ethically you cannot justify littering just because you saw someone else do it. But in a competitive environment that simply doesn't work, and the appropriate term for such action is preferential treatment/discrimination, and it just gives an unfair advantage to one side. For my friends, everything; for my enemies, the law e.g. Coworker comes in late all the time, but the first time you come in 15min late to work you get written up/reprimanded. Or your team gets a fault for doing exactly the same thing that the opposing team was allowed to do the whole game. Or your kids test gets marked down for the same mistakes that all of the other kids got away with ...

As to your other angle, it all comes down to perspectives or frames of reference if you wish. One side tries to frame the conflict in terms of a separate, individual localized incident where Russia out of the blue attacks small Ukraine for a land grab. Very easy to argue for Ukraine as a victim and dismiss Russia with crazy Putin as a big bad aggressor, pretty clear cut whats good and bad.

But taking a step back and looking at a bigger picture you realize that suddenly things are not so simple, and some things don't make sense at all. Clearly by officially providing live intel and 17,000 anti-tank missiles and 2,000 stinger anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine makes it a proxy war for superpowers with Ukraine stuck in the middle. Now this is where things get very nuanced, not so black and white, and now whats good and whats bad isn't so clear anymore. Just because things are complicated doesn't make Russia right, but people start thinking, and this is not the field mass media and people with agenda, want to play on.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[fr4nkthetank]

....if there is ww3, this is what started it:

https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/126/eo14024_directive_4_02282022.pdf

prohibits the whole world other than possibly china to interact with the russian central bank.  That's what I would call a pre-emptive economic thermonuclear first strike

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[jojo69]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1500942297202102274

[JayJuanGee]

.....
....even a stopped clock can be correct from time to time - a couple times a day to be more precise.

Indeed....
However, there is no way for one to determine when it is correct, unless one has a working clock next to it, in which case, surely the stopped clock is not only useless, but also irrelevant....Perhaps?

Time is relative, so every watch is completely irrelative unless measured from a frame of reference.

Oh gawd... you two are getting way too philosophical, when the most basic point that I was attempting to make was that the dweeb known as Save the RF had happened to make a decent point - which is a rare event.... and, yeah, I will even concede that whether Save the RF had actually objectively made a decent point could also be a point of contention..

.....
....even a stopped clock can be correct from time to time - a couple times a day to be more precise.

Indeed....
However, there is no way for one to determine when it is correct, unless one has a working clock next to it, in which case, surely the stopped clock is not only useless, but also irrelevant....Perhaps?

I recall an old saying that went something like: You never take two clocks with you when you travel, you either take one or three.

What would you take with you if you were trying to verify Save the RF?  I'm thinking a sledge hammer might be a good start.

 

@therationalroot
The HODL Model: #Bitcoin 's illiquid supply is outpacing supply issuance.
As illiquid supply rises, so do the market impacts of bitcoin's digital scarcity.

Short 🧵👇

https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1500875223201042439?s=21


@therationalroot
The "HODL model hypothesis" is that bitcoin has crossed a historic inflection point where the asset's illiquid supply is outpacing the rate of new supply issuance. Future halvings with lower supply issuance will only exacerbate this divergence.

https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1500875232986353666?s=21


@therationalroot
Illiquid supply as a percentage of circulating supply will grow in a parabolic fashion as #Bitcoin 's digital scarcity drives investor behavior towards store of value as the dominant use case. As a result, illiquid supply will approach 80% of circulating supply by 2036.

https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1500875238220828672?s=21

@therationalroot
Liquid and highly-liquid supply will tighten as illiquid supply grows, leaving less bitcoin available on the market to acquire or trade.
New waves of demand that enter the market to acquire this declining available supply will then lead to exponential price increases.
https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1500875240494166017?s=21

@therationalroot
The HODL model predicts a conservative estimate of #Bitcoin 's available supply following the growth curve we saw above. Since illiquid supply share nears a low at the inflection point, a logical consequence would be for bitcoin's price to follow an inverse S-curve.
https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1500875242369011715?s=21

@therationalroot
The 'HODL Price Model' leverages the HODL Model's inflection & end point to create an an asymmetric s-curve following the projections of illiquid supply.

https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1500875247024701441?s=21

@therationalroot
Unlike a log-curve with a continuous decreasing slope, the HODL price model has an increasing slope from the inflection point onwards.
https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1500875249662849025?s=21

@therationalroot
With tighter liquid and highly-liquid supply, we see high increases in price at the beginning of bitcoin’s lifetime and then moderate price increases near the third halving’s inflection point. As available supply tightens again, we should expect higher price increases to follow.
https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1500875251399331845?s=21


Interesting analysis, bit of bullishness & HOPIUM for us. We’re going to need to be very patient, the price will explode some time after the next halvening. North of $300,000 in 2025 at some point imo. Prepare yourselves for a bear market until 2024 though, buy with all you have near & under $30,000. Bottom will be within 12 months, something like $25,000.

NFA
DYOR

Some of these cited articles/links/points seem to be highlighting a bit of an issue that seems to be currently present within bitcoinlandia, which is that there seems to be a certain amount of paper-supply bitcoin that has been issued and that seems to be retaining too many influences upon bitcoin current price dynamics, and surely many of us realize and appreciate that there is a certain solution that could be helpful to resolve aspects of the paper bitcoin issuance problema..... which is a 3x to 15x price surge, and then the count-response for the various paper bitcoin issuers would be to attempt to issue 10x to 100x more paper bitcoin in an attempt to push the BTC prices back down, but will they be able to get away with such nonsense ongoing manipulation attempts without getting called out (hopefully a severe and irreversible beating) from actual bitcoin HODLers?

I don't proclaim to know the answer.. but I do hope that a vase majority of these paper bitcoin issuers can get their asses beaten..even though I am not sure exactly how to accomplish such.. beyond HODLers claiming their keys and then ultimately placing high value on privately held BTC (which contrary would be lower value upon third party bitcoin's that seem to be not backed 1 to 1)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation