Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Quick clarification of a few things—

Ok.. no problem..

longer replies forthcoming later:

oh no !!!  Please don't.



#nohomo

[...] and probably my main contention with either your summary of OgNasty's viewpoint or even your own framing of the matter [...]

In the relevant post, OgNasty did not mention altcoins at all.  He said something about how people are now excited by a 5% price movement in BTC, whereas it used to take a 500% movement to get people’s attention.

oh gawd.    That's even a worse point, then.

I began writing a reply to the effect that traders seeking that magnitude of short-term returns are now either trading altcoins, or trading BTC-PERP at high leverage.  Sure, people can still get that fast 500% speculating on BTC price movements!  (Warning to newbies:  That’s at risk of instant, fully realized, unrecoverable loss from the market moving against you even 1%.  I like the concept of perps; but I would never try trading them on leverage (or even at all) unless I studied real quant stuff with fancy equations—mathematical finance, not TA astrology—wrote a good bot, backtested it, etc.)

O.k  Those are fair enough points.

I agree with the overall points of your responsive post DW, but you may be close to fantasylandia if you believe that bitcoin is anywhere even close to achieving gold's level of non-volatility in the next 50-100 years - so probably enough time that it really does not matter too much to our own physical meatspace existences but could be part of our legacy plannenings.. to the extent that we might have any or considering any.


I know that you were making other points.. yet there have been so many times that so many people are talking about bitcoin being stable or becoming stable and blah blah blah..

No, I don’t expect that kind of stability!  It was clearly wishful thinking.

I do recognize the need for price-stable currency, in addition to BTC.  I am not proposing a solution; I am stating a problem.  Anyone who still uses fiat shitcoins in permissioned banking systems is not permitted to argue with me about that:  You are using an altcoin, a central bank altcoin.  

 I will argue with you about it.

We come from various perspectives, and likely ONLY about 1% of the world's population is invested into bitcoin.

There is likely a considerable amount of prudence for a large number of fourm members to keepo some of their value in both worlds.  Sure, if you want to live some kind of extreme existence of having 100% in bitcoin (or crypto) then that is your choice....

And, you seem to be getting distracted if you believe that the topic of this thread has ever suggested that we should go 100% bitcoin (or crypto).. the other pairing of this topic is the USD.. so I doubt that we are even close to shedding or shrugging off the relevance of the dollar to this topic or to suggest that we transition into a new topic, when we likely still ONLY have around 1% world adoption into bitcoin, at best (not that we know the adoption numbers with any kind of meaningful precision, but 1% is a way better number to presume (whether we are referring to quantity of world monetization value in bitcoin or number of people in bitcoin who are stocked and fully loaded - to use a currently inept term) than to be projecting that we are even close to being able to transition into some kind of a system that is 100% bitcoin (and crypto blah blah blah)...

And the worst stablecoin scam is USD—the dollar itself.  It isn’t even stable:  Its price volatility for the past year-plus has been too large to qualify as “stable”, even if its volatility is still much lower than BTC’s.  Hey, maybe Do Kwon and Janet Yellen should get married!

Of course there tends to be a lot of nuance when attempting to make comparisons between various stable coins that might have backing of some sort, the USD of course is the other pairing of the topic of this thread.. so it is surely relevant, and even if we believe it is a scam, it is quite likely the strongest of all of the fiats, so we are ongoingly going to be referencing issues related to it..  and fuck Do Kwon and his likely knowing scam terra/Luna bullshit.. NOT even easy to give him much if any credibility.. and makes Janet Yellen look like a saint in comparison.. hahahaha #nohomo.

I appreciate the way you danced around the how much to talk about shitcoins topic, because getting into such does seem to have decent potentials of leading us astray,

I recognize the need to foster a local culture that chews up shitcoin shills and spits them out; and in that regard, I thank you for your longtime, sort of unofficial leadership handing out batslaps.  I may walk a fine line when I am seeking a more nuanced discussion of important topics.  WO is not generally a place for nuance, but there is the type of place with some highly intelligent regulars who sincerely care about these issues.

There may be some truth to the assertion that a lot of smart bitcoiners peruse and/or participate in this thread.. but at the same time, this is not a technical thread, so there are many times that the overall WO audience is not really equipped for some of the heavy-ass issues... and sometimes there will be threads that are dedicated to some of the more specialized topics that might be more appropriate in attempting to get a more focused audience - including that they might be specifically looking at the questions/subject matter that is being presented.

Even your seemingly hard-on of a recent focus on POS versus POW.. there is a thread that is already really great on that topic. .which quite a few folks with similar interests..   the thread has 8 pages, and is ONLY a bit more than 3 months old.. so for sure current discussions and active participants (not self-moderated either.. so they would not even need to like you.. hahahahaaha).

[Megathread] The long-known PoW vs. PoS debate

Sometimes, when I read some of the posts in that thread I have no fucking clue when trying to read some of their technical points, but for someone like you, who seems to be way more technical than me and who seems to be currently interested in that topic, it would seem to be a good thing for you to chime into that thread.. either to tell them that they are crazy, or they can tell you that you are crazy or you can all join just hug it out kumbaya style.  

In other words, this thread is filled with wannabe bitcoin-maxi generalists and jokers (if anyone wants a label?) and even if we may well touch upon some of the hot topics of the day in bitcoinlandia, frequently we may well link out to those kinds of more specified topics rather than getting in full-fledged debate mode in these here parts that may well end up causing this thread to become too focused on one narrow topic rather than more general bitcoin happenings..

So, yeah, you may well complain that some of the members in this thread here are not responding to some of your bitcoin related points on a deep enough level, and part of the reason could well be that we are not deep people in these here parts..  hahahahaha (maybe I am just self reflecting?, but whatever... oc course there are some members who are deeper and who are more  technical, but still some of those guys might not be participating in this here thread to get bogged down in some of the more narrow (even though still bitcoin-related) topics either.)

Dealing with some recent messes, I have recently had to spend some time reading “crypto-Twitter” (which is usually nonexistent in my world).  I think that my eyeballs will soon start bleeding from sheer horror; and I’m pretty sure that that’s what WO would eventually look like, without Jay raining hellfire on anyone who tries to pump some garbage here.

I have heard that some people curate their twitter feeds, so that they might be able to filter ut some of the more noisy chatter.  I do agree with you that if people do not say anything, then the conversation has a tendency to devolve.. so I am not sure.  Of course, in the end, members can post whatever the fuck they want in this thread, and sure some will continue to post that kind of loosely relevant and shilling/pumping kind of stuff, and say - "everyone else is using the word 'crypto' without even describing what they mean... blah blah blah.. "   hahahahaha.. which seems to be a pretty lame excuse.. but surely those kinds of excuses do happen.

Edit:  Tweak wording to disambiguate the intent of a statement scrawled in haste.  I’m pretty damn sure that both Jay and OgNasty know what leveraged perp trading is, lol.

I would not claim to have any kind of specific and personal knowledge regarding how the various financial instruments are used since I do not tend to use them, even though I understand that there could be ways to use various kinds of financial instruments in ways that are profitable.. my tendency is to largely play around with ongoing longs.. and maybe closing some of them from time to time, but hardly any leverage except sometimes I will use debt instruments for various kinds of cashflow supplementing.

Of course, I understand some of the basics (or is it lingo of the trading/gambling business) including the ideas of margin leverage (and using multiples) and getting called and covering your position and things like that.. so I am not sure if there would be any need for you to describe or explain any further in terms of the context that you were suggesting (or the points that you were seeming to want to make) that there is extreme risk when some of the inexperienced normies (who might want to get rich quicker than is feasible) using leverage (even though there are possibilities for great pay off if the person using those kinds of financial tools get the price direction right and they are able to close their position(s) before get reversal comes that ends up causing them to get reckt or perhaps going into the negative when they could have closed in the positive, but they got too greedy, etc etc etc.).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Khanvila78]

Invested absolutely everything he owned in Bitcoin at $15, 11 years ago.

King 👑


https://twitter.com/pete_rizzo_/status/1532703931758936064

[Blue King]

 


https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1532886850922287104

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

........we will have 10-12 days of dumping.

I am very bullish after that. .....

Down before up...

Where have I heard that before?

If we don't go down now! (In the next 2 weeks or 10 days)

Then we will probably go to somewhere between $37K < > $42K for the short term and then we will have to be dragged down trough the last part of July > then full August > then full September > then full October!!! > Then and last the first part of November and we are done with dumping. And we will have then to start growing.    

Sounds like you have it all figured out.

If we don't go down and then Up, we will largely get stuck in a zone until November - which is largely saying sideways.

Could be.  I suppose that it does not hurt to have a backup plan in the event that down before up does not play out as you are anticipating (on the edge of your seat, I imagine).

Do you think you will keep handling this garbage again from July to November??    

I will go where ever this pig takes me... that is quoting from BillyJoeAllen in 2011 or whatever... hahahaha

6 months of sideways does seem a bit long.. and depressing.. but if that's what is in the cards, then so be it...

I might be exaggerating a wee bit.. because if we do not end up getting down (below $25,401 or down to the 200-week moving average or below).. and we are largely stay between $28k and $42k, then that surely would not be the end of the world, and surely allows normies (who are informed about bitcoin to continue to accumulate).. I hate to have such a solid opinion, but I do appreciate that going below the 100-week moving average (which is currently at $35,800) for a considerable amount of time (3 weeks already) could cause a considerable amount of time (even something like the 6 months that you are suggesting) to reverse and get back into UPpity mode.  It could reverse more quickly than 6 months.. and it could take longer than 6 months to reverse.. I hate to get too wedded into proclaiming that any kind of reversal has to take a certain amount of time to play out... even though it does seem difficult to presume UPpity is going to happen very easily while we are still a bit below the 100-week moving average..

Invested absolutely everything he owned in Bitcoin at $15, 11 years ago.

King 👑


https://twitter.com/pete_rizzo_/status/1532703931758936064

I looked at the Pete Rizzo tweet and the referenced article, and I am pretty sure that is referencing the same author of the wealthy elite gentlemen thread..

Astrohacker (his forum name was Atlas)

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=12156.0

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

Everybody get the price of bitcoin they deserved.
If you figured it out in 2011, invested a lot, held and wasn't devastated by MtGox, etc, kudos to you.
There are probably only a few hundred to few thousand people like this in the world.
Most of these people do not post here, I assume, with a few exceptions.
Some people, like CZ, started later, but made much much more than a pure hodler because they run a business that emphasized the trend.

One thing that miffs me a bit after so many years is why the legitimacy of bitcoin is still being discussed and attacked so many years later.
Compare with internet: in 1999-2000 it was already clear that Internet would support many kinds of businesses and since then nobody (or almost nobody) opined that "we gonna tax that 'evil' internet or declare that it consumes too much server power".

It seems that bitcoin is much more contested, which was a real surprise to me in the last two years.
I cannot think of any argument in favor of fiat world with constantly losing purchasing power from wages, year after year after year.
There is a need for a factor that balances this and this factor is clearly bitcoin.

Do we have an alternative that can potentially save us from the effects of inflation?
Apart from bitcoin and gold, we don't and gold has it's own 'problems'.

EDIT: RE can protect in a stable inflation, but cannot in the rapidly rising inflation because it is a leveraged purchase and your buying power is devastated by the higher rates. Therefore, current homeowners, who bought houses at 2-4.5% interest, might not be able to find buyers (presumably) at higher prices when interest rates would be 8% (which they should be already).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[death_wish]

One thing that miffs me a bit after so many years is why the legitimacy of bitcoin is still being discussed and attacked so many years later.
Compare with internet: in 1999-2000 it was already clear that Internet would support many kinds of businesses and since then nobody (or almost nobody) opined that "we gonna tax that 'evil' internet or declare that it consumes too much server power".

Short answer 1:  Not to be snide, but either you are very young, or you have a short memory.  The way you said that—LOLWUT?  Of course, there was and is plenty of hyperventilating about the “evil Internet!!!!”

The Internet ignited political firestorms over free speech, among other issues.  Remember the Blue Ribbon campaign?

Your 1999–2000 timeframe was full of Internet controversies—many of which continue to this day, in some form and in some degree.  I recall a ton of mass-media FUD about how the Internet is a tool for criminals—infested with hackers, scammers, and child molesters—a scary place, a scary thing that can literally get you kidnapped or murdered if you are so crazy or stupid as to try (gasp!) “online dating”.

Today, it has morphed into scaremongering about how we all need salvation delivered at the hands of the heroic Trust and Safety Teams at Twitter, Facebook “Meta”, and other centralized silos of heavily censored, manipulated communications.  Forget 1999–2000.  It’s 2022, and the free Internet is still under attack by those whose vision of the “Internet” is a new and worse version of AOL, et al.

That reminds me—not specifically about your post, but about the state of “crypto”:

Old-school “crypto” cred is reserved for those who remember the first iteration of the Crypto Wars:  U.S. export restrictions, Netscape SSL with 40-bit keys, LOL.  Activists getting RSA tattoos, in the timeframe you state.  Long before it even reached that point, PGP was created by Phil Zimmerman as an activist-who-changes-the-world-by-writing-code type of response to then-Senator Joe Biden’s bill to ban strong encryption!

Bitcoin and PGP share DNA:  Hal Finney, who was essentially the co-creator of PGP, was Bitcoin User #2 who received the very first non-coinbase Bitcoin transaction from Satoshi (some interesting analysis).

Anyone who doesn’t use PGP has no crypto-cred, IMNSHO.  Because PGP is real crypto.  “Crypto” does not mean a VC-owned cesspit of Twitter-shilling for shitcoins:  It means cryptography.  It means using Bitcoin, PGP, Tor (Satoshi himself used Tor!), and otherwise intelligently applied cryptography (sorry, Jay, I will include some halfway-decent altcoins in that; I think it’s sad that >99.9% of altcoins give the rest a bad name).  If you don’t use PGP, then you are a n00b and a poseur as bad as a nocoiner.  Security and privacy are important issues, just as financial freedom is an important issue; I will shame the hell out of anyone who does not care about important issues.  Now, get off my lawn!

Short answer 2:  The Internet was not created to protect people from big-bank corruption.  Did you really suppose that the big banks, their pet politicians, and the whole system of financial corruption would take Bitcoin lying down?  Are Bitcoiners really that naïve?

POS and the “too much energy” organized propaganda campaign are political and economic attacks for the benefit of those who don’t want you to “Be Your Own Bank”.

A few months ago, I wrote a long rant to a friend about how the market is corrupted because traders figure PnL in dollars—everything is dollarized...  Years ago, a higher proportion of Bitcoin traders figured PnL in BTC.

Why do you have such a tendency to frequently frame matters in terms of "the good ole days used to be better", but now "things are going to shit?"  Asking for a friend.

Because it’s true.

Earlier, I wrote a long essay about this.  Set it aside.  Mulling it.

Thanks for the protip about that POW vs. POS megathread.  If you don’t mind, it may absorb energies that would have gone into finishing long replies to your earlier long replies on that subject—not sure yet.  I wrote too much to you, not too little—I got bogged down trying to organize it and cut it down to something other than publishing books in WO.  I appreciate the discussion with you.

Edit:  Minor clarifications.  Edit:  Some significant elaboration.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[death_wish]

credit: btcKaz (screenshot/image found on Reddit)

My fav image I have seen He is right. If you look at it with household items or items you usually buy you can see that there is a similar correlation to be made. Look at fuel costs or energy costs.

Good point, in concept.  Thanks for raising it.  But the graphic is wrong; the numbers are way off.  To start with, in 1970, $1 bought much more than a burger!  WTF?  In 1970, a burger cost a fraction of a dollar.  People need to get their data straight.

For hard numbers based on more than handwaving, I don’t have an historical burger price index handy myself; but a one-minute web search finds plausible allegations that in 1970, the average price of a burger in the U.S. was $0.18.  That tweet is off by >5x.  If @btcKaz wants to price BTC the same way, I will be happy to sell him some BTC for $150k right now (to arb him for BTC profits, so that I can immediately buy >5x more BTC!).

Although I have not personally vetted all of its numbers, this site will hit you in the face with a solid wall of verifiable types of stats on the dollar’s volatility and long-term downtrend:
https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/

Example:




For the record, I wrote the following before I saw that screenshotted tweet.  I have been thinking much about dollar volatility, and the incongruity of “stablecoins” pegged to an unstable altcoin:

I do recognize the need for price-stable currency, in addition to BTC.  I am not proposing a solution; I am stating a problem.  Anyone who still uses fiat shitcoins in permissioned banking systems is not permitted to argue with me about that:  You are using an altcoin, a central bank altcoin.  And the worst stablecoin scam is USD—the dollar itself.  It isn’t even stable:  Its price volatility for the past year-plus has been too large to qualify as “stable”, even if its volatility is still much lower than BTC’s.  Hey, maybe Do Kwon and Janet Yellen should get married!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[AnotherAlt]

This is something I would love to watch when BTC reaches $21k or 200 WMA.

$21K isn't probably going to happen any time soon.

The best case for bears is to return to the new lows. The 200-week MA will presumably get up to speed to the lows when that occurs.

Doubtlessly result is rangebound somewhere in the range of $25K and $33K.

[AnotherAlt]

More Adoption.

#Hodl #Bitcoin-is-Freedom

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Mbitr]

Just seen this on Reddit  Love the comments too  






https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/v3rodr/life_costs_double_these_days/

[AnotherAlt]

@El duderino_

Are we going to see a new Summer game this summer? It's June 4th Today.

I guess everyone from the WO knows about El duderino_'s special summer game. But, For those, Who don't know what I am talking about. You may want to check the previous game from here.

A member LIST .. What do we speculate the price will be this summer JOIN IN
Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! (This was a Winter game)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation