Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[julian071]

I just closed a long on

[Torque]

Pretty hilarious to watch the stonk market now 'barting' everyday, seesawing back and forth between equities and the 10-year.

I thought only the Bitcoin market did that. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[proudhon]

This just in: price will be much lower tomorrow. Scientifically confirmed and guaranteed. That's all.

[Gachapin]

This just in: price will be much lower tomorrow. Scientifically confirmed and guaranteed. That's all.

Thank god... I thought we'd never go up again..

[death_wish]

This just in: price will be much lower tomorrow. Scientifically confirmed and guaranteed. That's all.

This means that Bitcoin will rocket off to $100k before I can even free up my sad, mutilated remainder of a bitcoin, and then $1 million as I struggle helplessly to build up a whole 1.0 BTC again.

Scientifically confirmed and guaranteed.

proudhon, you stupid llama, would you please go back to predicting $70k before the end of the month, or whatever?  Thanks.  I need some breathing room here.

[OROBTC]

...

Thank you for the short punchy note proudhon.  Nice and to the point.

*   *   *

Aleks Svetski often writes very interesting stuff.  In his latest article (link below) he rolls several nice themes all together.  

-- Past, present and future
-- The Bible, the Vedic Samhitas and the Tao Te Ching
-- Fiat and lies...
-- “show don’t tell”
-- Bitcoin vs. shitcoin

Please don't miss the image of "The Helth Ministers"!  <--- [A fine example of a "Double Sic"]

A short passage I much enjoyed:

"Bitcoin is like the Old Testament God, in that it is a consequential god. There is no free lunch, nor ignorance of sin or error. You pay the price for mistakes, but if you heed them and adapt, you shall find that “God is good.”"

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/bitcoin-shows-you-not-tell-you

[HI-TEC99]

This just in: price will be much lower tomorrow. Scientifically confirmed and guaranteed. That's all.

Was your May rally to $70k confirmed by math and bad science? I can't understand how you got it wrong.

...

I think we really could see $70k this month.

[Gachapin]

I tend to agree....


"bitcoin seems a bit undervalued..."



https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1534946812506918919?cxt=HHwWjsC-ycr_nM0qAAAA

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[death_wish]

[...]

-- The Bible, the Vedic Samhitas and the Tao Te Ching

[...]

"Bitcoin is like the Old Testament God, in that it is a consequential god. There is no free lunch, nor ignorance of sin or error. You pay the price for mistakes, but if you heed them and adapt, you shall find that “God is good.”"

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/bitcoin-shows-you-not-tell-you

To put this as delicately as I can, with gross understatement:  It does not help with the “Bitcoin is a cult” meme.

Yes, I sometimes speak of Bitcoin in quasi-religious terms.  I am clearly satirizing and spoofing the nocoiner criticism that “Bitcoin is a cult”.  I am having fun:  Ridiculing the nocoiner notion that I am in some sort of a cult, and also taking a self-deprecating comedic look at myself as a zealous Bitcoiner.  If I couldn’t laugh about this, I think there would be something wrong with me.

This scribbler is serious.

The Bible, The Vedic Samhitas, The Tao Te Ching and all of the great written works of religion are methods of helping illuminate “the way.”

Linked, by the same author:

Bitcoin, Personality And Development Part Four — Bitcoin, Religion And Morality

Aleksandar Svetski
Jun 6, 2022

[...]

We’re going to close this chapter out by reviewing Bitcoin’s relationship to religion, the Bible, and its semblance to Old Testament God through the reintroduction to economic consequence.

[...]

And is further echoed by Dr. Peterson in Chapter 4 of his book “12 Rules For Life”:

[...]

Now here’s the mind-blowing part:

Bitcoin is a new form of religion (and thus chapter in human history) [...]

Some of his other propositions (not quoted here) seem to be plagiarism of things written by others—an inferior rip-off.

Much of the rest comes off as “pitching the woo”.  It is repulsive to any rational thinker.

Once again, Bitcoin is a manifestation of faith. [...]

To believe that Bitcoin can win, is to have faith in the capacity for goodness to prevail. [...]

A belief in Bitcoin requires something more than empiricism. [...]

“You might start by not thinking — or, more accurately, but less trenchantly, by refusing to subjugate your faith to your current rationality, and its narrowness of view. This doesn’t mean ‘make yourself stupid.’ It means the opposite. It means instead that you must quit maneuvering and calculating and conniving and scheming and enforcing and demanding and avoiding and ignoring and punishing. It means you must place your old strategies aside. It means, instead, that you must pay attention, as you may never have paid attention before.”

If I gave a damn for this author’s opinion, I would dump BTC after reading that.

As it is, I need to struggle with the damage that this sort of nonsense causes.  I already have enough problems explaining to nocoiners, and even to other Bitcoiners, why I am emotionally attached to money—why I mix idealism and passions with cut-and-dry business—why I sometimes knowingly make self-harming financial decisions that are economically irrational, in the game-theoretic sense of a “rational actor”.

And if I were to dump Bitcoin at $31k $30,500, and the bottom was already in - eh, you guessed it. ☠️

So, bearing in mind that I am not strictly rational about BTC in the sense of "an economically rational actor", what is the least-bad choice?

Heater, you were right.  In retrospect, it came to pass that your advice, which I rejected, could have saved me significant BTC.  Thank you for your time and thoughtfulness.  Unfortunately, as I told Jay somewhere, I am not an "economically rational actor" about Bitcoin.

[cAPSLOCK]

OK.... What the fuck?

Satoshi Nakamoto wrote production software that has stood up to 13 years of the most difficult pressure a production distributed database could possibly...

... no wait a moment.  That sentence is so amazing already that it can't just be wrapped up with a few more nouns and adjectives.  He invented a trust minimized distributed database.  That in itself is miraculous.  It had never been done before.  And now that it is done, it cannot be reproduced very easily at all.

He knew he had one shot to get it.

And calling it "production software"?  Well it IS that.  But on a level unlike just about anything else in "production".  I suppose software that runs the power grid.  Or perhaps the firmware that runs certain sorts of medical equipment or systems, might come close....

It is art.  But this is not like some moving still life painted by a master.  It's the damned Sistine Chapel.

This is as believable that one person has actually done this, as someone having invented a time machine.  These things don't just work.  You don't spend a weekend typing furiously and coming out with software that will change the world... just like that... version 0.1.

Yes.  There have been bugs.  And there have been tweaks, AND improvements.  AND there are things that could have been different.  Questions that still hang in the air.  Will the disappearing block reward matter?  Will quantum computers break SHA2? Is Craig Wright gay?  Only time will tell.

But consider the ridiculous amount of thought that had to have gone into making something this perfect.  This perfectly balanced.

Who tested it?  Where is the version that crashed.  The version that people played with for a few months before they found the flaw.  Before they figured out a way to profit unfairly.  Right.  That never happened.  The cheaters had to write new software to pull that off... Bitcoin was incorruptible.

A wise man once said "Quick, no time for explanations... give me your pants."

That is, in my humble opinion, as close as anyone has ever come to explaining how this is even POSSIBLE in the first place.

[death_wish]

Will quantum computers break SHA2?

No.  (They would, however, break the elliptic curve cryptography that Bitcoin uses for digital signatures.)


I’m not sure what the point was for the rest of that post.  I simply wanted to correct a technical misconception, as I not infrequently do in the technical forum.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

Rephrase what I said, according to its context:  In the hypothetical event of a total ban, >99% of people here could be easily stopped from using Bitcoin.

for anyone of us in the USA (you know, land of the "free") a government ban would certainly stop almost all of us in their tracks. even if youre not kyc'd anywhere, use tor, decentralized exchanges etc i would wager they would find out anyway. maybe if you live totally off the grid and never go near civilization it could be done but thats not for me. call me a wimp or whatever, i need modern society to live comfortably. especially modern medicine.

understand: i HATE kyc and the government snooping in our business to the point they just hoover all info they can to store and analyze  for "security/terrorism/etc" purposes even when its not currently useful. as they can always make some law in the future and look back at all that collected data to retroactively get you on some law that doesnt even exist right now. 

look, i will mess with a lot of things but one entity i wont mess with is the irs. they have NO sense of humor. makes me glad i did not hide my btc gains even before the irs targeted it. call me a wimp but thats what we here in the USA need to do to exist in peace.

bleh.

In the USA you could mine to an address and never touch it.

I kyc everything fully transparent and I now did an LLC with buysolar. I had a schedule c but turning 65 and wanting to still work my accountant advised using an account with the business name on it for bitcointalk.

 Thus the new account vs philipma1957.  Thinking BTC is truly private and stealthy holds back its adoption as that is my opinion.

phil (or LLC2022), you seem to mix a few things (anything below is not an advice, consult CPA):
1. btctalk and business are two different "things" that don't have to be related, lol.
2. If it is a one member LLC, then taxes are being channeled to your INDIVIDUAL 1040. If LLC has more than one member, then it is more like a corp, which has both advantages and disadvantages.
3. You can very well mine to an account, but still record it and pay proper taxes on all proceeds (after accounting for expenses).

I sell a lot of gear .

I wont be selling with this account.

I will be using the LLC account to sell from now on.

I did a schedule c and used philipma1957 to sell here and on ebay for years and years and years.

I will not be doing a schedule c with the two person LLC .

I will be closing the schedule c business.

So since I have sold 10s of thousands of gear in the past I want zero confusion when I sell off a lot of gear.

[Biodom]

Rephrase what I said, according to its context:  In the hypothetical event of a total ban, >99% of people here could be easily stopped from using Bitcoin.

for anyone of us in the USA (you know, land of the "free") a government ban would certainly stop almost all of us in their tracks. even if youre not kyc'd anywhere, use tor, decentralized exchanges etc i would wager they would find out anyway. maybe if you live totally off the grid and never go near civilization it could be done but thats not for me. call me a wimp or whatever, i need modern society to live comfortably. especially modern medicine.

understand: i HATE kyc and the government snooping in our business to the point they just hoover all info they can to store and analyze  for "security/terrorism/etc" purposes even when its not currently useful. as they can always make some law in the future and look back at all that collected data to retroactively get you on some law that doesnt even exist right now.  

look, i will mess with a lot of things but one entity i wont mess with is the irs. they have NO sense of humor. makes me glad i did not hide my btc gains even before the irs targeted it. call me a wimp but thats what we here in the USA need to do to exist in peace.

bleh.

In the USA you could mine to an address and never touch it.

I kyc everything fully transparent and I now did an LLC with buysolar. I had a schedule c but turning 65 and wanting to still work my accountant advised using an account with the business name on it for bitcointalk.

 Thus the new account vs philipma1957.  Thinking BTC is truly private and stealthy holds back its adoption as that is my opinion.

phil (or LLC2022), you seem to mix a few things (anything below is not an advice, consult CPA):
1. btctalk and business are two different "things" that don't have to be related, lol.
2. If it is a one member LLC, then taxes are being channeled to your INDIVIDUAL 1040. If LLC has more than one member, then it is more like a corp, which has both advantages and disadvantages.
3. You can very well mine to an account, but still record it and pay proper taxes on all proceeds (after accounting for expenses).

I sell a lot of gear .

I wont be selling with this account.

I will be using the LLC account to sell from now on.

I did a schedule c and used philipma1957 to sell here and on ebay for years and years and years.

I will not be doing a schedule c with the two person LLC .

I will be closing the schedule c business.

So since I have sold 10s of thousands of gear in the past I want zero confusion when I sell off a lot of gear.

All I was saying is that it would complicate your return, perhaps.
It's much more 'involved' than a single person LLC.
You would have to decide if you want to be a C-corp or a S-corp. If S-corp, then "owners need to draw a reasonable salary".
You would also need an "operating agreement".
Your CPA can probably fetch all that info, but here is something to start:

https://www.upcounsel.com/two-member-llc

EDIT: if the second person in LLC is your wife, then it is even more complicated (depending on in which state the LLC was formed).
In 9 states an LLC with wife is treated as a single member LLC (with simplified tax treatment). New Jersey is NOT a community property state, but Nevada and Texas are.
BTW, you don't have to form LLC in your home state; in fact, many are formed in Nevada for some reason.
CPA should know all this and, perhaps, already informed you. Good luck!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation