Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[somac.]

Nice drops

BTC down

and all major shitcoins down worse.

Do you know what the miner breakevens are at these days?

about 15c/kwh for S19pro (without mininer cost amortization).
many people have much less price of power.

Sorry, I mean the point where miners start shutting down equipment because BTC price is too low.


Big down candle in 3.....2.....1

[Biodom]

Nice drops

BTC down

and all major shitcoins down worse.

Do you know what the miner breakevens are at these days?

about 15c/kwh for S19pro (without mininer cost amortization).
many people have much less price of power.

Sorry, I mean the point where miners start shutting down equipment because BTC price is too low.


Big down candle in 3.....2.....1

easy to calculate from my initial numbers....at 5c/kwh, they won't until about 8.8K/btc; at 10c/kwh until 17.6K/btc.
it strictly depends on their electricity supply price.
they would also mine at a small loss, but only for a limited time.

[a1 Hashrate LLC2022]

Nice drops

BTC down

and all major shitcoins down worse.

Do you know what the miner breakevens are at these days?

well hard to say but btc is at 11 cents a th.

So a 50th s17 earns $5.50 a day

it burns 50 kwatts so if you have

12 cent power down 50 cents
11 cent power up.      0 cents
10 cent power up     50 cents
 9  cent power up     $1.00
 8  cent power up.    $1.50
 7  cent power up.    $2.00


so all big miners with cheap power are doing well

ie at

six cent     $2.50 a day
five cent    $3.00 a day
four cent   $3.50 a day
three cent $4.00 a day

if you believe the floor is set by mining

edit the floor has been in the 5-6 cent power costs and  we are not there.

we are at 11 cent for break even so if you think we are hitting the floor

it can mean more hash and lower  price.



edit:
So a 1000 unit s17 mine is making 2500 a day if they are at 6 cent cost.

no one is really under 3 cent cost as buildings, gear repair  and workers add to cost.

Many big farms get in trouble at 6-8 cents.

Now .6 x 11 cents is 6.6 cents so

.6 x 26k = 15.6k this means real trouble if we go there and stay there.

as 50 x 6.6 = $3.30
and 6 x 50 = $3.00   30 cents a unit

and I am not going into s19 gear  just s17 as a lot of mines are fully paid off s17 gear.

if a farm switched to s19 and is in debt they will fail at 15.6k price.

I don't see us going to 15.6k maybe 18.8k or 19.5k

oh Meth is dropping like a mofo down to 1350

[OROBTC]

...

They (.gov, Mainstream Media, WEF, etc.) are gaslighting us, guys.

Gaslighting is an especially nasty form of lying, where the liars try to make it look like the victim is at fault or even insane.  It is insidious, and they use psychological trickery, it's quite advanced the progress that has been made in propaganda.

Stock futures are down hard tonight.  The investor classes are now awake to the fact that inflation is nowhere near as low as 8.6%...  Job losses are incoming, wages are stagnant in our inflationary environment.  Whatever gains in wages that come will not nearly keep up with the current inflation, and might not even come close should inflation get worse.  It will almost surely get worse.

Many assets are at risk as well.  Home values will likely start down as mortgage rates go up.  Homes have already shot up in price (as have rents).

Assets and wages are going down.  Living expenses are going up.

And typically what happens AFTER bad inflation is a crash.  Typically very ugly.  25% unemployment level depressions seem to occur once in a lifetime (Fourth Turning).

And they are looking at war.....


So what to do?  

First, debt may look good in an inflationary epoch, but the banks will cotton on to that very soon and index interest rates on loans (bankers are not stupid), STAY OUT OF DEBT to the extant you can.  

Second, BTC seems to be the only "crypto" worth a damn (and I have looked at various "Alts" in some detail), so yes I would HODL BTC and I will be buying (poco-a-poco) more.  Still, I have not become convinced that BTC is invincible, that a .gov attack of one nasty sort or another could severely damage BTC despite it's many strengths.  I know and understand this is not a popular view here at W.O.  All I can really suggest is that over-concentration in one asset is way riskier that I would certainly do.

Third, my moniker here suggests that I hold gold.  Everyone should consider owning some physical gold, and keep it carefully hidden.  Cash too.  If you have a solid small business, great.

Fourth, there are tons of websites about "preparation", Plan Bs, diversification into non-traditional assets, etc.  Most folks here no doubt have looked into some of this in some detail.  Preparation, I have found through these many years, is a complex topic, it is also expensive. Many family members of a "prepper" may object, that can cause its own set of problems.  Preparation is wildly different for each person, depending on a huge range of factors, all of them interrelated and uncertain...  

Uncertainty is a big problem too, for who knows what will happen?  I sure don't.  I have many doubts about everything.  I have no idea what will happen in the future, what pandemics are next, what Klaus Schwab or Bill Gates or Nancy Pelosi will try next.  NO ONE knows what will happen.

In the past several weeks I have become more convinced that we have relatively little time left to get ready for a very rough storm.  Keep your heads down.  Lower your risks.  Get going on protecting yourself and your legacy.  Think long-term.

/rant


edited

[somac.]

Nice drops

BTC down

and all major shitcoins down worse.

Do you know what the miner breakevens are at these days?

about 15c/kwh for S19pro (without mininer cost amortization).
many people have much less price of power.

Sorry, I mean the point where miners start shutting down equipment because BTC price is too low.


Big down candle in 3.....2.....1

easy to calculate from my initial numbers....at 5c/kwh, they won't until about 8.8K/btc; at 10c/kwh until 17.6K/btc.
it strictly depends on their electricity supply price.
they would also mine at a small loss, but only for a limited time.

Yeah it's that average electricity cost of all miners that I'm curious about. Thought Phil might have an idea about that, I know he is on the low end of the scale though. From those numbers looks like below 20 there might be a bit of shutting things down then.

[Gachapin]

...under 500 Billion market cap

Are all these sells actually real?

Aren't there quite some exchanges selling non existing coins to buy back lower?

[BitcoinBunny]

500 billion is still an enormous amount.
Just because we have stupid debt figures in the trillions and some rich bozos like Bezos around doesn't diminish that fact.

It would take 15,000 years to count to 500 billion!

Counting to a million takes less than 12 days.

[BobLawblaw]

* BobLawblaw yawns

[somac.]

...under 500 Billion market cap

Are all these sells actually real?

Aren't there quite some exchanges selling non existing coins to buy back lower?

Yeah I've always wondered who does all the selling. I mean you would think all the weak hands have dropped out of the market by now. Maybe it is larger players needing collateral for unrelated positions in other markets.

[Biodom]

It would take 15,000 years to count to 500 billion!

who is counting?
lol

[death_wish]

I got liquidated again.

This time, I didn’t see it happen.  I saw the BTC ticker dropping, I ran into a computer problem, and by the time I got into my account—more bitcoin gone!  Little itty-bit left.

This really leaves me kicking myself.  I had one month since my last liquidation to figure this out.  I was (and am) totally trapped financially; so, I sat like a deer in the headlights.  Then, got distracted by matters which, important though they may be, I could not properly afford to give such focus in this circumstance.  I should spend less time worrying about Bitcoin, less time writing about Bitcoin, and more time worrying about myself and whether I will have any Bitcoin.

Time to be a ruthless mercenary capitalist.

Oh, in case the newbies didn’t get it:  MARGIN SUCKS!!!  Six months ago, my financial position was beautiful.  I was not rich; but I had a decent position, it was consistently improving over time, and best of all—my position was stable.  If I had never touched margin, then I would now be munching popcorn, laughing at all the people who are worried, and looking for the best way to buy some cheap coins (for cash, without margin).  But I am financially dependent on assets that are, um, gone.  Whoops.

If even one naïve n00b is deterred from margin by my flouting this in public—well, I can’t say it will have been worth it.  No way.  But at least, some good will come out of this.

WTF, did I jinx myself by quoting mindrust in an earlier post?

If we really visit the $23k range, I could get liquidated again-again.  I ought to avoid repeating the same mistake.

[savetherainforest]

This price is still too high for me to buy   Come on, bears, you can do better! At least try again to break 25K unless you have small d..ks!!!

It needs to be 70% from the "top" that was 69K, that means it will be around 20K.

Why does it need to be 70% from the top? Haven't heard that one before. Better than 83% from the top theory at least.

I could argue price needs 1 year to bottom out since the downtrend begun on the week of May 10th 2021.

This would mean price bottomed out for the cycle 4 weeks ago  

Meanwhile, today looks more bullish than bearish now.

The week looks bad though.

Hmmmm... Well it doesn't need to be 70% . It could be 69% or 68%.

Or it can be greater then 70%+.    

I was half assing it. Because the truth is that it is similar to a folding paper mechanic. You fold it until you can't, because the pressure is too great and you are just physically incapable of doing it and the paper will spring back.

But basically at around 65%+ we start to go into 'retarded territory' and that theoretical spring starts to coil. After 72% it's just a hot potato game, or a chair game, where the last one holding the cash keeps the crash.    

I like the analogy, at least the 70%+ theory for 2018 rang true, that of selling below $6K. Sure it came down to $3.2K, but unless selling was to buy lower, it was a stupid selling moment long-term. However in 2020 while price did drop 70%+, the "retarded territory" (of selling) you reference was more like @ 60+%, that of $5.5K or the 200 Week MA more specifically. A 70% drop I consider a bear market, even if short-lived.

Currently price is already down 60% @ $27.5K. 70% would be around $21K. While I still don't doubt price could come this low, it certainly doesn't "need to". Point is if price did bottom out at ~$25K, then it'd be because price dropped 83% in 2018, 73% in 2020 and the 63% in 2022.  The irony would therefore be statistical, that of crashes being less by %, after increases being less by % terms.

I feel like some people are overlooking what is happening here per cycle, that of a confirmed pattern of Bitcoin's recoveries from bear markets.

2011 could be considered a miracle (first recovery)
2014 could be considered a coincidence (second recovery)
2018 would be considered as a confirmed pattern (third recovery)
2022 would be what you'd expect from a pattern (fourth recovery)

It'd impossible to claim that 2022 needs to be correct as previous years, as since 2018 Bitcoin confirmed a pattern of recovery from bear markets cycles, so the risk is exponentially less.

No! .. I really needs.  I am stating that "it needs"because around that mark of 70% it's a good point of capitalization buildup and saturation. The need of an overextended capitulation is essential for a healthy capitalization.    



IT MUST BE HAPPENINZ!!! IT MUST HAS!! IT IS HAVING NEEDED!!!

^ I don't need to sound like an evil goblin from movies, but going trough a breaking point of madness is needed for greater things to be achieved.   

[a1 Hashrate LLC2022]

Nice drops

BTC down

and all major shitcoins down worse.

Do you know what the miner breakevens are at these days?

about 15c/kwh for S19pro (without mininer cost amortization).
many people have much less price of power.

Sorry, I mean the point where miners start shutting down equipment because BTC price is too low.


Big down candle in 3.....2.....1

easy to calculate from my initial numbers....at 5c/kwh, they won't until about 8.8K/btc; at 10c/kwh until 17.6K/btc.
it strictly depends on their electricity supply price.
they would also mine at a small loss, but only for a limited time.

Yeah it's that average electricity cost of all miners that I'm curious about. Thought Phil might have an idea about that, I know he is on the low end of the scale though. From those numbers looks like below 20 there might be a bit of shutting things down then.

For most small miners ie 1ph or 20 s17's they are dead without a magic power deal.

Big guys get in trouble if they buy and upgrade right before a solid crash.

New twist is the s17 is almost the exact same as the s19 in terms of power cost per th.

so if you sold off and dumped the s17's last fall and upgraded to s19's you may have a ton of debt and the gear does not use way less power.

Well all is spec  and this is a spec thread,but if we go to 15-16k and stay at that for a month we will see bankruptcies.

edit

BTW 30% of 69k =20.7k

and I say 16/69= 23% or a 77% drop

based on past history I would guess 16 k not 20.7 k

the only thing in favor of 20.7k is the s17 to s19 gear upgrade is very small.

[suchmoon]

I got liquidated again.

That'd be karma for peddling shitcoins here.

But of course you're lying again so sadly no actual karma or lesson happened.

[Biodom]

I got liquidated again.

This time, I didn’t see it happen.  I saw the BTC ticker dropping, I ran into a computer problem, and by the time I got into my account—more bitcoin gone!  Little itty-bit left.

This really leaves me kicking myself.  I had one month since my last liquidation to figure this out.  I was (and am) totally trapped financially; so, I sat like a deer in the headlights.  I should spend less time worrying about Bitcoin, less time writing about Bitcoin, and more time worrying about myself and whether I will have any Bitcoin.

Time to be a ruthless mercenary capitalist.

Oh, in case the newbies didn’t get it:  MARGIN SUCKS!!!  Six months ago, my financial position was beautiful.  I was not rich; but I had a decent position, it was consistently improving over time, and best of all—my position was stable.  If I had never touched margin, then I would now be munching popcorn, laughing at all the people who are worried, and looking for the best way to buy some cheap coins (for cash, without margin).  But I am financially dependent on assets that are, um, gone.  Whoops.

If even one naïve n00b is deterred from margin by my flouting this in public—well, I can’t say it will have been worth it.  No way.  But at least, some good will come out of this.

WTF, did I jinx myself by quoting mindrust in an earlier post?

If we really visit the $23k range, I could get liquidated again-again.  I ought to avoid repeating the same mistake.

a bit of humor in a sad situation:

https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/lxri1t/who_the_fuck_is_margin_and_why_do_they_keep/

[UnDerDoG81]

Somebody must know something we dont know. I would bet this is a small group of whales selling thousands of coins at this low price. I set a huge buy order at 20's even though I dont believe we go down that much. But then again it feels like there is no end to this dump. It's always the same routine first they attack the resistance with massive sell offs. Then they let it recover a bit and slowly grind back down to that level. Until the next massive attack on the next resistance.

[JayJuanGee]

I wonder if that chatty google AI is posting here (if it has Internet access)?
Spooky, but not unexpected (many predicted that a chatbot would be a first "real" AI).
If is true, and there is a "real" AI out there, it would be mind-boggling on many levels.

I imagine this is exactly how an AI would try and blend in.. 

Not rly. Look at JJG more closely. He is "closed into his own loop". Pay close attention to him. He is the real "bot" AI.      

A real AI, would speak very clunky. He/She/iT would speak very much, and would have a hard time trying to manifest "small"/short sentences.    

After I read your post, I ran over to the mirror, and I did not see nuttin.

Goes to show how lame is your current theory.... SavetheRF.

But what else is new?

Adjusted for the dollar’s real-world loss of value, I think that BTC must now be well below its December 2017 peak (never mind 200 WMA).  What goods and services could $19k buy in December 2017?  What goods and services can $28.5k buy now?

It's disingenuous to argue BTC price from its December 2017 top.

Get a grip.

[somac.]

Somebody must know something we dont know. I would bet this is a small group of whales selling thousands of coins at this low price. I set a huge buy order at 20's even though I dont believe we go down that much. But then again it feels like there is no end to this dump.

US open will probably give us some better direction. But I feel this is the oh shit panic from the fact that the Fed won't be pausing soon. This also guarantees much deeper recession.

Lows about to be broken, big red candle to follow no doubt.

[DaRude]

Nasdaq futures are down 2% guess we need another black Thursday for BTC to finally decouple once and for all. Bring on the pain, btc is NOT a de-risk asset

[death_wish]

Adjusted for the dollar’s real-world loss of value, I think that BTC must now be well below its December 2017 peak (never mind 200 WMA).  What goods and services could $19k buy in December 2017?  What goods and services can $28.5k buy now?

It's disingenuous to argue BTC price from its December 2017 top.

Get a grip.

Say what?  Disingenuous?  That is a rather pungent word, even if you disagree with me.  Whom do you allege I am misleading, and to what end?

There is a common belief that BTC can never dip below its previous 4-year cycle high.  Comparisons of a subsequent crash price to the previous cycle top are not my invention, as you no doubt are aware.

If such a crossing of the previous cycle top has occurred in real-value terms—not the silly mental habit of measuring all value in dollars—then that is a significant datum not only about Bitcoin, but also about the state of the financial markets generally.