Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Buy order hit, this game is too easy. Thanks for the cheap coins, paper hands.



CZ Binance
@cz_binance
During the last ATH, new people were marveling at OGs who got in early and held on. This is what it feels like the other half of the time.

Your actions now determine what you will feel like during the next ATH.

Not financial advice.
https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1535991698035294214?s=21

[somac.]

I hope he (B. Cowen) is wrong, but who knows.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qxbpmp3HF4E

Comment: why nobody take under consideration the "potential" hockey stick of adoption?

TL;DR 40K at 2024 halving. Yea, not very bullish, this one.

Right now 40k at 2024 doesn't seem too bad honestly, lol.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Right now 40k at 2024 doesn't seem too bad honestly, lol.

Probably about right, always a long grind between cycle bottoms & tops. $250,000 by end of 2025!

[somac.]

Right now 40k at 2024 doesn't seem too bad honestly, lol.

Probably about right, always a long grind between cycle bottoms & tops. $250,000 by end of 2025!

Yeah watching the video now. Never heard of the guy before but his analysis sounds good. 250k, i could handle that.

Getting excitied for all the extra BTC I'll be able to accumulate over the next 2 years.

[death_wish]

I hope he (B. Cowen) is wrong, but who knows.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qxbpmp3HF4E

Comment: why nobody take under consideration the "potential" hockey stick of adoption?

TL;DR 40K at 2024 halving. Yea, not very bullish, this one.

Right now 40k at 2024 doesn't seem too bad honestly, lol.

How did “$9k at 2020 halving” sound to you in 2018?

*shrug*  Not great, but not horrible—on the face of it.  Though this doesn’t allow for the USD inflation/loss of real value issues that I raised in some previous posts.  “$40k in real (non CPI manipulated) pre-Covid dollars in 2024” would sound spectacular to me now!  The way the dollar is going, I think that will probably mean BTC $x00k in 2024 dollars.

Buy order hit, this game is too easy. Thanks for the cheap coins, paper hands.

Congrats.

CZ Binance
@cz_binance
During the last ATH, new people were marveling at OGs who got in early and held on. This is what it feels like the other half of the time.

Your actions now determine what you will feel like during the next ATH.

Not financial advice.
https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1535991698035294214?s=21

“Marveling” aside:  The types who get jealous of early Bitcoiners who bought early and held are the same types who always think that BTC is too expensive while it’s crashing; when it’s down, they need to wait for it to go down more.  The only thing that will ever make them buy, maybe, is huge green candlesticks near the local peak.  Then, they get themselves rekt (either on margin, or by panic-selling into the dump), post sob stories on social media about how “crypto ruined my life!!!!!”, and cry for regulation to protect investors.

[discussion of price predictions]

Getting excitied for all the extra BTC I'll be able to accumulate over the next 2 years.

Never selling, even for massive profits.

+1.

Edit:  Correct bracketed description in internal quotation.

[Biodom]

Right now 40k at 2024 doesn't seem too bad honestly, lol.

Probably about right, always a long grind between cycle bottoms & tops. $250,000 by end of 2025!

remind me to sell some during 2025 at 250K, or maybe even 190K,  

[somac.]

I hope he (B. Cowen) is wrong, but who knows.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qxbpmp3HF4E

Comment: why nobody take under consideration the "potential" hockey stick of adoption?

TL;DR 40K at 2024 halving. Yea, not very bullish, this one.

Right now 40k at 2024 doesn't seem too bad honestly, lol.

How did “$9k at 2020 halving” sound to you in 2018?

*shrug*  Not great, but not horrible—on the face of it.  Though this doesn’t allow for the USD inflation/loss of real value issues that I raised in some previous posts.  “$40k in real (non CPI manipulated) pre-Covid dollars in 2024” would sound spectacular to me now!  The way the dollar is going, I think that will probably mean BTC $x00k in 2024 dollars.

If we're talking 2018 6k price I think I would have been pretty ok with it. That's because I would of been going off the 2016 halving and that turned out pretty well.

[pakhitheboss]

I remember the crash to $3k in late 2019. Half a year later and it was over $12k.

The crash happened in December 2018 and it went on till April 2019. In that period Bitcoin was trading between the range of 3k to 4k. I am not expecting such a crash but Bitcoin can hit 20k.

[death_wish]

I hope he (B. Cowen) is wrong, but who knows.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qxbpmp3HF4E

Comment: why nobody take under consideration the "potential" hockey stick of adoption?

TL;DR 40K at 2024 halving. Yea, not very bullish, this one.

Right now 40k at 2024 doesn't seem too bad honestly, lol.

How did “$9k at 2020 halving” sound to you in 2018?

*shrug*  Not great, but not horrible—on the face of it.  Though this doesn’t allow for the USD inflation/loss of real value issues that I raised in some previous posts.  “$40k in real (non CPI manipulated) pre-Covid dollars in 2024” would sound spectacular to me now!  The way the dollar is going, I think that will probably mean BTC $x00k in 2024 dollars.

If we're talking 2018 6k price I think I would have been pretty ok with it. That's because I would of been going off the 2016 halving and that turned out pretty well.

Hey, at that—newbies who are scared that we just dipped below $25k (now bouncing towards $26k), and that there is chit-chat about $22k, should remember that some people sold Bitcoin for under $220 in early 2015.  No, I did not omit any zeroes, or turn any letter-k to a zero.  I wonder if the people who sold BTC at $220 feel bad now.

[AlcoHoDL]

Had some free time today, so I decided to fire up MATLAB and try to create some BTC/USD polar (a.k.a. spiral) price chart visualizations.

Trying to catch up and not really up to posting but this is a great chart visualization you setup so had to comment.

What is the absolute minimum time frame for length to be in profit.

Obviously its in between the 2 and 4 year but i'd like to know the exact timeframe as it would be nice to see if it holds as we progress.

[...]

On to your question, which is very interesting, and is one that also came into my mind while writing the visualization code and observing the results. You're right, the profit threshold is between 2 and 4 years. This is obvious, by comparing the plots for Case 4 and Case 5. Answering the question programmatically is not very trivial, so I found the answer graphically, by observing adjacent plots (one day apart), around the time point the spiral untangles. It turns out that the profit threshold is at 1096 days. This is around 156 weeks, or exactly 3 years. The funny (and interesting) thing is that this threshold is EXACTLY 3 years to the day (1096 / 365.25 = 3.0007)! The price point at that time is just under $20k (around $19,700).

Edit: After posting this, I did some verification of the price data, just to make sure I haven't made a mistake. Everything checked out, but what I also realized was that the time the spiral untangles is on 17 December 2017—the exact time point of the 2017 ATH (for the older cycle). Hence the price of just under $20k! For the newer (outer) cycle, the time point is 1096 days (3 years) later, which is on 17 December 2020.

[...]

Maybe I am misunderstanding Hueristic's question or the point that is being made, but I was thinking that Hueristic was asking at what timeline point do the spirals never cross again because the BTC price never goes below the earlier high price, and we should be able to do a quick look at the spot price numbers on regular charts and find the various highest price points, and then look at the subsequent chart data to find at what point the BTC price gets above the previous ATH and never goes back below such earlier ATH price point, ever again.

You seemed to have considered the December 17, 2017 to December 17, 2021 timeline to represent such longest period crossing point, but it seems to me that our November 30-ish 2013 (at $1,163-ish) to April 3-ish 2017 would have been longer because in March 2017, the BTC price went below $1,163, and did not get back above $1,163 and stay above $1,163 until about April 3rd-ish (which result in a gap of right around 1,220 days rather than your result of 1,096 days)

Sorry for not being able to properly reply to your comments Jay,  just REALLY busy IRL...

What Hueristic was asking about was the minimum length of investment that has resulted in profit, regardless of when the investment was made. In other words, suppose someone simply bought some BTC at any time since 28/11/2014 (the starting point of the data set I'm using) and then waited. What is the minimum amount of time that he/she would have to wait, in order to be in profit? Notice the condition of the question: buying BTC at ANY TIME (even at the top). According to my analysis in the quoted posts above, the answer is exactly 3 years.

The reason why the spiral untangling occurs at the 2017 ATH is easy to explain. The 2017 ATH was the reason the spiral was tangled in the first place. That was an unnaturally rapid price growth, that caused the two spiral cycles to merge in between each other. So, as the spiral gets compressed by my algorithm, and the spiral cycles shift along each other, any spike present in them, such as the 2017 ATH, would necessarily be the point of untangling, as the outer spiral cycle's price gets progressively higher, until it surpasses that spike, thus untangling the entire spiral. OK, that explanation may not be very clear, but that's the best I can do right now...

As for your earlier question about why I "chose" 28/11/2014 as the starting point of my data set, well, that was the data set I managed to find by Googling, that was easy to download and in a format that could easily be imported to MATLAB for processing. So, it was purely a practical reason, with no relation to price dynamics. I did manage to find price sources going back as early as 2009, but I was not sure of their validity/reliability, so I chose the Bitstamp source I found, which started from 28/11/2014.

Edit: Typos & syntax.

[HI-TEC99]

I remember the crash to $3k in late 2019. Half a year later and it was over $12k.

The crash happened in December 2018 and it went on till April 2019. In that period Bitcoin was trading between the range of 3k to 4k. I am not expecting such a crash but Bitcoin can hit 20k.

Yes, you're right. I'm short of sleep and making mistakes. There's nothing like a huge crash to keep you up all night.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OgNasty]

Largest volume drop on the daily looking at the 30-day chart.  Pretty ugly.  Nothing compared to the capitulation we saw with Do Kwon's antics though.  Not sure if that will hold as the bottom or not, but I'd think in the short term we should be do for a bounce.  Seems like crypto is reacting to the overall economy like a speculative asset instead of a safe haven.  We've never seen Bitcoin fall below the previous cycle's high, but that certainly seems in the cards for the near future.  I hope I'm wrong.  Stay safe, don't trade on leverage.  Good luck.

[Biodom]

@JJG...sucks to be me, then, lol

[pakhitheboss]

I remember the crash to $3k in late 2019. Half a year later and it was over $12k.

The crash happened in December 2018 and it went on till April 2019. In that period Bitcoin was trading between the range of 3k to 4k. I am not expecting such a crash but Bitcoin can hit 20k.

Yes, you're right. I'm short of sleep and making mistakes. There's nothing like a huge crash to keep you up all night.

Absolutely! It is still above what it was back in those days and I feel it will never go back to that situation. I remember those dates because I joined this forum at that time.

[AnotherAlt]

The crash happened in December 2018 and it went on till April 2019. In that period Bitcoin was trading in the range of 3k to 4k. I am not expecting such a crash but Bitcoin can hit 20k.

Even though we don't expect that. Still, anything can happen. We knew it's possible most of us expected BTC over $27K for June. Even some of us expected a green candle after 9 consecutive red weeks. US inflation rate announced %8.6 while most other countries' inflation is almost similar. June is the month of the new Budget for some countries and most of the countries increasing taxes and vat. It will surely remove some liquidity from the market because some of us need to cash out to pay taxes and pay for other things too. I wouldn't be surprised if we hit 20K or go down further. While some people started panicking with their holdings, Old BTC fans like JJG, and LFC will surely take the chance and buy the dip.

[Biodom]

Hey, at that—newbies who are scared that we just dipped below $25k (now bouncing towards $26k), and that there is chit-chat about $22k, should remember that some people sold Bitcoin for under $220 in early 2015.  No, I did not omit any zeroes, or turn any letter-k to a zero.  I wonder if the people who sold BTC at $220 feel bad now.

selling at $220 was not frown at for most of 2015.
It depends what did you sell it for.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[somac.]

Hey, at that—newbies who are scared that we just dipped below $25k (now bouncing towards $26k), and that there is chit-chat about $22k, should remember that some people sold Bitcoin for under $220 in early 2015.  No, I did not omit any zeroes, or turn any letter-k to a zero.  I wonder if the people who sold BTC at $220 feel bad now.

selling at $220 was not frown at for most of 2015.
It depends what did you sell it for.

At that point most sales would of been because BTC is dead.