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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26836363 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
death_wish
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Take profit in BTC. Account PnL in BTC. BTC=money.


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June 14, 2022, 07:49:33 AM

Fact is, the bullruns getting weaker and we had no blow off top this time. People escaping into alts to make those 10x, 50x and 100x gains.

I observed same a few days ago—and that’s a good thing.  Alts get the moon-chasers and the huge pumps.  That means they take the worst pain, when it is time for a “correction”.  My most profitable alt, from which I had gained much BTC, is currently down about 89% from its 2021 high; how does BTC look now?  The real shitcoins on my watchlist are down around 96%–99% from 2021 highs.  Hahah.  No, I am not holding the bag there.

Bitcoin wont give that much of a return ever again. I mean those 20x returns (calculated from ATH to ATH). I think those crazy times are over where you can become a millionaire over night by investing 10k.

Do you suppose that everyone in the world can become a millionaire overnight by investing $10k? Roll Eyes

Maybe even the shitcoin era with 100x gains is over.

Probably not, IMO.  But just remember that the P&D shitcoin market with 100x gains also comes with 99% losses.  Trading is a zero-sum game.  Typical shitcoins are essentially Ponzis, with absolutely no value except pump-and-dump trading.  And the VCs are way ahead of you, in a rigged game that they win no matter what.

To be honest, in 2021 I switched 20% of my BTC to different alts and I doubled my invested BTC that way. Unfortunately greed kicked in and I never realized those profits. So, after a crazy 1 1/2 years of euphoria, anger and other emotional rollercoaster, I am where I started pre shitcoin investment lol. ZERO gains! Yet am glad I got out of alts before shit got crazy.

IMO, you should just stick with BTC.  Buy and hold.  If that’s not enough for you, work hard and buy more BTC.

I say that as someone who has greatly profited (in BTC) from altcoins.  If I were chasing moons like you, I would have gotten rekt!  I have enough altcoin experience to be nigh certain of what would happen, if I had the attitude that you express.  You are lucky that you broke even.
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June 14, 2022, 08:01:18 AM


Explanation
JayJuanGee
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June 14, 2022, 08:15:01 AM

Margin account liquidated only hours ago is now around 2.5% health again.  If this doesn’t let up soon, it will set some kind of record for repeated executions without time for a last meal or... ok, I am wittier when I am not in this type of a situation.

MARGIN SUCKS!!!
[...]
If we really visit the $23k range, I could get liquidated again-again.  I ought to avoid repeating the same mistake.

Slightly over $23,200, to be precise.

You must be here to cheer us up.

Each of us can say: "At least I am not as bad off as that shmuck."

I prefer the power of positive thinking:  Please feel free to feel smug that your bitcoins are IN YOUR WALLET WHERE THEY BELONG.  Just like I was smug and self-satisfied during past major crashes:  Hahah, the market can’t touch my bitcoins!  WHY THE BLOODY HELL DID I DO THIS, I DO NOT KNOW.

Why do we need to do positive thinking or to enable gamblers when that is amongst the worst of techniques, and surely I cannot really know, beyond your own representations, regarding how easy it may have been or that it still might be to potentially reasonably extract yourself from any precarious too much mgambling position that you had admittedly put your lil selfie into.  You cannot expect people on the interwebs (including yours truly) to be nice to you about those kinds of matters, even if you admit that mistakes were made.. and even seem to admit that mistakes are continued to be made.. but maybe in the end, you are largely ONLY suggesting that they are mistakes based on subsequent BTC price moves rather than the real most likely elephant in the room mistake of getting into those shitty-ass too much gambling-inclined positions in the first place.

<snip>

It is far from the first time that you have blatantly misrepresented my positions in this thread.  Stop it.

no blatant misrepresentation happened.

I am not a market-gambler, generally.  It was reasonable for you to assume that a month ago:  Most people who get wrecked on margin are handling their money that way.  Thus, if someone appears out of nowhere crying about margin wreckage, it is reasonable to presume “gambling”.  So as for a month ago.  After my discussions with you and others here, it has long ago become nothing more than a ridiculous mischaracterization of me, which you continue to repeat for no reason.

My perspective is if you are using significant portions of your BTC holdings for margin bets, then you are gambling.  I stand by my position based on what facts I have heard to date.. Of course, I have not heard all of your personal nitty gritty details (aka facts), but I heard that you were in a position to lose everything .. which I would consider to be sufficiently enough information to proclaim too much to have at stake in such a play (aka gambling)... and I would consider getting into such a situation to have been gambling.. .. whether you have a 100% track record of not gambling before that point in time seems mostly irrelevant... For example, if you say: "I spent 30 years of my life as a saint and I did not gamble one bit for those 30 years," but then "on year 31, I gambled everything and lost it all, but I still consider myself to not be a gambler".. yeah right. Roll Eyes Roll Eyes  I am not going to go along with that kind of a characterization of saintliness, if that is what you are striving to suggest.

Usually staking something less than 10% into a position might be reasonable to off-set some other position that you may have taken in some other part of your investment portfolio... but it does not sound like you are offsetting anything, and of course, I do not know all the nitty gritty details beyond that you had been poised to lose everything... which again generally I categorize as a kind of gambling.

I don’t “seem to admit that mistakes were made”—“seem”, plus passive voice.  I have clearly and consistently declared from the start that I personally made exactly the types of mistakes that I have previously warned others against.  I have sometimes also made observations about my mispredictions of BTC pricing; that does not contradict my general, very explicit repeated statements that I royally fouled this up.  A month ago, I thought that perhaps you misread—at this point, you don’t seem to admit that mistakes were made in your reading.

Seems that you are quibbling about unimportant matters.

If you read my posts as “largely ONLY suggesting that they are mistakes based on subsequent BTC price moves”, then you are blind.  Point-blank.

I invite anyone who believes I am overrreacting here to examine my post history:  To the contrary, I have had too much patience with this nonsense.  Agree with me, or disagree with me—fine.  Do not wildly misrepresent what I have said as your convenient strawman.

I believe that I have been sufficiently fair to you.
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June 14, 2022, 08:20:36 AM

I think I see what happened now.  Christina Aguilera has appropriated OUR green dildo, subverted its meaning and fucked us with it, leaving us utterly defenseless against this onslaught of red.





What a state.

Think I'd rather take my chances with Shakira or Avril Lavigne. Preferably both.



shahzadafzal
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June 14, 2022, 08:27:12 AM

I don’t know but I’m on that stage of bitcoin where “buying the dip” is no more exciting.

Reason, it’s effecting my “average buy price”… feels sad kind a seeing my average buying price goes up with every now and then so called dip. Is it really a dip when it’s still > $40k?

So finally I got a chance to slightly "improve" my average buy price by -6.7%... thank you panic sellers.
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June 14, 2022, 08:45:51 AM

The draft that I referenced earlier:

Ok?  and?  What's your point?  Another point is that trading is not a zero sum game, it can help in a lot of ways including price discovery, provides liquidity, allows for the creation of more financial tools which thereby motivates larger and larger players to get into the space.

Thanks, but I have also read the Wikipedia-level rationalization.

You couch your statement as an objective fact, whereas it is an expression of a philosophic worldview based on assumptions that most people never examine.  Proceeding to argue it would invoke critiques of capitalism—which, in turn, would undoubtedly attract the ire of someone who believes that reading Ayn Rand makes one an expert on the subject.  Besides being annoying, it would also be a waste of time when I recently declared my intent to be a “ruthless mercenary capitalist”.  As such, I will happily exploit the zero-sum game for my personal profit, in accord with its established rules.

It seems that what I said in regard to bitcoin trading not being a zero sum game is quite a bit more concrete than your response.


I am trying to describe what is... and you were trying to denigrate trading and traders... <snip>

In the portion to which you replied, I described trading.  My description was accurate, objective, and stated without any moral value judgments.  Although I have said before that I frankly have a “cordial contempt” for the whole concept, your statement about “denigrating” traders grossly misrepresents what I said here—even as you quoted it:

You seem to dislike the existence of trading within bitcoinlandia.


Profitable trading definitionally requires “buy low, sell high” (same for shorts in the reverse order).  I think that mathematically, the only way to profit from “buying low, selling high” when the price sits still is to exploit some kind of a spread—either intra-market (market maker), or inter-market (arbitrage).  Those types of traders attempt to minimize the relevance of price volatility to themselves—in the extreme case, executing (or attempting to execute) risk-free trades with no exposure to price movements.  Others need volatility, for even a unidirectional price movement cannot bring them profit:  If the price only goes forever up to infinity, or forever down until it hits zero, then the only way to profit without leaving money on the table is “buy and hold” (or short and never cover), not actively to trade.

I believe that is a concise and cogent description of how traders profit.


So?  And what is the point, then?




 Perhaps I should stop writing forum posts, and write some code. Smiley

Not a bad idea, especially if you believe that bitcoin is deficient in various ways (which seems to frequently underly several of your ongoing talking points).  Then if you can get your code merged into bitcoin, that might NOT be a bad thing.

I could say.. "I used to know him back when he was a perpetual whiner.  Now, he's a superstar, but still doesn't seem to know shit about personal risk management."    . hahahaha  

Good projects don’t need yes-men:  They need people who passionately care about the project.  Bad projects are where I’d expect to be attacked by shills for daring to suggest, earnestly wishing to help and not hurt, that the project is not already absolutely perfect in every way.  But set that aside.

If this were bitcoin-dev or Core’s GH, then it may be appropriate to say “patches welcome” in the traditional open-source way.  But this is a general Bitcoin discussion—one where developers and non-developers alike may offer opinions, wishes, and constructive criticism—one where, incidentally, I have been not-so-subtly seeking a productive meeting of the minds with anyone who would fully understand the post hereby linkedor this one.  As it stands, if you want to call me a “whiner”, I don’t mind asking how many lines of quality open-source code you have contributed to the Bitcoin ecosystem—or asking if you want to give me money, to encourage me to meet your coding expectations.

I would be disinclined to hire anyone who seems to be combating me... we might not be able to come to an agreement about what to do and if the job has been sufficiently satisfied.


I do want to go and develop a Bitcoin ecosystem project that’s on my mind.  Instead, once I am done for now with this little posting spree (more or less frustrated procrastination when I’m stuck with no good way to avoid more immediate wreckage if BTC soon dips below 200 WMA), I will probably ignore WO for awhile as I wander off to Solanaland.

Why?  A moneymaking robot that I already have partly developed is my best short-term prospect.

Don’t like it?  I will not stay poor for the sake of some misguided notion of moral purity, when I have an honest prospect to make reliable money without risk in any market condition.  Given the amount of time that I have spent on this forum, making thoughtful contributions that others appreciated while never wearing a paid signature under any account, I will damn well tell any critics here to STFU.

I guess we won't be seeing you in these here parts much longer then.

Quote from: death_wish link=topic=178336.msg60353216#msg60353216 date=1655160767
Why there?  It is the only place I know where I can make this type of a bot—other than KYC exchanges.  [i
I refuse crypto-exchange KYC, period.[/i]  And this wouldn’t work as well on a CEX, anyway.

Am I angry at what Solana’s founder said about Bitcoin, energy, and POS?  Furious.  Short-term, my best revenge is to make money on his chain, buy BTC, and store the BTC in my wallet on Bitcoin’s gloriously energetic POW blockchain.  Extra points for devising clever ways to bot money out of the SOL market and every other VC shitcoin market there, to buy BTC.  Some people work jobs they hate for corporations they despise, and buy BTC; I’ll do at least a bit better, working for myself on something which, in itself, I enjoy!

Your choice about how to spend your time.

Time to be a ruthless mercenary capitalist.

How’s that for a pragmatic, cut-and-dry business attitude towards money?

When I have attained the financially stability to self-fund spending my dev cycles purely as I please, then I can think about shifting focus.  I’d love to do a Bitcoin ecosystem project—for Core, or with something built on Bitcoin.

You have to choose for yourself. how to spend your time and energies. .and sometimes there are only so many hours in the day.. so choices need to be made.


As for my financial risk management skills—I don’t know what you got out of my posts for the past month, but you do not know me.  I did fine for years.  You would call me “overinvested”; I simply say that it shows how much I believe in BTC.  I am willing to be financially dependent on Bitcoin.  No long-term fiat savings in the bank—losing my BTC means losing my shirt—no escape hatch, if Bitcoin truly dies someday.  That is a matter of consciously choosing my life priorities, not a lack of risk management skills.  And I was doing fine.

I look at my earliest years of investing, and I see I made quite a few mistakes along the way, but I alway tried to be ongoingly investing a certain portion of my salary.. like 10% or more.. so it takes a long time to build up an investment portfolio.

Then, I did something foolish and out of character.  It spun out of control to the point where I very rapidly made every newbie mistake in the book.  Trying margin “just once” turned out for me to be like the fate of some people who try doing drugs “just once”.

Desperation to salvage the situation only made it worse.  I have no talent for placing manual trades under pressure—none! and no prior experience with that circumstance!  My usual way of managing money is to think things over, sleep it over, and then act.  I am not a gambler, your assumptions and misrepresentations to the contrary notwithstanding.

If I stick to what I’m good at, and don’t do anything else foolish and out of character, then I will again be fine—miserable for awhile, but fine.  After the hell that I have put myself through here, and the 2256 times I have berated myself “why did I do that!?”, I think that I have adequately learned my lesson about playing n00bish chicken-games with margin.

I dearly hope that my sorrows here will be a salutary lesson to others—those who don’t know better, which I did, which only makes it worse for me.

One thing is learning for yourself, and another thing is figuring out whether it is a good idea to share anything like that (or some portion of it), especially while you are going through with it.  We have a back and forth going on in this thread, so sometimes you will get responses and sometimes you will not.  Sometimes I share information about trading or my set up or changes to my set up or changes to my thinking or even mistakes that I made and how I might have ended up recovering the matter, and I have even posted about some mistakes that I made in which I had not been able to recover, and sometimes crickets.. and other times there are responses... some things I just do not want to post because I might be too confused while in the middle of the situation or there might be too many personal failures that I do not want to share, but surely at some point it could be helpful to try to flesh out the matter within a postening.  there can be risks when posting some personal circumstances, for sure.
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June 14, 2022, 08:52:18 AM

At least its stopped going down for the moment.
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June 14, 2022, 09:02:17 AM

At least its stopped going down for the moment.

I hope the bottom is in... time for 400k  Grin
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June 14, 2022, 09:03:30 AM


Explanation
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June 14, 2022, 09:05:32 AM

New balls, please.


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June 14, 2022, 09:07:54 AM

At least its stopped going down for the moment.

I hope the bottom is in... time for 400k  Grin

I think we all hope that.
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June 14, 2022, 09:10:23 AM

New balls, please.




In love with bottom...
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June 14, 2022, 09:14:11 AM

What a complete shit show that was yesterday, and that on my b-day, fuck you FTX scam exchange and paper hands.
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June 14, 2022, 09:23:39 AM
Merited by vapourminer (2), JayJuanGee (1), aesma (1)

So, BTCitcoin fell to 20K as some were hoping for. But what was the reason for that. From what I've read in https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/great-celsius-implosion-what-went-wrong-and-how-much-more-will-bitcoin-drop it is another imploding "blockchain" company.

tl;dr. Celsius may have started as an arbitrage platform giving yield for those fools lending their BTC and shitcoins. But as the arbitrage dissapeared 6 months ago, they simply became a ponzi risking their client assets by making enourmous shorts. They had more than enough BTCitcoins to stop any increase in the price, liquidating practically 100% of the longs. But their problem is that what they do is perfectly visible by everyone. People started to realize slowly they've been scammed just like bitconnect.

 Now their margin call is at 16.8k (used to be 18.3K yesterday) as seen in https://oasis.app/25977#Overview. How much collateral BTC they will be able to add is unknown. Now we have a proof that all this downard pressure in the last 6 months was caused partially by this ponzi, who could give yields in BTC only if the price was falling. So, we need to cut off the cancer ASAP. People have to withdraw their funds and invest properly in BTCitcoin. After that I'm quite confident BTCitcoin will start recovering.
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June 14, 2022, 09:37:24 AM

So, BTCitcoin fell to 20K as some were hoping for. But what was the reason for that. From what I've read in https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/great-celsius-implosion-what-went-wrong-and-how-much-more-will-bitcoin-drop it is another imploding "blockchain" company.

tl;dr. Celsius may have started as an arbitrage platform giving yield for those fools lending their BTC and shitcoins. But as the arbitrage dissapeared 6 months ago, they simply became a ponzi risking their client assets by making enourmous shorts. They had more than enough BTCitcoins to stop any increase in the price, liquidating practically 100% of the longs. But their problem is that what they do is perfectly visible by everyone. People started to realize slowly they've been scammed just like bitconnect.

 Now their margin call is at 16.8k (used to be 18.3K yesterday) as seen in https://oasis.app/25977#Overview. How much collateral BTC they will be able to add is unknown. Now we have a proof that all this downard pressure in the last 6 months was caused partially by this ponzi, who could give yields in BTC only if the price was falling. So, we need to cut off the cancer ASAP. People have to withdraw their funds and invest properly in BTCitcoin. After that I'm quite confident BTCitcoin will start recovering.

That whole company sounded dodgy from day one.

Whoever was promoting it here was probably part of it. I remember he spoke as if it was perfectly normal to give up your Bitcoin keys in exchange for small annual returns, as if he had been doing it for years.
And someone else supposedly asking "oh really, tell me more, how do I do that?". Probably the same person.

What a crock.
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June 14, 2022, 10:01:19 AM


Explanation
death_wish
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June 14, 2022, 10:07:02 AM

So, BTCitcoin fell to 20K as some were hoping for. But what was the reason for that. From what I've read in https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/great-celsius-implosion-what-went-wrong-and-how-much-more-will-bitcoin-drop it is another imploding "blockchain" company.

Link is showing 404 for me.  For archives, too:  web.archive.org gets 404.

Evidently, the data a quick web search found for my previous post on this were way off:  Is this actually the same order of magnitude size meltdown as Terra?

As of May 17, Celsius had $11.8 billion in assets, its website said, down by more than half from October, and had processed a total of $8.2 billion worth of loans.

Mashinsky, the CEO, was quoted in October last year saying Celsius had more than $25 billion in assets.
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June 14, 2022, 10:13:02 AM

Now their margin call is at 16.8k (used to be 18.3K yesterday) as seen in https://oasis.app/25977#Overview. How much collateral BTC they will be able to add is unknown. Now we have a proof that all this downard pressure in the last 6 months was caused partially by this ponzi, who could give yields in BTC only if the price was falling. So, we need to cut off the cancer ASAP. People have to withdraw their funds and invest properly in BTCitcoin. After that I'm quite confident BTCitcoin will start recovering.

I did not see a platform like this have this much of an impact on the whole market. But TBF I did not pay too much attention to them. But seems if you advertise big APYs people flock to give you their crypto



So, we need to cut off the cancer ASAP. People have to withdraw their funds and invest properly in BTCitcoin. After that I'm quite confident BTCitcoin will start recovering.

You can say that again !
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June 14, 2022, 10:34:14 AM

So, BTCitcoin fell to 20K as some were hoping for. But what was the reason for that. From what I've read in https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/great-celsius-implosion-what-went-wrong-and-how-much-more-will-bitcoin-drop it is another imploding "blockchain" company.

tl;dr. Celsius may have started as an arbitrage platform giving yield for those fools lending their BTC and shitcoins. But as the arbitrage dissapeared 6 months ago, they simply became a ponzi risking their client assets by making enourmous shorts. They had more than enough BTCitcoins to stop any increase in the price, liquidating practically 100% of the longs. But their problem is that what they do is perfectly visible by everyone. People started to realize slowly they've been scammed just like bitconnect.

 Now their margin call is at 16.8k (used to be 18.3K yesterday) as seen in https://oasis.app/25977#Overview. How much collateral BTC they will be able to add is unknown. Now we have a proof that all this downard pressure in the last 6 months was caused partially by this ponzi, who could give yields in BTC only if the price was falling. So, we need to cut off the cancer ASAP. People have to withdraw their funds and invest properly in BTCitcoin. After that I'm quite confident BTCitcoin will start recovering.
Massive liquidation if Bitcoin prices fall below $16,852.58?
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June 14, 2022, 10:58:52 AM

So, BTCitcoin fell to 20K as some were hoping for. But what was the reason for that. From what I've read in https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/great-celsius-implosion-what-went-wrong-and-how-much-more-will-bitcoin-drop it is another imploding "blockchain" company.
It went down as low as $20,800 and right now it bounced back to the $22,300 price range.
I've heard the crypto lending company and thought of investing into it, but fortunately I dodged again another bullet just like with Terra Cheesy. That's one reason only and there are many reasons as well why Bitcoin dropped as of today.

So, we need to cut off the cancer ASAP. People have to withdraw their funds and invest properly in BTCitcoin. After that I'm quite confident BTCitcoin will start recovering.
It's easy to say, but people will not invest into Bitcoin because they have a mindset of "Ohhhh it will go down even further. I will wait until it will reach the bottom, then I will invest" or a mindset of "I don't want to lose money and I believe it is still going down therefore, I will wait".
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