Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[aysg76]

$22,184 as per CMC at this time



We need to keep up the $20k barrier at any cost so make sure you invest with whatever amount you can now is the time WO and bitcoin brothers then we will have some pizza celebration afterwards smashing the bears in the face

[empowering]

I would say, bottom is in.

- Price touching 200 WMA.
- RSI Below 40.
- Hash Ribbon gave Capitulation signal
- Bitcoin Rainbow Chart says "Basically on Fire Scale!"

Why just 66% down and not 70-80% like previous cycles?
Because of COVID 2020 crash, BTC was not able to reach it's potential ATH.




P.S.: I am all-in.

I agree with the technicals, as they are not in doubt they are what they are, , but am not yet fully convinced this is the macro low...... we are for sure approaching at least decent bounce area, volatility on daily is on its way to maxing out..... but as for is this is the actual , final MACRO low of this cycle, I am not yet convinced.

Still lets see how we close the week, and after that should we rally where we end up putting in the next high and the next subsequent low.


........and even then, we could be in a huge distribution pattern and put in another mid term high 35-48K area (yes massive range), and then........ doom.



Cautious.


(another thought I have had is that, it seems to be hanging around here at these levels a little too much for my liking... I mean, how often does the market allow buyers to leisurely buy the absolute macro low, it seems a bit too relaxed....so far at least) 


 

[Khanvila78]

BREAKING: NYC Mayor urges lawmakers to veto hydrocarbon Bitcoin mining moratorium 


Source: https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1536537350205018113

[Torque]

Capitulating markets keep capitulating until enough people who swore they would never sell, no matter how low it goes, finally declare they have had enough and sell out just to stop the pain. I call this a "porcelain sell-off"

I've seen it many times over the years in many mkts





Source: https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt/status/1536351886948933635

Peter is super wise and insightful.  Particularly when he is not taking jabs at bitcoin maxis.  I get why he is annoyed by them... they are arrogant little pricks most of them.  And his understanding of markets would do them a lot of good.  But they are usually too busy "ok boomering" him to hear him. lol.

I expect this level of the 2017 peak is going to cause a LOT of capitulation, particularly for the class of 2017.  I am surprised we came this low, and I would also be surprised if we go lower... sort of.  It kind of seems like that is in the cards for sure.  I wish i had some cash.  We MAY have seen the main puking... but it does not look like it. :/

Peter thinks Bitcoin will go to $13,000, that's another $9,000 drop from here.

Not saying it won't happen. But last time in 2018/2019 when we were at ~$3000/btc, many well respected "analysts" were saying it was going to dump again to $1000.

Never happened.

Just food for thought.

[empowering]

It is but a game of probabilities....... no certainties exist.

[Torque]

Also.. as much as I wanted this to be the bottom... I sure don't think it is acting like it is.  I want it to be V shaped. It wants to be a dead cat.

Dude, you keep saying that.

Not every bottom is a V-shaped response.

2018 bottom is a perfect example.

[BobLawblaw]

[bitcoinPsycho]

Buy bye by

[suchmoon]

* death_wish strokes Bitcoin’s hair gently, gently, whilst speaking in soothing tones.

Don’t worry, Bitcoin.  We still love you.  We will always love you.  Please don’t be so sad.

I want my bitcoins back.  To have and to hold.  Forever.

Can you just stfu now? Spammed the whole thread with your stupid posts about you getting fucked for using leverages and not going the safe route with just holding BTC when you don't know shit about Trading? I am done with you and your shit.

So irritating.

 No this is good!  It's much better for people to learn from the misfortune of others than to experience it themselves.  If newbies see the pain and anguish we're going through as a result of death_wish's margin trading debacle, it might prevent us from having to live through it again.  We'll all come out of this for the better.

My thoughts exactly! I've been thinking for the last several years what is in the mind of leverage/margin traders. We know that they can't win this game, but they don't. So probably they are quite nervous, easily irritated, harboring suicidal thoughts which exacerbate each bull run, seeing how much they would have got by just hodling instead of trading. And here it is - a perfect example for that. Even his nickname shows the devastating effect of the leverage trading on the human mind. So, let him rant and spam, this is a good lesson to the newbies.

LOL jesus fucking christ, you guys really don't see how full of shit nullius is?

"Margin trader" with a hundred bucks, and repeatedly getting rekt, and schooling others how to trade.

My apologies if you're just being sarcastic, I'm too sober for that.

[cygan]

@El duderino_
this one is for you

[Gachapin]

would love to see what is happening OTC atm

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

Also.. as much as I wanted this to be the bottom... I sure don't think it is acting like it is.  I want it to be V shaped. It wants to be a dead cat.

Dude, you keep saying that.

Not every bottom is a V-shaped response.

2018 bottom is a perfect example.

a long slow drop from jan to the fall. all the time hashrate went up from jan to fall.

we are very close to that pattern at the moment.

[Gachapin]

for perspective
(0-BTC/USD, log)

[bitebits]

First time I am almost fully at ease with the situation. Adding a bit to the stash in increments, can't let a good fire sale go to waste.


https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/status/1536716402840596480

[ImThour]

I know I am all in and called BTC Bottom is in at $22k but there is another scenario in the market that can execute too. I just want to share it with everyone.

- Price takes 200 WMA Support
- Retests Resistance which was earlier support at 31k
- Falls back to long term support trendline
- Breaks Resistance Trendline for New ATH

[Wilhelm]

$23k incoming 

[JayJuanGee]

I guess, for the first time in BTC history we will touch the former cycle's ATH in the new cycle.

This will invalidate the old rule that any buyer will be in profit within less than 4 years..  

No problem.. Change it to 5 years then.  There are no guarantees regarding past performance reflecting future results.

'this time is different' they said... it might true, but not in a way we like.

So far, every times seems to have a few differences from various past patterns, even though at the same time there have tended to be a lot of eerily similarities in patterns. .. so much to be kind of amazing.. but still who should be so gullible to believe that any of it is guaranteed in any kind of exact way.. so while we are going through the pattern it is not so easy to figure out how much of a difference there is or that there is going to be by the time it all plays out and we can look at it in a kind of zoomed out ways.. maybe after 2 years of getting through a situation, we can then see from that more distanced vantage point of having ore data whether it is different, how much it is different and in what kinds of ways it happens to be different. if it ends up being different or if it kind of ends up looking the same, but just smaller in magnitude.. for example...  or longer or shorter in duration, for example.

For now it seems "they" really tamed BTC, as even the run-up this cycle was on the lower end of expectations (at least for me).

Could be.  I hate to give "credit" to "they"... but surely there are tools to manipulate and to settle outside of BTC .. and several of us know that some of that can really blow up in the faces of some of the players using those kinds of fractional reserve tools.. if the price moves against them.. and surely sometimes we already see some players get fucked because they really do not have enough BTC to cover their position.. and whether they get fucked up to the upside or to the downside, we do see examples, from time to time, in which some of their practices or risk taking in various ways end up catching up to them when the BTC price moves in a strong way in one direction or another.

Well, since BTC tends to surprise everyone, bears and bulls alike, I wouldn't count out a 4x until years end...  

I am with you there... I doubt our overshooting is anywhere close to being completed. whether we are referring to downside overshooting or upside overshooting.. The market cap of bitcoin, and the various ways in which price is discovered and/or manipulated are still relatively small... but still large enough to be dangerous with some relatively smaller players being able to manipulate it (BTC) but it could still get really far out of their control in such a way that their previous success in being able to manipulate causes them to engage in risk that ends up back firing upon them... It still could be true that some of the bigger players fucking around with Luna/Terra/Do Kwon have not completely unwrapped their lil selfies out of some of the positions that they took, and even though that is not bitcoin directly, it does have some bitcoin elements in terms of how changes in the BTC price end up affecting options.. and then figuring out who gets bailed out and who does not when shit hits the fan.. some of the BIG players likely didi get some bail out.. but the whole matter is likely not over and we cannot even be sure how much some of them got rewarded when they should have been punished.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Torque]

Keep in mind that the very top of bull markets, and the very bottom of bear markets, the narrative rhetoric is all the same:

Near the top of bull markets, the MSM and the "expert analysts" will all give you 1000+ reasons why the markets are going much higher. The uber bullishness hopium is off the charts.

And it often doesn't reach their lofty predictions.

Near the bottom of bear markets, the MSM and the "expert analysts" (often the same ones) will all give you 1000+ reasons why the markets are going much lower. The uber bearishness doom-and-gloom is off the charts.

And it often doesn't reach their lowly predictions.

This is all by design.

They want you to be "all in" at the top (because greed), and "all out" at the bottom (because fear).