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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 62

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26367673 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
philipma1957
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June 14, 2022, 03:05:57 PM

Also.. as much as I wanted this to be the bottom... I sure don't think it is acting like it is.  I want it to be V shaped. It wants to be a dead cat.

Dude, you keep saying that.

Not every bottom is a V-shaped response.

2018 bottom is a perfect example.

a long slow drop from jan to the fall. all the time hashrate went up from jan to fall.

we are very close to that pattern at the moment.
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June 14, 2022, 03:13:32 PM

for perspective
(0-BTC/USD, log)

bitebits
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June 14, 2022, 03:21:43 PM
Merited by LoyceV (2), JayJuanGee (1), dragonvslinux (1), Wilhelm (1)

First time I am almost fully at ease with the situation. Adding a bit to the stash in increments, can't let a good fire sale go to waste.


https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/status/1536716402840596480
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Bitcoin Bottom was at $15.4k


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June 14, 2022, 03:55:33 PM
Merited by STT (1)

I know I am all in and called BTC Bottom is in at $22k but there is another scenario in the market that can execute too. I just want to share it with everyone.

- Price takes 200 WMA Support
- Retests Resistance which was earlier support at 31k
- Falls back to long term support trendline
- Breaks Resistance Trendline for New ATH

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June 14, 2022, 04:00:06 PM

$23k incoming  Smiley
JayJuanGee
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June 14, 2022, 04:00:44 PM
Merited by tadamichi (1)


I guess, for the first time in BTC history we will touch the former cycle's ATH in the new cycle.

This will invalidate the old rule that any buyer will be in profit within less than 4 years..  

No problem.. Change it to 5 years then.  There are no guarantees regarding past performance reflecting future results.

'this time is different' they said... it might true, but not in a way we like.

So far, every times seems to have a few differences from various past patterns, even though at the same time there have tended to be a lot of eerily similarities in patterns. .. so much to be kind of amazing.. but still who should be so gullible to believe that any of it is guaranteed in any kind of exact way.. so while we are going through the pattern it is not so easy to figure out how much of a difference there is or that there is going to be by the time it all plays out and we can look at it in a kind of zoomed out ways.. maybe after 2 years of getting through a situation, we can then see from that more distanced vantage point of having ore data whether it is different, how much it is different and in what kinds of ways it happens to be different. if it ends up being different or if it kind of ends up looking the same, but just smaller in magnitude.. for example...  or longer or shorter in duration, for example.

For now it seems "they" really tamed BTC, as even the run-up this cycle was on the lower end of expectations (at least for me).

Could be.  I hate to give "credit" to "they"... but surely there are tools to manipulate and to settle outside of BTC .. and several of us know that some of that can really blow up in the faces of some of the players using those kinds of fractional reserve tools.. if the price moves against them.. and surely sometimes we already see some players get fucked because they really do not have enough BTC to cover their position.. and whether they get fucked up to the upside or to the downside, we do see examples, from time to time, in which some of their practices or risk taking in various ways end up catching up to them when the BTC price moves in a strong way in one direction or another.

Well, since BTC tends to surprise everyone, bears and bulls alike, I wouldn't count out a 4x until years end...   Wink

I am with you there... I doubt our overshooting is anywhere close to being completed. whether we are referring to downside overshooting or upside overshooting.. The market cap of bitcoin, and the various ways in which price is discovered and/or manipulated are still relatively small... but still large enough to be dangerous with some relatively smaller players being able to manipulate it (BTC) but it could still get really far out of their control in such a way that their previous success in being able to manipulate causes them to engage in risk that ends up back firing upon them... It still could be true that some of the bigger players fucking around with Luna/Terra/Do Kwon have not completely unwrapped their lil selfies out of some of the positions that they took, and even though that is not bitcoin directly, it does have some bitcoin elements in terms of how changes in the BTC price end up affecting options.. and then figuring out who gets bailed out and who does not when shit hits the fan.. some of the BIG players likely didi get some bail out.. but the whole matter is likely not over and we cannot even be sure how much some of them got rewarded when they should have been punished.
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June 14, 2022, 04:03:27 PM


Explanation
Torque
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June 14, 2022, 04:08:42 PM
Merited by LoyceV (6), BitcoinBunny (2), JayJuanGee (1), AlcoHoDL (1), DdmrDdmr (1), tadamichi (1)

Keep in mind that the very top of bull markets, and the very bottom of bear markets, the narrative rhetoric is all the same:

Near the top of bull markets, the MSM and the "expert analysts" will all give you 1000+ reasons why the markets are going much higher. The uber bullishness hopium is off the charts.

And it often doesn't reach their lofty predictions.

Near the bottom of bear markets, the MSM and the "expert analysts" (often the same ones) will all give you 1000+ reasons why the markets are going much lower. The uber bearishness doom-and-gloom is off the charts.

And it often doesn't reach their lowly predictions.

This is all by design.

They want you to be "all in" at the top (because greed), and "all out" at the bottom (because fear).
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June 14, 2022, 04:11:39 PM
Merited by dragonvslinux (2)

Beauty lies in the eyes of the beholder.

Market price / Realized price is finally in the accumulation zone for the first time since March 2020



https://twitter.com/wclementeiii/status/1536734585538678784?s=21
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June 14, 2022, 04:25:23 PM

Keep in mind that the very top of bull markets, and the very bottom of bear markets, the narrative rhetoric is all the same:

Near the top of bull markets, the MSM and the "expert analysts" will all give you 1000+ reasons why the markets are going much higher. The uber bullishness hopium is off the charts.

And it often doesn't reach their lofty predictions.

Near the bottom of bear markets, the MSM and the "expert analysts" (often the same ones) will all give you 1000+ reasons why the markets are going much lower. The uber bearishness doom-and-gloom is off the charts.

And it often doesn't reach their lowly predictions.

This is all by design.

They want you to be "all in" at the top (because greed), and "all out" at the bottom (because fear).

If they didn't lie to the mindless sheeple where would the profits come from for those writing the script?
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June 14, 2022, 04:27:38 PM

BREAKING: NYC Mayor urges lawmakers to veto hydrocarbon Bitcoin mining moratorium  Shocked


Source: https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1536537350205018113

Anyone mining (beyond hobby) in NY is a few planks short of a pallet anyway.
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June 14, 2022, 04:31:44 PM

Near the top of bull markets, the MSM and the "expert analysts" will all give you 1000+ reasons why the markets are going much higher. The uber bullishness hopium is off the charts.

One of the great things that modern media has done is show that "experts" presented to you through mass media are often very little different from some dude who just turned on their webcam and started talking on YouTube. And in some cases, vastly less qualified.
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June 14, 2022, 04:42:47 PM

I know I am all in and called BTC Bottom is in at $22k but there is another scenario in the market that can execute too.

Seems possible but I think the second fall would be more of an erratic spike, a panic sell event with high volatility not a reliable price hence ironically becomes an established bottom price.    So the gradient on your projection would not be regular likely sharp both downwards and then upwards, more of a spike not that regular trend over an extended period so much.  “Short term volatility is greatest at turning points and diminishes as a trend becomes established.” — Soros    Theres never any absolute rule but I agree with the idea not all prices are equally traded.
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June 14, 2022, 04:47:39 PM
Merited by BobLawblaw (2)

I'm pretty sick and tired of listening to so called experts about anything these days.

In a quick tempo experts made themselves irrelevant and look completely stupid over finance, pandemics, politics and international relations.
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June 14, 2022, 04:48:40 PM

Near the top of bull markets, the MSM and the "expert analysts" will all give you 1000+ reasons why the markets are going much higher. The uber bullishness hopium is off the charts.

One of the great things that modern media has done is show that "experts" presented to you through mass media are often very little different from some dude who just turned on their webcam and started talking on YouTube. And in some cases, vastly less qualified.

Funny and convenient how 99.9999% of all those "crypto experts" on YT are all specifically shitcoin experts. But don't seem to have any expertise or TA on the Bitcoin market?

Where did all the shitcoin shills come from? And more importantly, who is subsidizing them to hawk the shit during bull runs? Lol.
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Bounty campaign manager....


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June 14, 2022, 04:55:42 PM

BREAKING: Nearly $103 Million worth of MicroStrategy's Bitcoin has been liquidated amid massive $BTC sell-off below $21,000 support.
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June 14, 2022, 05:00:28 PM

Where did all the shitcoin shills come from? And more importantly, who is subsidizing them to hawk the shit during bull runs? Lol.

The amount they get trough referrals from exchanges is probably more, than their ponzi tokens can ever make them. This is probably most of their income, wouldn’t even call them traders anymore.
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June 14, 2022, 05:00:34 PM
Merited by AlcoHoDL (1)

I just got rekt in the wick below 200 WMA.  Compounding the injury, my desperate 0.01 BTC sell order executed just as the liquidator bot closed in to sell more.  I was left with just over 0.03 BTC in total.  I had some margin available again, so I have been trying to grab back some sats... why not, at this point.  hey, I got myself over 0.04 BTC.

I think we found the whale responsible for crashing the market.

I suppose the irony can go both ways.. and for sure it can be quite funny that some seemingly long term (and potentially experienced.. hard to know?) players might be playing around with seemingly small amounts of BTC but proclaiming that it is their whole stash.  Not trying to provide any kind of out for D_W.

By the way, I have told this story before, but close to my first two years in bitcoin, I ONLY accumulated BTC.. I did not do anything else, but I did make several transactions to either buy something or even to give some BTC to friends or family.. but I was always quite paranoid about not wanting to deplete any of my BTC stake, so if I ever sent BTC outside of my wallet, I would be so anxious to replace it in a relatively short period of time.. usually within the same week or even within a few days at most.

By the time I worked out the parameters of my sell on the way up system (which was mid-to-late 2015), I gave myself a restrictions in terms of how much of my total BTC portfolio I was allowed to play with, and I was kind of learning too.. I did not want to trade in any kind of practice mode in which "nothing was at stake" - those practice methods of learning..

I wanted to have some value at stake, so quite a few of my earliest orders would sell if the price went up $20 or something like that, and then buy back on a similar drop in price, and of course, the price in the mid-to-late 2015s continued to be around the mid-$200s... but the earliest amounts that I had authorized for myself to buy/sell would generate something less than a dollar profits or maybe sometimes more than that (subtracting out fees on both sides of the trade), but surely at the same time, I would still get excited because the profits were like free money that I could fold into my overall BTC portfolio (whether held in BTC or held in dollars).. but still small amounts, and I was derided by some people close to me for what I was doing, how much time I was spending on it creating and getting used to my system and how little were the profits. 

I kept saying that as the BTC price goes up (presuming that it is going to go up.. sooner or later), the amounts that I trade would likely go up too and the spreads and the increments should go up as well, even if I might still be trading similar amounts of BTC.. but I also had some projections that I would be authorizing myself to even be able to trade larger amounts of BTC as the price went up too.. because some of my already held BTC would go from being in the negative to being in prorits, so then I would be able to formulate my authorized trading amounts based on larger amounts of my total BTC portfolio...

So you can imagine that BTC prices now in the supra $20k prices has resulted in amounts that are more than 80x higher from using similar amounts of BTC.. so maybe instead of making $1 or $10 it ends up being $80 or $800.. Of course, my spreads have increased quite a bit since then too.. because in the very beginning, I purposefully created small spreads to make sure that I would be able to get a lot of practice.. but after having the system in place for a decently long time, not as much practice is either required or even wanted. 

Members sometimes differ in their opinions on how to go about these matters or even how to adjust their practices as the BTC price goes up.. maybe also there might be some desires to take some of the amounts off of the table because maybe there really is no felt need to put as much of the portfolio at risk.. so maybe there were period in which I might have been selling 1.5% of my BTC portfolio for every 10% that the price went up, but then at later dates, I might have gravitated more towards ONLY selling 0.5% for a 10% rise in portfolio value.. of course, the way that the sales and buy backs are structured might not fall exactly within a percentage formula but they might be ballpark ideas intended to achieve a kind of ballpark result (percentage wise).

In 2016/2017 and maybe in  2018 and later too, I recall in the earlier times, jbreher telling me that some of my laddering ideas were dumb because I would end up selling way too much and then run out of BTC.. and I said that is bullshit because I already projected it out to pretty much verify that I would never run out of BTC based on the formulas that I was attempting to follow for myself. 

I recall that at some later dates, Jbreher was posting about some of the small increments of his employment of similar laddering strategies, and I said to him .. "holy shit, haven't 'we' graduated into larger spreads and larger increments based on BTC price increases going from $250 and then being in the $2k to $20k and then back down into the $6k to $10k prices?" and he seemed to like his seemingly small spreads and small increments (relatively speaking) Sure of course, members are going to have some of their practices which sometimes seem strange or self-defeating to others .. and even relatively small, too.. but there is surely individual discretion in these kinds of matters in terms of how to do it and also how to describe the amounts at stake... whether to make the matters more concrete (and relatable) or not by describing some actual numbers.
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June 14, 2022, 05:04:43 PM

Also.. as much as I wanted this to be the bottom... I sure don't think it is acting like it is.  I want it to be V shaped. It wants to be a dead cat.

Dude, you keep saying that.

Not every bottom is a V-shaped response.

2018 bottom is a perfect example.

You are right... 2018 was more adam/eve, but even in that case it's still a nice 'V' on that Adam...  Plus I said "I want it to be V shaped" not that it always is.  What i REALLY want is to see some volume on whatever shape of recovery we see...

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June 14, 2022, 05:04:53 PM


Explanation
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