Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[death_wish]

cAPSLOCK, this reply is repurposed from a reply to you, Torque, and Hueristic that I started earlier:

You guys realize that very soon there will be ANOTHER Celsius, or Blockfi happening...

And then big well known hedge funds.

And then Medium sized banks.

And then LOTS of medium sized banks...
 
And so on?

Tick tock.

We have known it for years, but some of you are too busy watching the side shows to see it happening now.

Somewhere last month, I saw an intelligent LUNA holder compare the Terra meltdown to LTCM.

Since highly intelligent Lunatics seem rare, it is possible that I was the only person present who understood the reference—or what it meant.

Credit where due.  He pretty much anticipated all of this.  The LTCM allusion was spot-on, a big ball of predictions summarized in four letters.

(I began longer reply to posts by you/others listed above, re derivatives and some other things... cannot finish now, sorry; maybe another time.  The gist:  (a) I was not even talking about naked shorts, but rather, legit shorts of actual coins; (b) naked shorts would be impossible, if we could delete all centralized exchanges and use only trustless DEX; (c) cannot complain about derivatives, etc. in the same free market where Bitcoin can exist.  Free market is free market.  Permissionless is permissionless.  No “have cake, eat too” (similar issue as with tokens, NFTs, etc.).  I even like some derivatives—though not CME; I was puzzled during the late-2017 bull run about why so many Bitcoiners were excited about CME, gleeful over every pump caused by news about CME—wtf?—I guess it was just greed talking.)

No mindrusting event -leveraging "accidents" don't count the same as selling purely out of fear- nor enough people thinking this might be the "end" of Bitcoin... Again.

QFT, thank you.

Bitcoin will win when people sell dollars purely out of fear, thinking this might be the “end” of the U.S. Dollar.

At that point, it will be in every way the antimindrust situation.  To flee a crashing asset is sometimes smart.

[Wilhelm]

Another week filled with excitement! Lifted directly from the mouth of Big Kev "I’m excited!"

I hope everyone here has taken this opportunity to increase their stash, using whatever method available they’re comfortable with, DCA/BTD/BTFD/BTFFD or even TA (Trading Astrology  ), anything, other than Margin Gambling\Trading!

I opted for DCA to add to the stash. In fact, these buy will be allocated to my Great Grand Children. I went all the way down to $17,000.00.

Do I think the price will go sub $20K, don’t know and most importantly, I don’t care...

We’ve all been here before, we’ve all seen this same scenario, time and time again, and hopefully no one is in "Shock and Awe" of the situation.

Exactly this. I've bought some extra at 28k and I'm still very happy with that position.
Accumulate and 6 months from now we will likely be at or close to 100k so any position is a good one.

[becoin]

Which I believe is the Fed's plan all along, they need something to catastrophically break down so that they can have a convenient excuse to slam rates back to 0-1% and moar money printer go brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.

Seems they have tried everything so far. They tried worldwide pLandemic. Didn't work as expected or to the extend expected. Then they forced Russia to act militarily in Ukraine so that they can declare state of economic emergency for food and energy in the world. Didn't work as expected or to the extend expected either. Now what? Only option left is to simulate alien invasion from outer space.

[Wilhelm]

cAPSLOCK, this reply is repurposed from a reply to you, Torque, and Hueristic that I started earlier:

You guys realize that very soon there will be ANOTHER Celsius, or Blockfi happening...

And then big well known hedge funds.

And then Medium sized banks.

And then LOTS of medium sized banks...
 
And so on?

Tick tock.

We have known it for years, but some of you are too busy watching the side shows to see it happening now.

Somewhere last month, I saw an intelligent LUNA holder compare the Terra meltdown to LTCM.

Since highly intelligent Lunatics seem rare, it is possible that I was the only person present who understood the reference—or what it meant.

Credit where due.  He pretty much anticipated all of this.  The LTCM allusion was spot-on, a big ball of predictions summarized in four letters.

(I began longer reply to posts by you/others listed above, re derivatives and some other things... cannot finish now, sorry; maybe another time.  The gist:  (a) I was not even talking about naked shorts, but rather, legit shorts of actual coins; (b) naked shorts would be impossible, if we could delete all centralized exchanges and use only trustless DEX; (c) cannot complain about derivatives, etc. in the same free market where Bitcoin can exist.  Free market is free market.  Permissionless is permissionless.  No “have cake, eat too” (similar issue as with tokens, NFTs, etc.).  I even like some derivatives—though not CME; I was puzzled during the late-2017 bull run about why so many Bitcoiners were excited about CME, gleeful over every pump caused by news about CME—wtf?—I guess it was just greed talking.)

No mindrusting event -leveraging "accidents" don't count the same as selling purely out of fear- nor enough people thinking this might be the "end" of Bitcoin... Again.

QFT, thank you.

Bitcoin will win when people sell dollars purely out of fear, thinking this might be the “end” of the U.S. Dollar.

At that point, it will be in every way the antimindrust situation.  To flee a crashing asset is sometimes smart.

There USD won't crash because the world has made themselves dependent on it.
So printers go brrrrrrrrrrr and we all look the other way because we can go on with our lives...

[JayJuanGee]

Time flies.  2028 is only as far away now as 2022 was in 2016, when BTC was as low as $300.  I suffered a personal wipeout in 2016 (nothing about markets or trading!), and started the year 2017 flat broke—absolutely flat broke—much worse than now, since I have now retained some emergency backup reserves to avoid facing that situation again.  If I could go back in time to 2016 and “somehow” make sure that I had BTC saved away for 2022, then I would now already have “fuck you status” by Jay’s standards!

Just for my own attempt at clarifying a few points, I feel that I have pretty conservative ways of considering the valuation of entry-level fuck you status both because it uses the 200-week moving average at an attempt to have a conservative measurement of seemingly inevitable BTC price volatility, but also I had injected a kind of expectation that in western countries we need to achieve at least a double valuation of what would have constituted entry-level fuck you status and being a "millionaire" as compared with our understanding of the world and the retention of the value of our fiat money prior to March 2020.  

So instead of a kind of symbolic need to acquire at least $1 million in dollar value to get into entry-level fuck you status, after March 2020 it seems to have become somewhat apparent that need to get to $2 million to achieve a kind practical assurance of reaching entry-level fuck you status, and surely right now since BTC prices are largely bouncing around the 200-week moving average, as I type this post, the BTC spot price and entry-level fuck you status valuation prices happen to be largely aligned at the BTC price of $22,300-ish, which also is currently about 89.7 BTC to reach a $2 million valuation.. not an easy task to achieve such, even if acquiring the BTC in 2016.

I am not going to go balls to the walls with any kind of low ball assessment of BTC prices in 2016, and I especially believe that there is a fantasy for anyone believing that they could have bought 89.7 or more BTC at $300 in 2016.... because that price did not exist in 2016... and yeah, maybe you would like to refer to 2015.. but that would be a different story, no.. a different set of hypothetical facts, no?

Lets go further and look at the context of the first 5 months of 2016 when BTC (even up to 89.7 BTC or more) could have fairly easily and reasonable and even in conformity of any somewhat reasonable hypothetical purchased for $420-ish for a decent amount of time during all of those first 5 months of 2016, but then it got more expensive after the end of May 2016, too.

After May 2016.. you are likely not going to be able to reasonably purchase 89.7BTC or more for less than $600 for pretty much the remainder of 2016 - even though we did have a crash back down to $500 around August 2015.. but a lot of folks were pretty scared as fuck too around that time, even though the BTC price did quickly dip down to $500 in a kind of wick dip... based on the then Bitfinex "hackening" of at least 119k BTC..  

So even if we might assume an early 2016 purchasing of 89.7 BTC or more with an averaging purchasing price of $420-ish, it still would have cost right around at least $38k to acquire 89.7 BTC in those early 2016 times.

By the way your reference to BTC prices touching upon $300 in 2016, is both factually inaccurate, but also just a kind of fantasylandia thinking that very many people would be able to buy BTC at a maximum dip price and to be able to lump sum buy into such a fantasy purchase.. It's just not realistic, even though quite a few members like to engage in those kind of fantasies regarding how they would be set if they ONLY were to have bought blah blah blah quantity of BTC at the maximum dippening point.  

And, just factually, in late October and into early November 2015, BTC prices largely went shooting up from the mid-to-upper $200s to the low $500s and then corrected down to $300 briefly (as a dip) in mid-November 2015, so even though it would have been pretty easy as fuck to buy BTC in mid-to-lower $200s through most of 2015, by the time even late 2015 came, it becomes quite difficult to even presume that you would be able to get 89.7BTC or more in the lower $300s...

You would have had to have been lucky as fuck to be able to buy any meaningful quantity of BTC for less than $400 through most of those first 5 months of 2016 or even the last couple of months of 2015.. so I believe $420-ish average purchase price for BTC in early 2016 might be a reasonable hypothetical acquisition price.. but really if you ONLY were to have around $7k of fiat available at that time and presuming that you would have been able to buy at $300, that $7k-ish would only have gotten you around 16 BTC at $420-ish  prices rather than your hypothetical to buy 89.7BTC or more at $300.. which 16 BTC is quite a bit less than what would be needed for our current entry-level fuck you status.. even though 16 BTC would still be a good amount (and reasonable) to have had gotten in around early 2016 with $7k of purchasing power.

Not meaning to quibble.. but we need to attempt to be somewhat realistic both in terms of sentiment towards BTC even in the 2015 timeframe, but even going into 2016 a lot of normies who knew about BTC were pretty damned scared about BTC and its then prices, its ability to retain prices or to go up in prices, so it is not ONLY be a fantasy to consider what prices you might have been able to get into bitcoin in 2015 or 2016, but then another fantasy to presume that you would have been able to hang onto most if not all of the BTC that you had supposedly acquired during those times.. and especially accounting for the crazy-ass volatility that we have experiences between 2015/2016 and now.. especially since you have already shown that you have difficulties maintaining a consistent HODL strategy and/or any kind of meaningful disinclination to gamble with whatever possibly extra BTC that you are able to accumulate - even if we might presume that at some point you might have been able to get close to the mindrust double digits of BTC.. (10BTC), which surely it seems that you likely had not even accumulated half of that amount.. but hey, it's your story.. not mine hahahahaha...

Another factor that I frequently tend to assert is that if you want to get up to 89.7 BTC or more or even 16 BTC or more, it is quite likely that you may well need to accumulate something like 50% more than the amount that you expect to retain at a much later date if you expect to be able to maintain that quantity of BTC or higher through more than 6 years of BTC price volatility if we are referring back to the idea of accumulating and holding onto your btc between early 2016 or earlier and present.

By  the way, we do have some longer-term members in this thread who could be characterized as BTC accumulators / HODLers and who have quite likely achieved such an objective of retaining 16 BTC or more and also likely 89.7 BTC or more, and even if we likely do not know their exact quantiyy of BTC holdings particulars, through the years we have gotten some ideas about the kind of mindset, persistency and consistency that seems to be somewhat present in order to both achieve a certain quantity of BTC accumulation and to be able to maintain and retain a certain level of BTC holdings.. There is a kind of discipline and long term thinking that they have tended to exercise in terms of continuously accumulating BTC during dips and even DCAing or some other seemingly purdent and practical practices once in a while supplementing their BTC HODLer/accumulator resolve.  

For sure these kinds of BTC accumulator/HODLer folks exist within participating in this thread.. but they are still fairly rare and likely have made quite a few mistakes along the way of their bitcoin journey too.. but also have likely overaccumulated BTC at various points in times.. and not too many have equal to or more BTC than they started out with in earlier days.. but likely there are a few of those types too.. which surely takes quite a bit of work to achieve a cold storage kind of retention of BTC, rather than just saying what if I had purchased more than 89.7 BTC at $300 with the $7k-ish dollars that I would have been able to muster in 2016.. just not going to happen to do it all in one lump sum like that with the vast majority of peeps, including your own demonstrated personality whether it is OPsec camloflauged or not.  hahahaha   #nohomo.

I still had probably enough for Jay to proclaim my “fuck you status” by the end of the decade.

For sure, we have some pretty decent ideas that with the passage of time, it is going to take fewer and fewer BTC to actually reach entry-level fuck you status.

I do believe that at some point, I am going to need to revise some of my projections to make it a wee bit more sloping off rather than constant.., but at the end of this post that was last edited on December 28, 2021, you can see that I had projected about 0.7 BTC to be sufficient to reach entry-level fuck you status by the end of 2029 - and that presumes at today's dollar prices (so accounting for inflation or purchasing power of today's dollars.. so nominally we might end up getting a bit of a different story by the end of the decade.. fuck?  maybe we could be in a very serious implosion of the US Dollar by then.. 7.5 years from now.. can the dollar hang on in any kind of a meaningful credible fashion for another 7.5 years?)..  

I have been crushed down to less than 0.05 BTC.  Which is still at risk, if the bottom is not in.  This is ridiculous!

I don't know if it is ridiculous, even though I would agree with any kind of assessment that there is a certain amount of frustration that exists when these kinds of extreme DOWNity BTC price moves happen.

Of course, whether the bottom is in cannot really be felt with decent levels of confidence until we get sufficiently far away from our most recent current bottom in terms of time and/or price distance... and what is our most recent low?  $20,080 from about 20 hours ago, as I type this post.. we are still very close to that with our prices hovering just above $22k.. fuck.. frustrating.. but still I would not necessarily proclaim it as ridiculous.. even though I do understand the feeling.. so for sure a bit of a moving target in terms of when we might be able to start to exude some reasonable levels of confidence in regards to the bottom being in... .. and gosh, I am not even sure if I am going to be able to feel confidence about the "bottom possibly being in" prior to our getting back above the 100-week moving average (presuming that we are going to get back above it) which the price movement of the 100-week moving average is still continuing to gently slope UP and a little bit above $36.1k as I type this post.., and I had not realized or appreciated on a concrete level that the 100-week moving average would continue to move up when we have been so far below it for about 5 week already. fuck..  . so in the last 5 weeks, the 100-week moving average has moved up from about $35k at the beginning to $36.1k currently. wow..

[death_wish]

No mindrusting event -leveraging "accidents" don't count the same as selling purely out of fear- nor enough people thinking this might be the "end" of Bitcoin... Again.

QFT, thank you.

Bitcoin will win when people sell dollars purely out of fear, thinking this might be the “end” of the U.S. Dollar.

At that point, it will be in every way the antimindrust situation.  To flee a crashing asset is sometimes smart.

There USD won't crash because the world has made themselves dependent on it.
So printers go brrrrrrrrrrr and we all look the other way because we can go on with our lives...

That’s like saying that the Zimbabwe Dollar can’t crash because the people of Zimbabwe made themselves dependent on it.  LOLWUT?

Of course, the USD can crash.  Can and shall.  It is an arithmetical certainty that it must crash—yes, I am calling “confirmed math and science” on that one.  What nobody can predict is when or how.  “...we all [not everyone is your “we”] look the other way because we can go on with our lives” = what Americans call kicking the can down the road.  How far can that go?  Nobody knows.

I warn against the foreshortening of predictions, and generally against jumping to conclusions.  Since the 1970s at the latest, every astute observer has known that the global financial system must someday collapse.  It is based on politicians who act on time horizons of the next election, CEOs who act on time horizons of the next earnings report, and whole generations of people who bequeath the results of their own selfishness and foolishness to their own descendants:  A house of cards built on debt and duplicitous accounting tricks, as inheritance.  It is unsustainable.  However, that does not mean that anyone can accurately predict what will happen when.  The can has been kicked down the road for a long time; who knows how much longer that can continue?

Now what? Only option left is to simulate alien invasion from outer space.

To what end?  “War of the Worlds” type of panic, given that historical precedent?

Anyway, in all seriousness, I neither admit nor deny the allegation that I am a space alien.  No comment!

[savetherainforest]

HERE WE GO AGAIN !!! WHEEEEEEE!!!    

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Here is an 'interesting" suggestion re new poll on WO:

How much are you currently losing "on paper" from the ATH in your current bitcoin position (not counting the profit/loss from earlier sells)

1. less than $1K
2. between $1k and $10K
3. between $10K and 100K
3. between $100K and $1 mil
4. between $1mil and $10mil
5. between $10mil and $100mil
6. Above $100mil

Not sure if people would be honest in their answers, but am curious to see the spread anyway.
EDIT I also think that it is more interesting to measure from the ATH instead of the profit/loss since every individual buy price is different, but ATH is the same for everyone.

From my perspective such question comes off as a negative nancy bullshit idea...

Accordingly, it sucks as a question.. .not only because of its FUD exacerbating likelihood... but also tries to maximize negative ideas about BTC when there are way better ways to consider BTC, especially if we consider where BTC is at in terms of other bullshit macro-happenings and also in terms of considering more relevant factors that may well relate to being in BTC longer term rather than shorter term has a lot of uncertainties, and instead of focusing on negative bullshit, we seem to be in times in which it would be way better to focus on accumulating and DCAing even though.. or maybe strategic HODLing. and figuring out some potential buy on dip potentials.

Surely you do not believe in such DCA and buy on dip practices because you want to buy on the way up... which may or may not be a good practice when we are at and below the 200-week moving average in the past several days, if we might want to consider our having had crossed below $24k-ish to be more or less very damned close to 200-week moving average territory (at least within less than 8% of the 200-week moving average that is currently at $22.3k)

Here are the Bitcoin Holdings from Public Companies

Micro Strategy and Tesla’s  average cost are between $30000-$32000

Since when are newbies not even posting a link and still expecting a merit..?   hahahahaaha







LINK or IT DIDn't happen!!!!!!!!  hint.. hint..









 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[somac.]

I see lambie slayer is back with the bargin boyz. Well I hope he is right, he was in 2018/2019 dip down to 3k. But I feel the call might be a little early considering the global landscape right now.

I still feel things will only turn around properly when the Fed reverses and I think the catalyst for that reversal will be when Japan collapses (or hopefully before then when the signs are obvious). Make no doubt, Japan is certain to collapse if rates keep increasing. The BOJ can't keep their 10 year bonds at 0.25 without their currency being demolished and if they back out of maintaining the 0.25 ceiling, their yields will skyrocket to above 3% and the government is now bankrupt and cannot fund services without money printing.

It's also possible that inflation might turn around before then, and I'm hoping it does, because if the worlds 3rd largest economy goes down the contagion from that will be devastating.

Buy for the long-term gents, easing is assured until debt levels become sustainable.

EDIT: Another thing that might prevent collapse of Japan is if a recession becomes obvious to everyone, including the Fed. In which case that'd stop raising rates anyway, or at least pause for a bit to see what the recession does to inflation.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Cryptotourist]

I don't think there is an immediate urgency to educate people more on Bitcoin or to make far more software integrations.

That’s just your opinion mate.
In my opinion, there is an *absolute* urgency to do just that - properly educate the people around you, about what Bitcoin really is.
It all sums up to the “Bitcoin is freedom” motto, so this makes a catchy starting point.
Of course most can’t get their head round the false perception that Bitcoin is a stock, so it’s up to us to knock some sense into them.

As a friend eloquently put it: “it’s up to us, or up our ass”

Plenty has already happened and is happening.

Like what? Plenty of scam misdirections form the real thing? This is a huge attack vector on Bitcoin.
According to that logic, anyone who deals with shitcoins, is attacking his own Bitcoin interests. That probably includes every single one of us - at one point.

The cat is out of the bag and Bitcoin is going nowhere.

It seems to be going nowhere - because of all the misdirections.
But WO people know for a fact, that it is going somewhere.

Is it a surprise to see a massive decline with the upcoming recession?
Yes and no.

Just no.

Keep telling people not to invest and say it's dangerous.

Well, no. I know you don’t mean it, but it’s like telling to someone with dementia that he’s right about his illusions. You shouldn’t do that, even if it’s for the giggles, because it adds to their confusion (debatable for dementia).
Likewise, Bitcoiners should stand firmly in their beliefs, and continuously educate the sheep around them.

[JayJuanGee]

I bought a little bit over a millibitcoin at $21,589 a few hours ago.  On margin.  

It's like a drug.. the addict never learns...

One thing that we should know and appreciate about bitcoin is that it is an asymmetric bet, which largely means that you do not need to put a whole hell of a lot of value into it in order to become rich as fuck.

Of course, investing aggressively and/or assertively can have decently strong pay-offs as well... but still there is likely no short-cuts.. and margin is largely a way to just exponentially increase your odds of never really building principle or the right kind of a hodler/accumulator mindset... so I suppose if you need some money later, there might be some of us bitcoiners who might be willing to hire you to help us out with some stuff.. perhaps? If you are bitter, we might not want to give you anything that really requires much discretion though... not sure.. I am a bit reluctant to get involved with some folks who are showing even small signs of bitterness, and being smart and bitter causes me to worry, too.

Eventually, I will get around to freeing my itty-bitty dollhouse bitcoins from the encumbering debt of around $853.  Meanwhile, I can hold a dollhouse tea party.

$48.82 is now a lot of money to me.  Finding that loose change helped so much.

Yep.. you may well end up getting in such status for a decently long time.. and surely it is not easy to really get out of such a situation, and part of the problem may well be that you are too smart for your own good.

$48.82 is now a lot of money to me.  Finding that loose change helped so much.

A very sad story for how smart you sound. The moral I draw from the story, regardless of whether it is true or not, as I cannot verify it, is that one should never be overconfident of one's intelligence. Doing so can have catastrophic consequences.

That does seem as if it is likely a pretty strong conclusion that is supported by the evidence.

$48.82 is now a lot of money to me.  Finding that loose change helped so much.

A very sad story for how smart you sound. The moral I draw from the story, regardless of whether it is true or not, as I cannot verify it, is that one should never be overconfident of one's intelligence. Doing so can have catastrophic consequences.

I think these things happen because of addication. death_wish can shed some light on this I'm sure.

Frequently the person who has the issue cannot really identify  or even be in a position to solve such a problem.. at least not until sufficiently and adequately distancing themselves from the situation (and perhaps from ego too?)... It can be quite sad and even frustrating to read these kinds of accounts..

[death_wish]

Jay, thanks for the price history and reflection on various scenarios.  Following are a few clarifications of my own.  (Please see also note at end.)

[...] BTC at $300 in 2016.... because that price did not exist in 2016...

By the way your reference to BTC prices touching upon $300 in 2016, is both factually inaccurate, but also just a kind of fantasylandia thinking that very many people would be able to buy BTC at a maximum dip price and to be able to lump sum buy into such a fantasy purchase.. It's just not realistic, even though quite a few members like to engage in those kind of fantasies regarding how they would be set if they ONLY were to have bought blah blah blah quantity of BTC at the maximum dippening point.

I do not live in fantasylandia, although I sometimes err due to the lability of human recollection.  (On a general note, I have a longtime habit of ignoring the market altogether, unless I am actively buying or budgeting expenditure.  I spent most of 2021 ignoring the market; until I reviewed the market in early 2022, I knew less about 2021 Bitcoin prices than most newbies.)

For $300 in 2016, I was thinking of a specific Bitcoin discount sale event that lasted for less than four minutes on one exchange.  I have referred a few times to Slaying of the Bearwhale.  For those who caught it on Stamp, it was indeed possible to make a large lump-sum buy at what was then about a 7% discount off prices immediately before and after.  Wasn’t that in 2016?  Or was that 2015?  The video has disappeared from where I saved a copy long ago.  Unfortunately, I did not save the metadata.

That brings to mind a general point—not aimed at you; just something that irritates me:  There is no such thing as a “Bitcoin price”.  I think that most WO veterans very well understand that there are only averages of last sales or mid-market quotes from exchanges.  Nonetheless, I think it’s important in the long term to educate people about how pricing works.  Newbies tend to behave as if there is a Bitcoin retail store with a price on the shelf.  And lack of comprehension of pricing lets dollar manipulation distort the markets.

An anecdote that illustrates the true nature of market pricing:

I sometimes like trading stablecoins against each other as (usually) low-risk trades; and I have sometimes hunted for opportunities in low-liquidity markets.  It has happened that when UST was fully pegged, I bought UST for $0.95 and sold UST for $10.  The latter happened only once, with a taker that hit only 1 UST from the amount that I had offered at ask price of 10 USDC—but I can brag that I made 10x profit selling $1 for $10!  In terms of absolute profit, it was not as good as when some robot dumped $1000 on me for $950; and when I found the right opportunity, I have bought at least ten or twenty thousand dollars for between $0.96 and $0.99 each.  At all times I here describe, the major price sites (CoinGecko, CMC, et al.) listed UST as consistently priced in a narrow band around $1; and in any higher-liquidity marketplace, most or all trades executed very close to $1.

So as for pricing.

(Yes, it is ruthless mercenary capitalist trading that you believe I denigrate.  No, I do not feel in the least bit bad about having made honest trades at market.  Although I did add liquidity to a market that direly needed it, I do not pretend that I was providing some great service to humanity:  I was making money by exploiting a zero-sum game in accord with its established rules.  Whoever paid me $10 for $1 was at a $9 loss, and their loss was my gain!)

especially since you have already shown that you have difficulties maintaining a consistent HODL strategy and/or any kind of meaningful disinclination to gamble with whatever possibly extra BTC that you are able to accumulate -

Something that you missed or misunderstood from my prior posts; my posts have been sometimes voluminous, so I guessed you missed it earlier:

You said somewhere that, in effect, if I put all of my BTC at risk on margin, it shows I am a gambler.

I did not risk all of my BTC at once.

I started by risking a limited amount, which I could have afforded to lose.

But I cannot stand losing BTC.  Thus, at the moment I should have written off my losses, I instead added collateral until I was all-in.

I think I said somewhere that I wound up flailing about like an animal trapped in quicksand.

Another detail that I didn’t think was relevant before:  Even after I was “all-in”, I was not totally, catastrophically trapped until circumstances beyond my control stopped me from saving several leveraged long altcoin accounts from liquidation.  I considered those high-risk, of course; that is why I refused to cross-margin those with my BTC, even though I could have.  However, I was (too much) relying on the worst-case ability to salvage some significant equity from those accounts (here speaking of “equity” very strictly as “asset FMV minus debt”).  The liquidator bot deleted tens of thousands of dollars worth of my equity.  This had a domino effect on my overall position, and raised my risk level from “are you crazy?” to “make peace with whatever gods you may believe in: either you need a miracle, or you need to prepare to face your doom”.

What happened to me was significantly more complicated than the scenario of a typical newbie who gets wrecked buying BTC long on margin.  But then, I am not a newbie.  After making some terrifically stupid mistakes, I had enough skill managing my losses to avoid losing any BTC from January to May.  Even after my other assets were gutted, I still managed to hang onto my BTC—clinging to it—despite close shaves where I was almost liquidated.  That took some luck—and a lot of effort cleverly juggling what was left of my shrinking assets.  If I still got utterly ruined, then newbies have no hope.

Just for my own attempt at clarifying a few points, I feel that I have pretty conservative ways of considering the valuation of entry-level fuck you status both because it uses the 200-week moving average at an attempt to have a conservative measurement of seemingly inevitable BTC price volatility, but also I had injected a kind of expectation that in western countries we need to achieve at least a double valuation of what would have constituted entry-level fuck you status and being a "millionaire" as compared with our understanding of the world and the retention of the value of our fiat money prior to March 2020.  

So instead of a kind of symbolic need to acquire at least $1 million in dollar value to get into entry-level fuck you status, after March 2020 it seems to have become somewhat apparent that need to get to $2 million to achieve a kind practical assurance of reaching entry-level fuck you status, and surely right now since BTC prices are largely bouncing around the 200-week moving average, as I type this post, the BTC spot price and entry-level fuck you status valuation prices happen to be largely aligned at the BTC price of $22,300-ish, which also is currently about 89.7 BTC to reach a $2 million valuation.. not an easy task to achieve such, even if acquiring the BTC in 2016.

For a casual buyer, or someone with low income, it may not be an easy task to achieve.  Much as at this particular moment, 1 BTC is not an easy task an impossible task for me to achieve.

I do think that anyone of moderately affluent middle-class/professional-class means who is serious about Bitcoin could have acquired 100 BTC in 2016.  That is tantamount to saying that anyone of moderately affluent middle-class/professional-class means could have bought 1 BTC in 2021–2022.  If you are in a rich country, and you are at least moderately well-off, then to put less than $50k into BTC means you are not serious about it.

Not that I have anything against someone who DCAs $10/week; and for many people, that is the only way!  Please do not misinterpret me as insulting people who have little, and who scrape together holdings sat by sat.  It is admirable; and I damn well know what that type of life position is like!  But it is irrelevant, in considering someone of at least moderately affluent means who is serious about BTC.

Seriousness has varying levels, of course.  Even I wouldn’t do what CZ did when he got started—that was crazy; selling a home to buy BTC is one of the craziest-ever all-in gambles!  Though I guess that he has probably achieved “fuck you status” by now.

I still had probably enough for Jay to proclaim my “fuck you status” by the end of the decade.

For sure, we have some pretty decent ideas that with the passage of time, it is going to take fewer and fewer BTC to actually reach entry-level fuck you status.

I do believe that at some point, I am going to need to revise some of my projections to make it a wee bit more sloping off rather than constant.., but at the end of this post that was last edited on December 28, 2021, you can see that I had projected about 0.7 BTC to be sufficient to reach entry-level fuck you status by the end of 2029 - and that presumes at today's dollar prices (so accounting for inflation or purchasing power of today's dollars.. so nominally we might end up getting a bit of a different story by the end of the decade.. fuck?  maybe we could be in a very serious implosion of the US Dollar by then.. 7.5 years from now.. can the dollar hang on in any kind of a meaningful credible fashion for another 7.5 years?)..  

I had much more than 0.7 BTC.  After my first string of BTC losses wiped out most of my BTC in May, I had a little over 0.5 BTC.

I was not rich.  But from nothing, I had built up to what I would consider sort of the Bitcoiner middle-class.

I have been crushed down to less than 0.05 BTC.  Which is still at risk, if the bottom is not in.  This is ridiculous!

I don't know if it is ridiculous, even though I would agree with any kind of assessment that there is a certain amount of frustration that exists when these kinds of extreme DOWNity BTC price moves happen.

In addition to calling the market ridiculous, I also meant that it’s ridiculous for me to have less than 0.05 BTC.  Dollhouse-sized holding.  A child’s toy.  And a farce.


Jay, I intended reply to some of your earlier posts.  At this point, I am pretty much just firing at random—in this post, and in what I reply to or what I miss.  I will try to get back to your earlier replies sometime (famous last words).  Perhaps I was too harsh in some of my earlier replies to you; but I don’t think you were entirely fair to me, either.  #nohardfeelings

[Wilhelm]

No mindrusting event -leveraging "accidents" don't count the same as selling purely out of fear- nor enough people thinking this might be the "end" of Bitcoin... Again.

QFT, thank you.

Bitcoin will win when people sell dollars purely out of fear, thinking this might be the “end” of the U.S. Dollar.

At that point, it will be in every way the antimindrust situation.  To flee a crashing asset is sometimes smart.

There USD won't crash because the world has made themselves dependent on it.
So printers go brrrrrrrrrrr and we all look the other way because we can go on with our lives...

That’s like saying that the Zimbabwe Dollar can’t crash because the people of Zimbabwe made themselves dependent on it.  LOLWUT?

Of course, the USD can crash.  Can and shall.  It is an arithmetical certainty that it must crash—yes, I am calling “confirmed math and science” on that one.  What nobody can predict is when or how.  “...we all [not everyone is your “we”] look the other way because we can go on with our lives” = what Americans call kicking the can down the road.  How far can that go?  Nobody knows.

I warn against the foreshortening of predictions, and generally against jumping to conclusions.  Since the 1970s at the latest, every astute observer has known that the global financial system must someday collapse.  It is based on politicians who act on time horizons of the next election, CEOs who act on time horizons of the next earnings report, and whole generations of people who bequeath the results of their own selfishness and foolishness to their own descendants:  A house of cards built on debt and duplicitous accounting tricks, as inheritance.  It is unsustainable.  However, that does not mean that anyone can accurately predict what will happen when.  The can has been kicked down the road for a long time; who knows how much longer that can continue?

Now what? Only option left is to simulate alien invasion from outer space.

To what end?  “War of the Worlds” type of panic, given that historical precedent?

Anyway, in all seriousness, I neither admit nor deny the allegation that I am a space alien.  No comment!

The point I'm making is that the wealth of the biggest nations and economies are intertwined.
If one of these countries suffer the others will too and it's not like you can flee to a better store of value (Bitcoin would be a potential)

Zimbabwe was a small country that screwed themselves by giving rise to a dictator (and yes I've been to Zimbabwe). Everyone started using currencies like dollars which made the zimdollar worthless because the people had alternatives.

As much as I wouldn't mind the US going tits-up I know that the world is still too much invested in the US.

[savetherainforest]

So... It looks like the charts say that we have the next 36 to 48 hours of dumping for now. What do your charts say??


*edit(): So after that it also looks like it will stay around 20.000$ < > 22.000$ for about a week or two. For those ppl that are on the fence(probably) about it.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[shahzadafzal]

Explanation

Explanation

Explanation

CB is love.

Bullish.... prove me wrong.

$21696.47
$21732.38
$21781.56

[dragonvslinux]

I see lambie slayer is back with the bargin boyz. Well I hope he is right, he was in 2018/2019 dip down to 3k. But I feel the call might be a little early considering the global landscape right now.

I'm guessing this is what you're referencing?

Cycle Bottom confirmed. (June 15, 2022)

A new Baby Bull Market is born. In time it will grow to be a full grown Raging Bull.  

Bargain Boyz asked me to thank weak hands and gamblers for their sacrifice.

1 day into the new Baby Bull Market and all is well.  

I think the end of the week in a few days will provide more clarity, even if price is already above $25K by then, there would likely still be a re-test of the 200WMA next week. Likewise if price closes below $20K then we could certainly see a covid-like capitulation down to $16K, $14K, even $12K if panic really sets in. Despite how oversold price is, this only suggests a sharp rebound, not that price can't go lower temporarily prior to this. As long as price hold $20K this week, even if only by going sideways, I think some market manipulating whales will take advantage of pumping the price late Sunday evening prior to the Weekly close. In order to confirm the 200WMA as support. This would give considerable confidence to those who have been waiting on the sidelines, waiting to see if the 200WMA holds before jumping in.

That said, it's worth listening to people who got it right in 2018/2019 or previous bear markets. Especially if they haven't already made a handful of calls that the bottom is in already. I'm inclined to believe the bottom is in, more so than previously at $25K, and a "mini-bull" will commence, up to $50K then correct back down to $25K/$30K for a "mini-bear". However I was also bullish around $50K (rising 50 Week MA) late last year in the bull market. Then again at $33K when the bullish structure was maintained temporarily and price rebounded to $48K. I only really lost my bullish bias when $30K was broken, and therefore the bullish macro structure was broken, which is obviously way too late for any worthwhile selling opportunity (at least imo). But eventually, the macro market should become more predictable again imo.

I realise that a lot of other investors are probably the same however, those who invested at 4 figures in order to take profits at 6 figures, anticipating a blow off top and the usual 80%+ correction that never occurred. This is why while I believe there will be a strong rebound, with many recent sellers re-entering (as well as some newbies who realise Bitcoin isn't dead after all), followed by significant selling pressure in the $40K to $50K zone, from people like myself who failed to take enough profits, or others who entered the market in the past 18 months. Speculating that price come back down to some $25K to $30K level again before really taking off to the upside. Textbook short-term re-distribution effectively, while also acting as also long-term re-accumulation (as $40K has been roughly year already).

I could well be wrong (again), as the market has become much less predictable than previous years, and certainly I'd wait to see what price movement is like when returning to distribution zones, and how quickly it get's there more importantly, but my gut feeling is a repeat of 2019 with altcoins going sideways/lower against USD and therefore getting rekt against BTC (by another 50%+). That said, I also anticipated altcoin wreckage since May 2021 and it still hasn't really happened yet. Many shitcoins have corrected against BTC, but there still hasn't been a "Bitcoin season" since 2019. This has become considerably overdue now.