Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[cAPSLOCK]

my lowest buy this dip was at ~24.5k usd. if this is the bottom thats close enough for me. it was a buy i had set up months ago and i actually forgot about it till it triggered.

ive been on cruise control for a long time and dont try to time anything. seems to work well enough.

I am calling it bottom this week 101%. Lowest we can go in 3 days, $18k. That's it imho.
There can be a long ass wick however closing will be pretty much be up 2017 ATH levels.
Long term, very safe bet.

Just to be the contrarian... this is exactly what has happened multiple times with the 200WMA and just about ALL Bitcoinner TA folks are pointing to this as the most concrete indicator we ever use.  Members of this thread (including you) have suggested exactly this would happen since BEFORE the last ATH was reached.

We could expect in a worst case scenario we wick under the line and close the week close to it and start back up from there...

But max pain would come with a different outcome.

I think it is also interesting to think that the whole world is looking at this right now.  I would GUESS that institutional and pro investors are very close to backing up the truck here or already are.  We should see a HUGE bullish defense of ~20k.  But the people who hate bitcoin may also want to try to move the market into territory that would appear very negative.  If you want to kick it while it's down THIS would be the time to send out the FUD (ILLEGAL IN RUSSIA!!!) or try to manipulate again with leveraged positions on retail exchanges.

Bitcoin is no longer magical internet money for geeks.  It is a reliable worldwide reserve asset (in adolescence).

We have been to the 200WMA before... but never exactly like this.  Is it different this time?  I honestly hope not.  I would love to see it do what so many expect.

But so many expect it...

In other words... you seem to be saying:

it could go up, but then it might go sideways or down..

Anything can happen, and especially the thing that you do not expect to happen, but you are not going to know in advance whether the thing that you do not expect to happen happens until after it already happened.

 

If that is how you read it.  But I liked my version better.  Also, I am not really making short term price predictions.  What I am saying is we have not seen the mother of all bull markets yet.  Although we will never see % gains like were realized between 2010-2014 again we WILL see, in the overall scale of things, a massive rise in the price... some day.

Again, I think we will see the bitcoin adoption curve reflected in the price of the asset.  And that that curve will, like most others, have a middle section where adoption is happening the fastest.  I think we might even see an exaggerated adoption curve because of the nature of this technology.

So far one of the most accurate models that can be backfitted to the bitcoin price is a parabolic curved range with a decreasing slope on both the lower and upper bounds.  This makes sense for many reasons.  One of the most obvious is as Bitcoin goes up in value it takes progressively more to raise the price which is slowing both the volatility and price rise of the asset.


(credit @davethewave on twitter)

This model eventually breaks, in my opinion, as the adoption of bitcoin as a reserve asset causes the downward slope to be temporarily overcome.  This has no relevance to the short term price, or if we are near the bottom of a bear market, or what price Bitcoin will be next month.



I think we are somewhere near the blue circle as far as adoption goes...

[vapourminer]

filled with enslaved humans working in Bitcoin mines, digging for blockhashes with their bare hands

WAIT! Is this a thing? Cuz if I can dig and get BTC's... I'm tempted. What's the cost per coin? All sweat equity? Where do I sign?

well i think they more or less use sticks and scratch hash calculations into the dirt but not sure. bitcoin steampunk timeline crossed maybe.

[ImThour]

do not click, addictive af.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zci2ilhf4UE

[cAPSLOCK]

This is actually scary, also it's the first time $BTC will ever go through a recession.
According to some geeks, BTC will act as a hedge but let's see.


https://twitter.com/DrStoxx/status/1537499570212683776

Bitcoin SHOULD act as a hedge because of what it is exactly.

But that requires people to think of it more accurately.  People do not see it as a mathematically perfect asset with an exact known issuance and a hard cap.  It is hard for people to see that because it has never actually existed before.

Also, the casino nature of the "crypto" market, leads to great volitility and the association of Bitcoin as a "tech product" has it firmly in step with the Nasdaq chart at times.

One other thing.  For better or worse Satoshi invented an asset that has no controllers or mechanisms to damp the value spikes and dips.  When a poorly designed DeFi scam uses bitcoin as it's reserve asset, and eventually goes broke, then they have to sell those bitcoin into the market.  And there is no governance that can add or remove BTC from the system so the shocks are felt as they truly are, rather than having the illusion of stability.

Eventually we will see people start to use Bitcoin as a safe haven... a base asset.  Will that be during THIS crash?  Or the next one in 8-20 years (or whatever... who knows?)?  That, I think, is the tricky bit...

[Khanvila78]

JUST IN – Russian Central Bank ready to allow use of bitcoin and crypto for international payments 🇷🇺..


Source: https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1537753567917907969

[cAPSLOCK]

JUST IN – Russian Central Bank ready to allow use of bitcoin and crypto for international payments 🇷🇺..


Source: https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1537753567917907969

LOL here we go...

Wednesday  BITCOIN IS ILLEGAL IN RUSSIA
Friday  BITCOIN TO BE USED FOR INTERNATIONAL TRADE BY RUSSIA
Tuesday  BITCOIN BANNED BY WESTERN NATIONS
Thursday BITCOIN BEING ACCUMULATED IN DARK POOLS BY WESTERN NATIONS

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitcoinBunny]

For those who want to smell other people's farts a bit better on a plane this is a great invention.


Double-decker plane seat design ‘comfortable’ but ‘claustrophobic’
https://uk.yahoo.com/style/double-decker-plane-seat-design-120041925.html

[BobLawblaw]

I'm bored. Going to bed early.
Let's see what happens...

Filled @ $20,500 for another 0.012 sats worth.

Found the bottom?

[vapourminer]

but then perhaps at some point, there might be situations in which there is a feeling of having too much BTC, too..

batslap.jpg

tf?

your latest firmware is an abjact failure, tell the devs to get it right with this latest seemingly alpha quality upgrade.

just sayin.. cuz we care about you. #nohomo

[somac.]

I'm bored. Going to bed early.
Let's see what happens...

Filled @ $20,500 for another 0.012 sats worth.

Found the bottom?

That would be nice.

[somac.]

Dick head (Jay Powell) is going to be speaking in a couple minutes. Wonder what fantasy he is going to spout today. I imagine we'll see a reaction in markets, don't know in which direction.

EDIT: he talked a tiny bit about the CBDCs, Fed is definitely pursuing that.

[somac.]

Our governments are all scum

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/julian-assanges-extradition-us-formally-approved-uk-government

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[somac.]

Add another one to the list. There is too much of this crap going on right now for the price to go up.



https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1537774997590134784

[dragonvslinux]

So the SEC decision for a spot ETF seems to be on June 29. (Bitwise) and July 6. (GBTC).

Anyone thinking one of them will get approved?

And how much would BTC go up short term?

Hopefully they will all get rejected due to "volatile market" reasons, otherwise I'd only anticipate further downside with ETFs launching during a bear market. Remember CME/CBOE launch in December 2017? You can see it on the BTC1! chart. It launched at the top of the market and the market was shorted. Then remember when Bakkt futures launched in September 2019, price dumped by 50% afterwards. Possible due to the bearish setup, but still. None of these "financial instruments" are good in the short-term during a downtrend, even if beneficial in the long-run. It will only drag prices further down imo.

I'm just going on previous experiences of Futures/ETP launches, they have all had bearish consequences as investors attempt to short Bitcoin to 0.

Would't a spot ETF only buy and sell real coins?

So for shorting you'd have to own them first.. And for going long you would actually take real coins off the market.

The now approved ETFs short coins that "don't exist" and go long without taking any real coins off the market..

Seems to me a spot ETF would bring some healthy reality back to the market, no?

Not quite. As far as I understand shorting a Bitcoin ETF would involve borrowing coins that you don't have.
Source: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/163.asp

An ETF for sure could bring some genuine institutional buying pressure, but could also have the opposite effect short-term. Generally traders will short bear markets and long bull markets, rather than buying dips or trying to sell tops. So for example if an ETF launched today, given current price action, I'd say it'd be very bad. If price were to rebound to $25K, or $30K, then sure it could be good.

But an ETF is a fundamentally different instrument compared to a futures contract.

I'm aware of this, I'm just looking at the previous times major investment instruments were introduced to the Bitcoin market and both times weren't good, even if only for the short-term. I do realise it's subjective though as in 2017 it was after price had gone completely parabolic, and in 2019 it was when price was already overbought and looking like it was going to break bearish.

At least now price has already crashed by 50% in the past few months, as well as down 70% from ATH, it wouldn't be the same shorting opportunity by any means. I just hope that if these ETFs are approved, it's after a signficant rebound, rather than near the lows, so that the best opportunity for these investors would be to the upside as opposed to the downside. I think the timing is more relevant than the product in reality.

[Blue King]

SOUTH AFRICA: 65% of Bitcoin and crypto investors believe it’s the future of finance.

Link: https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1537772047916490758

[xhomerx10]

do not click, addictive af.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zci2ilhf4UE

 Not in the morning.  That's like drinking beer before noon; it's just wrong.

[Blue King]

JUST IN – Russian Central Bank ready to allow use of bitcoin and crypto for international payments 🇷🇺..


Source: https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1537753567917907969

LOL here we go...

Wednesday  BITCOIN IS ILLEGAL IN RUSSIA
Friday  BITCOIN TO BE USED FOR INTERNATIONAL TRADE BY RUSSIA
Tuesday  BITCOIN BANNED BY WESTERN NATIONS
Thursday BITCOIN BEING ACCUMULATED IN DARK POOLS BY WESTERN NATIONS

RUSSIA Gazpromneft will use flared gas for Bitcoin mining.

[BitcoinBunny]

Our governments are all scum

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/julian-assanges-extradition-us-formally-approved-uk-government

Also, if you are an American you can come over to the UK, drive on the wrong side of the road, crash into and murder a motorbike rider and fly home no questions asked.

But Russia Russia Russia eh.