Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Gachapin]

the fuck 

ETH 999$ ... AHAHAHA !!

it's still higher against BTC than 5 days ago... someone clearly doesn't like BTC

[1715187926]

1715187926

[1715187926]

1715187926

[1715187926]

1715187926

[1715187926]

1715187926

[1715187926]

1715187926

[1715187926]

1715187926

[savetherainforest]

I guess many sh!tcoins did not have their BTCiTcoin dumps priced in.

[serveria.com]

WHAT!?

As I was sitting here trying to do the community a service, I almost got liquidated for the last of my BTC.

Such a fast crash!  I saw it dip under $20k.  By the moment I got into my account, it was at 0.63% health.  I got in the 100 USDT I gathered earlier (and should have immediately added, duh).  Probably beat the liquidator bot by a few milliseconds...  It has already wicked below the liquidation price that I had before that deposit (~$19,170).

How fast can we fall another $2,000?  

Hey, look, don't trade! Just don't fucking trade. Not right now. This IS a financial advice. Don't do it. You're bad at it... 

Absolutely, I've read every one of his posts and each time I think he's a bigger idiot than the last; he never learns

Sometimes I think he's trolling us... I just can't believe someone is just so stupid or unlucky or both...  

[heslo]

WHAT!?

As I was sitting here trying to do the community a service, I almost got liquidated for the last of my BTC.

Such a fast crash!  I saw it dip under $20k.  By the moment I got into my account, it was at 0.63% health.  I got in the 100 USDT I gathered earlier (and should have immediately added, duh).  Probably beat the liquidator bot by a few milliseconds...  It has already wicked below the liquidation price that I had before that deposit (~$19,170).

How fast can we fall another $2,000?  

Hey, look, don't trade! Just don't fucking trade. Not right now. This IS a financial advice. Don't do it. You're bad at it... 

Absolutely, I've read every one of his posts and each time I think he's a bigger idiot than the last; he never learns

Sometimes I think he's trolling us... I just can't believe someone is just so stupid or unlucky or both...  

Nah, you've seen the world, people are that stupid

[somac.]

That red dildo on a weekly is ENORMOUS!    Please, can we have a dead cat bounce at least?  

There just isn't any demand. This bleeding is probably going to keep going, liquidations still to come many think.

[death_wish]

WHAT!?

As I was sitting here trying to do the community a service, I almost got liquidated for the last of my BTC.

Such a fast crash!  I saw it dip under $20k.  By the moment I got into my account, it was at 0.63% health.  I got in the 100 USDT I gathered earlier (and should have immediately added, duh).  Probably beat the liquidator bot by a few milliseconds...  It has already wicked below the liquidation price that I had before that deposit (~$19,170).

How fast can we fall another $2,000?  

Hey, look, don't trade! Just don't fucking trade. Not right now. This IS a financial advice. Don't do it. You're bad at it... 

Absolutely, I've read every one of his posts and each time I think he's a bigger idiot than the last; he never learns

You just proved that you have not read my posts.  Neither of you has!

I am not trading.  I am struggling to hang on and survive in a debt trap.  After multiple liquidations, my last shreds of BTC are still pinned down in a margin account by debt I can’t readily pay off because the damn margin account already ate most of my other assets.

“Hey, look, don't trade!” is unhelpful advice, when I am NOT TRADING.  (Not to mention, I never traded BTC—only bought, never intended to sell.)

That’s an easy mistake to make, serveria.com, if you have not read my posts.  No hard feelings.

I think that heslo must be trolling me.

[ImThour]

$19.2k... Bitcoin has yet to see a recession.
I am currently 18% down however I still have 50% of capital left to invest.


https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1538061619355430914

[savetherainforest]

the fuck 

ETH 999$ ... AHAHAHA !!

it's still higher against BTC than 5 days ago... someone clearly doesn't like BTC

Your comment will age well my friend ! When ETH GETS TO $500!!

[JayJuanGee]

Also, the casino nature of the "crypto" market, leads to great volitility and the association of Bitcoin as a "tech product" has it firmly in step with the Nasdaq chart at times.

Filed under, “Teach people that Bitcoin is not a stock—Bitcoin is nothing like a stock.”  It is a very large file.

Its no secret that bitcoin has been tracking the stock market latelty and becoming more and more intertwined with political and macroeconomic factors,So it may actually be beneficial to treat it as a "stock" as this will allow for better models and price predictions.

It is so much not-a-secret that there is even a word for it:  “Coupling”.  Please try reading the link before you offer counterarguments issues I raised, which are irrelevant to coupling.  In addition to what I said at that link, where I did not think I needed to explain why coupling hurts us:

Most Bitcoiners seem to agree that being coupled to the stock market is a bad thing.  Bitcoin is supposed to be “digital gold”—we should be coupled to the PMs, not stocks!  Bitcoin is supposed to be a hedge against inflation—but upon news of high USD inflation, idiots who treat BTC as a “stock” are fleeing Bitcoin to buy inflationary central bank altcoins.  I would even go so far to say that in the long term, coupling to stocks is a threat to Bitcoin’s economic viability.  Now, we have already been coupled to stocks for years; and it is killing us.  If we now forever lose 200 WMA as a Schelling point for a Bitcoin Bottom (as it seems we may), coupling to the stock market will be one major factor, in my opinion.

Filed under, “Teach people that Bitcoin is not a stock—Bitcoin is nothing like a stock.”  It is a very large file.

I doubt that there is any need to introduce a new term in regards to arguments about bitcoin being correlated to stocks or to any other assets.

Yeah, people make those claims about correlation all of the time, but they are not correct especially if we zoom out we can see that bitcoin is not correlated to any other assets.. however, in the short term there may well be correlation.. and also during liquidity events there also may be correlation.. because during liquidation events, even like the pretty damned BIG one of March 2020, almost every asset class crashed.. and during such crash, they were trading against the dollar.. so in the short term, the dollar was the place to flee.. but even that flee to the dollar and outrageously crazy responses of dollar printers to treat the matter as an excuse to print "infinite amounts of cash", that still might not have been the correct decision because a couple years down the road, the dollar ends up being quite devalued in comparison to hard assets, such as bitcoin..

.. so the bounce in bitcoin prices from march 2020 could be considered in conservative ways as 6x or 7x and to start from a base of $10k-ish... but if we measure from the bottom of that liquidation event that went down to $3,850, the bounce ended up being close to 18x.. The overwhelming majority of assets, whether we are referring to various kinds of stocks (nasdaq blah blah blah), property, commodities, PMs such as gold did not experience even close to as much of a bounce as bitcoin... so it should be pretty obvious that claiming correlation does not end up being so much a strong case - except if such claims are made in regards to some of the short-term price moves... and so even now, bitcoin is experiencing some extreme correcting .. and there may well be some very passionate desires to drive it down as far as possible and as low as possible.. but also taking advantage of some very loosey goosey players that have been pretty sloppy with how they had been connecting some of their scammy interest bearing products to bitcoin - attract folks to their Ponsi scheme like scams with made up yield that they would not be able to sustain if the BTC price ends up correcting beyond expectations - which then fuels and motivates ongoing pushes to drive BTC's price lower in order to flesh out more and more and more of these players who had been collateralizing their otherwise unsustainable products with BTC.

So right now whether we are still experiencing outrageous 24/7 market pressures to continue to hunt for various weak spots in which to suss out additional smoke and mirror products, we sometimes might end up loosing our confidence in bitcoin itself as an asset or even wondering how far it will be possible to continue to push the BTC price down..   

It seems to me that we are convoluting words, if we are mixing up personal practices to figure which assets that they should invest into, and normies are weighing  their investment allocations, so in that regard, they are comparing and contrasting some ideas of bitcoin's current price and expected value - like they would consider a stock - but of course, the fundamentals of bitcoin remain different, and normies won't always know how to value bitcoin - but it still does not hurt if they are attempting to figure out bitcoin's performance in comparison or even coupling in their mind with other kinds of investments that they may well have whether various kinds of stocks, or property or other places that they might believe plausible to put some of their money - especially during times like this. .and trying to figure out if HODLing through the matter might be the right course - and whether the concept of HODL may or may not apply as much to other kinds of assets - even when bitcoin may well be one of the most liquid assets that they own.. so there may well be temptations to do something with what you have, which may well end up being the wrong move because even if we are in the midst of all kinds of downity price pressures, we can never really have certainty regarding how far down it will go and/or how long it will last... even though sometimes in times like this when we see so many defective products that were out there claiming to have "yielding" products, downward pressures on BTC can well end up fleshing out the ones that were not as backed up as they claimed to be.. or they were too tied to BTC prices going up.

And, at some point when the BTC price resumes to going UPpity, there may well end up being a whole hell of a lot of fuel from those who had been betting and pushing for more and more and more downity.. so then when the BTC price resumes up, we find out that they were using BTC that they did not have to push the BTC price down, so then if we end up getting large BTC price increases, those ones end up getting reckt, too.

and all my rambling started out by my attempting to clarify that we should not be mixing up coupling and correlation because it likely causes confusion for some of the maybe not quite so coherent reasons that I attempted to outline above.

[savetherainforest]

^


JJG!         .. You probably wrote that message for 1 hour and 30 minutes! And you didn't see the price go down!

[somac.]

$19.2k... Bitcoin has yet to see a recession.
I am currently 18% down however I still have 50% of capital left to invest.


https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1538061619355430914

And at what price do you invest it?

What I'm wondering really is at what point does this thing get bought at by those with free cash (if there is any). I know you don't know that so feel free to ignore.

Looking at the price all I'm seeing is limit orders, there are no market buys any more. Been this way for a while now. Plenty of market sells though.

These 24/7 markets have their downsides. I hate watching this crap at the start of a weekend.

[ivomm]

I've just bought 0.27BTC.  Thanks weak hands and thanks Revolut for working 24/7

[death_wish]

That red dildo on a weekly is ENORMOUS!    Please, can we have a dead cat bounce at least?  

There just isn't any demand. This bleeding is probably going to keep going, liquidations still to come many think.

That is an even weirder looking chart movement than I recall from the initial crash May 5... or the very rapid crash June 13.  It also reminds me of the incremental $500–$1000 down movements between about May 5–10 or so (IIRC), as I have mentioned to you—except that now, $1000 is 5%... huge.

It looks to me like a high-capital sophisticated player has developed a systematic way to punch downward through support, and is applying it to break Bitcoin’s back.  In early May, I questioned myself.  A few days ago, I hesitated.  Now, I am settling on “unproved, but highly probable”.


RIP 200 WMA.  Bye-bye Schelling point for a Bitcoin Bottom.

That is what worries me, NOT the current price in itself.  I am thinking that this is to equalize Bitcoin’s status with POS altcoins.  Altcoins have no bottom.  Buy alts, even relatively good ones, and you can just watch them drop as you think to yourself, “Oh, dear.  This thing has no bottom.  Nothing like Bitcoin’s 200 WMA line.”

That is what concerns me for political reasons and Bitcoin idealism, not mere market speculation.  They are trying to break the Honey Badger:  For it is a challenge, a threat to financial corruption.  This was my realistic worry, thinly veiled as dystopian fiction to avoid FUDding Bitcoin or coming off as a bear.

[serveria.com]

We're now ~72.5% down from ATH. 

[Gachapin]

We had a weak cycle top and now this ridiculous low (with probably more pain and bore to come)..

now, there will be some real bearish sentiment...

Out of disappointment and lack of faith in Bitcoin's strength probably more people will sell into the next run-up than before ...causing even more resistance to the upside.

Seems that's one aspect of how "they" tame Bitcoin.

The continuous refusal of an US spot ETF just fits into this whole shit story very well...

[Franctoshi]

$30k support to break pretty soon, I don't wish BTC to go below 200 WMA anytime soon.
There will be a short pump towards $38k before going back to under $30k.

What my exactly expected 2nd target for this dumb to take place is ($28k-$25k), and  ($30k) already played out before we get the final draw down. If the institutional and wyckoff schematic accumulation pattern should play in this cycle, I think most retail traders would think that $28k-$25k is indeed going to be the bottom, and eventually there comes the smart money guys to grab all those liquidity and we get a nice retest of the previous ATH.

so the wyckoff schematic accumulation pattern is going to be a 3 legs down from here in View,
1. One already happened the 30k) we just dumb down to
2. Second Would be ($28k-$25k) before we finally get an
3. Unbelievable Smart money concept crush down to ($20k-$19.45k).
These are very critical level to watch in my View.

My Price prediction back then for Bitcoin has perfectly played out, most people thought it was not going to happen.
 just saw this morning the price has officially hit 19k.level
 unbelievable right?

[savetherainforest]

I've just bought 0.27BTC.  Thanks weak hands and thanks Revolut for working 24/7

Not your keys, not your coins.    


*edit(): You should be holding until you find stable prices for things to go your way. Or find an ATM with a 10% free (or lower).   

[DaRude]

Well, that's one way to decouple. Someone is liquidating big time

[Gachapin]

the fuck 

ETH 999$ ... AHAHAHA !!

it's still higher against BTC than 5 days ago... someone clearly doesn't like BTC

Your comment will age well my friend ! When ETH GETS TO $500!!

As you might have read out of my posts, I hate mETH and their shitcoin circus..
But BTC has far more enemies...

[somac.]

That red dildo on a weekly is ENORMOUS!    Please, can we have a dead cat bounce at least?  

There just isn't any demand. This bleeding is probably going to keep going, liquidations still to come many think.

That is an even weirder looking chart movement than I recall from the initial crash May 5... or the very rapid crash June 13.  It also reminds me of the incremental $500–$1000 down movements between about May 5–10 or so (IIRC), as I have mentioned to you—except that now, $1000 is 5%... huge.

It looks to me like a high-capital sophisticated player has developed a systematic way to punch downward through support, and is applying it to break Bitcoin’s back.  In early May, I questioned myself.  A few days ago, I hesitated.  Now, I am settling on “unproved, but highly probable”.


RIP 200 WMA.  Bye-bye Schelling point for a Bitcoin Bottom.

That is what worries me, NOT the current price in itself.  I am thinking that this is to equalize Bitcoin’s status with POS altcoins.  Altcoins have no bottom.  Buy alts, even relatively good ones, and you can just watch them drop as you think to yourself, “Oh, dear.  This thing has no bottom.  Nothing like Bitcoin’s 200 WMA line.”

That is what concerns me for political reasons and Bitcoin idealism, not mere market speculation.  They are trying to break the Honey Badger:  For it is a challenge, a threat to financial corruption.  This was my realistic worry, thinly veiled as dystopian fiction to avoid FUDding Bitcoin or coming off as a bear.

I don't doubt your theory.