Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Ludmilla_rose1995]

https://twitter.com/LinaSeiche/status/1540692232679743490?cxt=HHwWhICj0Ybb0eEqAAAA

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[death_wish]

The Richest Bitcoin Whale in Existence Now Has Over $2,763,000,000 in BTC After Massive Series of Transactions

The world’s largest non-exchange Bitcoin whale now holds over $2 billion worth of BTC after a string of massive transactions earlier this month.

[...] According to crypto data platform BitInfoCharts, [...]
[...] According to crypto analytics firm Santiment, [...]

There is no way to know this for certain.  “News” sources which carry such headlines do not know how Bitcoin works.  Either that, or they have a bridge to sell you:  “Crypto data”, “crypto analytics” (an evil business that should not exist), etc.  The same as for stats from Glassnode, et al. about how many coins are “short-term” versus “long-term” holdings.  They are pulling those numbers out of their arse.

I know that if I had a large amount of BTC, my holding would be split between numerous wallets, in ways that “crypto analytics” (i.e., spying) would be unable to link.  I would want to fly under the radar—not to show up on “rich lists”.  Are all Bitcoin whales are too dumb to do that?

How many whales are ghostwhales?  (To coin a new term here.)  The question cannot be answered.  Ghostwhales are invisible; that is the point.

I also know damn well that when I held coins for years, some of my coins tended to show up in the “short-term holder” category.  For privacy reasons, I sometimes moved my own coins between my own wallets in ways which would look very much like a transfer of ownership.  I don’t mean simple sweep/send, which analytics will see as staying within the same wallet.  I mean intentionally breaking the heuristics used by blockchain spies to assign coins to “wallets”.

Many Bitcoiners who have much larger holdings are concerned about privacy.  Some of them probably have similar practices.  Accordingly, “LTH” must be always undercounted by a proportion which cannot even be guessed.  People who proclaim certain knowledge of “STH” versus “LTH” amounts do not know how Bitcoin works.

(This is a long-time pet peeve of mine—why I tend to ignore people who obsess over STH/LTH stats.  Last week, I saw o_e_l_e_o mention this point in a development thread; I realized I should be more outspoken about it.)

You're busy selling and they are busy buying your BTC.
Follow the activities of the smart money guys.
Be wise the Storm is gonna be over one day.

About a week ago, when Bitcoin was struggling around $18k–$19k, I showed my posts here to the shark who told me to deleverage at $35k.  (Who also freaking told me not to rely on 200 WMA as a bottom—LOL.)  He took a glance through WO, and told me to stop wasting my time hanging out with the weak hands here.  “Why are people so scared?  This is fine.  The price is fine.  The market is fine.  Bitcoin is fine.  Stop worrying.”

Some people will never sell in bear markets.

[ivomm]

Goldman Sachs Leading Investor Group to Buy Celsius Assets: Sources
The Wall Street firm is seeking $2 billion in commitments from investors to buy distressed assets at steep discounts if the crypto lender goes bankrupt.
https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/06/24/goldman-sachs-raising-funds-to-buy-celsius-assets-sources/

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hamza2424]

we have 2 types of BITCOIN investors

loser = sell when bearish

winner = buy when bearish

I think i can make it more Appropriate..

Loser = Cash Out profit on the Buying Spot after Market starts recovery
Well a better Start is DCA based on your affordable condition if you are employee and you can Spend 100$ a month or any random amount them start DCA with Monthly basis and if you are good in Bussniess and can afford 10$ or 50$ Random Number you can then make DCA on the daily basis then.



You and Me after 5 Years in same Forum on Same Thread if we lived. Hows ongoing buddy Whats your Worth you Ask to my Assistant 😁😁😁

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Observing $21,023.

Not much to discuss, no meaningful bounce yet. I’m expecting lower lows this year to be honest. After every Winter though, comes Spring. We’ll ride it out, moon in 2025. Enjoy life & stack as much as you can. Don’t get too upset about short term price movements. 1BTC = 1BTC, if you have a time preference longer than 2 years you will be fine.

[CLS63]

Observing $21,023.

Not much to discuss, no meaningful bounce yet. I’m expecting lower lows this year to be honest. After every Winter though, comes Spring. We’ll ride it out, moon in 2025. Enjoy life & stack as much as you can. Don’t get too upset about short term price movements. 1BTC = 1BTC, if you have a time preference longer than 2 years you will be fine.

Frankly, I think that this kind of times are wonderful times for buying Bitcoin and accumulating it. I have already started to buy Bitcoin gradually. I still don't understand why people are in panic now. You must already run the risk of taking some risks if you are investing into cryptocurrencies.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Khanvila78]

Fighting has continued in various parts of Ukraine. Ukrainian troops are fighting to liberate some cities from Russian occupation, while Russian troops have entered a town to the north.

[Rockstarguy]

Observing $21,023.

Not much to discuss, no meaningful bounce yet. I’m expecting lower lows this year to be honest. After every Winter though, comes Spring. We’ll ride it out, moon in 2025. Enjoy life & stack as much as you can. Don’t get too upset about short term price movements. 1BTC = 1BTC, if you have a time preference longer than 2 years you will be fine.

Frankly, I think that this kind of times are wonderful times for buying Bitcoin and accumulating it. I have already started to buy Bitcoin gradually. I still don't understand why people are in panic now. You must already run the risk of taking some risks if you are investing into cryptocurrencies.

People understand that this is the best time to buy bitcoin but are not ready to be patient with bitcoin,  they are just greedy , only expecting profit from bitcoin at all time, forgetting that bitcoin is volatile and when the price go down low the only option is to have patience to wait when the market add values .

[Khanvila78]

JUST IN: Bitcoin miners have borrowed  $4B against their equipment - Bloomberg 😳

Bitcoin will get to $250K “by late 2022 or early 2023" says Tim Draper.

Source:https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1540723317790937090

[LFC_Bitcoin]

JUST IN: Bitcoin miners have borrowed  $4B against their equipment - Bloomberg 😳

Bitcoin will get to $250K “by late 2022 or early 2023" says Tim Draper.

Source:https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1540723317790937090

Late 2025

[JayJuanGee]

The Richest Bitcoin Whale in Existence Now Has Over $2,763,000,000 in BTC After Massive Series of Transactions

The world’s largest non-exchange Bitcoin whale now holds over $2 billion worth of BTC after a string of massive transactions earlier this month.

According to crypto data platform BitInfoCharts, the whale has added 2,554 Bitcoin in a series of transactions since June 14th.
The richest non-exchange Bitcoin whale currently holds a total of 130,227 BTC or 0.68% of the current supply. It is the world’s third-largest Bitcoin whale after the wallets belonging to Binance and Bitfinex crypto exchanges.

According to crypto analytics firm Santiment, the crypto market downturn has triggered an increase in the number of Bitcoin whales.
https://dailyhodl.com/2022/06/25/the-richest-bitcoin-whale-in-existence-now-has-over-2763000000-in-btc-after-massive-series-of-transactions/amp/

You're busy selling and they are busy buying your BTC.
Follow the activities of the smart money guys.
Be wise the Storm is gonna be over one day.

I have a hard time believing that anyone who holds/controls large sums of bitcoin are going to keep it in places that can be identified as being owned by one person or entity (unless they are a public company or a government that has to make those kinds of disclosures).  Private individuals or even private institutions should be disincentivized in being known for controlling large amounts of bitcoin.  So even with something like 130k BTC, there might be some preferences to not keep more than a certain amount in any one place.. maybe with a person or an entity with something like 130k BTC, something less than 10k in any one location?  Sure, there might be some folks who want to keep it all in one location, but that surely seems risky for a variety of reasons...

By the way, I could understand/appreciate that if there is a private trust or some kind of a joint ownership, then there might be some need to create some traceability regarding sources, so the other joint owners know about fairness and accountability.. so maybe i am arguing against myself to consider that there could be some cases in which accountability or tracking of ownership is preferred.  Oh, as I am typing I just considered another case of inheritance, so a private individual or private entity might want to show ownership so that if anything ever happened, then the heirs (or the beneficiaries) will know how much BTC is out there and the various locations to find the BTC.  

Anyhow, I am having some difficulties appreciating very many situations in which there would be incentives to have very large amounts of wealth to be traceable to private entities.  I speculate that many of the BIGGEST of the bitcoiners are going to exercise a sufficient amount of camouflaging of their coins, and sure they might disclose to a few others, but not really allow for situations (like holding al the coins in one place) to be part of their regular or best practices.. so maybe my conclusion is that the 130k BTC may well be of some kind of public or quasi-public entity but the author of the article just does not know and might even be fishing for crowd sourcing.. which we are helping when we speculate in connection with such article..

Edit:  D_W made similar points (with examples) in his earlier post, too.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

JUST IN: Bitcoin miners have borrowed  $4B against their equipment - Bloomberg 😳

Bitcoin will get to $250K “by late 2022 or early 2023" says Tim Draper.

Source:https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1540723317790937090

Late 2025

Maybe, but i feel like you can only predict the price, but not the time.
$250K...very possible. Time? Who knows.

However, I saw a strong argument from B. Cowen that most likely price at the halving in 2024 would be around $40K.
Is it too low? Maybe, but entirely within the historical precedent after a bear market.
If around 40K at halving, then 250K (or 150-300K) in 2025 is doable.
In 2020 bitcoin traded around 9K at the halving and ATH was 67.6K (on the daily close basis), so it is a 7.5X move.
40KX7.5=300K. Subtract for lower bump (diminishing returns) and 150K-300K should be attainable.

BTW, during the current stage (bottoming), the most bounce I can see is around 47K (similar to the premature mini bull in 2019).

[fillippone]

Fidelity released a very simple “Valuing bitcoin” paper.




They get to some decent hopium numbers

(@JuanJeeGee  can click
here directly, avoiding link to a Link)

[death_wish]

The Richest Bitcoin Whale in Existence Now Has Over $2,763,000,000 in BTC After Massive Series of Transactions
[...]

There is no way to know this for certain. [...]

I know that if I had a large amount of BTC, my holding would be split between numerous wallets, in ways that “crypto analytics” (i.e., spying) would be unable to link.  I would want to fly under the radar—not to show up on “rich lists”.  Are all Bitcoin whales are too dumb to do that?

How many whales are ghostwhales?  (To coin a new term here.)  The question cannot be answered.  Ghostwhales are invisible; that is the point.

The Richest Bitcoin Whale in Existence Now Has Over $2,763,000,000 in BTC After Massive Series of Transactions [...]

I have a hard time believing that anyone who holds/controls large sums of bitcoin are going to keep it in places that can be identified as being owned by one person or entity (unless they are a public company or a government that has to make those kinds of disclosures).  Private individuals or even private institutions should be disincentivized in being known for controlling large amounts of bitcoin.  So even with something like 130k BTC, there might be some preferences to not keep more than a certain amount in any one place.. maybe less than 10k in anyone location?

By the way, I could understand/appreciate that if there is a private trust or some kind of a joint ownership, then there might be some need to create some traceability regarding sources, so the other joint owners know about fairness and accountability.. so maybe i am arguing against myself to consider that there could be some cases in which accountability or tracking of ownership is preferred.  Oh, as I am typing I just considered another case of inheritance, so a private individual or private entity might want to show ownership so that if anything ever happened, then the heirs (or the beneficiaries) will know how much BTC is out there and the various locations to find the BTC.

That is no reason to make all of the information public!  BIP 32 explicitly contemplates use cases where a party may have a legitimate need to watch all of the transactions in what, to the public, would appear to be separate wallets.  For example:

Use cases

[...]

Audits: N(m/*)

In case an auditor needs full access to the list of incoming and outgoing payments, one can share all account public extended keys. This will allow the auditor to see all transactions from and to the wallet, in all accounts, but not a single secret key.

This can be done with an account (“wallet”), or with a whole hierarchy of accounts (“wallets”)—to support the complex uses cases that are often needed by sophisticated large HODLers.

Beyond that:  Privacy coins that reveal absolutely zero ownership information on-chain have developed a concept called “selective disclosure”.  They have what are called “view keys”, in contradistinction to “spend keys”; the view keys serve a purpose similar to disclosing the extended public key for a BIP 32 account hierarchy.  View keys facilitate full auditing and accountability.  In “selective disclosure”, information is disclosed on a need-to-know-basis—to those who really do need to know, not by publishing it to the whole world where any anonymous snoop can examine it.

If/when Bitcoin gets real privacy, I expect that it will also embrace “selective disclosure”.  That would preserve irrevocable, undeniable, irrefutable blockchain information for legitimate use cases—while locking out the prying eyes of hackers, cyberstalkers, armed robbers, kidnappers seeking ransom, and commercial espionage that seeks to infer competitive business plans from financial transaction data.

That last is a huge impediment to big-business Bitcoin adoption.  Most retail-tier HODLers are blissfully ignorant about this, but some leading Bitcoiners are well-informed about the problem.  I recall that Greg Maxwell mentioned this, in some discussion of why he invented Confidential Transactions.  Bitcoin ultra-maximalist company Blockstream uses CT in its Liquid sidechain, for the purpose of giving big businesses and institutional investors at least a modicum of privacy.  I wouldn’t be surprised if some billionaires use Liquid and similar tools to break up the public view of their whale-HODLings.  Meanwhile, moronic “crypto journalists” run headlines about “the biggest whale!!” to impress the n00bs.  SAD.

Edit:  D_W made similar points (with examples) in his earlier post, too.

Edit:  Jay made that edit while I was writing, editing, pulling up links/quotes, searching fruitlessly for the Gmax quote that I distinctly recall from years ago, etc.  Thanks.

[death_wish]

About a week ago, when Bitcoin was struggling around $18k–$19k, I showed my posts here to the shark who told me to deleverage at $35k.  (Who also freaking told me not to rely on 200 WMA as a bottom—LOL.)  He took a glance through WO, and told me to stop wasting my time hanging out with the weak hands here.  “Why are people so scared?  This is fine.  The price is fine.  The market is fine.  Bitcoin is fine.  Stop worrying.”

Don’t get too upset about short term price movements. 1BTC = 1BTC, if you have a time preference longer than 2 years you will be fine.

That’s the spirit!  Bitcoin is fine.  Only weak hands and leveraged longs will wind up in a world of hurt.

[JayJuanGee]

we have 2 types of BITCOIN investors

loser = sell when bearish

winner = buy when bearish

I think i can make it more Appropriate..

Loser = Cash Out profit on the Buying Spot after Market starts recovery
Well a better Start is DCA based on your affordable condition if you are employee and you can Spend 100$ a month or any random amount them start DCA with Monthly basis and if you are good in Bussniess and can afford 10$ or 50$ Random Number you can then make DCA on the daily basis then.



You and Me after 5 Years in same Forum on Same Thread if we lived. Hows ongoing buddy Whats your Worth you Ask to my Assistant 😁😁😁

If I properly understand what you are saying, that is not a bad point - not that we need to compete with each other in terms of "which one of us gets richer" because from my point of view, I think that one of the major points continues to be the extent to which anyone of us is able to apply his/her BTC strategies in such a way that complements his/her own individual circumstances, which might not necessarily result in higher performance down the road in regards to one indicator (how much richie did I get, for example) but instead just providing a certain level of comfort regarding risk management and being able to sleep better at night, even if the end result may well not be doing whatever it takes to get more richie. 

Surely, we see that some times, guys engage in gambling techniques because their goals are to end the day being more richie than their neighbor or some random person on the interwebs (or being able to say "I told you so"), and those do seem like shallow goals even though we likely do need to admit that a lot of us (not even excluding yours truly here) may well have tendencies to engage in these kinds of potentially shallow competitive comparisons.

It is not necessarily even bad to make comparisons, and I have found it to sometimes be beneficial to suggest that someone's investing into BTC technique seems to NOT even be beating a reasonable/prudent DCA strategy, so maybe it is not fair of me to do that, but many of us have come to realize that DCA can be carried out in a way that allows it to serve as a decently low stress technique to ongoingly invest into BTC without so much getting caught up in the day to day or getting caught up in the fairly violent price swings that can take years (even up to 4 years or longer (we have seen in recent times) to play themselves out).   

So, perhaps it is somewhat cruel of me and maybe even somewhat insensitive to criticize folks for underperforming a reasonable/prudent long term DCA strategy, and I find it somewhat irrelevant if they have outperformed a reasonable/prudent long term DCA strategy - even if that could be icing on the cake and or attributable to either skill, luck or both, and it can be very difficult to really have any kinds of knowledge regarding whether their ability to outperform a reasonable/prudent long term DCA strategy is replicable.

From my point of view, sometimes there can be some fruitfulness in making comparisons - so long as we are attempting to minimize the injection of ego into the competition, and surely its not easy to keep our egos in check - especially if we happen to be a human (not naming any names here - nor trying to subtly insert my lil selfie into such club)