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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26368232 times)
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June 26, 2022, 06:08:33 AM


Nothing is going to happen before the next halving which is scheduled for May-June 2024.
Do not have any false hopes like those Crypto guys on Twitter.

Well, the effects of the halving do tend to get priced in a bit so we should see a mild run-up in advance but that's a long way away yet as you say.
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June 26, 2022, 06:14:43 AM


I don't know if they were daydreaming. Of course, BTC can potentially go $250K or more in the future. That doesn't mean it will Boom in a few months. LOL.

Eventually, sure. And probably sooner than most would think. We're in the doldrums for at least another year though, I think. Healing is needed, bad memories need to fade, confidence needs to return.

Nothing is going to happen before the next halving which is scheduled for May-June 2024.
Do not have any false hopes like those Crypto guys on Twitter.

Nah, I think we will stay around 20 000 to 30 000 ish, maybe with a shortlived drop to 17 000 to 15 000 until winter/christmas, and then a slow rise for the coming two years wit the obligatory skittish jumping around the halving. And then comes the next top of course.
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June 26, 2022, 06:53:07 AM
Last edit: June 26, 2022, 07:03:59 AM by Biodom
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Everyone seems to expect things going 'as before', but they don't....planB fell hard for it.

I think that IF we are starting a new cycle, it could be quite different from the prior cycles.
The amount of front-running could be significant (even more than in 2019) to the point that cycles themselves might come into question.
We have to remember that it is not a true cycle, like rotation of Earth around the Sun with spin axis tilted vs the orbital plane, causing seasons.
The change in the number of coins issued after halving vs ALL coins that were mined before keeps decreasing.
The numerator in (new coins)/(already issued coins in the circulation) is smaller, hence the effect of the new halvings might be less.
At least this is what i think.

It fits the data too: 72X from the first halving to ATH in 2013, 33X from the second halving to ATH in 2017, 7.5X from the third halving to ATH in 2021.
I don't know why the last one was SO timid..the proper number (in case of linear decline) should have been 15X (for about $130K).
Either we would "compensate" for the prior timid cycle and go bananas OR we go for 2-4X from the halving price this time (as per continuing decrease in halving influence).
2X would suggest that the cycles are effectively OVER.
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June 26, 2022, 07:01:09 AM

HAPPY MIDSUMMER EVERYBODY!!

 After watching the movie by the same name, I'm not sure I could ever have a happy one again!


Haven't seen that one, but I'm sure it's just a northern thing, whatever it is.
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June 26, 2022, 07:01:20 AM


Explanation
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June 26, 2022, 07:31:54 AM
Last edit: June 26, 2022, 07:44:16 AM by JayJuanGee

Bitcoin whales are a very important part of the market. It is the mass movements of their coins that can have a huge impact on the price of BTC. This is how buying or selling trends are created. With this in mind, the big fish that decide to sell some of their Bitcoins can lead to a sharp drop in the price of cryptocurrency. As a result, many other investors start to panic selling out of their coins. The same dependence also occurs in the opposite situation. When large quantities of coins are purchased from the market, there are sudden increases in the price of Bitcoin. This in turn leads other players to buy it.


Whales - the biggest Bitcoin investors on the market, have a significant influence on the price movements of this crypto. Although little is known about this group until today, their identity can be speculated on.

The role whales play in the digital gold ecosystem is enormous. While many people suggest that large players only manipulate the market, in some cases the impact of their buying decisions was more positive than negative. For example, a report issued by Chainalysis revealed that owners of the 32 largest Bitcoin portfolios were trading in a herd, buying BTC at a price drop. In fact, the research indicates that already in 2011, the biggest market players were more responsible for Bitcoin's upward movements than its downward movements. This suggests that although whales have too much power over Bitcoin's price, a large part of them have long been trying to make this market successful.

I don't disagree with your various points, but at the same time, I will caution you in terms of attempting to overly explain bitcoin in terms of what might be going on with whales and their successes and failures in the short to medium term BTC price movements.  

Bitcoin remains amongst the free-est of modern markets with decently growing liquidity that is trying to be tamed and controlled by some pretty big players, and just like in the past, there have been some times that some pretty BIG-ASS players have gotten their asses handed to them, and we are also seeing some of that with our current negative BTC price moves, and surely not all of the wreckage is directly attributable to bitcoin, but some of the players who are likely going to zero and/or going to zero were BIG players (or potentially BIG players) who likely bit off more than they could chew, and sure they are contributing to some pretty large decent short-term BTC negative price pressures, and some BTC HODLers and even new folks to BTC will play this period in time in a way that they are financially benefitted and become more powerful through their actions in this period, and others may well not get involved or might even play this time period badly in terms of their expectations of what to do next, and perhaps even preparing for ONLY one BTC price direction - which might not work out well for them.

Besides BTC price momentum, there are other decently informative BTC price models that attempt outline broader trends about what is going on in bitcoin, so downgrading or denigrating those models may well work to the peril of those who are failing to account for such information points contained within the BTC price prediction models, which includes but not limited to 1) Stock to flow, 2) four year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on network effects and Metcalfe principles.  yeah, currently a lot of people believe that such models are dead, and those peeps might not end up having a good time, if they fail/refuse to appreciate the importance of such information contained therein.

What's it mean?

hahahaha

Bitcoin choo choo undergoing maintenance, will be good as new soon enough and rolling to the moon.

The number on the side is a bit too low, they need to fix that.

Fair enough.

I am biting my nails with a kind of anticipation.

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June 26, 2022, 07:41:05 AM

I wonder when 'death_whisper' will calm her tits down and figure out that half o us have her on ignore or skip her posts and no one is listening to her.    Grin    Cheesy    Cheesy
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June 26, 2022, 07:45:24 AM
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I wonder when 'death_whisper' will calm her tits down and figure out that half o us have her on ignore or skip her posts and no one is listening to her.    Grin    Cheesy    Cheesy

What about the other half?

Asking for a friend.
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June 26, 2022, 07:51:14 AM

I wonder when 'death_whisper' will calm her tits down and figure out that half o us have her on ignore or skip her posts and no one is listening to her.    Grin    Cheesy    Cheesy

What about the other half?

Asking for a friend.

Juanita has proof of work.   Cheesy   Cheesy   Roll Eyes
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June 26, 2022, 07:53:07 AM

That last is a huge impediment to big-business Bitcoin adoption.  Most retail-tier HODLers are blissfully ignorant about this, but some leading Bitcoiners are well-informed about the problem.  I recall that Greg Maxwell mentioned this, in some discussion of why he invented Confidential Transactions.  Bitcoin ultra-maximalist company Blockstream uses CT in its Liquid sidechain, for the purpose of giving big businesses and institutional investors at least a modicum of privacy.  I wouldn’t be surprised if some billionaires use Liquid and similar tools to break up the public view of their whale-HODLings.  Meanwhile, moronic “crypto journalists” run headlines about “the biggest whale!!” to impress the n00bs.  SAD.

Actually, that might be another good point that you are making D_W, and I would not characterize it as "sad" but instead a demonstration that there are a lot of folks who have hardly any clue and it is not necessarily a bad thing that they are engaged in some blissful renditions to describe what they believe is going on, [...]

I don’t think it’s sad that average people don’t understand how the world really works.  That is simply a fact of life.  It will sound arrogant for me to say, but it is the truth; and the world was a much more honest place when this fact was more widely acknowledged.  The fact will always be a fact—but now, it is covered over in treacle, pretense, and pandering by politicians to the conceits of the masses.

What is sad to me here:  Reporting on Bitcoinland is generally awful.  Hold that thought.

Sadder:  People who care about privacy have done a poor job of promoting it.  It is an issue that I grapple with myself.  I have generally done a poor job, too.

Different people get different aspects of this issue; but who gets the whole thing?  To illustrate, take two opposite poles:  Blockstream versus Zcash.

Everyone here will love Blockstream, because they are the practically a corporate symbol of Bitcoin maximalism.  But how many know what they actually do?  They are primarily a B2B company.  Aside from some B2C projects such as their acquisition of Green, and their Blockstream Satellite project which is essentially altruism (not only B2C, but made to help poor people in poor countries use Bitcoin!), well—where does Blockstream make their money?  I don’t know their internal structure or their financials (none of my business!), but I plausibly guess that their bread and butter is Liquid, and their Lightning infrastructure projects, and their hosted mining—all B2B, and/or for very wealthy customers.

Blockstream cares about privacy, so what do they do?  Add some minimal privacy to Liquid, which is NOT a consumer-facing project.  (I say “minimal”, because I don’t consider CT sufficient—not nearly.)

On the other end of the spectrum, objectively consider Zcash.  Most people here will knee-jerk hate them, “because altcoin”.  Well, frankly, their coin has been mismanaged.  I think that the dev team are aces at their technology, but naïve about economics and business.  It shows.  I say that as a constructive criticism; I sincerely wish that they had done better.

It is primarily a consumer-facing project, and that also shows.  They have done some purely B2B work (including, infamously, some contract work for JPMorgan Chase on ZK proof tech).  They have done outreach to businesses—to promote B2C use of Zcash.  They have nothing like Blockstream’s promotion of Liquid—the opposite pole; most consumers have no idea what Liquid is!

Why can’t we have everything in one place?  Businesses and consumers both have the same basic need:  Privacy.  And it is also one issue where billionaires and Average Joe have the same basic need—perhaps manifested differently, but the need is the same.  Billionaires and Average Joe also both need to eat food, even if one dines on filet mignon as the other eats hamburgers.

We need people to stand up for Bitcoin and say, everybody needs privacy!  Businesses need it to protect their financials and their internal operations from competitors.  Individuals need it for human dignity, plus many other reasons.  The only people who don’t want it are those who have ulterior motives for mass-surveillance (including “surveillance capitalism”), or those who swallow the propaganda dished out by those with ulterior motives.  Is that a sufficient reason for us to be deprived of something that everybody needs?

Now, look again at that reporting.  It moves things in exactly the wrong direction.  There is a bad meme in Bitcoinland:  The belief that “whale wallets” can all be identified.  (Or that Glassnode stats for STH/LTH are anything better than vague guesses.)  Such memes tends to frame discussions—to frame people’s mindsets in a way not conducive to privacy.  Bitcoiners have learned wrong information.  To attain real privacy in Bitcoin, we need for people to unlearn that wrong information.

Blockchain transparency in Bitcoin is a bug, not a feature.  It wound up that way because Satoshi needed to choose between a centralized, private system like Digicash, or a decentralized, totally public system.  To achieve the latter, he himself needed to make a revolutionary breakthrough in the field of Byzantine fault-tolerant distributed consensus.  He lacked the privacy technology that we have today—development of which was largely motivated by Bitcoin.

But since Satoshi made it that way because he had no better choice, blockchain transparency and its implications have been sold as “features”—often by evil people with vicious motives, such as Mike Hearn.  Hell, I have even seen essays by Craig Wright proclaiming that “Satoshi’s Vision” is to make all financial transactions absolutely public, and Blockstream is criminal for conducting any transactions at all off-chain with Lightning.

There is no reason whatsoever to make all financial transactions transparent and public!  Every alleged legitimate use case for blockchain transparency can be better solved in other ways:  Proof of solvency, auditing, etc.

Once we get rid of the bad meme that there can be such a thing as ranking “whale wallets” based on public blockchain data, we will be much closer to having people unlearn the more general bad idea of a totally transparent global public ledger.
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June 26, 2022, 08:01:19 AM


I have a hard time believing that anyone who holds/controls large sums of bitcoin are going to keep it in places that can be identified as being owned by one person or entity (unless they are a public company or a government that has to make those kinds of disclosures).  

If I were to hold any appreciable amount of Bitcoin (I do not, of course) I would set it up so that it was stored in a multisig cold storage setup (optionally with hardware wallets separately geo-located).  But I would also backup the private keys for each address with <1BTC.  No addresses would have more than, I dunno, 0.7BTC and all slightly different.  But there would be a spreadsheet, created on an airgapped laptop, that was GPG encrypted that held those individual keys... You know... In case.  I would have created detailed instructions on how to access all these Bitcoin (1. With hardware wallets, 2. With Seed Phrases and passwords 3. With individual private keys in the worst case scenario), and trained my wife, and eldest child on the procedure.

But I do not have that sort of Bitcoin stash, so I just hold what I have on Coinbase.

Plus if i DID have that sort of stash?? All those details up there?  Different than what I (would) have really done.

Or not?

Nevermind...

Let's just say that I did not get reckt too badly in this latest leveraging liquidation of the past several weeks, and I was still able to hold onto my greater than 0.63BTC, then how much greater than 0.63BTC would I need to get before it triggered a "separation" threshold concern? 

Within your guidelines, if I were to get up to 0.7 BTC, then that would cause me to end up with wallets around 0.35BTC each.. of course, not the same exact amounts in each wallet, necessarily..

I am pretty sure that if I play my cards right, I should be able to get over 0.7BTC.. but these are scary times.

By the way... fuck off in regards to your name-dropping "Coinbase".. not that you intended to do it (so don't be taking my colorful language too personally like some peeps seem to do, not going to mention the name of bloody mary, because who wants bloody mary showing up merely because it was mentioned three times in a row while looking in a mirror with three screaming school girls)..   I know Jbreher used to name drop Coinbase a lot, and probably just to get little digs in here and there.. not that jbreher is particularly mean.. but he was kind of against going along with certain things, including our use of Stamp as our thread price reference.

In recent times, I have been telling newbies to start out with https://www.swanbitcoin.com/  and they allow you to buy through their cite and also to transfer your coins off of their cite, but they do not have any way to sell BTC through their cite, so a bit of a quandary in terms of one-stop shopping for beginners.
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June 26, 2022, 08:01:20 AM


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June 26, 2022, 08:22:57 AM
Last edit: June 26, 2022, 08:46:13 AM by death_wish

Wow, I didn’t notice something.  cAPSLOCK, WTF?

Coinbase is one of the worst of evil exchanges.  I consider them active enemies of Bitcoin.  They are VC shitcoin pumping central—the worst of the worst for fleecing the newbies by diverting them to buy utterly worthless VC-backed P&D trash instead of Bitcoin!  They are an ultra anti-privacy surveillance company with a side gig of blockchain spying.  Ever since they stopped fighting the IRS, they will basically dump your dox to the IRS.  Insofar as I have seen, they seem to have more horror stories than any other major exchange about freezing user funds for no reason.  And they were even S2Xers.  (I still try to boycott every company on that list!)

When newbies ask me which exchange to use, my #1 advice is “absolutely avoid Coinbase”.

But you use Coinbase.  —But you hate Gemini, which is run by real Bitcoiners? Roll Eyes

But I do not have that sort of Bitcoin stash, so I just hold what I have on Coinbase.
But I would be willing to bet QUITE A BIT that the Winklevoss assholes are financially incentivized to support the ZCASH garbage THANKS TO THE dev tax. This is why I will avoid an account at Gemini until there is no other option.

Just out of curiosity, how much would you be willing to bet?

(I don’t know how such a bet could be properly settled; but I am curious, indeed.)


(Edited to add, just to mention this somewhere:  I don’t know why people are so strongly against the Zcash Founder’s Fee.  Setting aside the obvious fact that cAPSLOCK obviously doesn’t know jack about what it is, or what it is used for—just about the principle of the matter:  There are two basic ways to fund such a project:  A premine like ETH, which has a whole bunch of obvious and non-obvious problems, or some type of seigniorage that goes with issuance of the currency.  Or you want people to develop things for you for free?  Gimme freebies.  Work for me.)

I know Jbreher used to name drop Coinbase a lot, and probably just to get little digs in here and there.. not that jbreher is particularly mean.. but he was kind of against going along with certain things, including our use of Stamp as our thread price reference.

jbreher is a bigblocker.  No wonder he loves Coinbase!  Zing!

(Sort of joking.  I know he had a sick fetish for Bcash; remind me, what did he think of NYA?  He irrationally hated Segwit, so I guess that doesn’t really make sense.)
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June 26, 2022, 08:25:38 AM


CCMF (Chu Chu Mother Fucker) on hold/maintenance. Wink
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June 26, 2022, 08:29:04 AM
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If/when Bitcoin gets real privacy, I expect that it will also embrace “selective disclosure”.  That would preserve irrevocable, undeniable, irrefutable blockchain information for legitimate use cases—while locking out the prying eyes of hackers, cyberstalkers, armed robbers, kidnappers seeking ransom, and commercial espionage that seeks to infer competitive business plans from financial transaction data.
Isn't the blockchain information irrevocable, undeniable and irrefutable because, from the way I know it, these attributes and the confirmation that follows broadcasted transactions are the ways in which the chains are ensured of security.

Speaking of selective disclosure, is that really going to be a plus to the blockchain technology?
You know, the only way for transactions not getting counterfeiters is the verifiable nature of the blocks. I'm not very deep into this stuff so, if am getting it wrong at some point, am happy to be corrected.
With these kidnappers, rubbers and others not knowing who is behind an address what matters to a selective disclosure?

We don't want or need undetectable btc in this world.

We need btc that can be hidden until you need to cash it.

 

Without agreeing or disagreeing, what is the difference between these two apparantly contradictory statements...aka "hidden" and "undetectable".
To me, "hidden" is being temporarily undetectable. Isn't it?

no it is fully detectable ie here is an address


https://www.blockchain.com/btc/address/1BmZSqwX7GivA88FdqupyVRedzRRPE3chr


it moved coins and very likely the gov knows the actual owner.

and here is another address.

3MR9bkqFVX1f1QxutMu55J3VcvAESEw1Yd

no coin in it and the owner of it is hidden


but its existence is not undetectable.


hiding a virgin address is no big deal.

hiding an address owner and mining on an anyonomus pool will create a detectable amount of coin.

but no issue until you cash it out. if we make cash out impossible to detect the world governments will go after btc like mad.

the idea I can mine 100 usd worth of btc to an address no one knows the owner  is fine the governments clock these addresses and can go after you when you cash it.

but if I mine 100 a day on nicehash to a safe address and move out of my country .

(USA) it is likely I will beat the Gov.the money.

In my case my pension and my wife pension is all fed usa paid. so If I run from USA with "hidden BTC" then show it in a tax free country the USA will assess me a tax and confiscate our fed pensions.

I would need 200-300 btc to consider burning my USA citizenship. They don't worry about escape accounts for most of their citizens . As the escape account needs to be huge to be worth it.

Not many people have 200-300 btc in ownership hidden wallets.

I am having some difficulties with your presumption that 200-300 BTC are needed when entry-level fuck you status is at about 89 BTC currently, and likely to continue to go down.. even though right now does not seem to be the greatest time to be shaving off BTC profits..

By the way, entry-level fuck you status is considered equivalent of $2 million and does presume an ability to passively withdraw at least 4% per year, which would be $6,666 per month - which would not be a bad income in a lot of places in the world.. even for two peeps.

I do understand and appreciate that giving up pensions of two people is a pretty BIG thing to be giving up.. but your number 200 to 300 BTC still seems a bit large - and don't get me wrong, I think that it is a pretty BIG ass deal to go down the road of giving up that kind of income (even though you did not state the amount(s) - and don't really want that information either). 

I suppose one of my concerns is that you framing the escape from USA situation (not that I am advising it) as a kind of unthinkable absent having some ungodly amount of BTC when 89BTC and maybe even quite lower quantities of BTC will be more than reasonable to have entry-level or even higher than entry-level fuck you status and beyond.
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June 26, 2022, 08:50:01 AM
Last edit: June 26, 2022, 09:01:56 AM by ivomm
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Everyone seems to expect things going 'as before', but they don't....planB fell hard for it.

I think that IF we are starting a new cycle, it could be quite different from the prior cycles.
The amount of front-running could be significant (even more than in 2019) to the point that cycles themselves might come into question.
We have to remember that it is not a true cycle, like rotation of Earth around the Sun with spin axis tilted vs the orbital plane, causing seasons.
The change in the number of coins issued after halving vs ALL coins that were mined before keeps decreasing.
The numerator in (new coins)/(already issued coins in the circulation) is smaller, hence the effect of the new halvings might be less.
At least this is what i think.

It fits the data too: 72X from the first halving to ATH in 2013, 33X from the second halving to ATH in 2017, 7.5X from the third halving to ATH in 2021.
I don't know why the last one was SO timid..the proper number (in case of linear decline) should have been 15X (for about $130K).
Either we would "compensate" for the prior timid cycle and go bananas OR we go for 2-4X from the halving price this time (as per continuing decrease in halving influence).
2X would suggest that the cycles are effectively OVER.

If we analyze the previous two cycles, we will see something that is omitted as insignificant, but important in my opinion. In the bear market 2014-2016, although the price often returned to 200-ish, it is noticeable that the average price rose on an annual basis: 200-400-600. Price 600-750 at the beginning of the bull market is over 3x compared to the bottom 200.

Something similar happened in 2018-2020. The average price rose from 3,100 to 10K along the halving. This is again 3x +. All this is a reflection of the increase in demand, which is shown by the statistics for the new addresses. What was different this time, was that we had a flat peak for months, which was repeated at even higher levels. This is a strong sign that this price will be reached again in the near future. I say this because before there were voices that 20K is an unattainable price, the fruit of some FOMO, which will not happen again. Now things are even safer than before in this regard.

My explanation for the flat peak and the big dips is the following. In the years before 2021, there was only talk of institutions entering the spot market, not just derivatives. It turned out that they were imperceptibly preparing and all at once entered the market. Only the hedge funds that have bought bitcoins are over 1300 as I read somewhere! Many of these companies have bought over 10K bitcoins. And this is too fast depletion of liquidity in the market. Paradoxically, this did not lead to the expected sharp top above 100K.

There were many reasons for this: the elon musk tweets, the panic in Asian markets over the Chinese ban, but mostly the collapse of some projects that were de facto ponzis or had improper collateral and coudln't support the yield. It turned out that these institutions are investors who view bitcoin as the stocks. They do not expect more than 20% profit or loss. That's why they sell, mostly at a loss. Only the Canadian Purpose ETF, for example, bought over 50K bitcoins at a price above 55K and sold half of them at a price of 17.5K-20K.

In this sense, it turned out that the retail investors behind the institutions are the weakest possible hands. This is logical since if someone can't buy and hodl bitcoins in cold storage then he is not educated enough and hence doesn't have the needed will power. This leads to bankruptcies and sell-offs, which unfortunately have not yet ended. This whole fiasco changed the normal course of the cycles, but not completely. I expect more educated investors to gradually enter through the institutions that will follow the example of Michael Sailor, looking at least 4-5 years ahead.

No matter what the price will be before the next halving, investors who will show character and will not sell anything below 100K will prevail. On the other hand, no one will have any illusions anymore and will most likely sell some quantity between 100K and 200K in anticipation of a 50% + drop. So the most likely top will be in my opinion in this range. But there is a theoretical possibility that there will be no new ATH, if things with the institutions turn out to be much worse than we think (like Greyscale going bankrupt), or the other extreme - to go way over 200K and compensate for the lack of a sharp top in the previous cycle. In my opinion, this can only happen with the appearance of significant news around the normal peak, as happened in 2017.
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June 26, 2022, 09:11:09 AM
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BTC All time Graph is here Just look at this, Just 10 years and BTC Made its Hype all arround the world 10 years more then what you can say about it 100k 200k Do you really think that the Heavy Investors Like Saylor are hoing for the 100k not at all they saving the future for their new generation.




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June 26, 2022, 09:17:32 AM
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gm folks! Cool
the breakfast of a Bitcoin pleb 🍉🥗
stay healthy and hodl Cool

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