Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[empowering]

Orrrrrrrrrrrrrr how about a combination of ALL OF THE ABOVE  ? the whole shebang, Ukraine, Russia, tactical nukes fly, food, fuel, gas shortages, new variant, deaths, lockdown supermax, supply chain grinds to halt, civil unrest, China makes its move.....

Where does that leave BTC price?

you forgot alien invasion.

dunno what would be worse if that happens: they liquefy our brains for a gourmet dessert dish  that become famous all through the galaxy. or they instantly mine all the rest of the bitcoins.

when $0 party?

heh heh.... you know, I actually fully expect "alien invasion" larp at some point in the future, maybe not in our lifetimes though.


Buuuuuuutttt unfortunately, out of all of the scenarios I laid out, or a combination, or a full house.... I just do not see them as being that outrageous, we seem to be on track for mutiple of them, if not the full house actually playing out in reality.


Russia/Ukraine - seems very plausible tactical nukes get deployed, not 100%, but not 0%, and probably higher than 50% imo  - and , markets I do not think have priced this in

Covid- well , according to the MSM, we now have higher covid cases in the UK than at any time apart from three weeks of the pandemic and, I am hearing chatter about "variant concerns" and , IF , and it is a big IF, there is anything worse about the variant... I am hearing chatter about lockdowns in winter again , ALREADY.


Inflation continuing to rise, and interest rates, and inflation not dampening .... looks like its a decent possibility


Food , fuel, energy prices hike like a MOFO come end of year... looks like that is happening (markets possibly pricing that in already?)


Supply chains grind to halt because of all of the above, is a given, if these scenarios play out.


Civil unrest? depends on if ^^ comes to fruition, if so, I can very much imagine it!  ie Energy, Fuel, food shortages and price hikes, employee lay offs from companies, credit crunch/rates rise,  people get priced out of their mortgages and start losing their homes? lockdowns again compounding it all ...people are going to snap (imo)


China is the wildest card amongst the lot... and personally I am not sure that China is ready to make a move yet .....


As for the rest of it.... I can so imagine it.


Again, I can imagine it not playing out that way also.

[Hamza2424]

I personally reinvest 1/3 of my long terms BTC profit at these levels :

- 20K$ (done) = 25%
- 15K$ = 25%
- 12.5K$ (then every 1K$ down from there till 6K's) = 7% each step

...at 5k down to 1k? sell kidney ?  
  

well it depends on whos kidney you sell.

Like ?..

Do you think that Saylor Kidney is good enough or need somebody else

[a1 Hashrate LLC2022]

The mining bear for a 7 cent paid off farm with all s17's is at wait for it:

15k


math as follows

2kwatts x 24 = 48 kwatts a day round to 50

50 x 0.07 = $3.50 power cost


50 x 0.083 = $4.15 gross profit  at 19k

net of 4.15-3.50= 65 cents a day profit.

but at 15k

15/19= .7895 x 4.15= 3.27631 that is a 22 cents lost for a 7 cent miner with all s17's paid off.

7 cent is based on 6 cent power and building labor dead gear = 1 penny more.

this means we did not go bear for a miner. with 6+1 = 7 cent cost.

I am at lower power than that.

13k would be 13/19= .6842 x 4.15 = 2.839 in earnings my power cost is 4 cents + 1 = 5 cents so 5 x 50 = 2.50

2.839- 2.50 = 33 or 34 cent profit on my s17's

So for well setup miners we are not fully bear.

I could see 15-17 easy peasy in the next month and if we get there we need to stay there 2 diff jumps to fully shake most miners

I would be okay as low as 13k after that I would be mining at a loss.

For now I am ready to buy if we go to:

17
16
15
14
13
12?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[nutildah]

How we all doing?

ZZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzz

you?

Good, and you?

Hey fellas. Not too bad, all things considered. Was away for awhile. Had a few drinks, saw a few things...

I believe what the current situation boils down to is:

There's a lot of uncertainty right now but the one thing I'm sure of is the fundamentals of what we believe in haven't changed.

The only thing that has changed is macroeconomic conditions. Bitcoin has only ever lived in a bull stonk market until now. So is this a broader correction or something deeper? Let's hope its the former.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

<snip>

Look who is here. Welcome back brother!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[death_wish]

* death_wish prepares to beat Buddy with a horsewhip.

never work.  hes an ai; his electrons will just laugh at you. an electric cattle prod other the other hand..


buddy we dont want to see you hurt. stop resisting. go UP

Perhaps Buddy may be a masochist—or worse in this context, an algolagniac.

In that case, we need to threaten him with NO PAIN if number goes down, and BIG PAIN if number goes up.

Tell him to short?  *ducks*

[Paashaas]

Entities REKT during this bear market;

[death_wish]

I am waiting for the BTC price to go below $1,000..

Proof:  “JayJuanGee” is proudhon’s alt.

=

Quote ridiculously cherry-picked, for comedic effect.  For the record, my sarcasm meter pegged here.

FTFY

Should have been:  Quote ridiculously cherry-picked, for an amusing way to show Jay what it’s like when someone rips one sentence out of a much larger context, and replies to it within its four corners.  He deserves a taste of that.  Oh, and lulz.

(But good for you, not wanting my little joke to FUD the BTC price.  Oh my gawd, JayJuanGee is expecting sub-$1k prices!  Panic!  SELL!  mindrust!)

[HI-TEC99]

If bitcoin keeps falling soon it won't be enough to just hold BTC. Every holder will have to buy a miner and make it work at home. Because falling under $ 17 000 will force many miners to turn off their equipment. Those who mine with S17 and pay $0.1 per kilowatt lose $1.2 every day if 1 BTC costs $ 20 000.

Oh my God... I just had this terrible thought... This could lead to a sort of negative feedback loop!  Ahh, what could we call it... an "abysmal spinning down".  No too clunky.  Umm, a "deceasement loop"... nah deceasement is not a word, is it?

I don't know... someone could come up with a good name for it.

How have we never thought of this before?

...death spiral ?

When people started talking about a death spiral in 2018 the bottom was in.

This is from December 3, 2018. It's by a University professor of finance "expert".

https://www.ccn.com/worthless-bitcoin-has-entered-death-spiral-finance-professor/

[Biodom]

The whole world is in "oh, s-t" state.

How long it would continue-who knows. All TA is irrelevant now, sorry, and so is trying to decide when to buy.
It's laughable, but sometimes I have a thought that this bitcoin price decrease is to prevent people from "escaping" either fiat OR even physically.
It's OT, but I sold some assets (not bitcoin) a couple of days ago to at least finish the major renovation project (just an old habit of finishing things that you set up to do) without a need to sell at the bottom.

I looked at various second passports and/or residencies and there is NOTHING that represents a true escape. Some Caribbean entities look cheap, but they are just placeholders. Europe is very expensive and/or defeats the purpose of "escaping".

Oh, well, here goes nothing.

[empowering]

If bitcoin keeps falling soon it won't be enough to just hold BTC. Every holder will have to buy a miner and make it work at home. Because falling under $ 17 000 will force many miners to turn off their equipment. Those who mine with S17 and pay $0.1 per kilowatt lose $1.2 every day if 1 BTC costs $ 20 000.

Oh my God... I just had this terrible thought... This could lead to a sort of negative feedback loop!  Ahh, what could we call it... an "abysmal spinning down".  No too clunky.  Umm, a "deceasement loop"... nah deceasement is not a word, is it?

I don't know... someone could come up with a good name for it.

How have we never thought of this before?

...death spiral ?

When people started talking about a death spiral in 2018 the bottom was in.

This is from December 3, 2018. It's by a University professor of finance "expert".

https://www.ccn.com/worthless-bitcoin-has-entered-death-spiral-finance-professor/

Silly professor

[empowering]

The whole world is in "oh, s-t" state.

How long it would continue-who knows. All TA is irrelevant now, sorry, and so is trying to decide when to buy.
It's laughable, but sometimes I have a thought that this bitcoin price decrease is to prevent people from "escaping" either fiat OR even physically.
It's OT, but I sold some assets (not bitcoin) a couple of days ago to at least finish the major renovation project (just an old habit of finishing things that you set up to do) without a need to sell at the bottom.

I looked at various second passports and/or residencies and there is NOTHING that represents a true escape. Some Caribbean entities look cheap, but they are just placeholders. Europe is very expensive and/or defeats the purpose of "escaping".

Oh, well, here goes nothing.

All depends what you want/need/can do ..... ?

Best situation imo, is having options....


(though that being said... if the shit REALLY hits the fan (as even covid lockdowns showed) where you are is where you are)

[death_wish]

If bitcoin keeps falling soon it won't be enough to just hold BTC. Every holder will have to buy a miner and make it work at home. Because falling under $ 17 000 will force many miners to turn off their equipment. Those who mine with S17 and pay $0.1 per kilowatt lose $1.2 every day if 1 BTC costs $ 20 000.

Oh my God... I just had this terrible thought... This could lead to a sort of negative feedback loop!  Ahh, what could we call it... an "abysmal spinning down".  No too clunky.  Umm, a "deceasement loop"... nah deceasement is not a word, is it?

I don't know... someone could come up with a good name for it.

How have we never thought of this before?

...death spiral ?

When people started talking about a death spiral in 2018 the bottom was in.

This is from December 3, 2018. It's by a University professor of finance "expert".

https://www.ccn.com/worthless-bitcoin-has-entered-death-spiral-finance-professor/

People have been talking about a Bitcoin death spiral since May:  A BTC “bank run” type of scenario caused by a negative feedback loop of rapid mass loss of confidence, similar to what happened to Terra.

Since then, depending on exactly which “death spiral” talk you count as “starting”, BTC has lost a third to almost half of its value.  IIRC (and it’s likely I missed something earlier), I first saw “death spiral” talk about Bitcoin after it had dipped below $26k in the Terra dump, then bounced back above $32k.  Thus, by this theory, the bottom was about $25.5k; and at $32k, the recovery was on!

That does not sound like a very reliable indicator that the bottom is already in.  But then, what do I know?  I am such a rube, I still do not know that 200 WMA is “not dead” as a predictor of the bottom. /s

...and I am so “foolish”, I lack faith that the previous cycle top can never, ever be revisited—let alone broken. <jay></jay>

And I am so “bearish”, I want people to stop groping and grasping at straws about predictors of the bottom.  Because when those rationalizations of gambling guesses fail, real panic ensues.  Excessive faith in these types of predictions are what could indeed cause a Bitcoin death spiral.  Repudiating these predictors is healthy for Bitcoin.


WO now features discussion of a “Bitcoin death spiral”.  So, let’s see how much Jay appreciates my allegorical gold-market theory that Bitcoin is fine.  Good as gold.

At that, sputtering cursewords in impotent rage is not a good look for you, Jay.  Especially not when anyone can review the thread, and see that I raised gold as an analogy to teach a lesson to all of the weak-hands who are scared about Bitcoin’s little dip here.  You have been tilting at me like Quixote sicced on a windmill, when I have been pointing to gold’s worst historical bear market to tell the scared people that Bitcoin is fine.  At this point, your irrational reaction to my Bitcoin-is-fine thesis is beyond baffling, and far into the realm of boring.

I am glad that you are here to save us and to let us know that "bitcoin is fine."

Thanks for that.  You are so



helpful.


 





Where would we be without uie-pooie?  


It's a rhetorical question no need to actually answer it.      

[No-substance shitpost, beneath substantive reply.]

Good job losing the respect I’ve held for you for more years than you realize.

Well that sucks.  

Food for thought.

I don’t do “batslaps”.

And if you reply with some arrogant bravado about how “King Daddy gives no shits what uie-pooie thinks”, I will pretty much just point out that you are deeply ensconced in a Reality Distortion Field.  New ideas are needed.  I have them.  Thank me for being bullish while others are discussing a death spiral, instead of flipping off at me over nonsense.

[dragonvslinux]

How long it would continue-who knows. All TA is irrelevant now, sorry, and so is trying to decide when to buy.

What about TA with less price prediction and more statistical data based on yearly MAs? Or at least my attempt of presenting it...

As of the week of June 27th 2022. Using the MA Ribbon (Simple Moving Average) on the Weekly time-frame with intervals of 52 candles, starting with 52 (1 Year).

1 Year: $42,845
2 Year: $36,488
3 Year: $27,229
4 Year: $21,896
5 Year: $19,099
6 Year: $16,104
7 Year: $13,860
8 Year: $12,168
9 Year: $10,869
10 Year: $9787

I agree that no-one really knows how long this bear market will go on for and when it will end. Worst case, it could take an entire decade or two. But when it does come to price, without Bitcoin actually dying (which I think is very unlikely based on fundamentals), even a decade-long bear market imo would likely only yield $10K to $14K prices. Even if price consolidates between $10K and $20K for many years.

Of course we can't compare a decade long bull market in Bitcoin to a decade long bear market in Bitcoin, because the latter has never happened. But imo you can look elsewhere to see what happens when a decade long bull market comes to an end, based on what was previously the best inflation hedge. It generally just means decades of consolidation at worst, as opposed to some 90-99% fall in price.

By comparison, looking at the Gold chart using Monthly MA Ribbon (SMA) with intervals of 12 (1 Year) starting with 12 (after it's decade long bull market and 25x increase):

In summary, I think the worst (or arguably best) case scenario is a bear market based on an extended amount of time, not an extended correction of price.

[Gachapin]

Another giant in the BTCusiness

Intel AXG Blockscale ASIC Begins Shipping...
https://hothardware.com/news/intel-axg-blockscale-asic-begins-shipping-as-crypto-continues-to-crumble


https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/products/docs/blockchain/custom-asic-product-brief.html

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[death_wish]

How long it would continue-who knows. All TA is irrelevant now, sorry, and so is trying to decide when to buy.

What about TA with less price prediction and more statistical data based on yearly MAs? Or at least my attempt of presenting it...

What about TA is astrology.  Stop believing in it.  You have the attitude of a gambling addict, who declares that his special variation of Martingale will really, really work this time, if the strategy is tweaked and the lucky rabbit’s foot is rubbed extra-vigorously.

It would be unwise to get cocky with me.  I can surely find someone in the Gambling forum, who will tell me smugly that I am simply too stupid to understand how his dice strategy beats the casino.

Do I seem vehement?  Excessive belief in TA could cause a Bitcoin death spiral.  One by one, TA bottoms fail:  The 200 WMA, the prior cycle top...  The failure is what causes loss of confidence.  Those who disbelieve TA are now the ones with the most confidence that Bitcoin is fine.  I am vehement, because one thing that can hurt Bitcoin is more bad predictions, which can be true only if lucky.  If unlucky, the result is another round of panic.  That is bad for Bitcoin.

Admitting that TA is dead is healthy for Bitcoin.  To hell with all TA.  Vomit it out like rotten food.  Purge it from your system, and you will see that Bitcoin is fine.  Focus on the value fundamentals:  Highly competent developers, rock-solid reliable technology, huge long-term growth potential in mass-adoption for use as money.  When Bitcoin has that, who cares what magical TA line it breaks next?  Who cares?  Long-term fundamental value gives zero forks about the smashing of all predicted bottoms.

I laugh at TA, and I declare that Bitcoin is good as gold.  See my prior posts on gold’s worst bear market.

inb4 sarcasm about “Bitcoin needs help, I’m here to save it”—Jay, don’t make me send my friend Buddy to slap you with more scary-looking numbers followed by more crying in WO.

[Biodom]

How long it would continue-who knows. All TA is irrelevant now, sorry, and so is trying to decide when to buy.

What about TA with less price prediction and more statistical data based on yearly MAs? Or at least my attempt of presenting it...

As of the week of June 27th 2022. Using the MA Ribbon (Simple Moving Average) on the Weekly time-frame with intervals of 52 candles, starting with 52 (1 Year).

1 Year: $42,845
2 Year: $36,488
3 Year: $27,229
4 Year: $21,896
5 Year: $19,099
6 Year: $16,104
7 Year: $13,860
8 Year: $12,168
9 Year: $10,869
10 Year: $9787

I agree that no-one really knows how long this bear market will go on for and when it will end. Worst case, it could take an entire decade or two. But when it does come to price, without Bitcoin actually dying (which I think is very unlikely based on fundamentals), even a decade-long bear market imo would likely only yield $10K to $14K prices. Even if price consolidates between $10K and $20K for many years.

Of course we can't compare a decade long bull market in Bitcoin to a decade long bear market in Bitcoin, because the latter has never happened. But imo you can look elsewhere to see what happens when a decade long bull market comes to an end, based on what was previously the best inflation hedge. It generally just means decades of consolidation at worst, as opposed to some 90-99% fall in price.

By comparison, looking at the Gold chart using Monthly MA Ribbon (SMA) with intervals of 12 (1 Year) starting with 12 (after it's decade long bull market and 25x increase):

In summary, I think the worst (or arguably best) case scenario is a bear market based on an extended amount of time, not an extended correction of price.

this is actually GREAT TA, thanks. I also thought about gold's 2 decade bear, but I thought that we would enter a long bear from a much higher price (like 300K-1mil).
A valid point about long bears being less 'vertical', too.