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Question: When will BTC get back above $70K:
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8/4 - 16 (13.2%)
8/11 - 7 (5.8%)
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8/25 - 8 (6.6%)
After August - 72 (59.5%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26485884 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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December 24, 2022, 06:39:24 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1)

SBF granted bail just before Christmas. These two tweets sum up the case.



Even though there seem to be pretty obvious partisan aspects to this matter, I think that we get distracted if we accept stupid-ass political frameworks in the ways that we get mad about the various appearances of injustices and improprieties in this case so far.

Sure, he probably should not have been released.

Sure there are probably some political players whose heads might need to roll.

Fuck the partisanship framing.

Let's try to focus..


Focus ur lil selfie. 


Yes, one of the charges, already has the breaking of campaign contribution laws already contained therein, and yes, we need to keep digging regarding the various connections.. whether right, left center or whatever, that money needs to get back to clients to make them whole on a broad level.. . and also we need to make sure that we continue to talk about this in terms of the various frauds, cover-ups, influence peddling, potential attacks on bitcoin in terms of not holding bitcoin on behalf of clients or to make sure that they had enough to cover clients, and even bullshit distractions trying to blame CZ and Binance for frauds that SBF, FTX, Alameda and the various principle agents had committed and connections that still are not clear.. yes.. let's look.. but don't get deflected and distracted into stupid, superficial and emotionally-ladened framings.

KEEP your cool FOLKS!!!!!!!!


In other words:























Calm DOWN !!!!!!!!




and happy holidays, too.


and of course....


Oh my....


Almost not feeling like having a strong stomach when looking at that... but at least it doesn't seem to be partisan... perhaps? 

Isn't everything vulnerable to partisanship these days?

[edited out much longer post]
They were printing money for all I savings bond holders.

I sent you a merit even though I disagree with several of your points... and several seem to be making confusing connections.. even though weaved in some decently valid points too.. so you probably believe that gobble-dee-gook ...

and don't even get me wrong.. there are people who believe even worse gobbledy gook than you, so it can be helpful that you outline it.


Regarding the one above highlighted point, I understand that you are saying that money printing ends up giving money towards more normies being able to buy I savings bonds, and sure that is factually true... but it is not really a very good explanation in regards to what is going on with I savings bonds.. so yeah, the US government is engaging in its own internal contradictions by creating the most stringent of monetary policies to cause the dollar to be the strongest of the currencies and for value to be attracted to the dollar... so in that sense there has developed a way to get away with this because the USD is the strongest of the fiats... and the policies of stringent policies will cause money to gravitate towards to the dollar... but the printing of money is the opposite and undermines the dollar.. but the printing of the money is more subtle and no one seems to be able to measure it very easily.  .. but the printing of the money is not exactly directly supporting the buying of the Ibonds.. because the IBonds end up getting supported by having the highest nominal interest rates (and may well not have positive real rates.. but the least bad fiat)... so I would suggest that when the dollar gets so fucked up that the printing ends up having to buy the Ibonds directly rather than attracting suckers like you to buy them, then we are really fucked when the situation gets that circular... which may happen a couple more cycles down the road.

I don't claim to be any genius.. but just wanted to say that your way of framing the matter just comes off as weird, even though it is not completely factually inaccurate, but not really that great of a way of describing matters in order to help to appreciate the kind of desperation going on.. that at the same time may well allow for the kicking of the can down the road for one, two or maybe even three cycles.. and surely, we cannot even know for sure if the whole bunch of bullshit might come crashing down more quickly than expected either.. and whether the crash is slow or it takes 30-50 years, it remains good to keep building bitcoin allocations.. and the amount of bitcoin allocation is going to vary from person to person in regards to his/her personal circumstances.. and sure institutions and governments are coming more into bitcoin too.. so great that individuals have been able to front run institutions and governments to the extent that individuals do not overly get caught up in bullshit narratives that fail and refuse to adequately account for bitcoin's role in this..

Actually one of the better sources of information regarding points that I am trying to lamely make is Jeff Booth.. price of tomorrow and various other talks (podcasts) that he participates in that address these kinds of topics in regards to what is going on with money and how these matters are playing out.
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December 24, 2022, 07:01:17 PM


Explanation
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December 24, 2022, 07:15:51 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

SBF looks happier then most people on house arrest yet he has got to know that he is probably going down? Both of his closest colleagues have already admitted their guilt in fraud. Why does this many looks so happy when his fate has already been determined? I know people are complaining about the bail but you only pay 10-20% of the bail and all it means is they can return home on house arrest it does not mean they get away with anything. As long as they attend the court hearing then the bail gets refunded too.
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December 24, 2022, 07:31:44 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), Biodom (1), JayJuanGee (1)

SBF granted bail just before Christmas. These two tweets sum up the case.



Even though there seem to be pretty obvious partisan aspects to this matter, I think that we get distracted if we accept stupid-ass political frameworks in the ways that we get mad about the various appearances of injustices and improprieties in this case so far.

Sure, he probably should not have been released.

Sure there are probably some political players whose heads might need to roll.

Fuck the partisanship framing.

Let's try to focus..


Focus ur lil selfie. 


Yes, one of the charges, already has the breaking of campaign contribution laws already contained therein, and yes, we need to keep digging regarding the various connections.. whether right, left center or whatever, that money needs to get back to clients to make them whole on a broad level.. . and also we need to make sure that we continue to talk about this in terms of the various frauds, cover-ups, influence peddling, potential attacks on bitcoin in terms of not holding bitcoin on behalf of clients or to make sure that they had enough to cover clients, and even bullshit distractions trying to blame CZ and Binance for frauds that SBF, FTX, Alameda and the various principle agents had committed and connections that still are not clear.. yes.. let's look.. but don't get deflected and distracted into stupid, superficial and emotionally-ladened framings.

KEEP your cool FOLKS!!!!!!!!


In other words:























Calm DOWN !!!!!!!!




and happy holidays, too.


and of course....


Oh my....


Almost not feeling like having a strong stomach when looking at that... but at least it doesn't seem to be partisan... perhaps? 

Isn't everything vulnerable to partisanship these days?

[edited out much longer post]
They were printing money for all I savings bond holders.

I sent you a merit even though I disagree with several of your points... and several seem to be making confusing connections.. even though weaved in some decently valid points too.. so you probably believe that gobble-dee-gook ...

and don't even get me wrong.. there are people who believe even worse gobbledy gook than you, so it can be helpful that you outline it.


Regarding the one above highlighted point, I understand that you are saying that money printing ends up giving money towards more normies being able to buy I savings bonds, and sure that is factually true... but it is not really a very good explanation in regards to what is going on with I savings bonds.. so yeah, the US government is engaging in its own internal contradictions by creating the most stringent of monetary policies to cause the dollar to be the strongest of the currencies and for value to be attracted to the dollar... so in that sense there has developed a way to get away with this because the USD is the strongest of the fiats... and the policies of stringent policies will cause money to gravitate towards to the dollar... but the printing of money is the opposite and undermines the dollar.. but the printing of the money is more subtle and no one seems to be able to measure it very easily.  .. but the printing of the money is not exactly directly supporting the buying of the Ibonds.. because the IBonds end up getting supported by having the highest nominal interest rates (and may well not have positive real rates.. but the least bad fiat)... so I would suggest that when the dollar gets so fucked up that the printing ends up having to buy the Ibonds directly rather than attracting suckers like you to buy them, then we are really fucked when the situation gets that circular... which may happen a couple more cycles down the road.

I don't claim to be any genius.. but just wanted to say that your way of framing the matter just comes off as weird, even though it is not completely factually inaccurate, but not really that great of a way of describing matters in order to help to appreciate the kind of desperation going on.. that at the same time may well allow for the kicking of the can down the road for one, two or maybe even three cycles.. and surely, we cannot even know for sure if the whole bunch of bullshit might come crashing down more quickly than expected either.. and whether the crash is slow or it takes 30-50 years, it remains good to keep building bitcoin allocations.. and the amount of bitcoin allocation is going to vary from person to person in regards to his/her personal circumstances.. and sure institutions and governments are coming more into bitcoin too.. so great that individuals have been able to front run institutions and governments to the extent that individuals do not overly get caught up in bullshit narratives that fail and refuse to adequately account for bitcoin's role in this..

Actually one of the better sources of information regarding points that I am trying to lamely make is Jeff Booth.. price of tomorrow and various other talks (podcasts) that he participates in that address these kinds of topics in regards to what is going on with money and how these matters are playing out.


How the fuck do you write so much ?

Not complaining as I post like a mofo but not with the precise writing that you try to do.

I tend  to write like James Joyce just let it rip.

Stream of consciousness style.

I have a USA based theory of why the gov does these games with interest.

I base it on the Long Island railroad retirement system.

see below:

My step dad is 90 years old.
He worked for the Long Island Railroad from the age of 22  to 52

he has been in retirement for 38 years. 8 years longer than he worked.

his son my stepbrother is 60
he got a job in 1984 or 1985 with the long Island railroad he was 22 or 23.

He retired at 55 he is on pension for 7 years.

his son is 25 he is working at the Long Island railroad for 3 years.

The model above does not work cannot work if every family in the USA was setup the way they are it all falls apart.

So the feds play pendulum with war ,interest rates ,unemployment . In an effort to keep it all from imploding.

Now I would argue it has not fully imploded since 1929-1939 which they fixed with WWII.

I am hoping they avoid the next full implosion better than they did back then.

We will have a much better idea by 2024 Nov just how fucked the USA will be.
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December 24, 2022, 07:39:30 PM

How many accounts does nullius have?

About 5 that I count off the top of my head.

Did you mean unbanned ones?
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December 24, 2022, 07:43:22 PM

Just received below SMS... only if it was BTC...


It's a trap!!!
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December 24, 2022, 07:47:11 PM
Last edit: December 26, 2022, 06:38:29 AM by Hueristic
Merited by BitcoinBunny (2), vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), nutildah (1)

SBF granted bail just before Christmas. These two tweets sum up the case.





Don't try to gaslight us you fuck tard.

FTX gave equal amounts to Dems and Reps and it was the REPUBLICAN Majority Leader that Led a equal parts Dem and Reps push to get the SEC off FTX's back.

BOTH PARTIES ARE GARBAGE.

Fuck off with your divisive partisan lies.


IN Other news....


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December 24, 2022, 08:01:16 PM


Explanation
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Far, Far, Far Right Thug


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December 24, 2022, 08:08:39 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1), JayJuanGee (1), AlcoHoDL (1), OutOfMemory (1)

Merry Christmas Everybody

From BB


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December 24, 2022, 08:42:55 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1)

Whatever a persons belief in celebrating christmas it is generally for a good reason while I am not religious I do not care if people want to celebrate it for religious purposes or just because its a nice time of the year. We do not have to make everything political.

I did not make anything political. In fact I said that “it’s nice to celebrate love and giving”.
I’m sure anyone can figure out the marketing involved now days.



There are many people who do not celebrate christmas btw not just old calendarists as you say

Of course, but I was referring to the Christian community - hence the Old Calendarists.



How many accounts does nullius have?

I’m guessing hardly as many as you do, dear disgraceful you.



About 5 that I count off the top of my head.

There is no talk of rope - in the hanged mans house.



Did you mean unbanned ones?

Defamation attempt spotted again.
nullius did not, does not, will not, ever break any rules, so no, he can’t have banned accounts - to the best of my knowledge.



But hey, it’s Xmas, so do watch a movie:

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt11564570/
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December 24, 2022, 08:53:47 PM
Last edit: December 24, 2022, 09:45:55 PM by Biodom
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)

<snip>..sorry it was becoming too long to quote


How the fuck do you write so much ?

Not complaining as I post like a mofo but not with the precise writing that you try to do.

I tend  to write like James Joyce just let it rip.

Stream of consciousness style.

I have a USA based theory of why the gov does these games with interest.

I base it on the Long Island railroad retirement system.

see below:

My step dad is 90 years old.
He worked for the Long Island Railroad from the age of 22  to 52

he has been in retirement for 38 years. 8 years longer than he worked.

his son my stepbrother is 60
he got a job in 1984 or 1985 with the long Island railroad he was 22 or 23.

He retired at 55 he is on pension for 7 years.

his son is 25 he is working at the Long Island railroad for 3 years.

The model above does not work cannot work if every family in the USA was setup the way they are it all falls apart.

So the feds play pendulum with war ,interest rates ,unemployment . In an effort to keep it all from imploding.

Now I would argue it has not fully imploded since 1929-1939 which they fixed with WWII.

I am hoping they avoid the next full implosion better than they did back then.

We will have a much better idea by 2024 Nov just how fucked the USA will be.

You are definitely on to something here.
Soc sec is 20 tril "in the hole", yet more than 50% seniors depend on it and they paid into it...calling it a "benefit' is a bit disingenuous.
I have no idea how they will "fix" this.
At least soc sec has COLA, many regular pensions don't have it, so payment streams slowly dwindle (in value).
Peeps would have to think hard how to finance their potential longevity and bitcoin should be a big part of that.

For those who are interested, here is something about some US states attitude toward educators:
1. You cannot bargain for salary/benefits increase through work stoppage (by law).
2. You cannot pay into social security. Instead, you are obligated to pay to a pension fund, which does not provide COLA (cost of living adjustment).
3. Once you get that pension, you are being deducted half of the pension yearly amount from your soc sec (called WEP). Some complicated rules might make it less expensive, but you need to clock more than 30 years outside to be free of the WEP.
For some, it probably wipes out their social security entirely.
4. My state is 49th in both salary and benefits for educators, but see point#1. It's not that i complain about the situation, it's the fact that, unless you leave education altogether, you cannot change your situation and once you logged 5 years in education, you cannot prevent that value subtraction.

You can ask: why bother to work in education?
My personal answer is:
For most part, I didn't, but my work career is coming to a close (I hope to decide this on my own, though), so it does not matter much, I am just commenting on the situation.
In addition: my IRAs and bitcoin would, hopefully, provide the bulk of the future cash flows.
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December 24, 2022, 09:01:20 PM


Explanation
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December 24, 2022, 09:40:11 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), Arriemoller (1), OutOfMemory (1)

Prettige Kerstdagen
Merry Christmas
Frohe Weihnachten
God Jul
καλά Xριστoύγεννα
Crăciun Fericit
Joyeux Noël
Feliz Navidad
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December 24, 2022, 09:43:02 PM

SBF looks happier then most people on house arrest yet he has got to know that he is probably going down? Both of his closest colleagues have already admitted their guilt in fraud. Why does this many looks so happy when his fate has already been determined? I know people are complaining about the bail but you only pay 10-20% of the bail and all it means is they can return home on house arrest it does not mean they get away with anything. As long as they attend the court hearing then the bail gets refunded too.

Because "going down" is not half as scary as people might think.

Look at Mark Karpeless before and after serving time (only ~1 year):

Before:

After:


SBF's case is much higher calibre than MK's, but he's got waaaay better connections than MK ever had. He'll serve 2-3 years tops in a comfy environment and will enjoy his hidden stash after that. Mark my words.
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December 24, 2022, 09:49:02 PM



Well the problem is the printer was here all of 2022.

They were printing money for all Long Term Care insurance companies.
They were printing money for all social security benefits.
They were printing money for all I savings bond holders.
They were printing money for all TSP holding the G-Fund.


Do the math for the above and the money already dished out to the people above is remarkably close to 1.7 trillion dollars.

But the mass media did not talk much about the above.

Oh in 2023 all of the above are still on schedule for more more more.


1) Now as an I bond holder - nice
2) as an 401Tsp g fund holder - nice
3) as a social security beneficiary starting in 2023- nice
4) as the caretaker of the owner of a Long term care policy - nice
5) as the husband to a person that has a federal pension getting 8% raise - nice

as a BTC miner - not nice
as a BTC holder - not nice
as a guy trying to be like JJG Just DCA - neutral to nice.


All of the above illustrates why hedging is okay to do.


Only USA people can do the I-Bonds
So do some 1 a month for 100
and DCA at least 100 a month for your BTC

or just complain that the telegraphed moves by the fed suck even when they are easy to hedge.

Am I fortunate that I get a benefit from all 5 listed not really.

1)It means I live in the USA - lucky I guess not sure

2)It means my wife's 401 tsp never got big stock gains last 10 years.
3)It means I am older (66 in 30 days)
4)It means my bro-in-law is really sick (dementia)
5)It means my wife is getting older 67 in 3 months

As for 2-5 I rather be 35 years old and working hard as long as I was with my wife.


Oh to all of W.O

Merry
Christmas!

I am not an economist but as far as I understand "serving" 1.7 trillion budget under 0% vs. 4 - 5% are two very different things so it makes sense to me for the Feds pivot sooner than later. Having the budget as high as 1.7 trillion and keeping raising interest is like shooting yourself in the leg...
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Explanation
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December 24, 2022, 10:15:38 PM

Damn you Hueristic. I was actually enjoying having zero merits.
I guess you had to spoil it. Embarrassed

Merits.
I kindly ask that you never-ever merit me. I surely won’t merit you back.
Not because what might be written is not merit worthy, but because the merit system is corrupt, useless, and most importantly - because it deflects and distracts attention from the important stuff, empowering scammers. For what it’s worth - next to zero - if ever I get enough accidental merits accumulated, I will merit certain nullius posts to the max, only.

Excellent example here, is El_Duderinio.
El_Duderinio will heavily merit you, as long as you suck his dick. The moment you say or do something that doesn’t fit in his fantasy world, you’re doomed. He will merit all the cockroaches without giving it a second thought. Of course he is free to do as he pleases, but this is not the point.

So I will ask El_Duderinio himself:
- Do you really think, that my posts or my cousins posts offer zero value to this community?
- Do you think that asking “what’s special about your fucking cross-fit shoes” deserves merit instead?
- Are you a fucking idiot?

Don’t answer if it’s too stressful, I know the answers already.
Sorry Dude, but someone has to bat slap you. Do not - I repeat - do not ever merit me, or I will rip you a new one.

So much for axiocratic standards.
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December 24, 2022, 10:25:46 PM
Last edit: December 24, 2022, 10:40:11 PM by OutOfMemory

US temperatures to drop to -30C and even -45C in some places over Christmas. Stay safe everyone.

In other news: Swedish brat loses her cool when her long range weather predictions turn to shit.





the climate catastrophe sect has an excuse for everything...  Like "weather extremes increase"...  and some climate researcher whose income and reputation depend on the climate hysteria will quickly come up with a study which "proofs" it...


Yeah!
Who needs science anyway, when nobody is able to understand it?
If there were no scientists, there would be no climate change, aminotrite?

 Cheesy Roll Eyes

Merry Christmas, first of all.

Quote

seems you want to paint me as an idiot (which I probably am anyways), when I have not even stated anything disputable imo...
but you are welcome  ...


Nope. But (rapid) climate change is a scientific fact. Being sceptical to climate-change, like i was too in the past, is more or less idiotic, facing nowadays fact base.
So there's that. It's easy to look stupid when one is chanting in with a sceptic's narratives.
Don't take my words too personal. I'm not a very social guy, so my words are often taken as offensive, when they aren't in reality. That's also the reason why i almost never feel offended by anyone. It's complicated, i can't even explain it just like so.
You'd better off to take my words like just a different opinion.


Quote
For sake of communication what I wanted to say is:  

Like always in history, we have end-of-the-world sects.
Nowadays, at least one of them in the field of climate change.

Right. I compare this to the bell curve of religions. There is Islam, with 1% radicals, and Christians on the other side, with 1% radicals (rough numbers).
The end-of-world-parts are even less, but both are following the same dynamics, originating from fear (of death).

Quote
They hold extreme views within the scientific climate debate that is supported by a variety of better or (more often) worse computer models..

I wouldn't trust either models too much. We know that a model is only as good as the complexity it can follow, based on reality. This correlations are typically very basic and simple. Even if the climate change was 100% human-driven, we couldn't reverse or slow it down suffciently.
Now there's the good part: Our species is used to adapt quickly, and this is what made us the dominant lifeform on this planet (when you leave bacteria and viruses out of the equation). Let me redact that to mammals, ok?

Quote
The climate sects give themselves names like "Last Generation" and believe they are the chosen ones to save the world. They have their priest-like figures like that mentally instabile Greta girl
Greta is innocent, and this is why she is being easy to be (ab)used.
Again, it's the mighty ego that drives (some of) us to identify with narratives like "last generation".

Quote
These apocalyptic sects' views are not(!) for debate, so logically they have to fight every counter argument and make excuses for anything that counters their view by default.

There are many researchers whose income depends on climate hysteria and they are incentivized to write paper after paper to drive a hysterical view forward.  

The debate is extremely politicized and the scientific field is flooded with billions of Dollars. It's obvious that a lot of junk science and junk papers are in circulation.

That's a very simple view of what's happening, but i can't rule out that it is partly true, at least.
There's a common underlying entity, named the human ego, which is driving people to do many strange things which they don't question, and it's used to justify anything in the name of rigtheousness. Whatever that is, you know?

Quote
I have never stated that the climate doesn't change. But it is definitely used by politics in a big way.

We can sure both agree on that.
But then, when you watch what they do, it's very different to what they say.
I suggest that's how things work nowadays. Mostly since 9/11 - imo the latest real Black Swan event in history - politics and society have changed a lot since then, on a global scale. I don't know how to say it in a simple way, but fear is the key to everything behavioural in humans. If we could handle fear in a consious way, we'd be far better off with everything. It may need a lot of time to get there, though.


Merits


You obviously didn't understand Merits. You claim they are worthless, on the other hand you give them so much (negative) attention, which shows how important they are to you.
Explain.
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December 24, 2022, 10:37:29 PM
Merited by OutOfMemory (1)

Merry Christmas to Whole WO Family



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December 24, 2022, 10:45:23 PM


I have no idea how they will "fix" this.


Same way they "FIX" the banking system.
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