Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

Too bad ChatGPT membership is now closed (who knows for how long).

At least, I have my WO 'membership' where I can partake in ChatGPT "funnies", albeit without an ability to ask for some myself.

BTW, it would make a perfect sense for some AI to make a play to accumulate bitcoin...just in case, lol.

[JayJuanGee]

I'm waiting for a $25k price, the whole market would go crazy and the buy starts, who is insane enough to sell Bitcoin now?

Traders.

Bears.

People who don't give too many fucks about price.

Another thing relates to specifics, no?  If someone has 1,000 BTC, he could sell something in the ballpark of 1 BTC and not give any shits..   similarly someone with 1 BTC could sell 100,000 satoshis and not give too many shits, so maybe it is a matter of degree.. too.. but hey maybe we have different ideas about what might be considered insane?

By the way, I am pretty sure that there are at least a couple of resistance points between current price and $25k, so you are correct that getting there might contribute towards a certain level of bullishness; however, historically, I have frequently gotten nervous when the BTC price goes up too quickly in terms of whether it will keep going up.. and we could all of a sudden end up having a 2 weeks to 2 month pause in the upward price movement.. and many times those pauses end up resulting in decent amounts of retracement.. including that the whole UPPity that had been witnessed could end up transitioning into DOWNity.. which surely I doubt that we could even have confidence about being out of our bear market, yet.

I am feeling very bullish this morning. I think we can get back to $30,000 in the next couple of months. I think by the end of March we will have recovered to there and at the end of the year we might push higher then the previous ATH. What do you think?

 

I think that if we go towards anywhere between $30k and $50k in the coming few months, then we are likely to have a decent sized correction of at least 20%, but it could get into the 40% to 50% arena..

I think that there is a resistance at current price and also at $24k-ish, and then again at $30k... and probably some others on the way up.. but hey, I doubt that any of us should feel that we have to bank on the BTC price going up in order to profit.. - even though I know some folks want to get back over some of their buy cost thresholds, but if you keep buying when the BTC price is down, with the passage of time, your BTC price cost threshold comes down.. that is part of the benefits of DCA and also buying below your average cost per BTC... seems to improve your chances of profiting from your investment into bitcoin in the long term.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gachapin]

price has increased 12 days in a row


https://twitter.com/DocumentingBTC/status/1614782378416775169


every time these streaks were followed by a massive bullrun to a new ATH within the next half a year...  let's see let's see  

[Biodom]

price has increased 12 days in row


https://twitter.com/DocumentingBTC/status/1614782378416775169


every time these streaks were followed by a massive bullrun to a new ATH within the next half a year...  let's see let's see  

Straight 8 green weekly candles in Oct-Nov 2013 (from $143 to about $1200).
Now, THAT was a pump (%-wise).
Of course, with btc at about $400 bil mcap, I don't expect 700% in a few weeks  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has now allowed banks to now hold 2% of their reserves in cryptocurrencies as per its recently released Prudential Treatment of Crypto Asset exposure report for December 2022. In June, the BIS had allowed only a few banks to hold not more than 1% of their reserves in cryptos.

https://www.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/bis-allows-banks-to-hold-2-of-their-reserves-in-cryptocurrencies-2966647
Don't shoot the messenger, I didn't pick the wording

There is an exponential aspect to doubling.

In regards to bitcoin specifically, I would suggest anywhere between 1% and 25% for someone who is a responsible grownup.. so yeah, maybe banks have to work their lil selfies up towards the higher end of the range... .. but if they are actually contemplating shitcoins or "crypto" then fuck that nonsense, I am not even sure if 1% would be tolerable for that.. maybe 0.25% at most?... or maybe up to 1% of the bitcoin amount.

I do believe that this rally signals the 15.5K bottom, but I do not believe the market will just run away and leave me behind. Inflation or Recession  or Both!?, these are the options people... but sure drain oil reserves to make CPI print look ok for a minute that'll save us! ... it's going to be a tough year for markets bitcoin included.

Does not mean that it is a good idea to short it when the BTC price is about 75% below the November 2021 top and also about 31% below the 200-week moving average.  That does not seem to be very smart.. even if you might be able to keep doubling down on your dumb bet until we get to $50k.

I buy the dips and sell the rips, this is my contribution to price discovery  
watching price and placing bets, doubling down, taking profits, cutting losses. Its fun.
come on you know you wana play  

What you are describing doesn't make me too excited... but I do get excited about various BTC accumulation strategies that relate to attempts to long term invest into BTC.. that can evolve into maintenance and or liquidation strategies, but to me it sounds like you are in the habit of some form of gambling.. which call me a fud dud, but I do not get too excited in engaging in selling strategies that are used to accumulate more bitcoin, unless you have already reached a considerable level of profits.. so that may well not really be having a sell to accumulate more component, but instead a sell to insure against some downside risk.. and really not expecting to profit in great ways, even though if you follow my system long enough it does seem to have pretty high likelihoods of being profitable...

... and I am not even sure if I give too many shits about profitability measurements, especially in the short term.. but for me it provides a kinds of psychological and financial balancing that tends to be comfortable for me...which seems to be pretty profitable in terms of long term tendencies and that is likely because bitcoin has been profitable long term and likely these kinds of considerations would be applicable to some others as well,.... perhaps? perhaps? .. even if they may well not know it.. not that I am trying to sell anything or convince anyone to follow in my ways .. peeps can do what the fuck they want, and peeps should be employing their own due diligence and discretion within their own judgement of their circumstances, even though I have been sharing my ideas for free in this thread for almost 9 years... and sometimes they are not very smart ideas, either.. so up to uie poo-ie if you might find some value in my posts.. oh yeah and another thing is that I find value in my own posts.. so there is that angle too..  my motivations to post are not necessarily benevolent in their ways of getting me to sit down and tap out some word-salads.

price has increased 12 days in row

https://twitter.com/DocumentingBTC/status/1614782378416775169
every time these streaks were followed by a massive bullrun to a new ATH within the next half a year...  let's see let's see   

I would hate to rely too much on that kind of a seemingly random indicator.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitcoinBunny]

.....

Boring... but thanks for taking the effort.

Boring?... AKA ... there's nothing in there that takes the piss out of JB and matches my narrative...so "boring"...lol.

Yes, yes, I hear ya.

Been telling myself to worry less about politics and other things I can't change anyway and spend more time on my creative hobbies.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[strawbs]

Source

when see BTC price $21k the relax mode on fly up BTC

That cat appears to have a fifth leg with a human foot. Freaky.

[OutOfMemory]

Hm, my transaction from broker to wallet (2.4 sat/byte) is still unconfirmed after one hour 
Not that i worry, but this is the first time i didn't receive at least one confirmation within at least 30 minutes...
Mining WO's, is there something up that i missed?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Negotiation]

Source

when see BTC price $21k the relax mode on fly up BTC

That cat appears to have a fifth leg with a human foot. Freaky.

just feeling Out with a relaxe when see BTC price is mooving up contineu.


#BITCOIN TO ONE MILLION.

Twitter

Not now but hopefully next year or the year after that also golden time is comming BTC

[John Abraham]

Someone's Merit Whoring is getting annoying.  
Stop Posting Full-Screen Images (Except Charts) 

[psycodad]

Hm, my transaction from broker to wallet (2.4 sat/byte) is still unconfirmed after one hour  
Not that i worry, but this is the first time i didn't receive at least one confirmation within at least 30 minutes...
Mining WO's, is there something up that i missed?

Your fee is too low for current mempool state:

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Lucius]

Your fee is too low for current mempool state

The situation with mempool doesn't look that bad, there are currently only about 9000 unconfirmed transactions and with a few quick blocks that will clear up. 2.4 sat/byte is currently somewhere in the zone between No priority and Low priority but not so far that it won't be confirmed in the next few hours.

https://mempool.space/

[OutOfMemory]

Your fee is too low for current mempool state

The situation with mempool doesn't look that bad, there are currently only about 9000 unconfirmed transactions and with a few quick blocks that will clear up. 2.4 sat/byte is currently somewhere in the zone between No priority and Low priority but not so far that it won't be confirmed in the next few hours.

https://mempool.space/

Finally it got confirmed. I looked up the purchase history and the 2nd most recent transaction had a tad over 22 sat/bytes.
Maybe a temporary flaw at the broker. In the block explorer 2.4sat/byte is tagged as "optimal". 
It was just unusual for me to wait that long for a confirmation of a transaction by this particular source of BTC.
Thanks for information