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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26367284 times)
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January 05, 2023, 10:01:18 PM


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January 05, 2023, 10:06:10 PM



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January 05, 2023, 10:43:33 PM

My perception is definitely things went down after the start of the pandemic, not only referring to this thread.

Most definitely covid had something to do with it. The pandemic caused a lot of conspiracy-prone inhabitants of this thread to fly totally off the chain, never to return to a state of mental balance...

sadly... many of the conspiracies became reality and we are not through that yet.
So who is to blame...


Not only conspiracies, there was a social shockwave going around the planet.
(i should not sound too dramatic, though)
This crisis has put our nerves and viewpoints to the test, not to mention the numerous facepalm events, that still make me feel like they left a slight groove on my forehead...
A good outlook how much we would fail in face of a real crisis of bigger magnitudes, and they definitely are already building up slowly.
Not to sound too negative, but humanity is very far from being able to "control" anything on this planet. Pretty risky for a "we shall address this later, let's just keep calm and continue observing". From an tech enthusiast's view like me, it's like looking at a historically overgrown piece of proprietary software, which every programmer is afraid to touch in fear of breaking things.

Imaginary developer: "Let's just let this thing run, it always worked in the past, so it will probably work forever. The smoke coming out of the vents should be nothing to worry about, right?"

Humans had always have to deal with crises and were never in control.  It's always been that way.
So far... we have come very far.  We were dying in our 30s not long time ago. Humanity is a huge success story in terms of development, if you ask me.

And if humanity doesn't make it, so bei it.  I'm sure we are not the only life in the universe.  

Like you said, it's all very complex.  And we sure know that central planning is not the way to go in society.  We all are the "programmers" you mention but not one of us has the perfect plan.  It's a process taking thousands of years. I'm not even sure that you or I could even evaluate that realistically within our 100 years lifetime....

... we can just individually rely on our intellect, intuition and feelings and guess what is best... we are just a kind of animal moving around and not the designer of it all  ...that would be nature or how you wanna call it




I think you mean what i would call "mankind". By "humanity" i was meaning our emotional, emphatic nature of our being. "humaneness" would be a synonym.
All other things you said are right, though.
The central problem here, i  guess, is that we are capable of thinking ahead, evaluating consequences of our planned actions, but we don't really do this, nor we know how to do this. Mankind, i mean...
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January 05, 2023, 10:46:51 PM
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This is all you need to know.

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January 05, 2023, 11:01:17 PM


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January 05, 2023, 11:14:07 PM
Last edit: January 05, 2023, 11:30:23 PM by Gachapin
Merited by El duderino_ (10), JayJuanGee (1), HI-TEC99 (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

My perception is definitely things went down after the start of the pandemic, not only referring to this thread.

Most definitely covid had something to do with it. The pandemic caused a lot of conspiracy-prone inhabitants of this thread to fly totally off the chain, never to return to a state of mental balance...

sadly... many of the conspiracies became reality and we are not through that yet.
So who is to blame...


Not only conspiracies, there was a social shockwave going around the planet.
(i should not sound too dramatic, though)
This crisis has put our nerves and viewpoints to the test, not to mention the numerous facepalm events, that still make me feel like they left a slight groove on my forehead...
A good outlook how much we would fail in face of a real crisis of bigger magnitudes, and they definitely are already building up slowly.
Not to sound too negative, but humanity is very far from being able to "control" anything on this planet. Pretty risky for a "we shall address this later, let's just keep calm and continue observing". From an tech enthusiast's view like me, it's like looking at a historically overgrown piece of proprietary software, which every programmer is afraid to touch in fear of breaking things.

Imaginary developer: "Let's just let this thing run, it always worked in the past, so it will probably work forever. The smoke coming out of the vents should be nothing to worry about, right?"

Humans had always have to deal with crises and were never in control.  It's always been that way.
So far... we have come very far.  We were dying in our 30s not long time ago. Humanity is a huge success story in terms of development, if you ask me.

And if humanity doesn't make it, so bei it.  I'm sure we are not the only life in the universe.  

Like you said, it's all very complex.  And we sure know that central planning is not the way to go in society.  We all are the "programmers" you mention but not one of us has the perfect plan.  It's a process taking thousands of years. I'm not even sure that you or I could even evaluate that realistically within our 100 years lifetime....

... we can just individually rely on our intellect, intuition and feelings and guess what is best... we are just a kind of animal moving around and not the designer of it all  ...that would be nature or how you wanna call it



I think you mean what i would call "mankind". By "humanity" i was meaning our emotional, emphatic nature of our being. "humaneness" would be a synonym.
All other things you said are right, though.
The central problem here, i  guess, is that we are capable of thinking ahead, evaluating consequences of our planned actions, but we don't really do this, nor we know how to do this. Mankind, i mean...

I don't know if I get you... but imo we are constantly thinking ahead and anticipating the consequences of our actions.

Our whole world is built around that ability. Without it we couldn't make any plans ... and I'm sure every one of us knows how to do that..

Sure, we could do it more perfectly, so that the expectations of our actions match the outcome even more accurately.

But there needs to be an error margin:  will say it's very important to make mistakes, because they are essential for development (as a motivator to learn and to change behavior).

Also we might be absolutely certain about some consequence of a specific action, for example that doing X doesn't make any sense.
But when we do it nevertheless, we sometimes learn that our evaluation was wrong, so we find new paradigms.

In short: sometimes we have to do dumb things in order to learn stuff we wouldn't learn otherwise.  
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January 05, 2023, 11:30:19 PM

But there needs to be an error margin:  will say it's very important to make mistakes, because they are essential for development (as a motivator to learn and to change behavior).
  
I disagree. It's pretty counterintelligent to allow forseeable mistakes. Still, "we" do this more often than not.

EDIT: off for today, a shitty day. There goes some of the Gin i have saved for emergencies.
DCA'd some sats today, though.  Cool

#HODL  Grin
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January 05, 2023, 11:47:43 PM
Last edit: January 05, 2023, 11:57:46 PM by Gachapin
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But there needs to be an error margin:  will say it's very important to make mistakes, because they are essential for development (as a motivator to learn and to change behavior).
  
I disagree. It's pretty counterintelligent to allow forseeable mistakes. Still, "we" do this more often than not.

In general that's likely. But I would be very careful not to make absolute assertions. Again, making mistakes (even knowingly) can lead to very positive outcomes or very important learning motivations.

And when I say knowingly... sometimes we just think we "know" something is a foreseeable mistake, but we might just be wrong about it and in reality it's no mistake.

Just an example:
many years ago I was 100% sure that not selling my Bitcoin after making the first 5x or 10x was absolutely a mistake.  
Today I think it was one of the best decisions in my life.  Where would I be now without making that "mistake"...

I would say making mistakes (even knowingly) from time to time might be part of a kind of natural intelligence, or maybe you could call irrational or non-linear intelligence of natural evolution. Like a mutation that brings novelty in the world of living beings.



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January 05, 2023, 11:51:33 PM

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This is all you need to know.



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January 06, 2023, 12:00:57 AM

But there needs to be an error margin:  will say it's very important to make mistakes, because they are essential for development (as a motivator to learn and to change behavior).
  
I disagree. It's pretty counterintelligent to allow forseeable mistakes. Still, "we" do this more often than not.

In general that's likely. But I would be very careful not to make absolute assertions. Again, making mistakes (even knowingly) can lead to very positive outcomes or very important learning motivations.

And when I say knowingly... sometimes we just think we "know" something is a foreseeable mistake, but we might just be wrong about it and in reality it's no mistake.

Just an example:
many years ago I was 100% sure that not selling my Bitcoin after making the first 5x or 10x was absolutely a mistake.  
Today I think it was one of the best decisions in my life.  Where would I be now without making that "mistake"...

I would say making mistakes (even knowingly) from time to time might be part of a kind of natural intelligence, or maybe you could call irrational or non linear intelligence of natural evolution. Like a mutation that brings novelty in the world of living beings.





Glad that i have read this before shutting the computer down.

If you think it was the best decision of your life, it's not a mistake.
Your only mistake was thinking it was a mistake (for some years).
A bigger mistake would have been to sell in doubt at a later time, imo.

gn
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January 06, 2023, 12:01:20 AM


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January 06, 2023, 12:46:19 AM
Last edit: January 06, 2023, 04:25:39 AM by Biodom
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But there needs to be an error margin:  will say it's very important to make mistakes, because they are essential for development (as a motivator to learn and to change behavior).
  
I disagree. It's pretty counterintelligent to allow forseeable mistakes. Still, "we" do this more often than not.

In general that's likely. But I would be very careful not to make absolute assertions. Again, making mistakes (even knowingly) can lead to very positive outcomes or very important learning motivations.

And when I say knowingly... sometimes we just think we "know" something is a foreseeable mistake, but we might just be wrong about it and in reality it's no mistake.

Just an example:
many years ago I was 100% sure that not selling my Bitcoin after making the first 5x or 10x was absolutely a mistake.  
Today I think it was one of the best decisions in my life.  Where would I be now without making that "mistake"...

I would say making mistakes (even knowingly) from time to time might be part of a kind of natural intelligence, or maybe you could call irrational or non-linear intelligence of natural evolution. Like a mutation that brings novelty in the world of living beings.


Nicely put, although some situations (not bitcoin) are so complex that you cannot really know which way the situation would develop, so any decision might just be randomly right or wrong.
We simply have a 'survivorship' bias.
There are many examples in evolution, markets, etc that look like, basically, a random walk.
George Soros made a famous $1 bil profit on a single trade by shorting British pound and almost everyone in the investment world knows about it.
However, if they wanted, British government could have ruined that trade, just as US stopped Hunt brothers from cornering silver (by just slightly changing some rules in the middle of the "game").
They (British) probably did not care about a single billion that much.
In another example, Nick Leeson piled up $1 bil in losses and ruined his parent company (Barings Bank). One of the reasons of those losses was an earthquake in Japan; he was an over-leveraged long...and there you go. If no earthquake, maybe we would be reading about the most famous trader Nick Leeson having foundations, etc. This story was depicted in "Rogue Trader"-I enjoyed it quite a bit.
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January 06, 2023, 12:53:59 AM

It do be like that....



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January 06, 2023, 01:01:18 AM


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January 06, 2023, 02:01:17 AM


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January 06, 2023, 02:16:53 AM

This has to be one of the most stable periods in Bitcoin’s existence. When FTX went down Bitcoin was at $16,850. It’s now sitting at $16,815 and has barely had any movement since then. This signals to me that something big is going on behind the scenes. There has to be some large entity scooping up massive amounts of BTC right now. Maybe this is the reason for the Silbert delay. Seems like a good trade to follow…
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January 06, 2023, 02:18:59 AM
Last edit: January 06, 2023, 02:29:25 AM by Gachapin

But there needs to be an error margin:  will say it's very important to make mistakes, because they are essential for development (as a motivator to learn and to change behavior).
  
I disagree. It's pretty counterintelligent to allow forseeable mistakes. Still, "we" do this more often than not.

In general that's likely. But I would be very careful not to make absolute assertions. Again, making mistakes (even knowingly) can lead to very positive outcomes or very important learning motivations.

And when I say knowingly... sometimes we just think we "know" something is a foreseeable mistake, but we might just be wrong about it and in reality it's no mistake.

Just an example:
many years ago I was 100% sure that not selling my Bitcoin after making the first 5x or 10x was absolutely a mistake.  
Today I think it was one of the best decisions in my life.  Where would I be now without making that "mistake"...

I would say making mistakes (even knowingly) from time to time might be part of a kind of natural intelligence, or maybe you could call irrational or non-linear intelligence of natural evolution. Like a mutation that brings novelty in the world of living beings.


Nicely put, although some situations (not bitcoin) are so complex that you cannot really know which way the situation would develop, so any decision might just be randomly right or wrong.
We simply have a 'survivorship' bias.
There are many examples in evolution, markets, etc that look like, basically, a random walk.
Geoge Soros made a famous $1 bil profit in a single trade by shorting british pound and almost everyone in the investment world knows about it.
However, if they wanted, British government could have ruined that trade, just as US stopped Hunt brothers from cornering silver (by just slightly changing some rules in the middle of the "game").
They (British) probably did not care about a single billion that much.
In another example, Nick Leeson piled up $1 bil in losses and ruined his parent company (Barings Bank). One of the reasons of those was that there was an earthquake in Japan, he was over-leveraged long...and there you go. If no earthquake, maybe we would be reading about the most famous trader Nick Leeson having foundations, etc. This story was depicted in "Rogue Trader"-I enjoyed it quite a bit.

I agree.  Most of the time processes are complex so that the randomness comes predominantly from the complexity.  A consciously right or wrong decision is not the important factor in these cases as the outcome has less to do with that decision.  
Or let's say in these cases the "ability" to make mistakes is not so important.

For the cases of more simpler or untangled circumstances the entropy which is introduced by making mistakes probably has a heavier impact on the development of an situation.

Interestingly, in these cases the actor also gets a stronger feedback of his decision (as it has more impact on the outcome), so the learning effect is stronger.  


...blabla.. don't even know if it's worth to write this post as it's probably almost the same what you wrote
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January 06, 2023, 02:23:56 AM

This has to be one of the most stable periods in Bitcoin’s existence. When FTX went down Bitcoin was at $16,850. It’s now sitting at $16,815 and has barely had any movement since then. This signals to me that something big is going on behind the scenes. There has to be some large entity scooping up massive amounts of BTC right now. Maybe this is the reason for the Silbert delay. Seems like a good trade to follow…

Could be.  Problem is the volume charts are not very reliable as they only show a portion of the market.
So everyone could also well be waiting on the sidelines for a move down or up to buy the cycle low or a potential uptrend.
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January 06, 2023, 02:31:59 AM
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January 06, 2023, 03:01:20 AM


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