Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

My initial impression of that billboard was:


>>>>>>".....it doesn't look good.

It looks violent....." <<<<<

With that translation.. the contents make more sense to me.. and I don't really disagree with the basic message... even though the implications regarding how does any of us get to "HODL" status, seems to be more than a minor detail... Yes, the idea of HOLD.. implies buy and accumulate and it even implies not to sell..

but yeah, still nuance.


but yeah, the devil is in the details


but yeah, many of us (and perhaps an overwhelming majority) are not born with a silver spoon in our mouths, and even if we are "born with a silver spoon" we likely need to be able to get from a point in which we have little to no bitcoin into a point of having "enough bitcoin."  

It should go without saying that the point of "halving enough bitcoin" is not the same for everyone, yet from my point of view, it does not hurt to repeatedly talk about "how much bitcoin is enough"....


the essence of the battle  (Perhaps, somewhat of an internal/existential battle?)..


How much?

Define being rich…
HODLing to gain more Fiat?
Naaaaah, that’s not the way.

Of course, in my years in bitcoin, I have frequently been disagreeable to any ideas that attempt to refuse to consider the value of fiat when figuring out the value of bitcoin.. and for sure, we have in the ballpark of less than 1% bitcoin adoption, and I would argue that even within those who have bought some bitcoin, many of them are underallocated to bitcoin in terms of how they might be thinking about how to hold bitcoin.. (of course there are folks who are overallocated to bitcoin, too.. sometimes referred to as hoarders.. but overallocation versus hoarding is a matter of degree, no?.. and from my point of view the hoarders/overallocated ones are not really representative of those who hold/are invested in bitcoin) and so part of the difficulties in trying to flesh out these concepts includes the other fact that normie newbies who are coming into bitcoin (whether starting out as no coiners, precoiners or low coiners), do not necessarily need to invest a lot into bitcoin in order to experience the hedging benefits of being able to profit and potentially become rich as fuck from investing into bitcoin and they might not even need to take a lot of risks, in terms of how much of their total investment portfolio that they put into bitcoin as compared with other assets that they might have in their investment portfolio.

No matter what, it is likely that we have to value bitcoin in terms of something, and it seems a wee bit retarded, or maybe detached from reality, if we just value bitcoin in terms of itself, even though their is a bit of abstraction if we might value bitcoin in terms of deferred gratification which is to value future self in comparison to present self, so then in that sense, one BTC (or even a number of satoshis) today is quite likely to have more power and value in the future in terms of what it might get.. whether we are referring to purchasing power or other ways to assess its future value as compared to its present value.

So then part of the key to becoming richie relatively speaking from dee cornz is to figure out the fine balancing spot regarding how much to be sufficiently aggressive/assertive without ending up recking ur lil selfie. hahahahahaha  Need I say more?  Don't be too whimpy, either.. hahahahahaha looking at you Biodom.

Define being rich…
HODLing to gain more Fiat?
Naaaaah, that’s not the way.

you always go poor
with inflational fiat
say it isn't so

#HODLSLEEP

So yes..

Gotta agree with this one.

We have a known variable.

Fiat is going to lose value... but that still does not answer any question beyond spending your fiat before anything that will be losing less fast.

when 26k?

Soon^tm

[1714283809]

1714283809

[1714283809]

1714283809

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OgNasty]

"Associated Press
Ukraine's leader gives qualified support for China proposal"

this could be a very good white swan event coming soon.

I think it would be a good event for all of mankind.  This war has gone way too far and I feel like our leaders are turning into warmongers.

Bitcoin has held up well through all this chaos even as traditional markets are breaking down.  That's a good sign for now and hopefully the "cycle" continues to overpower global investment conditions.  It would be pretty nuts if traditional markets and real estate all fell while Bitcoin saw another boom cycle.  It's almost hard to believe it could be possible, as we would all be in very good positions to invest in traditional assets.

[Lainta]

NEW: Over 980,000 addresses holding 1+ #Bitcoin    😱 🚀

https://twitter.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1629160990574084097?t=otRMLCm_d-tvWrCtR7uUYg&s=19

[Gachapin]

"Associated Press
Ukraine's leader gives qualified support for China proposal"

this could be a very good white swan event coming soon.

I think it would be a good event for all of mankind.  This war has gone way too far and I feel like our leaders are turning into warmongers.

Bitcoin has held up well through all this chaos even as traditional markets are breaking down.  That's a good sign for now and hopefully the "cycle" continues to overpower global investment conditions.  It would be pretty nuts if traditional markets and real estate all fell while Bitcoin saw another boom cycle.  It's almost hard to believe it could be possible, as we would all be in very good positions to invest in traditional assets.

maybe I invest a little bit  ... but for all these traditional investments you need middlemen or someone else to secure your property.

I rather have 1$ in a property that I own 100%, that is portable and non-confiscatable than having 10$ in a property that is only mine as long as someone grants me the permission... fuck them I'm sailing the ocean with BTC or going down with the ship

[AverageGlabella]

Bitcoin has held up well through all this chaos even as traditional markets are breaking down.  That's a good sign for now and hopefully the "cycle" continues to overpower global investment conditions.  It would be pretty nuts if traditional markets and real estate all fell while Bitcoin saw another boom cycle.  It's almost hard to believe it could be possible, as we would all be in very good positions to invest in traditional assets.

If btc has a boom/bull run despite what is happening in Ukraine and all other markets continue to fall then btc will prove that it is the superior currency NOT investment but currency. You do not want to use a currency that is unstable in war because historically people have always been at war. If btc can avoid falling while every other investment fund drops we will prove that btc can be trusted even when hardship occurs. It will increase the adoption because people will believe in btc more because they can secure their futures more then the dollar and they can take their money and spend it when they want to instead with Russian currency they suspended withdrawals at the start of the war which left people hungry. That will never happen with btc because you are the bank.

[philipma1957]

Bitcoin has held up well through all this chaos even as traditional markets are breaking down.  That's a good sign for now and hopefully the "cycle" continues to overpower global investment conditions.  It would be pretty nuts if traditional markets and real estate all fell while Bitcoin saw another boom cycle.  It's almost hard to believe it could be possible, as we would all be in very good positions to invest in traditional assets.

If btc has a boom/bull run despite what is happening in Ukraine and all other markets continue to fall then btc will prove that it is the superior currency NOT investment but currency. You do not want to use a currency that is unstable in war because historically people have always been at war. If btc can avoid falling while every other investment fund drops we will prove that btc can be trusted even when hardship occurs. It will increase the adoption because people will believe in btc more because they can secure their futures more then the dollar and they can take their money and spend it when they want to instead with Russian currency they suspended withdrawals at the start of the war which left people hungry. That will never happen with btc because you are the bank.

I can say this post war economy usually means a boom.

So the end of the Ukraine vs Russia war should e a nice boost for the worlds economy.  Also both Ukrainians and Russians will not be suffering the pains of war.

To anylize  how well btc did since the war started last feb 2022 here are your numbers.

dollar lost  7-10%
gold   lost  3-5%
silver lost 10-12%
btc    lost  40% as it was 39k in feb 2022

but if you want to say it had suffered a separate attack due to the luna scandal you could use a later date set

say June 2022 then btc looks could.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Those "new kids" on bitcoin block, Ordinals and Stacks (running smart contracts on bitcoin)...bullish or neutral to bitcoin's value long term?

Generally bullish.. given the available answers that you provided.

But is it any kind of surprise?

Not really.

We already should have known that a lot of value (if not all monetary value) is going to flow into bitcoin and bitcoin is going to be there as a gravitation point.. even if we might not know details regarding how some of this might play out.

Another thing is that the various ways that we might consider value.. including the $900 Trillion or so that is currently considered as various ways that monetary value is held is likely to increase.. perhaps double/triple or even a magnitude or more in today's dollars (so I am not even referring to value increasing merely due to inflation).

The idea that you could inscribe something on each satoshi is kind of fascinating.
I am not buying Stacks into a huge pump, but have some from 2017, totally forgot about them in the last year or two.

Maybe it is worth buying a couple of early ordinals...they might have value in 20-50 years or even earlier...i saw an original iphone being sold for $63K recently...could be same thing or even more...a collectible that is forever inscribed on the bitcoin blockchain.

IMHO, regardless of what 'conservative' bitcoiners say, this could be good for bitcoin's value (as an additional layer of such value).

Overall I agree with you, but I could give less than two shits about personally collecting either ordinals or participating in inscriptions, even though surely there are a lot creative ways this is happening, and surely there could be worse ways to store some of your sats... and if you think about it, down the road there could be some value in terms of some of the techology that comes from being able to see which number satoshis might be involved in various transactions.. or some of the number of satoshis that you might already hold. without actually realizing some of their origins.. so even if you hold some satoshis that you had recently acquired, you might not realize that they might have even earlier roots.. but you had not traced them back... in which blocks were the 200 billion satoshis that you already hold (presuming you hold them on your own wallet), and if you had already transacted quite a bit in bitcoin, then the satoshis that you hold might be from a variety of sources and some of those satoshis might have earlier blocks in terms of when they were initially mined... like collecting pennies and then looking at the date on each of them.. and every once in a while finding a "rare penny"

No stress in bitcoin,  you don't need to go through Terrible stress over your hard earn money to secure it.

Oh gawd... .

I had to look again at your previous post because I wasn't really sure if you got the bitcoin symbol correct.. and then I noticed that in that earlier post that I cited, you pretty much lifted all of those "definitions" right off of the coingeek website.. perhaps bordering on plagiarism.. because on the face of the matter, it is not really clear that you are citing that source rather than coming up with those definitions yourself.. ...

And, do you really believe that crap..

Consider these deceptive parts of your earlier retarded post:

Ticker symbol

Each digital currency has its own ticker, a shorthand symbol that is used to identify and distinguish it from other digital currencies. The ticker symbol for Bitcoin is BSV, BTC is the ticker symbol for Core Coin, ETH is the ticker symbol for Ethereum.
.....
Bitcoin 101
Bitcoin for beginners requires a good grasp of important terminologies used in the industry. To know more about Bitcoin, head on over to CoinGeek where you’ll find a complete range of Bitcoin-related resources.
https://coingeek.com/bitcoin101/bitcoin-terms-defined-your-complete-bitcoin-and-blockchain-dictionary/

Did you ever believe those things that you had posted?  If you did not believe them, then why would you have had posted them?

If you no longer believe the ideas contained within that post (including using coingeek as if it were a credible source), then I would suggest that you go back to your thread and you create a post to either admit how dumb that you were (or maybe that you continue to be.. and perhaps lock the thread.. unless there is some way that it could be cleaned up by your confessing and redeeming your ways.. I don't claim to be any kind of expert in regards to how to fix dumb (whether previously dumb or continued dumb - and hey I am somewhat receptive to various forums of ways that people are not smart.. so I don't really have a problem with dumbness if there are attempts to fix it)..... and apologize for making such previously greatly retarded post.. and sure, use your own words... .. but you should attempt to acknowledge that you were not (and perhaps continue to not be) in any kind of position to be giving advice about definitions related to bitcoin and to admit that you have to spend more time learning in regard to what bitcoin is, in order that you do not deceive (whether intentional or by accident) forum members (or other persons in the public).

[AverageGlabella]

I can say this post war economy usually means a boom.

So the end of the Ukraine vs Russia war should e a nice boost for the worlds economy.  Also both Ukrainians and Russians will not be suffering the pains of war.

To anylize  how well btc did since the war started last feb here are your numbers.

dollar lost  7-10%
gold   lost  3-5%
silver lost 10-12%

Usually post war booms are the countries which are manufacturing for the war. After the world wars Germany saw the biggest boom in industry because they were manufacturing tanks and now they have some of the best engineering in the world. Russia occupies a large part of Ukraine and I am not sure how much manufacturing they are doing but Europe are supplying Ukraine with equipment so Europe might see a large boom but that helps fiat and not btc. The USA have not been helping as much as Europe have and I cannot see the dollar booming. I wonder how many Russians have used btc as a alternative because they could not get their funds out of the banks I think that is what will cause a btc boom if people continue using btc after the war.

[Volgastallion]

I can say this post war economy usually means a boom.

So the end of the Ukraine vs Russia war should e a nice boost for the worlds economy.  Also both Ukrainians and Russians will not be suffering the pains of war.

To anylize  how well btc did since the war started last feb 2022 here are your numbers.

dollar lost  7-10%
gold   lost  3-5%
silver lost 10-12%
btc    lost  40% as it was 39k in feb 2022

but if you want to say it had suffered a separate attack due to the luna scandal you could use a later date set

say June 2022 then btc looks could.

Man you are seeing a photo and not the movie.

That doesnt have neither to do with the war, the war its the excuses who make the politics to hide his disaster in term of economical management. Dolar lost because print a lot of money but they are gonna say you, "ohh the Covid and the war is making this".  Dont fall into the bait.

Post wars booms are for the winners and a big junk of debt for the rest, like in "Marshalls Plan". But you need that money to recover.

[JayJuanGee]

100k by May?

To some extent..... I appreciate your stubbornness.


hahahahaha


Kind of...




It seems like a quasi-delusional form of stubbornness.

 

edited out]

Frankly, I don't wanna spoil the party with my negativity (see JJG, I'm clear about it just for you) but I actually doubt tptb want a high Bitcoin price just yet

Of course, even though Torque posts some interesting provocations, he is wrong about any part in which he might imply that TBTB actually want BTC prices to go up.

For sure the powers that be are coping and trying to figure out how they can maintain some kind of role within such a system that seems to be somewhat out of their control.. and it is not the first thing out of their control, so many times when certain societal dynamics (economic, political etc) are out their control, they still like to make it seem as if they are in control... those fucks... and sure, I am not even claiming that they might not be able to control some aspects of bitcoin and other matters.. and more likely to have those abilities in the short term... .. so yeah, sometimes there is no choice but to "let it run" hot for a while because it is difficult to fight the momentum.

I would love to see some forks or airdrops... I love free money to buy moa BTC

That sounds scary.. yet I am not going to proclaim that such things (forks/airdrops) might not happen.. when TPTB are desperate.. it might not play out very well.. even for HODLers...

I would rather NOT become an actual casualty.. if possible..

I mean think about it..

On a personal level, some of us might be getting older than others, and sure it is all fine and dandy to have some deferred gratification and even to fight in a few wars (battles) for the story, but sometimes, we might not have enough youth or energy to really be able to survive such wars and battles and some of us would like to enjoy some of the fruits of our already exercised deferred gratification.. while we still have enough youth and energy to actually enjoy some of those kinds of things.

looks like we go back into the 22k range soon

$23k flat has already been struck as I type this post around 2.5 hours ago (and at about the time that you were making your post).. .. .. so yeah.. seems pretty likely and will there be support in the $22ks or are we going lower?  50/50 odds?  or something else? 

Anyone got a coin to toss?.. hahahahaha..

.... reminds me of a funny comment that Matt Odell made on the rabbit hole recap podcast yesterday.. He said that the plural of coin is coin... hahahahaha.. and he kind of let it go as a joke.. but it is a pretty good one... just keep saying it.. no need to say coins anymore.. just say coin.. whether talking in the singular or in the plural..

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

when 26k?

I did a tiny bit of research this morning and I noticed that on Jan 5th a previously hidden sunspot, AR3182 - which was making a lot of noise on the other side of the sun,  unleashed an X-class solar flare as it rotated into view on the eastern limb of the solar disc.  As it traversed the sun it unleashed two more X-class flares directed at earth on Jan 9th and 10th.  These flares result in massive amounts of radiation which, if earth-directed cause radio blackouts, grid disturbances, damage to orbiting satellites (as well as being serious threat to orbiting astronauts), changes to earth's magnetic field and long-term auroras in the upper atmosphere.
 Solar activity is on the increase and there is a good change of x-flares this weekend.  Help is on the way.

Jupiter9?  Is that uie-pooie?  It's been a while, and "we" have missed you.

This war has gone way too far and I feel like have just come to realize our leaders are turning into warmongers.

Oh gawd OgNasty.   

I fixed the above to make you look more smartie-panties. #nohomo

 

 

Bitcoin has held up well through all this chaos even as traditional markets are breaking down.  That's a good sign for now and hopefully the "cycle" continues to overpower global investment conditions.  It would be pretty nuts if traditional markets and real estate all fell while Bitcoin saw another boom cycle.  It's almost hard to believe it could be possible, as we would all be in very good positions to invest in traditional assets.

I cannot disagree with you about the reality of this part, even if it comes off as a wee bit koo-koo and like a real out of touch long shot, it is likely NOT as much of a long shot as some folks might consider it to be.. maybe even higher than 3-5% odds.. perhaps?  Maybe I am being too generous in my getting caught up in the fantasy, too?

"Associated Press
Ukraine's leader gives qualified support for China proposal"

this could be a very good white swan event coming soon.

I think it would be a good event for all of mankind.  This war has gone way too far and I feel like our leaders are turning into warmongers.

Bitcoin has held up well through all this chaos even as traditional markets are breaking down.  That's a good sign for now and hopefully the "cycle" continues to overpower global investment conditions.  It would be pretty nuts if traditional markets and real estate all fell while Bitcoin saw another boom cycle.  It's almost hard to believe it could be possible, as we would all be in very good positions to invest in traditional assets.

maybe I invest a little bit  ... but for all these traditional investments you need middlemen or someone else to secure your property.

I rather have 1$ in a property that I own 100%, that is portable and non-confiscatable than having 10$ in a property that is only mine as long as someone grants me the permission... fuck them I'm sailing the ocean with BTC or going down with the ship

To each his own.  There can be some value in having some footing "on land" even though each of us knows that there is risk with holding that kind of value, so it seems to be a matter of how much to allocate rather than NOT to allocate, but still I don't have any problem if some people would prefer to NOT have any on the ground properties... ..

Let's say that you have $10million in BTC using the 200-week moving average as your evaluation basis, and so that is around 400 BTC.. Whether you have other assets or not, then why should you give very many shits if you put $1 million into property or even half a million and still just have a place to hang out.?. and maybe even property taxes are not very much to have a place that you like and prefer to own rather than rent .. let's say that you have to pay $5k to $10k per year for property taxes and then maybe you have other expenses related to the property that are similar $5k to $10k.

Does that seem like a lot to gamble with?  Yeah, it could be taken away,.. but still life style choices, no?   Your boat could be taken away too, no?  You just keep renting them? what are your options to live outside of the world?  Just get into shitty situations trying to create islands and bullshit like that and speaking of bullshit like that, what happened to Elwar?    Hopefully, he is o.k... but still gotta consider risks and even do you want to get killed because you created something without protections? and/or without sufficient security through obscurity?  Yeah, maybe you are not going to make some of the same mistakes as Elwar in terms of putting himself at personal risks, and I wonder how much he might have lost on that ship business to create a floating seastead.?  and maybe he did not lose money, but seems like a lot of work to attempt to "live outside" of some of the confines of having real property that might exist in jurisdictions in which you might be o.k. with accepting of some of the risks that they can take it and that they are going to charge you rent (taxes).

[LDL]

Just in  "Bitcoin is dead "

The saying "Bitcoin is Dead" has been declared more than 200+ times in the last 5 years, but the happy thing is that Bitcoin is still alive today. An organization called BitStacker revealed this information in a research.
Bitcoin is Dead

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[bitcoinPsycho]

Just in  "Bitcoin is dead "

The saying "Bitcoin is Dead" has been declared more than 200+ times in the last 5 years, but the happy thing is that Bitcoin is still alive today. An organization called BitStacker revealed this information in a research.
Bitcoin is Dead

Oh OK 👍 phew that was close 😅

[Hamza2424]

___SNIP___

Haha dear, are you scared with these stats check out patience..

Increase
Flour = 100%
Electricity = 300%
Chicken= 100%+
Eggs= 75%+
Cooking Oil= 125%+
Fuel= Almost 100%

Maximum Basic needs products are 100%+ or 2x and still increasing. Hope is with Bitcoin as i advised a maximum of my family members and Friends to move savings from Local to BTC (No alts).. With current situation cash is not safe BTC is...   

[OgNasty]

This war has gone way too far and I feel like have just come to realize our leaders are turning into warmongers.

Oh gawd OgNasty.   

I fixed the above to make you look more smartie-panties. #nohomo

 

 

That may have been a bit of a politically correct statement.  In truth, I think Biden is suffering from dementia and him being President is elder abuse.  He's going to likely go down in history as one of the worst US Presidents of all time when this is all over with.  That would probably even be true if he wasn't trying to start World War III.  My true feelings are that Trump was the only President we've had in the last 30 years who wasn't a warmonger, but that sounds a little too crazy...

However, even an incompetent demented liar in the White House won't be able to stop Bitcoin.  This is just another test and hopefully Bitcoin powers through the recession like a champ.  I've been pretty vocal in the past that Bitcoin would suffer in a recession, but I didn't realize the amount of money that we'd print to fight the flu when I was saying that.  In dollar terms, even in a major recession, it's hard to imagine assets getting hit too hard with the money supply growing the way it is.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation