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Question: When will we see a new ATH?
2023 - 56 (21.5%)
2024 - 105 (40.2%)
2025 - 75 (28.7%)
2026 - 4 (1.5%)
2027 - 2 (0.8%)
After 2027 - 5 (1.9%)
Never - 14 (5.4%)
Total Voters: 261

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26119566 times)
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ChartBuddy
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February 01, 2023, 11:01:18 PM


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Biodom
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February 01, 2023, 11:23:02 PM

@jjg..well, $19,798 is pretty much 20K in my book (according to rounding rules), but it is a minor point....that you seem to be awfully sensitive about.

BTW, the average price of btc between Dec 2017 and today is also quite surprising (not!) $20.3K...how does this reflect on DCA vs bulk purchase debate?
Basically, you could have DCAed weekly since 5 years ago (or 260 weeks) and your average would have been more than btc price just a month ago (only 4wk or 1.5% of the putative DCA time).
This shows, in my opinion, that better strategy in bitcoin is to have a large stash of cash and to wait for more than 60-70% decline from the recent ATH, then pounce at once or in a few big "gulps".
Rounding rules? that is not how it works in economics. Either something has hit $20000 or it has not. You cannot round up values rounding up is only done to estimate something but is not used for speculation because it would skew the numbers to much and any speculation or prediction based on rounding up will be greatly wrong even if they have a good argument. Do not round up unless you are estimating small numbers when it is big numbers like 20000 you will be greatly out of any prediction or analysis.

economics? 19798 vs 20000 is about 1.1% difference, so, if you don't perform many additional calculations, approximation is fine.
For example, my thesis was that "If in about 5 years (early 2028) bitcoin is 25.5k (now it is 23k vs 20K in Dec 2017, so a similar small rise with lots of down and up volatility in between), would you be content?"

if you replace 20K by 19798, then the appreciation since Dec 2017 until 23K (which was the price at the time of original post) would be 16.17% vs 15% in my calculation.
Perhaps, i should have wrote $26.7K instead of 25.5K in 2028, but it is still within 5%.
The main point was not the exact number , but how we would perceive the situation if it repeats itself in the next 5 years.
BTW, bitcoin price is not an absolute and it did hit 20K and slightly above on some major exchanges.
@jjg thinks that we somehow made an explicit promise to only quote bitstamp, but I don't acknowledge it (no promise on my part).

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February 01, 2023, 11:30:51 PM

@jjg..sorry, I am too "beat up" at work this week to post numbers, will try to sum it up sometime during the weekend and/or on Fri...
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February 01, 2023, 11:51:26 PM

@jjg..sorry, I am too "beat up" at work this week to post numbers, will try to sum it up sometime during the weekend and/or on Fri...

Yeah well I am prepped for 10 years of sideways motion.

Check what gold did from 1992 to 2001

no reason btc can't do exactly that.

20k-35k for 10 years in a row is certainly one possibility.
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February 02, 2023, 12:01:23 AM


Explanation
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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February 02, 2023, 12:10:06 AM
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20k-35k for 10 years in a row is certainly one possibility.

thanks for killing my buzz man
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1/21000000 , the only math you need to know


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February 02, 2023, 12:42:33 AM

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February 02, 2023, 12:57:09 AM

^^^first try..."Buy by the barrel gorilla ladders?"  Grin  Cheesy

second "ape into bitcoin ladder by the barrel"
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February 02, 2023, 12:59:23 AM



Bitcoin price up $24165.
Ascending upwards like a ladder.
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February 02, 2023, 01:00:59 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

It certainly looks like $24,000 will be broken tonight.  Cool


[...]

Whatever, HODLERS not affected.

Exactly!
Would be huge if we recover to 25000 so soon after breaking into the new year it could really set up the year and we could seriously start talking about a full recovery by the mid or end of the year. Some good news for once.
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February 02, 2023, 01:01:17 AM


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February 02, 2023, 01:09:52 AM

#Bitcoin    is a journey.



https://twitter.com/TheBTCTherapist/status/1620860073735258114?t=mjdqH0t0q_0cCWOQKz4x-Q&s=19
JayJuanGee
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ESG, KYC & AML are attack vectors on Bitcoin


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February 02, 2023, 02:00:06 AM

my dca log

X equals fiat units.

BTC dca
nov 04 >>>>>>>   01x
nov 11  >>>>>>>  02x
nov 18  >>>>>>    03x
nov 25 >>>>>>     04x
dec 02 >>>>>>     05x
dec 09 >>>>>>     06x
dec 16 >>>>>>     07x
dec 23  >>>>>      08x
dec 30 >>>>>>     09x
jan 06  >>>>>>     10x
jan 13  >>>>>>      11x
jan 20  >>>>>>      12x ended my Friday 1x fiat dca

Jan 25 >>>>>>      14x began my 2x weds fiat dca
Feb 01 >>>>>>       16x

From my perspective, it almost looks like someone chasing a train and acting like everything is "fine"..

hahahahahahaha

It is starting to look like the market might need some fresh air here if you're looking at a far enough away chart.  I think it's likely in the short term we see a drop and a serious retest of how low the market is willing to go.  Then maybe we'll be able to break free of this resistance and head up to $30,000 in a flash.  Until that happens, I think $10K is still on the table, as far fetched as it might feel at the moment.  A rejection here back down to the $16K range would look pretty devastating on a chart, so I'm crossing my fingers we don't correct very far.

Yes.. What else is new?  It's called pee pare ur lil selfie for either direction, we are not out of the woods yet... even though it's feeling good at the moment... no meaningful correction since $17k.. and I am sure there are several beartard betters getting nervous because they keep betting for DOWNity that doesn't happen, and they expect to be able to buy on the dip. and the dips are not happening. 

The same is try for all the supposed bulls who had sold BTC in order to buy back lower, and so they may have likely converted to a "buy on the dip" approach, but the price never seems to dip enough to trigger the buys that they should have been already been doing when we had so much time under $20k and they failed refused to buy.. and now those sub $20k prices are looking pretty fucking good...   Yeah.. you should have prepared a wee bit MOAR better for UP, and even though your preparation for DOWNity had been working so great for the past 6 months or whatever, it doesn't seem to be working so well in these times. We should always know that we should be sufficiently/adequately prepared for UP because UP can end up happening in such a way that does not really give any more chances to buy at the earlier low prices, even though there are lot's of normies saying, "anything that goes up must come down... blah blah blah"... seen it a million times in bitcoinlandia, and seen a lot of bitter no coiners develop from their failure/refusal to sufficiently/adequately pee pare their lil selfies for UP..

if they drift under 6% maybe we go flat for March fed rate

Maybe we go flat and maybe we don't?  Doesn't mean that our lil fiend is going to cooperate, does it?  Hopefully peeps are not putting too much weight into whatever desperate governments are doing in terms of their own preparations that include sufficient and adequate quantities of BTC that does not cause them to have to chase the BTC train at some date in which they should have bought more BTC at earlier times, and perhaps they should not have sold BTC with an expectation to buy back lower that may or may not happen.

We are just getting back to the 200-week moving average.. but sure, we are still below it.. so what does that  mean? 

Seems to mean that we are still quite low in our BTC prices, even though we have various desperate government actors (and financial institutions) that would prefer to keep this bad boy down.. which sure they might be able to do it, but I would not bet too much on those kinds of downity or flat circumstances when it comes to king daddy..
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February 02, 2023, 02:24:55 AM

The Bitcoin market continues to show a great deal of strength. Just when it looked like it needed to take a breather and test some support, it starts to rally and jumps up another thousand per BTC. It seems like there is still a great deal of demand for coins and it’s anybody’s guess how long that’s going to last. It is nice to be moving away from $16K though.
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February 02, 2023, 02:47:58 AM

Positions being taken for the 2024 halvening? Could be a humdinger.
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February 02, 2023, 03:01:21 AM


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ESG, KYC & AML are attack vectors on Bitcoin


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February 02, 2023, 03:09:09 AM
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BTC longs vs shorts ratio: longs presently dominant,
but it changes all the time..
https://www.coinglass.com/LongShortRatio
too many CEX remaining...

Yeah, but what does it mean?

Still ranging, wondering if the recent pump has legs? We’re up over 30% in the last month which is pretty significant. What kind of price confirms the start of a new bull market, maybe $30,000?

I’d like to see us break & hold $25,000. Maybe we need a retest of $20,000 to confirm that $15,500 was indeed the bottom.

So many questions but only answered with time. Whatever, HODLERS not affected.

There are a decent number of smart people who are saying that the bottom is likely in, but I am too much of a scaredy cat to make that kind of an assertion.. so yeah.. $30k would be good.. and surely, I have trouble even considering that the bottom is in prior to getting above the 200-week moving average, which is just a little below $25k currently.

I am the kind of guy that you should almost never listen to in terms of suggestions that the bottom is in.. (not that you were exactly asking this here cat.. but hey.. I like to chime in from time to time) because I need way too much confirmation.. so I surely tend to be a lagging indicator... .. likely similar claims that I make (while failing to make any claims) in regards to the opposite price direction tend to be true, too.

It certainly looks like $24,000 will be broken tonight.  Cool

An actual sorcerer in the making.  did you throw a dart with a blindfold on, or was your predictive method less random?   I will admit that we surely are getting a decent amount of ongoing UPpity price pressures, especially since the fed rate announcement.

@jjg thinks that we somehow made an explicit promise to only quote bitstamp, but I don't acknowledge it (no promise on my part).

We refer to bitstamp in these here parts for 1) ease of reference, 2) clarity and perhaps 3) to minimize selective representations of BTC price performance/dynamics.. you dweeb,. and of course, you can refer to whatever you like if you are trying to make some kind of a fair point about what might be happening out there in bitcoinlandia, but if you are trying to spin some kind of bullshit, then it does not help your case if you are employing higher numbers for the mere sake of attempting to look like you are exaggerating less.. or to try to retroactively (or maybe even proactively?) back up your otherwise unsubstantiated claims.

Otherwise, I already responded to your other various points (to the extent you had any), but you did not say hardly shit in response to my points (except deflectively suggesting that I am trying to get you to conform.. blah blah blah) regarding your lack of a system and your seeming to want to retroactively assert that you have some kind of a systematic way of employing BTC buys (presumptively with the goal of establishing a decently strong BTC position) that is even close to as good as DCAing..... especially if we are referring to normies or generally applicable approaches to BTC accumulation..  but you want to just proclaim "BIG gulp" buying of BTC is supposedly possible to accomplish in terms of psychology and finances without giving any kind of guidance regarding how to do it, except perhaps suggesting "just buy BIG gulps whenever it feels like you are at a bottom in the BTC price" - something like 70% or more is how you measure that, right?  or it is just a feeling that the bottom is in.. right?

Where are your details?  I had already suggested that I would give you a budget of $5.2k per year for the last 9 years to work with.. what is so hard about that?  I showed you already how $5,200 per year could be employed through DCA to have gotten you about 45 BTC at $100 per week.. wham bam thank you ma'am.. easy peasy.. at least in the sense of not having to fuck around with trying to figure out complicated things related to BTC price moves, so that is $47k invested into BTC in total.  So when would have you bought with that budget and how would you have done it in a somewhat systematic and straight-forward kind of a way that would have beat DCA?  Go on.  Cooperate, at least a wee widdo moar better than your vague-ass references that everyone knows how to employ a "BIG gulp" buying methodologies that is preferable to DCA.. for sure, right?  You got some specifics with your BIG gulp theory that would not have resulted in either whimpiness or paralysis?  Let's buy 20 BTC and wait because we are too scared to buy anymore?  Is that how you would have done it?  Just wait for the BTC price to go up to $10million, and baaaam .. it all works?  Is that the method you are suggesting?

Waiting......    

@jjg..sorry, I am too "beat up" at work this week to post numbers, will try to sum it up sometime during the weekend and/or on Fri...

Ok... fair enough.  I will hold back on my ongoing assertions that you are NOT cooperating.. for a few days.. if I can resist.. .hahahahha... #nohomo

@jjg..sorry, I am too "beat up" at work this week to post numbers, will try to sum it up sometime during the weekend and/or on Fri...

Yeah well I am prepped for 10 years of sideways motion.

Check what gold did from 1992 to 2001

no reason btc can't do exactly that.

20k-35k for 10 years in a row is certainly one possibility.

Figures..

you seem to be making the same mistake that you made 11 years ago and at various points since then which largely rises t the level of insufficiently and inadequately preparing for UP, but hey.. you do you.   Tongue Tongue Tongue

It certainly looks like $24,000 will be broken tonight.  Cool
[...]
Whatever, HODLERS not affected.
Exactly!
Would be huge if we recover to 25000 so soon after breaking into the new year it could really set up the year and we could seriously start talking about a full recovery by the mid or end of the year. Some good news for once.

Does not appear to be out of the question.. and surely we could spend a bit of time below the 200-week moving average before breaking above it, and there would not necessarily be resistance once we break above the 200-week moving average.. not that I know anything.. but sometimes the momentum of UP will build on itself and breaking above certain points makes it a bit more difficult to get the correction back down to where we had been previously.. not that it is impossible.. but sometimes we end up NOT returning to previous price ranges.. even though some folks speculate that it is inevitable that we will return to earlier prices.. and surely we have witnessed otherwise throughout bitcoin's history... such as breaking above $500 in May 2016 or breaking above $3k in August/September 2017... and other examples too.. but those two were pretty BIG.

Frequently, it can be difficult to see those threshold price points while we are within them (or if they are an actual thing).. until maybe 6 to 18 months.. or perhaps even longer at a later time we are able to see it....
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February 02, 2023, 03:34:49 AM

20k-35k for 10 years in a row is certainly one possibility.

thanks for killing my buzz man

Sorry 😢
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February 02, 2023, 03:44:03 AM
Last edit: February 02, 2023, 07:55:49 AM by sirazimuth





One of These Things......
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