Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[1679313779]

1679313779

[AlcoHoDL]

[...]

It certainly looks like $24,000 will be broken tonight.  

An actual sorcerer in the making.  did you throw a dart with a blindfold on, or was your predictive method less random?   I will admit that we surely are getting a decent amount of ongoing UPpity price pressures, especially since the fed rate announcement.

[...]

I must be a pretty damn lucky blindfolded dart-throwing sorcerer, since price did break $24k... A new AYH, no? And then it dropped a little and is now hovering just under it. What's new?

Nope, no sorcery, luck or the Fed ( ), just this little math thingie:



Sure, this is so localized it may well be Fed-or-whatever-else-induced noise, but it's still fun to comment on and attempt to predict such UPpities...

[Lainta]

Billionaire Charlie Munger: The US should follow the Chinese communist leader's "splendid example" and ban #Bitcoin   

🤡🤡🤡

https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1621117426640506881?t=XE9GE8KvKtni1adAqxWN5A&s=19

[BitcoinBunny]

UK interest rates to 4%

It may not sound like much but with most of the economy being used to near zero rates for over a decade I doubt this will work out well for the economy over the next few years.

I see two outcomes:
1. The higher interest rates will continue to slow down the economy hugely, a downturn in the housing market (which is already happening) with prices going down 30% (price effects are minimal at the moment with many people holding out but eventually things will shift). Rates will thus be cut pretty soon and possibly down back to 0.5% within 2 years. Inflation hopefully disappears and we may even see deflation.

2. People will weather the storm to a certain extent but will expect massive pay increases (we are still having many strikes in the UK). With layoffs in the tech sector especially I can't see this happening but IF salaries do increase inflation will simply not go away and in turn we would need even higher interest rates.


It will be interesting to see if further global events will cause even more problems: Russia either destroying Ukraine completely or giving up. The latter I can't see happening no matter how much the west wants that. Maybe things will escalate even further and give China ideas with Taiwan. China energy demand (due to reopening) leading to higher oil prices.

[nutildah]

Wow a 4 MB block is mined today first time in Bitcoin history... I don't know how that happened but does not seem right.

There must be something missing here, What if someone tries to add much larger jpeg. Can it be exploited?

4 MB is the absolute block size limit. The transaction itself is 99% witness data which can be pruned by nodes.

I posted an article here that explains how it works the other day, guess you didn't see it.

https://read.pourteaux.xyz/p/illegitimate-bitcoin-transactions

The craziest part is the sender appears to have paid a fee of zero.

[bct_ail]

Nope, no sorcery, luck or the Fed ( ), just this little math thingie:



Sure, this is so localized it may well be Fed-or-whatever-else-induced noise, but it's still fun to comment on and attempt to predict such UPpities...

Does this formula have any other meaning than the result is 21*10⁶? Which is, of course, a great number.

So for i =0 I get 10500000 as a result. For i=1 I get 5250000 and so on. So does e.g. 10500000 have any meaning or can anyone continue working with the numbers / this formula? For example make a formula to calculate the mined bitcoin per year?

It would be great if I could scribble all over the blackboards at school. 



Any maths professionals here?

[AverageGlabella]

$25000 by the end of this month? We keep hitting resistance around 23/24000 and we cannot get past that atm. I would feel more comfortable that the bear market will not return if we can hit that $25000

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[xyzzy099]

Nope, no sorcery, luck or the Fed ( ), just this little math thingie:



Sure, this is so localized it may well be Fed-or-whatever-else-induced noise, but it's still fun to comment on and attempt to predict such UPpities...

Does this formula have any other meaning than the result is 21*10⁶? Which is, of course, a great number.

So for i =0 I get 10500000 as a result. For i=1 I get 5250000 and so on. So does e.g. 10500000 have any meaning or can anyone continue working with the numbers / this formula? For example make a formula to calculate the mined bitcoin per year?

It would be great if I could scribble all over the blackboards at school.  

http://twelvebytwelve.net/gwh-images/gwh-00259.jpg

Any maths professionals here?

Well, I am not a maths professional, but...

The purpose of writing it in that form is basically just to show how the halvings work.  There is a halving of the block reward every 210,000 blocks.  The block reward for each block in the ith halving period will be 50/(2^i), and the total of bitcoins generated in that halving period will, of course, be 210,000 * [50/(2^i)].  The sum of coins generated in all halvings will be ~21,000,000 as we all know.

Sorry in advance if I have misunderstood your question.

[philipma1957]

UK interest rates to 4%

It may not sound like much but with most of the economy being used to near zero rates for over a decade I doubt this will work out well for the economy over the next few years.

I see two outcomes:
1. The higher interest rates will continue to slow down the economy hugely, a downturn in the housing market (which is already happening) with prices going down 30% (price effects are minimal at the moment with many people holding out but eventually things will shift). Rates will thus be cut pretty soon and possibly down back to 0.5% within 2 years. Inflation hopefully disappears and we may even see deflation.

2. People will weather the storm to a certain extent but will expect massive pay increases (we are still having many strikes in the UK). With layoffs in the tech sector especially I can't see this happening but IF salaries do increase inflation will simply not go away and in turn we would need even higher interest rates.


It will be interesting to see if further global events will cause even more problems: Russia either destroying Ukraine completely or giving up. The latter I can't see happening no matter how much the west wants that. Maybe things will escalate even further and give China ideas with Taiwan. China energy demand (due to reopening) leading to higher oil prices.

the rates act like a wealth transfer.


Here in the USA we are over 4 closer ro 4.5%

So a large fund in the USA is available to US government worker.  "G fund tsp" https://www.tsp.gov/funds-individual/g-fund/

It is based on bond rates and is paying about 4%. There is about 300 billion in it . It was paying 1.2% Dec 2021.

so 2.8% is 7.4 billion a year more  in interest.

from a google search :

"How much does the US have in savings accounts?
How much does the average household have in savings? While the median bank account balance is $5,300, according to the latest SCF data, the average — or mean — balance is actually much higher, at $41,600."


2.8% of 41600 = 1165 a year


So two types above are getting money moved to them here in the states.


While apple stock holders and Tesla stock holders are getting wealth taken from them.


this swing has to happen every once in a while.

go back and look at rates from 1973 to 1997 they were really high.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[AlcoHoDL]

Nope, no sorcery, luck or the Fed ( ), just this little math thingie:



Sure, this is so localized it may well be Fed-or-whatever-else-induced noise, but it's still fun to comment on and attempt to predict such UPpities...

Does this formula have any other meaning than the result is 21*10⁶? Which is, of course, a great number.

[...]

Note the term 50 / 2ⁱ.

Here you can watch Saylor educating Laura about this.

[Richy_T]

I hope there won't be the same 2017 discussion about spam transactions and blocksize again  
but then... maybe we also get another big fork aka free money again .... I'd say bring it on  

Yeah, that bullshit data cost 1/4 as much per byte as the actual useful part of the transaction. Well done, I guess.

A costly move it won't be affordable to do this a lot.

Don't worry, Core got em covered.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BobLawblaw]

I've had some time to sleep and think on this, now, and the more I think about it, I'm just left terrified about the implications this ordinal stuff has for Bitcoin.

I see it as a very real existential threat.

I sincerely hope I am dead wrong.

[xhomerx10]

I've had some time to sleep and think on this, now, and the more I think about it, I'm just left terrified about the implications this ordinal stuff has for Bitcoin.

I see it as a very real existential threat.

I sincerely hope I am dead wrong.

 Look on the bright side; it means more bitcoin for philipma1957.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Torque]

I've had some time to sleep and think on this, now, and the more I think about it, I'm just left terrified about the implications this ordinal stuff has for Bitcoin.

I see it as a very real existential threat.

I sincerely hope I am dead wrong.

Nah, it's just the whales setting up another future shitstorm to use as a rug pull for another bull run. They always have to have something in their back pocket.

"Bitcoin crashes on fears of government ban!"

"Bitcoin crashes due to another fork threat!"

Blah blah blah. Same shit, different year.  

[BobLawblaw]

"Bitcoin crashes on fears of government ban!"
"Bitcoin crashes due to another fork threat!"
Blah blah blah. Some shit, different year.  

"Bitcoin crashes due to child pornography permanently written into the blockchain"

I want no part of any of that.

[Torque]

"Bitcoin crashes on fears of government ban!"
"Bitcoin crashes due to another fork threat!"
Blah blah blah. Some shit, different year.  

"Bitcoin crashes due to child pornography permanently written into the blockchain"

I want no part of any of that.

Yep, I first thought of that too. They always have to plant the seeds early.

Four Horsemen of the Infocalypse, FTW.

The funny thing though, we're now hip to their bullshit game. Can see it coming from a mile away.