Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Macadonian]

The next two hours we should break the $25,00 resistance! For the 2nd time in a couple of weeks. I think we might push on from here without dropping back down we might finally be able to challenge the $30,000 price. We just need more banks to fail in the next couple of days and it should continue rising. I do not know why multiple banks are failing in the same week but I hope it continues for the price of Bitcoin!

[BitcoinBunny]

Video shows Russian jet dumping fuel on US Reaper drone during 'reckless' interception over Black Sea
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/video-shows-moment-russian-fighter-102100949.html

Pretty good job by that Russian fighter pilot. Like a reverse Top Gun Maverick.  

Top Gun: Dmitri

American officials have accused the Russian pilots of flying in a "reckless, environmentally unsound and unprofessional manner".

They also said a Chinese weather balloon was an alien spacecraft.
 

[pixie85]

The next two hours we should break the $25,00 resistance! For the 2nd time in a couple of weeks. I think we might push on from here without dropping back down we might finally be able to challenge the $30,000 price. We just need more banks to fail in the next couple of days and it should continue rising. I do not know why multiple banks are failing in the same week but I hope it continues for the price of Bitcoin!

Really? It broke 25000 5 hours ago. It also broke it yesterday and the day before. Looking at bitfinex right now:
26529 on March 14,
25324 March 15,
25102 today.

Going above 25 is easy. Staying there for more than a day is the hard part

Pretty good job by that Russian fighter pilot. Like a reverse Top Gun Maverick.  

He was good up until the moment he got to close and clipped his rotor.

[Macadonian]

The next two hours we should break the $25,00 resistance! For the 2nd time in a couple of weeks. I think we might push on from here without dropping back down we might finally be able to challenge the $30,000 price. We just need more banks to fail in the next couple of days and it should continue rising. I do not know why multiple banks are failing in the same week but I hope it continues for the price of Bitcoin!

Really? It broke 25000 5 hours ago. It also broke it yesterday and the day before. Looking at bitfinex right now:
26529 on March 14,
25324 March 15,
25102 today.

Going above 25 is easy. Staying there for more than a day is the hard part

I know it is the hard part and I know we have breached $25,000 a few times in the last couple of weeks but we did not have several banks failing and being all over the news then. I think if we get above it again for the 2nd time in 24 hours we should stay above it because that is a sign of people dropping their bearish attitude and buying more Bitcoin.

[Gachapin]

maybe it's too early to talk about 30k, but...

since many turned bearish when the 30k level was lost, I expect many to turn bullish, when we reach it again..

going from 30k to 40k could be way easier than going vom 20k to 30k.  And I don't mean the obvious +33% vs + 50%, but sentiment-wise.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitcoinBunny]

maybe it's too early to talk about 30k, but...

since many turned bearish when the 30k level was lost, I expect many to turn bullish, when we reach it again..

going from 30k to 40k could be way easier than going vom 20k to 30k.  And I don't mean the obvious +33% vs + 50%, but sentiment-wise.

For sure, many bought in when Musk started to buy BTC in the $30,000s

When they see that price again they will fomo in again I bet.

[Gachapin]

maybe it's too early to talk about 30k, but...

since many turned bearish when the 30k level was lost, I expect many to turn bullish, when we reach it again..

going from 30k to 40k could be way easier than going vom 20k to 30k.  And I don't mean the obvious +33% vs + 50%, but sentiment-wise.

For sure, many bought in when Musk started to buy BTC in the $30,000s

When they see that price again they will fomo in again I bet.

a bit of a simple minded scenario:

if we went by last cycle's performance and its ratios, price would hit 45k by June and after that stay between 45k and 25k for another 16 months..

[darkangel11]

a bit of a simple minded scenario:

if we went by last cycle's performance and its ratios, price would hit 45k by June and after that stay between 45k and 25k for another 16 months..

Fine, but why would bitcoin follow last bear market ratios if it did not follow them in the bull market and in the early stages of the bear?
IMO bitcoin's bottom would have been somewhere above 20k if not for the scammers and their impact.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[goldkingcoiner]

Video shows Russian jet dumping fuel on US Reaper drone during 'reckless' interception over Black Sea
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/video-shows-moment-russian-fighter-102100949.html

Pretty good job by that Russian fighter pilot. Like a reverse Top Gun Maverick.  

Top Gun: Dmitri

American officials have accused the Russian pilots of flying in a "reckless, environmentally unsound and unprofessional manner".

They also said a Chinese weather balloon was an alien spacecraft.
 

Not sure what you would consider to be a "good job" but it took him 19 tries and he crashed into the drone in the end anyway. The fuel did absolutely nothing except contaminate thousands of fish.

Enjoy your sushi.

[BitcoinBunny]

Video shows Russian jet dumping fuel on US Reaper drone during 'reckless' interception over Black Sea
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/video-shows-moment-russian-fighter-102100949.html

Pretty good job by that Russian fighter pilot. Like a reverse Top Gun Maverick.  

Top Gun: Dmitri

American officials have accused the Russian pilots of flying in a "reckless, environmentally unsound and unprofessional manner".

They also said a Chinese weather balloon was an alien spacecraft.
 

Not sure what you would consider to be a "good job" but it took him 19 tries and he crashed into the drone in the end anyway. The fuel did absolutely nothing except contaminate thousands of fish.

Enjoy your sushi.

He landed, the drone didn't.

Presumably the altitude would have meant the fuel would have evaporated anyway.
Like what happens with fuel dumps by almost any jet whether military or not done on a frequent basis.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[macson]

where "meme"

The next two hours we should break the $25,00 resistance! For the 2nd time in a couple of weeks. I think we might push on from here without dropping back down we might finally be able to challenge the $30,000 price. We just need more banks to fail in the next couple of days and it should continue rising. I do not know why multiple banks are failing in the same week but I hope it continues for the price of Bitcoin!

what is happening to banks right now is a domino effect and it looks like it will stay like this for the next few days, rumors about the decline in share prices of many banks have been heard since last January.  we still have a hard time predicting the market but it is very likely that bitcoin will not drop below $20k again.

[philipma1957]

So CPI

was announced on pi day at 0.4 for Feb and 6.0 for Year.

I wonder if they:

Do 0.00, 0.25, 0.50 on March 22 .

Waiting for that number and for bailout results for the next bank to fail.

[dragonvslinux]

maybe it's too early to talk about 30k, but...

since many turned bearish when the 30k level was lost, I expect many to turn bullish, when we reach it again..

Have thought and said this for a while. It's similar to the bearish sentiment once $6K broke in 2018, as well as the bullish when it went back above in 2019.
Mainly as most people were expecting a rejection from $6K and going back to around $3-4K, similar to 2015 bear market, but obviously never happened.

going from 30k to 40k could be way easier than going vom 20k to 30k.  And I don't mean the obvious +33% vs + 50%, but sentiment-wise.

Also based on volume. There's roughly twice as much volume that has been traded between $15K-$25K than $30K-$40K.
It does slightly increase from $30K up to $40K, but not considerably. Then there's a bit of a gap until around $48K...

if we went by last cycle's performance and its ratios, price would hit 45k by June and after that stay between 45k and 25k for another 16 months..

I did the calculation based on % retrace and it's more like $50K/$52K with a general target of $48.5K, for now at least (based on 2023 low to ATH)
Ignoring the % retrace another 4.4x move from the lows (like in 2019) would actually be more like $69K.
Hence I prefer the calculation of retracing around 62% from ATH, rather than 100%.

[Gachapin]

a bit of a simple minded scenario:

if we went by last cycle's performance and its ratios, price would hit 45k by June and after that stay between 45k and 25k for another 16 months..

Fine, but why would bitcoin follow last bear market ratios if it did not follow them in the bull market and in the early stages of the bear?  

For an answer, please refer to the first part of my post  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[God Of Thunder]

https://twitter.com/WalkerAmerica/status/1636042419396550657

[Gachapin]

if we went by last cycle's performance and its ratios, price would hit 45k by June and after that stay between 45k and 25k for another 16 months..

I did the calculation based on % retrace and it's more like $50K/$52K with a general target of $48.5K, for now at least (based on 2023 low to ATH)
Ignoring the % retrace another 4.4x move from the lows (like in 2019) would actually be more like $69K.
Hence I prefer the calculation of retracing around 62% from ATH, rather than 100%.

Sorry I was a bit inaccurate with my numbers, when writing 25k and 45k, because of their psychological impact.


What I did (approximately):

last cycle highest retrace, to 69% of the ATH in June 2019 (approx. 13.8k)  --> corresponds with 47.6k this cycle

then 16 months price-wise between that and 1/3 of the ATH (approx. 6.3k) --> corresponds with 47.6k and 22.8k this cycle

(I left out the black swan covid crash)


So 25k-45k by my rule of thumb...  
As someone said before, I also don't think it makes much sense to be too exact when comparing the cycles. Especially in Bitcoin, which is a very special animal

But thanks for your work. I appreciate it every time!

and.. I can certainly live with 50k